Players Championship

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We go straight into the Players Championship. Missing the reigning champion, Neil Robertson. All abit strange really but here is the line up :

Allen vs O'Connor
Brecel vs Lisowski
Carter vs Trump
Milkins vs Ford
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K.Wilson vs Yuelong
Ding vs G.Wilson
Selby vs Murphy
Day vs Wakelin

Ofcourse after a long week and weekend of snooker at the Welsh Open, both Rob Milkins and Shaun Murphy are going to feel tired but to be fair, it's only 2 and half hours down the road from Llandudno to Wolverhampton, and in my opinion, both have half decent draws. The bottom half is particulary open. Day is not playing good enough and so in my mind, the winner of Selby/Murphy probably plays Kyren Wilson in a semi-final. I think they beat him, too. Ding is the one who I have a bit of a feeling about but at 8/1 no thank you!

I think Shaun is worth sticking with. I would go with him and Selby really but 6/1 on Selby is too short right now. His form is abit up and down to say the least. In the top half alot will depend on Mark Allen. He was brilliant other than the loss to Milkins and in all likelyhood it was the knowing that he would win alot of money and how much he needed it. However, again, is 11/2 a good price for him to beat Brecel/Lisowski and then Trump/Milkins and then Selby/Murphy. Debatable.

I can't be touching Brecel or Lisowski and so I want somebody at the top from those other 4. It's hard to know what happens with Milkins in this event. It's so rare that a players goes and wins and then goes and does it again or continues the form. Especially when the player isn't a name at the top of the seeds. I think Tom Ford is worth a chance this week. Made a semi-final of this event back in 2012 and hasn't qualified for it since 2015. His form at the German Masters was good. He beat Kyren Wilson and Jack Lisowski there before going out to eventual champion Ali Carter. If he beats Milkins, who could well be hungover then he will likely face Trump. He has won the last 2 head to heads against Trump and Trump isn't even hitting any form right now.

Part of me wants to add Milkins again purely because nobody in this field screams at me as a likely winner. If I had a gun to my head I would say Allen but I'm going for value as always.

2pts S.Murphy to win Players Championship 12/1 betvictor
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1pt e/w R.Milkins to win Players Championship 33/1 paddypower
1pt e/w T.Ford to win Players Championship 40/1 paddypower
0.5pts e/w C.Wakelin to win Players Championship 80/1 paddypower

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I'm going to have one bet for tonight. Chris Wakelin has been in good form recently. prior to that Shootout win he had qualified for the 6-red World Championship and beat 4 players along the way. Decent players too such as Gary Wilson, Yupeng and Mertens. He won that Shootout and then has won 5 from 7 after that, with a deep run at the German Masters and beating Robertson (lost to Milkins) and then losing out on the Welsh to Gilbert. Gilbert played well in that match though (1 century, 2 50+ breaks in a 4-2 win)

All in all in 2023 he has played 11 matches and won 9. If you count the Shootout it's 18 played and 16 won.

He plays Ryan Day tonight and I'm just not convinced by Days form. Started the year great and got to the last 16 of the European Masters before that elusive ranking win. The British Open. Beating Mark Allen in the final. Since then though it's just gone abit flat. Early exits at the NI Open, COC, UK Championships and even when he has gone abit further he hasn't beaten any players of note. He has also lost to the likes of Zhengyi, Woollaston, Craigie. Out in R1 of the 6-red to Fraser Patrick 6-2, r1 of the German Masters to Michael White and then r1 of the Welsh to Carrington.

The 6/4 on Wakelin looks a good bet. +1.5 is evens knocking about.

4pts Wakelin to beat Day 6/4 paddypower

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adding for abit of fun a winner of each quarter.

Mark Allen Q1
Rob Milkins Q2
K.Wilson Q3
Murphy Q4

0.25pts 95/1 bet365

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I've added Wakelin to the staking plan for this event. Basically after researching the form since the Shootout form. In an open event, if he wins tonight like I expect then he goes to 50s probably.

[charliepie]

Hoping for another good tournie for your bets, strange one without Ronnie/Neil/John/Mark. Carter might be fired up after losing the £150k yesterday:-)

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19 minutes ago, charliepie said:

Hoping for another good tournie for your bets, strange one without Ronnie/Neil/John/Mark. Carter might be fired up after losing the £150k yesterday:-)

Yeah, no doubt and if he is then he could be a real banana skin for trump 

[Torque]

1 hour ago, Fader said:

Yeah, no doubt and if he is then he could be a real banana skin for trump 

He could be a banana skin regardless. Trump is bang out of form and when he's talking about wanting to go home - as he did after getting knocked out last week - that can't be a good sign.

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17 minutes ago, Torque said:

He could be a banana skin regardless. Trump is bang out of form and when he's talking about wanting to go home - as he did after getting knocked out last week - that can't be a good sign.

yeah, one thing about Welsh Open though, he has never won that event and he always bangs on about how he has never done well in it and offers up excuses before he even goes out there. I watched an interview with him prior to his first match and he was saying the same kind of thing. This event is abit different in that he has won this event twice in the last 6 years. You know what it's like, one tournament to another a player is completely different. However, either way, he's no value for me to win the tournament or even a match and I'll still be looking to lay him in all probability.

[Torque]

8 minutes ago, Fader said:

yeah, one thing about Welsh Open though, he has never won that event and he always bangs on about how he has never done well in it and offers up excuses before he even goes out there. I watched an interview with him prior to his first match and he was saying the same kind of thing. This event is abit different in that he has won this event twice in the last 6 years. You know what it's like, one tournament to another a player is completely different. However, either way, he's no value for me to win the tournament or even a match and I'll still be looking to lay him in all probability.

That should work. For me he's vastly overvalued bearing in mind his recent struggles. As you rightly say though, some players seem to chime at particular tournaments so maybe he'll get out of his current funk here. On what I saw last week I can't see it happening - even if he does like the tournament. It's difficult to just turn form on after a poor spell - it usually takes some time to build back up so he might be worth backing a few tournaments from now. It could even be that the Worlds is where it all comes together again, and he could be a good price for that if he doesn't win anything between now and then.

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couple of shots from Wakelin have looked like the Wakelin of old.... which is utter crap.

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really threw that frame away. Should have been 3-2 up. 3-2 down.

[charliepie]

Joe played great tonight but Allen looking pretty flat again, would have been a decent price I reckon?

[Fader]

Yeah, I'm not sure what his price was. It was really a 50/50 with Allen wasn't it? Either he's spurred on or down about the 150k and can't be bothered. That's the number 1 in 1 year ranking out the tournament at the first hurdle. Opens up that top half. Wakelin, back in the bin.

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1pm
K.Wilson vs Yuelong
Selby vs Murphy

7pm
Carter vs Trump
Milkins vs Ford

Could be the claim of the outsider today/tonight. The two single bets that I'll be taking are Murphy to beat Selby and Carter to beat Trump. Murphy is playing some great snooker and although it's going to be a disappointment losing in the final ofcourse, he played well and hit 1 century and 5 50+ breaks in that match. Indeed, he has played well for a while now and Selby just hasn't. Ofcourse Selby could turn up here but Murphy is a match for him even if he does. Carter is worth a bet for me too because a) like we've eluded to, Trumps game isn't peaking right now. Far from it. He has issues with deciding frames alot and the nerves play more of a part this season. Carters confidence must be sky high right now and although he didn't win that 150k bonus, I still think he will come here raring to go.

2.5pts Murphy to beat Selby 11/10 paddypower
2pts Carter to beat Trump 7/4 paddypower
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1pt 4-fold - Yuelong +1.5 frames / Murphy / Carter +1.5 frames / Over 9.5 frames (Milkins vs Ford) 16/1 paddypower
0.5pt 4-fold - Yuelong / Murphy / Carter / Milkins 26/1 bet365

[charliepie]

8 hours ago, Fader said:

Yeah, I'm not sure what his price was. It was really a 50/50 with Allen wasn't it? Either he's spurred on or down about the 150k and can't be bothered. That's the number 1 in 1 year ranking out the tournament at the first hurdle. Opens up that top half. Wakelin, back in the bin.

Think it was in the 9/4-5/2 range.

Murphy did well to ease through fairly comfortably and I think Carter defo has a good shot to beat Judd tonight.

[Fader]

Yeah, fingers crossed with Carter. Murphy was excellent for the majority of the match. Kyren Wilson always plays well when I go against him so maybe I'll back him next round so get rid of him  

Milkins / Murphy final again anybody?? lol

[Fader]

that match was mad. I've never seen anything like it. Trump has lost that fearless side to him. Gets 3 snookers back in a deciding frame and then twice practically feathers a ball out of nerves. He just isn't the same animal at the moment that he used to be but that suits me as it's both bets won today and money back on the accys (which how close were they? ... )

Tomorrow night, a replay of The Milkman vs Carter.

[charliepie]

Well that was tense! Shame that Yuelong let us down but can't complain too much.

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2 minutes ago, charliepie said:

Well that was tense! Shame that Yuelong let us down but can't complain too much.

Yeah, it's money back with pp but I really thought it would come in, the handicap one. Yuelong always let's me down. I should have went treble. 

How harsh that somebody like Carter now plays his next match tomorrow night when the likes of oconnor who played first still hasn't played his second match. 

Murphy / Milkins final still alive lol 

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1pm
Ding vs G.Wilson
Brecel vs Lisowski

7pm
Milkins vs Carter

Three matches today. I'm looking forward to the evening match with Milkins and Carter. I'm not too excited about the Ding match and from a single bet perspective, I'll be leaving that one alone. I will try a treble but my only bet other than that treble is for Lisowski to beat Brecel. They played in the 2021 German Masters last time out and Lisowski won that one 5-2. Luca hasn't made it past the first round in this event once, in 4 attempts, including a 6-1 thrashing from Jimmy Robertson last season. Lisowski has made the Quarter Finals in the last 2 times he has competed here and I just think he wins this one.

6pts Lisowski to beat Brecel 4/6 paddypower
1pt treble - (Over 9.5 frames Ding vs Wilson) / Lisowski (-1.5 handicap) / Over 9.5 frames Milkins vs Carter) 8/1 paddypower

[charliepie]

Typical Jack shot missing the easy red to middle to go 5-5! Ding also should have pulled back to 5-4 to land the over bet but hey-ho, on to tonight's match. It is strange that Joe played first and doesn't play tonight I agree.

[Fader]

Yeah, that surprised me that Brecel won that. I've gone with Carter (-1.5 handicap) tonight and added it to Murphy (-1.5 handicap) tomorrow, too.

[charliepie]

Hendry thinks Carter wins easily tonight, could have been 4-0 at the interval but I think it's gonna be a 6-1 or 6-2 now as Rob seems to have run out of steam after last weeks heroics.

[charliepie]

That was easy-peasy!

[Fader]

Yeah, I think you could tell early on that Milkins wasn't up to it. Carter was always going to have more ambition in that one. Last night pre-match I stuck a few poins e/w on Carter to win the Worlds at 50/1. Not that I think he will win it but he always does well there and he is "trending" at the right time and if he wins this event then that will go to 33s in all likelyhood.

Waiting on Murphy (-1.5 handicap) tonight. It just makes sense to go with it. Murphy is really playing well. We know what he has done recently with the 147 and his final appearence. He also seems to have the right attitude at the moment. Funny enough Day beat Murphy 4-0 the last time they played and actually has won 2 of the last 3 and both of those being 4-0 wins. However, I think Murphys experience here will help him. He's a former winner of this event and if he can get ahead at the first session then that bet should come in.

Afternoon match looks to be a good one. O'Connor takes on Brecel. Both looked really good in the first match. O'Connor hit a 132 aswell as 3 50+ breaks in his win over Allen where as Brecel hit 5 50+ breaks in his 6-4 win over Lisowski. I wonder if the extra time being away from the table will be to Joe's detriment and if Brecel coming straight off the table and into another match will help him. Also we have to take into account that everytime I watch Allen he is at a different speed. One minute he is Un Nooh, the next minute, he is Peter Ebdon. Id favour Brecel in that one.

2pts Brecel (-1.5 handicap) / Murphy (-1.5 handicap) / K.Wilson (-1.5 handicap) 9/2 paddypower

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Murphy just about covers the handicap with a 6-0 win lol. He is looking so good right now.

I've had a 20/1 e/w bet on Murphy for the Worlds. I don't think that price will stay 20s if  he wins this event.

[Fader]

also on the side note with the worlds, as it's always good to start looking around now for antepost bets, O'Connor is 250/1 also.

[charliepie]

Yeah, easy win for Murph and the other match was a tight one. Hope you get some mileage out of those Worlds bets, always good to have an interest at a juicy price. I'll never forget backing Murphy in 2005 @ 200/1 (£5 win bet) as I've mentioned on here before:-)

[Fader]

4 hours ago, charliepie said:

Yeah, easy win for Murph and the other match was a tight one. Hope you get some mileage out of those Worlds bets, always good to have an interest at a juicy price. I'll never forget backing Murphy in 2005 @ 200/1 (£5 win bet) as I've mentioned on here before:-)

crazy to think Murphy would be at 200/1. Lovely. The way he is playing, I'm not sure we'll get better than 20/1. I suppose we still have a few more events like the Tour Championships.

No bet for me today in the first match. Tempted to go with O'Connor tonight in the first semi-final.

[Fader]

I think the safe bet tonight would be to go for Over 9.5 frames. Both players have played really well this week and indeed played well for a good few weeks now. Joe was brilliant in the beating of Luca. He was 5-4 down to win that 6-5. He has won alot of frames this week where he has ground it out. Carter had an easy ride against Milkins but he was massively tested against Trump. I would be suprised if we didn't see a 6-4 at worst.

2.5pts Over 9.5 frames (Carter vs O'Connor) 11/10 paddypower