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The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Tips (3:30pm)


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The blue riband race of day one is the Unibet Champion Hurdle run over the minimum trip of 2M 87 yards. A race that has been won by luminaries such as Istabraq, Hurricane Fly and Faugheen in recent years amongst others. Some interesting trends are that 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out whilst 8 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 8 years of age.

The great Irish mare Honeysuckle has won the last two renewals for Henry De Bromhead and Rachel Blackmore but it appears she won’t be back to defend her title having been beaten twice this season and will most likely tackle the Mares Hurdle which is a real shame. In her absence we still have an intriguing race which may well be fought out by Nicky Henderson’s Constitution Hill and Willie Mullin’s State Man both of whom won at the meeting last year. Constitution Hill remains unbeaten under rules and continues to impress with his slick jumping and effortless victories. He’s coasted home from his stablemate (and previous Champion Hurdler herself) Epatante in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle at prohibitive odds and will be very hard to beat under Nice De Boinville. His biggest danger undoubtably will come from the Closutton stables of Willie Mullins and just year’s County Handicap Hurdle winner State Man. He’s won all four starts since including grade ones in Ireland this season at Punchestown and Leopardstown (twice). Rated only 6lb behind Constitution Hill he looks booked for second spot. Mullins also has Vauban entered but he is held on both starts this season by his stable mate State Man and surely can only be playing for a place here.

A small field is likely for the Champion Hurdle but an intriguing match up between the British Constitution Hill and Irish challenger State Man. It has to be the former for me although he is hardly at a price that he can be backed at.

Punters Lounge Tip: Constitution Hill @ 1/3 NR NB at >Paddy Power - Click Here To Bet

by The Brigadier

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  • StevieDay1983 changed the title to The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Tips (3:30pm)
  • 2 weeks later...

UNIBET CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY (GRADE 1) –  3:30PM

The main event on day one attracts some of the best two milers around. It is open to horses aged four and over and the field take in eight hurdles on their way to possible glory. Seven of the last ten winners of the race have been Irish trained and nine of the last ten winners all won on their previous start. Mares have also taken four of the last seven renewals The winner usually comes home well within four minutes, and they are usually well found in the market. Only Espoir D’Allen and Rock On Ruby have won at double figure prices within the past decade.

Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins are the trainers to follow in this race having won the race no fewer than nine times between them. Punjabi, Binocular, Buveur D’Air (2017 & 2018) and Epatante have all scored for the master of Seven Barrows, whilst Hurricane Fly (2011 & 2013), Faugheen and Annie Power have all won for the Closutton based handler. Horses who perform well at Leopardstown and Sandown in their prep races tend to have a better chance of winning this race.

Year

Horse

Age

Trainer

Jockey

2022

Honeysuckle

8

H De Bromhead

R Blackmore

2021

Honeysuckle

7

H De Bromhead

R Blackmore

2020

Epatante

6

N Henderson

B Geraghty

2019

Espoir D’Allen

5

G Cromwell

M Walsh

2018

Buveur D’Air

7

N Henderson

B Geraghty

2017

Buveur D’Air

6

N Henderson

N Fehily

2016

Annie Power

8

W Mullins

R Walsh

2015

Faugheen

7

W Mullins

R Walsh

2014

Jezki

6

J Harrington

B Geraghty

2013

Hurricane Fly

9

W Mullins

R Walsh

2012

Rock On Ruby

7

P Nicholls

N Fehily

 

 

 

CONSTITUTION HILL – NICKY HENDERSON

Was made favourite ever since demolishing a fair field in the Supreme Novices’ last season and has maintained his lofty reputation ever since. Wide margin wins in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdles mean he is very much the one to beat. Nicky Henderson last won this with Epatante back in 2020, but he is a master of winning this race having done so five times since 2009. He is rated six pounds higher than his nearest rival and on all known form ought to take the world of beating.

STATE MAN – WILLIE MULLINS

Another progressive sort who remains undefeated since February 2022. He was a particularly impressive winner of the County Hurdle last season beating the likes of First Street and Colonel Mustard. He is Ireland’s leading hope this year and having beaten the reigning Champion at Leopardstown last time, Willie Mullins will be confident of a huge run. He has six pounds to find with Constitution Hill on official ratings and that could well prove too much.

VAUBAN – WILLIE MULLINS

Has not progressed as you would have imagined this season following his good win here in the Triumph last year. He has been beaten all too easily this year and his jumping has been somewhat sketchy at times. A return to this track may well bring out some further improvement in him but he gives the impression that this sort of company over this sort of trip is too much.

I LIKE TO MOVE IT – NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES

Locally trained runner and he bounced back to form with a demolition of the useful Knappers Hill un the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton back in January. He is a three time course and distance winner but Grade 2 races are probably more to his liking. Others in here just look to be far more consistent and have just that little more class.

JASON THE MILITANT – PHIL KIRBY & JOEL WILLIAMSON

A former Grade 2 winner in his younger days but they sadly seem to be a long and distant memory now. He has been beaten a combined total of sixty lengths in his last four races and as one of the oldest in this line-up, he looks squarely up against it. Realistically he needs to have his sights lowered and he may be able to find a small race in time. Definetley not the force of old and best avoided today.

NOT SO SLEEPY – HUGHIE MORRISON & JONATHAN BURKE

Has been in the doldrums since dead-heating with Epatante in the Fighting Fifth in November 2021. His highlight of the season so far was when finishing third to Run For Oscar in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last autumn. Two spins over hurdles this year have seen a certain regression and he looks completely out of his depth in this company.

ZANAHIYR – GORDON ELLIOTT & DAVY RUSSELL

Has not won a race of any kind since October 2021. Did keep good company last year and was placed in the Champion Hurdle behind Honeysuckle (before subsequently being disqualified). Has looked lifeless in three starts this season and has a serious amount of improvement to find in order to reverse recent form with State Man.

Ante-post Prices

1/3 Constitution Hill, 3/1 State Man, 12/1 Vauban, 20/1 I Like To Move It, 66/1 Zanahiyr, 150/1 Not So Sleepy, 150/1 Jason The Militant

Key Trends

10 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten during the current season

9 of the past 13 winners had run no more than nine times over hurdles

14 of the past 24 winners had won at the festival previously

Summary

CONSTITUTION HILL is hardly the bravest of selections but on all known form that we have seen, he should take a lot of stopping. He has already beaten the likes of Epatante this season and he dismissed her with such ease that it was quite breath-taking. State Man seems to have won a weak Grade One at Leopardstown last time and will need to up his game a little bit more here.

Selection: CONSTITUTION HILL

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The main race on the opening day of the Cheltenham festival is the Champion Hurdle. This is the most prestigious event in the hurdling calendar. It is run over 2 miles and 87 yards and is open to horses aged 4 years or older. Off time is 3.30.

The first Champion Hurdle was run in 1927. The best race was arguably the 1977 running, when Night Nurse beat two other dual Champion Hurdle winners, Sea Pigeon and Monksfield. Dawn Run is the only horse to have won the Champion Hurdle and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

At current prices, this year’s favourite Constitution Hill will be the shortest priced winner in its history, eclipsing Sir Ken who won at 2/5 in 1953.

The leading trainer, with 8 wins, is Nicky Henderson, who trains Constitution Hill.

It is a small field of 7 runners. With such a short-priced favourite there could potentially be value in backing each way.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

The forecast favourite has won 6 of the races with a profit of 5 points at SP and an AE of 1.72.

8 out of 26 runners have had 4 or more wins in their last 6 races with a profit of 11 points and an AE of 1.49. Constitution Hill and State Man pass this test.

Those horses with career starts of between 4 and 10 have recorded 7 wins from 40 runs with a profit of 3 points and an AE of 1.77. 3 horses pass this test, Constitution Hill, State Man and Vauban.

It is difficult to see beyond Constitution Hill, although at 4/11 this will not be for everyone.

For the more adventurous, a small wager on Vauban at 14/1 could provide an interest.

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2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Hills going evens to a tenner stake max as one of their "Epic Odds" offers.

Excellent offer. A pity they shut me down years ago, although I did make over £300 with them so can't complain.

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3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Excellent offer. A pity they shut me down years ago, although I did make over £300 with them so can't complain.

I'm substantially in front with them according to my "lifetime transactions" info yet get hobbled elsewhere when I'm barely in front at all. I sometimes think that some of the firms use a random restrictions generator as part of their account management policy! :eyes

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57 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I'm substantially in front with them according to my "lifetime transactions" info yet get hobbled elsewhere when I'm barely in front at all. I sometimes think that some of the firms use a random restrictions generator as part of their account management policy! :eyes

I think you're right, I'm thousands in front with BET365, Sky and Ladbrokes but PP shut me down even though I was £200 down

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Only hours after the Supreme I started backing Constitution Hill for this

I even got 11/4 about him in a double with Flatline and a 20/1 double with Galopin Des Champs. (Gold Cup)

Since 1960 I have watched Nation Hunt racing and never have I see anything like this horse bar Arkle.

Defeat? Nico will be too busy looking good to even concern himself with it :0)

I think the only hope WPM has is to allow State Man to go on and that could be costly for him.

Nico will most like kick for home 2 out and leave him standing and his exertions may end up costing him second place to the strong finisher I Like to Move it.

Constitution Hill I like to Move it could be worth a forecast interest.

 

 

 

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