Racing chat -Wednesday 15th march( chelt day 2 )

[richard-westwood]

Coral cup 

26 runner cavalry ...jeez 

Computer has thrown up .......top 2 

Langer dan   9.0 12/1 

Camprond  8.8 14/1 

Neither is in form tbh so a bit weird but camprond is jp mcmanus ....is it coup time ???.?

I'll try 10pt ew both 

 

[richard-westwood]

Grand annual 

Very very tough race ....need to be careful because irish tend to send one over specifically 

Computer rated 

Third time lucky  8.9 13.5

Before midnight   8.7 30.0 

Global citizen    8.7 20.0 

No confidence because of irish horses but I'll try 5pt wins top 3 for a bit of fun 

 

[kensland]

Kempton.

Single.

6.00. Flowers       9/1......unpl

stk 5.00    rtn 50.00

Cheltenham later ....Mr R Beckett first.

Good luck all.

Edited March 15, 2023 by kensland

[Zilzalian]

With all attention on Cheltenham sometimes it is easy to miss some real nuggets elsewhere and we have one tomorrow night in the 7:30 at Kempton East Asia ridden by Billy Buick has an outstanding chance, this horse was beaten 5 1/2L into second by Manobo at last years Dubai carnival (G3) in an incredible time. Manobo is the 2nd fastest horse over 1m6f i have ever recorded (Arc winner Alpenista being the fastest). Priced up at 7/2 for tomorrows race i fully expect East Asia to win this and then go on to win the final on AW champions day. My only concern and it is a small concern is that it hasn't won on the AW but the 7/2 price offsets that because in my opinion in this class 3 it should be evens or shorter.

Warning since posting- East Asia has taken a walk in the market it is an unbelievable 7/1 as i type, either this horse is "not off" today or it is totally underestimated, I suspect it is the former and cling precariously to the hope that it is the later. It may well be running as "tune up" qualifier for aw finals day. Its best performance was first time up last year so it can run well fresh. It will be very interesting to see how this pans out. Either way it tells you all you need to know about what is wrong with the racing game, the bookies and connections have access to information that the punter does not and that is wrong, if this horse loses today and then wins on finals day it just confirms what we already know and that is we are being treated like mugs.

Edited March 15, 2023 by Zilzalian
update

[Sporting Sam]

Happy valley 1245

G one Excellent

Win

Form 2221-1

Comes here in rich vein of form.

On bare sight we have not seen the best of this runner. Style of running suggests his come from behind style can leave him exposed to traffic issues. But the taking manner of his two recent breakthrough wins mean a change in tactics to front running might leave him clear. If he goes to the front early he may well hold off the field.

Drawn in stall 9 this is the highest draw he'd need to overcome although his back CV shows a just denied run from stall 8 in the past. Ominous name and hopefully he isn't "gone", just yet......

Edited March 15, 2023 by sporting sam

[kensland]

Cheltenham. 

3.30. Beacon Edge      12/1....unpl

5.30. Facile Mode           5/1     3rd

singles & double ew 

stk 6.00      rtn 122.00.

Good luck all. 

Edited March 15, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Newcastle. 

Single 

5.40. Old Smoke        6/1

stk. 5.00       rtn. 35.00

Good luck all. 

 

[jonjo]

Yesterdays gave us 1st, 2nd and 4th in the Supreme, 4th in the Ultima, 1st and 3rd in the Mares and 2nd and 3rd in the Fred Winter, overal though a slght loss in the place markets unless you took early prices.

Some at prices from over the water today: Good luck today everyone, I thinks this is always the hardest day to find winners.

Energumene (FR)	3.30 Cheltenham	6/4
Delta Work (FR)	4.10 Cheltenham	11/8
Galvin (IRE)	4.10 Cheltenham	5/2

 

Champ Kiely (IRE)	1.30 Cheltenham	8/1
Gaelic Warrior (GER)	1.30 Cheltenham	11/2
Good Land (FR)	1.30 Cheltenham	5/1
Impaire Et Passe (FR)	1.30 Cheltenham	15/8
An Epic Song (FR)	2.50 Cheltenham	16/1
Captain Conby (IRE)	2.50 Cheltenham	8/1
Fil Dor (FR)	2.50 Cheltenham	12/1
Grand Roi (FR)	2.50 Cheltenham	66/1
Hms Seahorse (IRE)	2.50 Cheltenham	10/1
Run For Oscar (IRE)	2.50 Cheltenham	8/1
Scaramanga (IRE)	2.50 Cheltenham	50/1
Tax For Max (GER)	2.50 Cheltenham	40/1
A Dream To Share (IRE)	5.30 Cheltenham	7/2
Fun Fun Fun (IRE)	5.30 Cheltenham	13/2
Hands Down (IRE)	6.15 Newcastle	13/2

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by jonjo

[Sporting Sam]

Happy valley 11.15

UW BROTHER 

Each way

Gets the assistance of Matthew Chadwick the in form jockey who has ridden multiple winners recently.

RAGING BLAZE

Win

Won here two runs ago and stepped down in trip latest  and again ran well. Back to this trip holds good chance under capable rider.

I have to also add that Harry Bentley has to be watched on Alloy King at a big starting price. He usually rides big priced winners but has only had one success this month and he may come back to hand at any time. But a watch on this occasion.

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by sporting sam

[Alley Cat Glover]

Today’s 4 to scratch off your win lists after yesterday’s effort

2.50 Sa Fureur 7 places 11/1 ( Not sure how the Irish hurdlers seem so far in front but …)

4.10 Gin on Lime 4 places 14/1 (last selection couldn’t find another at a price)

4.50 Global Citizen 12/1 6 places (Appears in good form, Ben Pauling having a good year hopefully runs well, hopeful rain comes for him also.)

5.30 Western Diego 11/1 5 places (won on soft surely anything could win. How can one trainer run 10!) ( I would want 4 places on his alone)

[MinellaWorksop]

Nice start yesterday of +2.10pts on the favourites doubles.

Here are today's shortlist and scores based on the same formula as yesterday utilising @MCLARKE 's excellent research.

1:30

Impaire Et Passe 9-0 (9)

Hermes Allen 8-1 (7)

2:10

Gerri Colombe 5-0 (5)

Sir Gerhard 7-1 (6)

2:50

Run For Oscar 5-1 (4)

Camprond 4-4 (0)

3:30

Edwardstone 3-2 (1)

Energumene 5-3 (2)

4:10

Delta Work 0-4 (-4)

Galvin 0-3 (-3)

4:50

Dinoblue 6-2 (4)

Andy Dufresne 2-4 (-2)

5:30

A Dream To Share 6-0 (6)

Fact To File 6-1 (5)

 

From this the four I have chosen are:

Impaire Et Passe

A Dream To Share

Sir Gerhard

Run For Oscar

 

Now let's enjoy the action unfold.

[Sporting Sam]

 

Two win bets from two in Hong Kong and both win really well.

The browns advisory.

Cheltenham 
Brits have got a great record in this race and a series of trends eliminates much of the field due to the standard runners have competed at leading up to this race.
Last year fortune played a part when Gordon Elliott’s runner fell at a crucial stage, but luck amounts to pressure which causes errors and a British one – two was the outcome.
Class always outs in this race and through a series of hoops the whole field can be thrown out with the exception of two. (Trends often throw the baby out with the bath water so caution is advised!!)
15 of the last 16 winners of this contest have finished first or second in a Grade 1 or 2 novice chase, the only two to meet this trend are GALLIA DES LITEAUX and GERRI COLOMBE.
The latter is Gordon’s horse and he remains unbeaten which did for the field in yesterday’s opener. He is hard to oppose but at a much bigger price the Skeltons horse has a big opportunity to keep this prize on these shores.

GERRI COLUMBE
Win
GALLIA DES LITEAUX
Each way 

[Steve75]

[Stephen Franklin

American Mike

Gerri Colombe

Sa Fureur

Nube Negra

'Galvin

Andy Duresne

Better Times Ahead

All each w

[The Equaliser]

Lucky 15

1.30 Chelt Good Land 5/1 (1 pt win at 6.2)

2.10 Chelt Gerri Columbe 11/8

2.30 Hunt Odins Quest 4/1

5.30 Chelm A Dream To Share 4/1

1 x L15 = 0.20 = 3.00 = poss return 157.75

Have to come back with other singles later = 4 pts staked so far

[MCLARKE]

NH selection

Huntingdon 3.50

HILLFINCH

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Lucky 15

1.30 Chelt Good Land 5/1 (1 pt win at 6.2)

2.10 Chelt Gerri Columbe 11/8

2.30 Hunt Odins Quest 4/1

5.30 Chelm A Dream To Share 4/1

1 x L15 = 0.20 = 3.00 = poss return 157.75

Have to come back with other singles later = 4 pts staked so far

Suckered in by hype for Good Land, well done to Willie Mullins.  Hats off to Sam Twiston Davies for being the real whacker to beat my selection Gerrie Columbe a fully deserved win

2.30 Hunt Odins Quest 1 pt win at 4.2

4.10 Chelt Snow Leopardess 0.50 ew at 12/1 (4TBP)

4.30 Hunt Big Norm  pt win at 6.2

4.50 Chelt Andy Defresne 1 pt win at 6.4

8 pts staked so far

Add in:

2.50 Chelt Langer Dan 1 pt win at 12.0

5.30 Chelt A Dream To share 1 pt win at 5.8 and Fun Fun Fun 1 pt win at 7.2

Total stakes today = 11 points

 

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by The Equaliser

[Budgie 65]

18 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Suckered in by hype for Good Land, well done to Willie Mullins.  Hats off to Sam Twiston Davies for being the real whacker to beat my selection Gerrie Columbe a fully deserved win

2.30 Hunt Odins Quest 1 pt win at 4.2

4.10 Chelt Snow Leopardess 0.50 ew at 12/1 (4TBP)

4.30 Hunt Big Norm  pt win at 6.2

4.50 Chelt Andy Defresne 1 pt win at 6.4

8 pts staked so far

Add in:

2.50 Chelt Langer Dan 1 pt win at 12.0

5.30 Chelt A Dream To share 1 pt win at 5.8 and Fun Fun Fun 1 pt win at 7.2

Total stakes today = 11 points

i cant get out of gear 1 at cheltemham. Just watching

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Budgie 65

[richard-westwood]

18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Coral cup 

26 runner cavalry ...jeez 

Computer has thrown up .......top 2 

Langer dan   9.0 12/1 

Camprond  8.8 14/1 

Neither is in form tbh so a bit weird but camprond is jp mcmanus ....is it coup time ???.?

I'll try 10pt ew both 

 

1st and 3rd !!.....I'm so chuffed with that rating ..26 runners down to 2 ....bog camprond do will get paid ew at 20/1 ....so far all 3 races I've rated have been won by top rated !!

I think returns ....215.00 ? or thereabouts ?

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

1st and 3rd !!.....I'm so chuffed with that rating ..26 runners down to 2 ....bog camprond do will get paid ew at 20/1 ....so far all 3 races I've rated have been won by top rated !!

I think returns ....215.00 ? or thereabouts ?

Fantastic ratings Richard. For a minute there I was thinking Oh No I've backed the wrong horse as Camprond looked almost a certainty.  Strange how the computer picked them when as you said neither have been in form.  Very well done once again ?

[jonjo]

7 hours ago, jonjo said:

Yesterdays gave us 1st, 2nd and 4th in the Supreme, 4th in the Ultima, 1st and 3rd in the Mares and 2nd and 3rd in the Fred Winter, overal though a slght loss in the place markets unless you took early prices.

Some at prices from over the water today: Good luck today everyone, I thinks this is always the hardest day to find winners.

Energumene (FR)	3.30 Cheltenham	6/4
Delta Work (FR)	4.10 Cheltenham	11/8
Galvin (IRE)	4.10 Cheltenham	5/2

 

Champ Kiely (IRE)	1.30 Cheltenham	8/1
Gaelic Warrior (GER)	1.30 Cheltenham	11/2
Good Land (FR)	1.30 Cheltenham	5/1
Impaire Et Passe (FR)	1.30 Cheltenham	15/8
An Epic Song (FR)	2.50 Cheltenham	16/1
Captain Conby (IRE)	2.50 Cheltenham	8/1
Fil Dor (FR)	2.50 Cheltenham	12/1
Grand Roi (FR)	2.50 Cheltenham	66/1
Hms Seahorse (IRE)	2.50 Cheltenham	10/1
Run For Oscar (IRE)	2.50 Cheltenham	8/1
Scaramanga (IRE)	2.50 Cheltenham	50/1
Tax For Max (GER)	2.50 Cheltenham	40/1
A Dream To Share (IRE)	5.30 Cheltenham	7/2
Fun Fun Fun (IRE)	5.30 Cheltenham	13/2
Hands Down (IRE)	6.15 Newcastle	13/2

 

Not to shabby:

1.30 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th

2.50 2nd 16/1 and 4th at 50/1

3.30 1st

4.10 1st and 2nd

5.30 1st

with 1 to come in the Newcastle race, massive drifter though so looks unlikely.

 

[pa4410]

Hi all , fairly new to betting on horses. What do you mean when you rate your own races/horses. And any help how to do it? 

 

Thank you 

[richard-westwood]

30 minutes ago, pa4410 said:

Hi all , fairly new to betting on horses. What do you mean when you rate your own races/horses. And any help how to do it? 

 

Thank you 

There's so many diff ways you can rate horses ....this link is,a very good read and is very similar to 1 of the ratings I do and an excellent starting point 

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/strategy/horse-racing/

[pa4410]

8 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

There's so many diff ways you can rate horses ....this link is,a very good read and is very similar to 1 of the ratings I do and an excellent starting point 

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/strategy/horse-racing/

Thanks for the reply. 

I'll take a look , thanks 

[azzybear]

if your new to racing pa4410 if you go on gaulstats that will also give you some trends I find this site very helpfull 

[azzybear]

good site for  everybody interested in racing to be honest always find it a good read 

[Zilzalian]

19 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

With all attention on Cheltenham sometimes it is easy to miss some real nuggets elsewhere and we have one tomorrow night in the 7:30 at Kempton East Asia ridden by Billy Buick has an outstanding chance, this horse was beaten 5 1/2L into second by Manobo at last years Dubai carnival (G3) in an incredible time. Manobo is the 2nd fastest horse over 1m6f i have ever recorded (Arc winner Alpenista being the fastest). Priced up at 7/2 for tomorrows race i fully expect East Asia to win this and then go on to win the final on AW champions day. My only concern and it is a small concern is that it hasn't won on the AW but the 7/2 price offsets that because in my opinion in this class 3 it should be evens or shorter.

Warning since posting- East Asia has taken a walk in the market it is an unbelievable 7/1 as i type, either this horse is "not off" today or it is totally underestimated, I suspect it is the former and cling precariously to the hope that it is the later. It may well be running as "tune up" qualifier for aw finals day. Its best performance was first time up last year so it can run well fresh. It will be very interesting to see how this pans out. Either way it tells you all you need to know about what is wrong with the racing game, the bookies and connections have access to information that the punter does not and that is wrong, if this horse loses today and then wins on finals day it just confirms what we already know and that is we are being treated like mugs.

Not sure what to make of that race to be honest. East Asia went from 14/1 in running to 9/4 to fading away. Winner did well off a 638 day absence but in a time 10+ seconds slower than average. On the plus side i pulled 50% of my stake back when i saw the market drift. I never listen to "noise" but i do listen to the market.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, pa4410 said:

Hi all , fairly new to betting on horses. What do you mean when you rate your own races/horses. And any help how to do it? 

 

Thank you 

Well the first thing is relatively simple, how much effort/time are you prepared to work, In my estimation 25 hours per week is the bare minimum.

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Suckered in by hype for Good Land, well done to Willie Mullins.  Hats off to Sam Twiston Davies for being the real whacker to beat my selection Gerrie Columbe a fully deserved win

2.30 Hunt Odins Quest 1 pt win at 4.2

4.10 Chelt Snow Leopardess 0.50 ew at 12/1 (4TBP)

4.30 Hunt Big Norm  pt win at 6.2

4.50 Chelt Andy Defresne 1 pt win at 6.4

8 pts staked so far

Add in:

2.50 Chelt Langer Dan 1 pt win at 12.0

5.30 Chelt A Dream To share 1 pt win at 5.8 and Fun Fun Fun 1 pt win at 7.2

Total stakes today = 11 points

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Two good winners today meant that I ended up with a profit of 9.10.  Many thanks to @richard-westwoodfor highlighting Langer Dan, I chose the Skelton horse over the Hobbs horse but cursed myself for not backing both as Camprond looked all over a winner near the end of the race.  This makes my  MTD +18.19 and my YTD -77.08.  This looks like a first for me being in front at the Cheltenham Festival. Let's hope I can continue to make a profit.

[richard-westwood]

I'm on a watchsee tomorrow because it's been raining here all day so I think chelt will be like a mud hole ....I'll see how the course runs tomorrow before making a decision about Friday.....heavy ground is like chucking money down toilet 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

heavy ground is like chucking money down toilet 

Unless you can find heavy ground specialists