Punters Lounge Cheltenham Trends and Statistics

[MCLARKE]

Over the past few days I have had a trawl of all my Cheltenham and data and have unearthed lots of statistics that will hopefully help us to a profitable festival. These have been broken down into 7 distinct articles which will be published over the next 7 days.

The articles are :-

1. General statistics

2. Genreal statistics 2

3. Favourite statistics

4. Trainer statistics

5. Jockey statistics

6. Handicap statistics

7. Grade 1 statistics

[MCLARKE]

ARTICLE 1

 

The Cheltenham Festival is the centre-piece of the National Hunt racing calendar. The four-day fixture takes place annually in March, it usually coincides with St Patricks Day and is popular with Irish visitors.

The main races of the festival are the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, the Queen Mother Champion Chase on Wednesday, the Stayers Hurdle on Thursday and finally the pinnacle of the meeting, the Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday.

There are several other Group 1 races as well as some highly competitive handicaps.

Bookmakers offer many promotions and offers during the festival which can make it a very profitable experience.

 

I have looked at the statistics for the festival and these are my key conclusions.

Forecast favourites have won 76 out of 249 races and have generated a profit of 40 points at Betfair Starting Price. Second favourites have also proved profitable with 40 wins and a profit of 11 points.

6- and 7-year-old horses have the best record with 127 wins from 1,666 runs and a profit of 108 points.

It is better for the horse to have had a recent run. Those that have had a run in the last 25 days have a record of 39 wins from 767 runs and a profit of 50 points.

Most of the runners have been bred in Ireland. Surprisingly they have managed to generate significant profits with 134 wins from 2,166 runs and a profit of 387 points.

Not surprisingly, given the success of favourites and 2^nd favourites, it is better to side with horses at the top of the markets. Horses with forecast odds of less than 11/1 have a record of 166 wins from 1,079 runs and a profit of 80 points.

The fairer sex has a better record than the gents. Fillies and mares have recorded 33 wins from 410 attempts and a profit of 16 points.

You would expect horses that have won at Cheltenham before to have an advantage. Indeed, they do have a marginally better strike rate, winning 6.4% of their races compared to 5.9% for those without course form. However, this is reflected in the odds available and it is better to side with those without course form, 211 wins from 3,571 runs and a profit of 85 points.

The same logic does not apply to distance winners. They have a record of 83 wins from 1,177 runs and a profit of 98 points.

Avoid beaten favourites. They have recorded just 22 wins from 511 runs and recorded a loss of 282 points.

Horses that last ran at courses in Ireland have an excellent record with 129 wins from 1,336 runs and an outstanding profit of 512 points. Horses that last ran at Cheltenham have a good record with 33 wins from 405 runs and a profit of 97 points.

There will be further statistics in tomorrow's article.

[StevieDay1983]

Great research and statistics provided here, @MCLARKE! A few interesting things to take from this first post. No real surprise in horses that have previously won at Cheltenham being worth backing but it is intriguing to note that beaten favourites clearly being affected by failing to live up to their expectations. I wonder how much of that is down to the horse or the jockey.

[MCLARKE]

ARTICLE 2

 

Continuing from the previous article here are some further Cheltenham statistics to consider.

It would appear logical that previous runs in small fields would not be ideal as a prep run for Cheltenham. The stats show the opposite. Horses that last ran in fields of 7 or less are the ones to support, having recorded 134 wins from 1,819 runs and showing a level stakes profit of 16 points.

This is not the time to be experimenting with new distances. Those horses that are running over the same distance as last time have a record of 83 wins from 1,091 runs and a profit of 340 points.

The starting price of a horse’s previous race can often have an impact in the current race. Horses that appeared 4^th – 7^th in the betting in the previous race have a record of 52 wins from 1,158 runs and a profit of 432 points.

Related to this, horses with a SP between 6/1 and 20/1 in their previous race have recorded 67 wins from 1,415 races with a profit of 292 points.

It is to be expected that most horses will be going up in class, as measured by race value. Those going up in class a large amount struggle, it is best to stick with those whose previous race value was within 20% to 60% of the current value. These horses have produced 88 wins from 1,046 runs and a profit of 159 points.

Good winning form is a bonus. Horses that won their last race by 3 lengths or more have a record of 85 wins from 634 runs and a profit of 34 points.

On a similar angle, horses that are unbeaten in the last 2 years have recorded 25 wins from 125 runs and produced a profit of 29 points.

Horses that were well beaten last time are under-bet. Those that were beaten by more than 17 lengths on their last run have won 31 of their 785 starts with a profit of 182 points.

Form from non-handicaps is better than form from handicaps with 190 wins from 2,520 runs and a profit of 267 points.

Novices perform well. Novices moving up to non-novice level have a record of 26 wins from 336 runs and a profit of 100 points.

Horses moving from stakes to handicaps have a good record with 42 wins from 698 runs and a profit of 270 points.

Punters often disregard poor form last time out and so these horses are under-bet. Horses that had a poor run last time have won 35 from 825 starts with a profit of 96 points.

Horses that have not won in their last 6 starts have recorded 28 wins from 588 starts and recorded a profit of 242 points.

Relatively unexposed horses have a good record. Those horses that have only had 2 or 3 career runs have won 30 from 318 starts and generated a profit of 242 points.

Horses that have raced between 2 and 8 times since their last win have a record of 55 wins from 1,169 runs with a profit of 175 points.

There we have it. 25 separate statistics relating to Cheltenham. Obviously past performance does not guarantee future results but it is often a good guide. There are some big priced winners in there such as It Came to Pass winning the Foxhunter Chase in 2020 at odds of 224/1 on Betfair. Such results can distort the overall statistics but, in my calculations, I have checked that a profit can be made by using proportional staking, in effect that levels out the impact of these large priced winners.

In the next Cheltenham article, I will perform a detailed analysis of the record of favourites at the festival.

[harry_rag]

The words “ magnum opus” spring to mind!

[The Brigadier]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

ARTICLE 2

 

Continuing from the previous article here are some further Cheltenham statistics to consider.

It would appear logical that previous runs in small fields would not be ideal as a prep run for Cheltenham. The stats show the opposite. Horses that last ran in fields of 7 or less are the ones to support, having recorded 134 wins from 1,819 runs and showing a level stakes profit of 16 points.

This is not the time to be experimenting with new distances. Those horses that are running over the same distance as last time have a record of 83 wins from 1,091 runs and a profit of 340 points.

The starting price of a horse’s previous race can often have an impact in the current race. Horses that appeared 4^th – 7^th in the betting in the previous race have a record of 52 wins from 1,158 runs and a profit of 432 points.

Related to this, horses with a SP between 6/1 and 20/1 in their previous race have recorded 67 wins from 1,415 races with a profit of 292 points.

It is to be expected that most horses will be going up in class, as measured by race value. Those going up in class a large amount struggle, it is best to stick with those whose previous race value was within 20% to 60% of the current value. These horses have produced 88 wins from 1,046 runs and a profit of 159 points.

Good winning form is a bonus. Horses that won their last race by 3 lengths or more have a record of 85 wins from 634 runs and a profit of 34 points.

On a similar angle, horses that are unbeaten in the last 2 years have recorded 25 wins from 125 runs and produced a profit of 29 points.

Horses that were well beaten last time are under-bet. Those that were beaten by more than 17 lengths on their last run have won 31 of their 785 starts with a profit of 182 points.

Form from non-handicaps is better than form from handicaps with 190 wins from 2,520 runs and a profit of 267 points.

Novices perform well. Novices moving up to non-novice level have a record of 26 wins from 336 runs and a profit of 100 points.

Horses moving from stakes to handicaps have a good record with 42 wins from 698 runs and a profit of 270 points.

Punters often disregard poor form last time out and so these horses are under-bet. Horses that had a poor run last time have won 35 from 825 starts with a profit of 96 points.

Horses that have not won in their last 6 starts have recorded 28 wins from 588 starts and recorded a profit of 242 points.

Relatively unexposed horses have a good record. Those horses that have only had 2 or 3 career runs have won 30 from 318 starts and generated a profit of 242 points.

Horses that have raced between 2 and 8 times since their last win have a record of 55 wins from 1,169 runs with a profit of 175 points.

There we have it. 25 separate statistics relating to Cheltenham. Obviously past performance does not guarantee future results but it is often a good guide. There are some big priced winners in there such as It Came to Pass winning the Foxhunter Chase in 2020 at odds of 224/1 on Betfair. Such results can distort the overall statistics but, in my calculations, I have checked that a profit can be made by using proportional staking, in effect that levels out the impact of these large priced winners.

In the next Cheltenham article, I will perform a detailed analysis of the record of favourites at the festival.

excellent stuff @MCLARKE some very interesting stats there ?

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

The words “ magnum opus” spring to mind!

The proof will be in the pudding

This is the first time I have gone in to such detail for the festival, I will review afterwards and see whether they have been predictive or the dreaded reversion to the mean appears !

[StevieDay1983]

I'm intrigued by that stat about unexposed horses. That's one of the stats I'll be keen to see how they performed at this year's festival to see if the trend continues. Thanks again, Michael. Brilliant to have so much information in one place. 

[MCLARKE]

ARTICLE 3

As promised, in this article I will perform a detailed analysis of the performance of favourites at the Cheltenham festival.

 

Whilst it is great to bask in the glory of picking a 50/1 winner the reality is that these are few and far between and the losing runs can be long and disheartening. At odds of 50/1 if you make 1,000 bets you are likely to encounter a losing run of 349. You will probably have lost the love for betting long before this losing run comes to an end.

There is nothing to beat the joy of seeing your horse cross the finishing line as the winner and you will get more of these winners if you back the favourite.

As already stated, favourites perform well at the Cheltenham festival. Here are some statistics that will help you identify which favourites to bet on.

Type of race. Hurdles and NH Flat races produce the best profits with 38 wins from 135 runs and a level stakes profit of 41 points at Betfair Starting Price.

Stick to the highest-grade races. Class 1 races have provided 72 winners from 234 runs and a profit of 66 points. With class 2 races there is a loss of 26 points.

Long distance races are best avoided. Races of 3 miles or less have recorded 66 winners from 214 runners and a profit of 54 points.

Younger horses have performed better than their older rivals. Horses aged 8 or less have a record of 69 wins from 230 runners and a profit of 66 points.

Recent winning form is useful. Horses that won their last race have produced 60 winners from 175 runners with a profit of 47 points.

Course winners have a poor record, recording a loss of 10 points.

Horses that were favourite last time out have a very good record with 59 runs from 158 runners and a profit of 51 points.

In particular, horses that started at very short odds (less than 4/5) last time have an exceptional record with 40 wins from 81 runs and a profit of 38 points.

Cheltenham is not the time to change jockeys. Those horses ridden by a different jockey have lost 12 points with just 11 wins from 79 runners.

Horses that won their last race by 3 lengths or more have a good record with 47 winners from 111 runners and a profit of 62 points.

Horses that last ran in a handicap show a loss of 4 points.

Ignore horses that didn’t have a good run last time. My definition of a good run is that the horse finished in the top third of the field last time. Those that didn’t recorded a loss of 15 points with just 6 winners from 45 runs.

Be wary of those horses that haven’t won many of their races. Those horses with less than 3 winners from their last 10 starts show a loss of 20 points with 11 winners from 86 starts.

On a similar theme ignore those horses that haven’t won recently. Those horses that haven’t had a win in the last 72 days have produced a loss of 35 points with 13 wins from 103 runs.

Hopefully these 14 statistics will guide you to finding winning favourites at the Cheltenham festival.

In article 4 I will look at the records of trainers at Cheltenham and see if we can find any profitable angles.

 

[MCLARKE]

ARTICLE 4

In this article I will look at trainer records at the Cheltenham festival.

Over the last 9 years over 374 trainers have attempted to find the holy grail of a Cheltenham festival winner and only 69 of them have experienced the pleasure of being in the winning enclosure.

The problem with this type of analysis is the small sample size so, in an attempt, to overcome this I will limit my analysis to those 5 trainers who have averaged at least 1 win per year.

Trainer	WIN	RUN	PROFIT	AE
W P Mullins	59	492	-74	1.06
G Elliott	31	248	69	1.27
N J Henderson	22	284	-113	0.96
H De Bromhead	15	139	0	1.36
P F Nicholls	13	214	-40	0.94

 

This is the 1^st time I have included the AE ratio in these articles. This is a crucial ratio that I use in all of my analyses and is much more useful than the ROI (return on investment) ratio used in many publications as, whilst it is easy to calculate, it can be distorted by the occasional big priced winner.

The A stands for Actual and is simply the number of winners the trainer has achieved. The E stands for Expected and calculates the expected number of winners based on BSP (which is a very accurate indicator of the horse’s chance of winning).

An AE above 1 indicates that the trainer’s horses have performed better than the market expected.

Therefore, Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls do not make the cut.

Gordon Elliot had a very poor year last year with just 2 winners from 60 runners and whilst he may well return to form, I am minded to leave him out this time.

That leaves Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead.

I will have a more detailed look at Willie Mullins and see which areas he is particularly strong in.

Type of race. It is best to follow his runners in Hurdle and NH Flat races, where his record is 37 wins from 345 runs with an AE of 1.11.

He has a poor record in races at the minimum distance of 2 miles with 12 wins from 98 runs, showing a loss of 28 points and an AE of 0.83.

Despite his stellar reputation his more fancied runners are not over-bet. Backing his horses when they are forecast at 11/4 or shorter would produce 28 wins from 53 runs with a profit of 13 points and an AE of 1.24.

He does particularly well with fillies and mares. They have recorded 14 winners from 97 runners with a profit of 30 points and an AE of 1.14.

Horses that have won their last race perform very well with 44 wins from 218 runs with a profit of 14 points and an AE of 1.16.

Ignore his horses that were beaten favourite last time out. Of 62 runners only 2 have won with a loss of 44 points and an AE of 0.43.

Horses with lots of winning from perform well. Those that have at least 5 wins from their last 10 runs have recorded 23 wins from 78 runs with a profit of 24 points and an AE of 1.22.

Last year was his best yet with 10 winners including 5 of the 7 races on the last day. Let’s hope the momentum continues!

The next article will look at the performance of jockeys at the festival.

[MinellaWorksop]

23 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

He has a poor record in races at the minimum distance of 2 miles with 12 wins from 98 runs, showing a loss of 28 points and an AE of 0.83

Ignore his horses that were beaten favourite last time out. Of 62 runners only 2 have won with a loss of 44 points and an AE of 0.43.

These two points are really interesting and stood out for me. Especially considering Facile Vega's chances in the Festival opener. Be fascinating to see how it plays out.

These articles are superb Michael. Thoroughly enjoying them and are much appreciated.

[MCLARKE]

You are welcome. 

It's not always clear cut though, those 2 points are definite negatives but there are others that are positives.

Type of race. It is best to follow his runners in Hurdle and NH Flat races, where his record is 37 wins from 345 runs with an AE of 1.11.

Backing his horses when they are forecast at 11/4 or shorter would produce 28 wins from 53 runs with a profit of 13 points and an AE of 1.24.

Horses with lots of winning from perform well. Those that have at least 5 wins from their last 10 runs have recorded 23 wins from 78 runs with a profit of 24 points and an AE of 1.22.

The beaten favourite one does stand out though so I don't think I'd be backing him, especially as he was so poor last time.

 

 

 

[MinellaWorksop]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

You are welcome. 

It's not always clear cut though, those 2 points are definite negatives but there are others that are positives.

Type of race. It is best to follow his runners in Hurdle and NH Flat races, where his record is 37 wins from 345 runs with an AE of 1.11.

Backing his horses when they are forecast at 11/4 or shorter would produce 28 wins from 53 runs with a profit of 13 points and an AE of 1.24.

Horses with lots of winning from perform well. Those that have at least 5 wins from their last 10 runs have recorded 23 wins from 78 runs with a profit of 24 points and an AE of 1.22.

The beaten favourite one does stand out though so I don't think I'd be backing him, especially as he was so poor last time.

 

 

 

Yes, fair points made there. He (Facile Vega) basically has three points going for him and two against him depending on which stats we are looking at. So it's definitely wise to look at the whole picture.

I am in agreement with you about the beaten favourite angle. If Facile Vega hacks up I can let it be. However I would feel quite the buffoon if he finishes tailed off last after knowing these stats and I still went ahead and backed him knowing how bad the beaten favourites of Willie Mullins have performed at previous Cheltenham festivals.

It's all a game of opinions mind, so good luck to anyone who does decide to follow the Vega in the Supreme.

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

It's all a game of opinions mind, so good luck to anyone who does decide to follow the Vega in the Supreme.

Indeed it is.

Leonna Mayor has it as her lay bet of week.

Willie Mullins says it is his best bet of the week.

[MCLARKE]

ARTICLE 5

 

Right, on to jockey’s performance at the Cheltenham festival. As with the trainer’s I will restrict the list to those who have averaged at least a winner a year over the past 9 years.

The prizes are shared more equally than is the case with the trainers.

Jockey	WIN	RUN	PROFIT	AE
P Townend	22	141	33	1.11
Ruby Walsh	21	91	-21	1.13
Nico de Boinville	15	91	43	1.73
B J Geraghty	15	100	-0	1.31
D N Russell	15	106	42	1.58
Rachael Blackmore	12	71	18	1.57
J W Kennedy	10	70	41	1.17

 

Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty are now retired so can be discounted. Davy Russell retired at the end of 2022 although a few weeks later he announced that he would come out of retirement to help Gordon Elliot after Jack Kennedy broke his leg. There is therefore a question mark about whether he has the necessary fitness and desire that he would have had in previous years.

This leaves us with just 3, Paul Townend, Nico de Boinville and Rachel Blackmore.

Paul Townend

Paul has done particularly well in large fields, where there are more than 12 runners, he has recorded 12 wins from 87 runs with a profit of 58 points and an AE of 1.52.

He has a better record on younger horses. His record with horses aged 9 or older is 1 win from 24 runs with a loss of 21 points and an AE of 0.25.

Being the top jockey, his more fancied runs tend to be over-bet. Those in the top 3 in the betting have produced 14 wins from 64 runs with a loss of 11 points and an AE of 0.89.

It is better to stick with horses that finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out. Those that didn’t have recorded 2 wins from 48 runs with a loss of 10 points and an AE of 0.61.

Nico de Boinville

He has a poor record over the longer distances (3 miles+) with 2 wins from 29 runs resulting in a loss of 17 points and an AE of 0.95.

It is best to be wary when he is on an outsider. On horses that are not in the top 6 in the betting forecast he has won 1 from 37 with a loss of 8 points and an AE of 0.89.

As with Paul Townend it is better to stick with horses that finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out. Those that didn’t have recorded 1 win from 37 runs with a loss of 8 points and an AE of 0.60.

Rachael Blackmore

She has an excellent record with her more fancied runners. With 1^st and 2^nd favourites she has 9 wins from 16 runs with a profit of 13 points and an AE of 2.01.

Once again it is important for the horse to have performed well last time. Those that didn’t finish in the first 3 last time have recorded 0 wins from 23 attempts.

Her record in handicaps is poor with 1 win from 20 runs and a loss of 14 points. The AE is 0.78.

 

So hopefully we can make some money on horses ridden by Paul Townend, Nico de Boinville and Rachel Blackmore.

 

In the next article I will perform a detailed analysis of the big handicap races at the festival, where most of the big priced winners come from.

[MCLARKE]

ARTICLE 6

 

In this latest article I will look in detail at the big handicaps that take place at the Cheltenham festival. There are usually 2 top class handicaps each day.

There are plenty of angles to look at, here I will highlight my top 10 ranked by total profit achieved. Some of these statistics are a little “left field” so hopefully may be overlooked by the general betting public and therefore offer value.

 

Consistency factor * over the last 2 years. Those horses with a factor between 0.34 and 0.07 have recorded 44 wins from 922 races with a profit of 460 points and an AE of 1.26. The winners include:

JEFF KIDDER – 80/1 SP (BSP 120)

CROCO BAY – 67/1 SP (BSP 180)

COMMANDER OF FLEET 50/1 SP (BSP 53)

 

Number of races since last win. Horses that last won between 2 and 8 races ago have produced 34 wins from 699 races with a profit of 274 points and an AE of 1.25.

Horses that last ran in a non-handicap have a better record than those that ran in a handicap. They produced 42 wins from 698 runs with a profit of 270 points and an AE of 1.18.

A horse should have winning form but not too much! Those horses that have had just 1 win in their last 10 runs have recorded 23 wins from 409 runs with a profit of 264 points and an AE of 1.28.

Horses bred in Ireland have an excellent record with 54 wins from 1,055 runs, a profit of 259 points and an AE of 1.15.

It is advisable to be running over a similar distance. Those running at the same distance or 1 furlong less have a record of 39 wins from 635 runs with a profit of 241 points and an AE of 1.26.

Irish raiders have an excellent record. Horses that last ran in Ireland have produced 39 winners from 519 runs with a profit of 225 points and an AE of 1.33.

A recent run is helpful. Horses that last ran less than 26 days ago have recorded 25 wins from 411 runs with a profit of 193 points and an impressive AE of 1.50.

It is best to avoid beaten favourites. They have a very poor record with 8 wins from 235 runs and a loss of 126 points. The AE is only 0.63.

Distance winners have performed well. They have provided 34 wins from 550 runs with a profit of 117 points and an AE of 1.28.

 

* This calculation allocates points based on finishing position, 6 for 1^st place, 2 for 2^nd place and 1 for 3^rd place. The total is then divided by the maximum number of points available. Thus, an unbeaten horse would achieve a factor of 1, a horse that had never been in the first 3 places would achieve a factor of 0.

 

In the final Cheltenham article, I will look at the statistics for the Grade 1 races.

[MCLARKE]

ARTICLE 7

 

For the final article I am looking at the best quality races at the festival, the grade 1 events. There are normally 13 of these races, including the Gold Cup, the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Chase and the Stayers Hurdle.

The ideal age is 6 or 7. This age group has won 66 races from 652 attempts with a profit of 236 points and an AE of 1.16. The winners include:

MINELLA INDO – 50/1 (BSP 141)

LISNAGAR OSCAR – 50/1 (BSP 120)

The horse should be carrying a similar weight to last time. This should be no more than 7lbs higher and no less than 2lbs lower. The record of these horses is 83 wins from 925 runs with a profit of 175 points and an AE of 1.13.

The ideal rest period for the horse is 29 to 80 days. These horses have won 96 times from 981 runs with a profit of 136 points and an AE of 1.11.

Those horses running on the same going as last time have the best record with 29 wins from 289 runs. The profit is 97 points and the AE is 1.37.

Days since last win. 31 to 39 is the best range. The result is 28 wins from 122 runs with a profit of 83 points and a very impressive AE of 1.70.

Lots of winning form is a good indicator. Those horses that have won at least 4 out of their last 6 races have a record of 45 wins from 205 runs with a profit of 50 points and an AE of 1.11.

Consistency factor over the last 2 years. Those in the range 0.54 to 0.63 have the best record with 25 wins from 195 runs. The profit is 35 points and the AE is 1.46.

Forecast favourites have an excellent record. They have won 46 times from 116 attempts with a profit of 35 points and an AE of 1.24.

In the same vein the best odds range is 6/4 to 3/1. The record of these horses is 28 wins from 80 runs with a profit of 29 points and an AE of 1.37.

Horses that have run well in their last 2 races have performed well with 74 wins from 567 runs. The profit is 81 points with an AE of 1.10.

 

So that concludes my Cheltenham analysis. Obviously, all these trends will not be replicated this Cheltenham but hopefully there are enough hidden nuggets in here to help you achieve a profitable festival, whether you like the odd big priced winner or plenty of shorter priced selections.

Good luck!

[MCLARKE]

On 3/9/2023 at 3:00 PM, StevieDay1983 said:

I'm intrigued by that stat about unexposed horses. That's one of the stats I'll be keen to see how they performed at this year's festival to see if the trend continues. Thanks again, Michael. Brilliant to have so much information in one place. 

I'm just reviewing all the data prior to a similar analysis for the Aintree festival

The unxeposed horses proved very profitable with 5 wins from 44 starts and a profit of 97 points including Premier Magic at BSP of 110