StevieDay1983 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Run over an extended two-and-a-half miles on the old course, this even usually turns into a cavalry charge on the run to the finish line. There are ten hurdles to be jumped and there will likely be a maximum field of twenty-six runners going to post. Dame De Compagnie (2020) was the first favourite to win this race since Xenophon in 2003 so that shows just how hard it is to confidently predict the winner. French bred horses are becoming more popular for this race due to them being more forward in the earlier part of their careers. Eight out of the last ten winners have been priced at 12/1 or bigger and ten of the last thirteen winners had also run at Cheltenham previously. In recent years, horses racing off a mark in the 150’s have been getting placed more and more, however to win you generally need a mark of at least 138. There has never been a successful defence of the prize by any previous winner. In recent years Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last seven winners and no horse older than nine has won this race since Chance Coffey in 1995. The last four winners of this race have all worn headgear of some sort so look out for that and two of the last three winners have been mares. Brandy Love Made her seasonal reappearance at Punchestown a couple of weeks ago and looked as though she was going to have a say in the closing stages before her weight took its toll when third to Queens Brook. She will of course come on for that run and is entitled to run a big race. With a lack of experience around this track though likely to count against her she cannot be recommended despite a drop in grade as she is likely to carry another big weight. Camprond Won a couple of hurdle races around here in 2021 but paid the price following a big win at the Punchestown Festival last season. He has been edging down the ratings ever since and it is worth remembering that he finished fourth behind Commander Of Fleet last year. His form this year has been rather discouraging but has that been the plan all along? The runs over two miles of late are too short for him and he will appreciate the return to this extended two-and-a-half miles. Looks to be in with a shout for Philip Hobbs. HMS Seahorse Finished a good fourth in the Boodles here last season when beaten three-and-a-half lengths by Brazil. Since then he has been sparingly campaigned but won a decent handicap at Navan back in January over a similar sort of trip. He comes here with an impressive profile and Paul Nolan targets his horses purposefully at winnable races. He will bid to become the youngest winner of the race since Aux Ptits Soins back in 2015 and he has to be seriously considered. Haut En Coleurs Has been slow to come to the boil this year and always just seems to find at least one too good. His jumping has not always been the sharpest and he has raced at two previous festivals and has never looked like winning at any stage. He has been chasing for the last two seasons so given his lack of hurdling experience, he is readily passed over. Run For Oscar A really useful dual purpose performer who won good staying handicaps on the flat last year including the Cesarewitch at Newmarket back in October. He was last seen finishing third to Saint Sam in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown back in December, but the form of that race is not really working out. He is another that lacks any previous experience of this track and that has to be a major concern despite his clear talent. Three Card Brag Hard not to be impressed with his twelve length win over Spanish Harlem last time out but he is still relatively inexperienced. He has never been to Cheltenham before and that gained experience has proved so vital here in the past. Not entirely sure that he will run here as he is also in the Albert Bartlett and the Martin Pipe where he would likely hold stronger credentials. He clearly has a touch of class and if he does pop up in this he is likely to run very well without winning. Fil D’Or Got back to winning ways last time out at Gowran Park. The Gordon Elliott trained five-year-old ran a solid race here last season when chasing home Vauban in the Triumph Hurdle. That form is realtively strong but he has already endured a long season. This will be his sixth race of the campaign but he clearly thrives on his racing. There could well be something more fresh lurking in this race but he has to have each way claims here. Ballyadam Has spent a lot of time in the wilderness and hinted at a return to form when last seen chasing home Gaelic Warrior in a good handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival. Whether he has the stamina to see out this extra distance is open to debate, but he is dropping down the ratings at the right time. He was far from disgraced in the County Hurdle here last year when fifth in a big field to State Man and he holds another entry in that race this year again. Hard to recommend here on the basis that there is no evidence he will stay the trip. Good Risk At All A step up to three miles was not what the doctor ordered for this fella at Haydock last time out. The last two times he has competed in handicaps in and around this trip, he has won them decisively. Although not seen since November, he has an ability to go well fresh and Sam Thomas is proving particularly good at placing his horses. Good Risk At All won a bumper here in 2020 and nay experience is an asset at this track. A lively each way contender on that basis. Red Risk Has been in great form recently and picked up a decent prize ar Newbury back in November. Since then he chased home West Balboa in the Lanzarote at Kempton back in January and has been kept fresh for this. The biggest fear is that most of his form has come on flatter tracks and whether he can get up this steep uphill climb at the end is open to interpretation. Paul Nicholls has won this race before though so ought to know what it takes. Beacon Edge Very well handicapped based on the best of his form and has reverted to hurdling this season with this likely to be his main aim. A solid third in the Boyne Hurdle last time he beat off some tough opposition. He has been over for two previous festivals and his best run came when fourth to Flooring Porter in the Stayers Hurdle a couple of seasons ago. He seems to travel with fluency and is trying the route capitalised on by Commander Of Fleet and Supasundae in recent years by taking in the Boyne hurdle and winning this race. Hard to ignore and strong each way claims. Summary The undoubted value in the race looks to be Beacon Edge who warmed up for this with a solid effort in the Boyne Hurdle last time out. Horses that have used that race as a stepping stone prior to coming here to win include Commander Of Fleet and Supasundae. Noel Meade has enjoyed the odd festival winner in recent seasons and I can see this nine-year-old travelling sweet as a nut throughout. He looks to be coming into the race in good form and looks solid each way material. There are dangers aplenty though and the younger and less exposed HMS Seahorse could be the one that causes him most problems. Punters Lounge Tip: Beacon Edge @ 20/1 E/W NRNB at bet365 – Click Here To Bet by Karl Hedley @Tumbleweed King Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.