Cheltenham Speciality Bets

[The Brigadier]

There are some interesting speciality bets markets available for the Cheltenham Festival next week and I’ve trawled the bookmakers sites in attempting to find some value amongst it. Here’s my findings.

 

We kick off with the market on the official going at the start of the meeting. For me there’s no way the clerk of the course will allow the meeting to start on good ground (10/1 Hills) and the 100/1 about good to firm to firm should be at least ten times the odds quoted! With horse’s health paramount nowadays the meeting will have to start on good to soft or worse.

Looking back over the past twenty years the official going to start the meeting has mostly been good to soft (9 times including last year) with soft and good both clocking in 5 times and heavy once (2018). The clerk of the course has been putting plenty of water down at Pressburg Park and with a cold snap coming this week the bookmakers have the markets about right with William Hill quoting 2/5 for good to soft. The long range weather forecast using myweather.com suggests we could get as much as 31.4 mm of rain leading up the start of the meeting although I’m afraid weather forecasters are as bad judges as some horse racing tipsters so we’ll have to wait on that!

Hills are quoting 11/4 about soft ground and that may well be the value play here as there’s no way we’ll be starting on good so it maybe worth a small wager on soft at 11/4.

 

SOFT (official going for start of meeting) 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hills

 

Bet365 are betting on the number of the Irish trained winners market and have set their split at 18.5 winners. With 2/5 the price 19 or above and 7/4 18 or below. The last four years (latest first) Ireland have scored 18, 23, 17 & 14 an average of 18 so maybe that’s what Denise and her odds compilers are working on! With Ireland currently having the favourite (or joint fav) in 23 of the 24 races we can surely expect another bumper haul from the Irish. I think they can top 19 winners so maybe the bet365 compilers have got it right and there’s scant value there to my eyes.

 

Bet365 also have betting on the leading owner where they have JP McManus heading their market at 4/7 having been backed in from 5/4 and it’s hard to dispute they’ve got the right favourite with JP holding big chances with the likes of Jonbon, Tekao, Camprond, Gentleman De Mee, Dinoblue, A Dream To Share, Janidil, So Scottish, Comfort Zone, Filey Bay and Impervious whom are all priced in single figures for the Festival with obviously a whole host of other bigger priced horses with claims.

Senod favourites in the betting are the double green silks of Simon Munir and Isaac Souede who have a strong team going next week with their best chances of a winner coming with El Fabiolo (Arkle), Impaire Et Passé (Ballymore) and Blue Lord (Ryanair).

Also worth a mention is Joe Donnelly and his wife Mary whose horses run in the yellow and black check silks. They appear to have bankers in Shiskin in the Ryanair and Gaillard Du Mesnil in the NH Chase. That pair are priced at around the 4/6 and Even money mark and if they can just add the likes of State Man to their tally could be the ones to push JP to the line. Once more I think the bookmakers have this about right with McManus an odds on chance and the most likely winner with so much ammunition to fire next week.

 

Another interesting speciality market is the ‘race with biggest winning distance’. Betfair Sportsbook have priced this up and are going 5/1 the field. Looking back at last year the winner was the Turners Novices’ Chase by default really as Galopin Des Chanp’s last fence fall left Bob Olinger well clear coasting home to win by 40L. There was only four runners in that race so its worth looking for a race where there may not be many runners.

The shortest favourite at the meeting is Constitution Hill who’s winning distance in his short career of five runs have been by 14L, 12L, 22L (last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle), 12L and 17L. A real freak of a horse although State Man may well be the best horse he’s taken on in next week’s Champion Hurdle. With Betfair Sportsbook pricing up the Champion Hurdle at 5/1 that’s where my money would be going obviously to small stakes.

 

CHAMPION HURDLE (race with the biggest winning distance) 1/2 point win @ 5/1 Betfair Sportsbook

[StevieDay1983]

Loved reading that one, @The Brigadier! I'd be interested to see what other specials markets the members have picked up on whilst doing their bet research ahead of the festival. I saw tabloid newspapers were quoting odds on it snowing during the festival. Not sure that will happen with the weather turning this week but could be worth a punt. That's a great shout for the Champion Hurdle being the biggest winning distance.

[The Brigadier]

Soft (11/4 into 2/1) and Heavy now been backed with William Hill with rain forecast 

[The Brigadier]

Hills into 11/10 now so we've got the value - lets hope there plenty of wet stuff over the weekend. ☔