Racing Chat-Friday 10th February.

[kensland]

Double. 

1.30. Kemp.  Progressive      10/3   1st 

2.50. Bang.  Rewired            2/1       2nd 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited February 10, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Kempton'

Patent.

2.00. Smoking Pigeon          10/3    unpl

3.00.  Killer Kane                   9/4      1st 

4.10.  Name in Lights           7/2

Good luck all.

Edited February 10, 2023 by kensland

[jonjo]

Bangor in the 2.50 I like the look of Hidalgo De Lisle currently around the 6 mark on the exchanges, he was trying to give a whopping 29lb to the winner at Sedgefiled and failed by 8 lengths, that one wass rated 100, now rated 110 after a good run in a Listed event, the 4th home that day was 21 lengths back and is rated at 105 so for Hidalgo to get in here from a mark of 108 for his handicap debut looks very generous to me. Win and place........took 6.2 for this, went off at a Bfsp of 4.81 and WON easily?

Southwell 3.15 race, Melwood Boy is currently around the 3.3 mark, slowly into his stride on debut last time out and still got to within a length of the winner finishing 3rd well clear of the 4th placed horse, the winner that day was an 83 rated horse and given that his nearest market rival tomorrow is rated just 69 (gets 5lb) makes Melwood Boy look worth a bet hoping that the experience on debut did him some good.....Took 3.05 for this, went off at a Bfsp of 2.76 and finished 3rd, didnt go low enough to trade out on.

Kempton in the 3.35 race No No Tango is the choice. He was upped in distance for handicap debut and would have got closer but for being impeded by a faller when looking to challenge, currently 6.2 on the exchanges. Win and place...........took 6 and 2.1 the place.......went off at a Bfsp of 4.9....hit a low of 2.24 in running (layed off at 2.4, stake returned) finished third giving a profit on the place.

Southwell 4.20 where Big Narstie is selected, only ever won once from 17 attempts but runs in a Class 6 for the first time tomorrow, 7 furlongs seems to be his distance and down two grades can win this, trading around the 3.25 mark........3.4 taken, ......went off at a Bfsp of 2.92................and WON ? (layed off here at 1.18.)

Bangor on Dee for the 4.35 where Well Vicky is a worthy favourite, upped in distance for her handicap debut the mare improved a stone and won going away, a penalty shouldnt stop her getting the double up,  I've taken 2.56 for this one............WON comfortably?

 

Good luck tomorrow everyone.

As always I'll be laying off low in running.

Edited February 10, 2023 by jonjo

[Sporting Sam]

❤️ dundalk!!

Bangor 1.20
SECRET INVESTOR 
This looks an ideal opportunity for Paul Nicholls' runner to make a good debut in this hunter chase. He'll go off odds on, so this is more a watch and enjoy affair. He had a prep for this at chepstow in the national trial. His jockey takes three pounds off to help.
Kempton
1.30
IOREN
Win
As a winning pointer, the bare two miles looks very sharp. But has been given a good chance on handicap debut. Will have to go some to win though.

Southwell
1.40
A tough race to call with any number of runners dropping in class or having put up career best last time.
In fact, the shortlist is so big, they are put into a combination tricast.
LYNNS BOY
MEHMO
IMPERIAL KHAN
PHOENIX STAR
LATIN FIVE
Combination tricast 
Hard to find a reason why Mehmo cannot repeat his three lengths win, but he has yet to string two together in 40 runs. Strike rate 10%. Been with three yards but wins only for this trainer. Two Wins at nearly 10 pounds higher.
Likely off to another yard soon to get mark down before returning.
Imperial Khan hit a personal best last time, remains a maiden. Phoenix star and Lynn's boy drop in class. Latin five has obvious claims and could do anything. One of three class droppers, but the antics of his jockey is being imitated now by apprentices at Newcastle and it is impossible to say which of Midgleys' two runners will put their best feet forward here.

MEHMO 
Win
IMPERIAL KHAN
Each way

Dundalk

3.55

OKITA SOUSHI

 

Win

In this rated affair Joseph O'Brien looks to have found a good opportunity to land the spoils.

This runner's last appearance was in the cesarawitch where he finished down the field. But he was also a runner in the ebor.

He follows Earl of Tyrone onto the all weather from that race and he bolted up on his first try on an artificial surface at Kempton the other night on debut for Willie Haggas.

The selection is running off levels here with the best of these yet is rated nearly 20 pounds clear of the nearest rated runner. Also has a third place last year at Royal Ascot and the only question is adaptation to the surface.

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by sporting sam

[Zilzalian]

Yayyyyyyy race day today, I just luuuurve Meydan.

lets go fishing for a winner or two, 2 gets a profit, 3 or more happy days will pay for tomorrow.

200 May Danny win this at a tasty price? Good start, good start 33/1 3rd. would have been even better 1st or 2nd for F/C.

235 Als Camel has got a squeak in this Yayyyy Als Camel wins at 14/1 we are rollin baby WINNER

345 Tadhg got a good tune out Franz Strauss for me a fortnight ago. Franz Strauss is composing me some serious dosh on these bets WINNER

420 Raasel is good enough for this if on song

530 Believe in the Spirit of Light in this race.

1 in the 243 Deauville France Fabre is 3 from 4 in 2023 so we'll have a tickle at the Port of Entry. ah well that one went out the window such is life my friends. now the bugger is 3 from 5 ? 

£5 singles, 10p Lucky 63 20p lucky 31 and a 40p lucky 15. Plus a few forecasts just to waste some more money. ??

Edited February 10, 2023 by Zilzalian

[LEE-GRAYS]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Yayyyyyyy race day today, I just luuuurve Meydan.

lets go fishing for a winner or two, 2 gets a profit, 3 or more happy days will pay for tomorrow.

200 May Danny win this at a tasty price?

235 Als Camel has got a squeak in this

345 Tadhg got a good tune out Franz Strauss for me a fortnight ago.

420 Raasel is good enough for this if on song

530 Believe in the Spirit of Light in this race.

1 in the 243 Deauville France Fabre is 3 from 4 in 2023 so we'll have a tickle at the Port of Entry.

£5 singles, 10p Lucky 63 20p lucky 31 and a 40p lucky 15. Plus a few forecasts just to waste some more money. ??

Wich ones you leaving out on lucky 15 ?

[cannotbebeat]

Southwell 1.40 - Lynns Boy - 11/1 3.15 - Papal Music - 28/1 Bangor-On-Dee 1.50 - Tequila Breeze - 8/1 2.50 - Feel The Pinch - 7/1 3.25 - Crambo - 4/5 Meydan 2.00 - Falling Shadow - 11/8 3.10 - Princeville - 11/2 4.20 - Man Of Promise - 11/4 5.30 - Modern News - 3/1 Kempton 2.00 - Baddesley - 12/1 3.35 - No No Tango - 7/2 Chelmsford City 6.45 - Doves Of Peace - 16/1 7.15 - South Dakota Sioux - 4/1 Good luck all CNBB.

• Reply

Quick Reply

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, jonjo said:

Bangor in the 2.50 I like the look of Hidalgo De Lisle currently around the 5 mark on the exchanges, he was trying to give a whopping 29lb to the winner at Sedgefiled and failed by 8 lengths, that one wass rated 100, now rated 110 after a good run in a Listed event, the 4th home that day was 21 lengths back and is rated at 105 so for Hidalgo to get in here from a mark of 108 for his handicap debut looks very generous to me. 

Southwell 3.15 race, Melwood Boy is currently around the 3.3 mark, slowly into his stride on debut last time out and still got to within a length of the winner finishing 3rd well clear of the 4th placed horse, the winner that day was an 83 rated horse and given that his nearest market rival tomorrow is rated just 69 (gets 5lb) makes Melwood Boy look worth a bet hoping that the experience on debut did him some good.

Kempton in the 3.35 race No No Tango is the choice. He was upped in distance for handicap debut and would have got closer but for being impeded by a faller when looking to challenge, currently 3.95 on the exchanges.

Southwell 4.20 where Big Narstie is selected, only ever won once from 17 attempts but runs in a Class 6 for the first time tomorrow, 7 furlongs seems to be his distance and down two grades can win this, trading around the 3.25 mark.

Bangor on Dee for the 4.35 where Well Vicky is a worthy favourite, upped in distance for her handicap debut the mare improved a stone and won going away, a penalty shouldnt stop her getting the double up,  I've taken 2.56 for this one.

 

Good luck tomorrow everyone.

As always I'll be laying off low in running.

Just as a matter of interest, what sort of price do you lay off in-running?

[jonjo]

Morning, there is no set price for laying off in running. If I back at 5 or 6 or so then my lay off price will be around the 1.4 to 2.18 mark, depending on how confident I am and how the race is panning out, if the fav in that race looks to be running poorly then I'll go for the lower end of the spectrum, if something looks like an abvious winner and mine cant win then I'll happily take a red if need be, better to retrieve half you stake or even a quarter than none at all. If the horse is priced between 2.2 and 3 when I back it the the lay off price will be around the 1.08 to 1.21 mark, often if BF live video is up to speed then I wont lay off if mine looks all over the winner. Of course if I'm out and about and cant be at the PC during racing then the in play lay off bets are placed pre race so cant do anything about them, if I'm at home and watching on BF Live Video then I'll place my lay off price during the race. I use Gruss for firing my bets in.

[MCLARKE]

9 minutes ago, jonjo said:

Morning, there is no set price for laying off in running. If I back at 5 or 6 or so then my lay off price will be around the 1.4 to 2.18 mark, depending on how confident I am and how the race is panning out, if the fav in that race looks to be running poorly then I'll go for the lower end of the spectrum, if something looks like an abvious winner and mine cant win then I'll happily take a red if need be, better to retrieve half you stake or even a quarter than none at all. If the horse is priced between 2.2 and 3 when I back it the the lay off price will be around the 1.08 to 1.21 mark, often if BF live video is up to speed then I wont lay off if mine looks all over the winner. Of course if I'm out and about and cant be at the PC during racing then the in play lay off bets are placed pre race so cant do anything about them, if I'm at home and watching on BF Live Video then I'll place my lay off price during the race. I use Gruss for firing my bets in.

Sounds like hard work !

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selections

10-Feb-23	Bangor-on-Dee	1.20	Secret Investor	4/11
10-Feb-23	Kempton	2.30	Game Winner	1/4

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Yayyyyyyy race day today, I just luuuurve Meydan.

Not a fan of foreign racing but Sky have money back if 2nd or 3rd in the 2.35 so I'll my tenner on the favourite

[jonjo]

14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Sounds like hard work !

Its not hard work really, its just doing due diligence and protecting your stake whenever possible. Doesnt matter if you bet small stakes or large, back or lay a horse for a reason, its then your judgement on what to do with it in running that can decide whether a profit or loss is made. When Betfair Live Video is way behind of course then it does become more difficult and means you have to set up your lay off price pre race.

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, jonjo said:

Its not hard work really, its just doing due diligence and protecting your stake whenever possible. Doesnt matter if you bet small stakes or large, back or lay a horse for a reason, its then your judgement on what to do with it in running that can decide whether a profit or loss is made. When Betfair Live Video is way behind of course then it does become more difficult and means you have to set up your lay off price pre race.

If it works for you then that is all that counts.

Personally I never see the logic of backing a horse to lose when previously you had backed it to win. 

Then again all my bets are based on stats, I am useless at watching / reading a race.

 

[jonjo]

The logic is in the reality that things can go wrong, we've all had last fence fallers I'm sure and horses that have traded to 1.01 and been caught on the line etc, If what you save by laying off and getting your stake back is more than the percentage that you lose because the horse wins then its well worth the effort and pays in the long run. Money is hard to come by, I dont give it away easily. 

[BBBC]

I read this and immeadiately thought of Goshen! It still stings 3 years on ...

30 minutes ago, jonjo said:

The logic is in the reality that things can go wrong, we've all had last fence fallers I'm sure and horses that have traded to 1.01 and been caught on the line etc, If what you save by laying off and getting your stake back is more than the percentage that you lose because the horse wins then its well worth the effort and pays in the long run. Money is hard to come by, I dont give it away easily. 

 

[jonjo]

Indeed BBBC, happens to us all, I seem to get more than my fair share of 1.01 losers, so the lay off bets work for me.

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, jonjo said:

Indeed BBBC, happens to us all, I seem to get more than my fair share of 1.01 losers, so the lay off bets work for me.

Why not lay them all in-running at 1.01 for £100 you only lose a quid when they win and get back £100 when they get chinned

[harry_rag]

29 minutes ago, jonjo said:

The logic is in the reality that things can go wrong, we've all had last fence fallers I'm sure and horses that have traded to 1.01 and been caught on the line etc,

It’s a notion that I’ve wondered about when it comes to selling on the spreads. There are times when I’m looking at, say, a 30 point profit as the clock hits 90 minutes and a couple of extra time goals turns it into a 150 point loss. It would be a lot of work to establish if trading out was a viable strategy, let alone to actually do it on a bet by bet basis. Ultimately I prefer the “fire and forget” approach, move onto finding the next bet rather than managing the previous one.

36 minutes ago, jonjo said:

If what you save by laying off and getting your stake back is more than the percentage that you lose because the horse wins then its well worth the effort and pays in the long run.

That’s obviously the key point. Do you track results so that you know exactly how much extra you win by not just letting your bets run or is it just your belief based on experience that it’s the better way to do it?

[jonjo]

3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

It’s a notion that I’ve wondered about when it comes to selling on the spreads. There are times when I’m looking at, say, a 30 point profit as the clock hits 90 minutes and a couple of extra time goals turns it into a 150 point loss. It would be a lot of work to establish if trading out was a viable strategy, let alone to actually do it on a bet by bet basis. Ultimately I prefer the “fire and forget” approach, move onto finding the next bet rather than managing the previous one.

That’s obviously the key point. Do you track results so that you know exactly how much extra you win by not just letting your bets run or is it just your belief based on experience that it’s the better way to do it?

I do indeed Harry and yes, It works for me and others too. There are other strategies to consider depending on the size of your stake, in some big races if I back at lets say 12, I'll lay half my stake off at 6 and the other half off at 2.8 or thereabouts, there a lots of things we can do on the exchanges, those who dont take advantage of these type of tactics maybe are those who havent yet looked at them? Then of coure you can spread your stake over the field to make a profit regardless of the result (once your second bet is  matched of course) 

[fd1972uk]

Kem 1400 love actually 

Ban 1420 éclair de guye 

Mey 1435 positive impact

Sou 1735 em Jay kay

 

Good luck all.

[harry_rag]

4 minutes ago, jonjo said:

I do indeed Harry and yes, It works for me and others too. There are other strategies to consider depending on the size of your stake, in some big races if I back at lets say 12, I'll lay half my stake off at 6 and the other half off at 2.8 or thereabouts, there a lots of things we can do on the exchanges, those who dont take advantage of these type of tactics maybe are those who havent yet looked at them?

I suppose it comes down to time and inclination. If your betting is profitable anyway and uses up as much time as you’re willing or able to devote to betting then it’s a route you wouldn’t choose to go down. Also there’s a risk of getting it wrong and making results worse rather than better. I guess it’s a specialism that works for some but would be a step too far for many “part time” but profitable punters.

[kroni]

Meydan all e-w

200 - Felix @ 10/1 Bet365  |  Magical Morning @ 28/1 Bet365

235 - Josephino @ 13/2 Bet365  |  Ayr Harbour @ 28/1 Bet365

310 - Noor Bano @ 18/1 Bet365

345 - Ajuste Fiscal @ 12/1 Hills  |  Rakeez @ 20/1 Betfair

420 - Ponntos @ 14/1 Betfair | Acklam Express @ 8/1 Betfair

455 - Mr Raj @ 8/1 Bet365 | Magic Petition @ 25/1 Hills

530 - Danyah @ 10/1 PP  |  Fast Raaj @ 20/1 PP

[jonjo]

Its a good job we are all different Harry ? If your betting is profitable then it is a route that you WOULD go down, in fact its probably the route that makes your betting profitable unless you have a strike rate of 70%+ I suppose. I dont actually know anyone who uses the exchanges seriously and doesnt lay off in running, even if its at 1.01. The joys of diversity?

Edited February 10, 2023 by jonjo

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Not a fan of foreign racing but Sky have money back if 2nd or 3rd in the 2.35 so I'll my tenner on the favourite

37% of my profits are on foreign races and that is mainly because 365 get their prices so wrong on so many occasions, i always back the night before..

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Wich ones you leaving out on lucky 15 ?

shortest prices Lee

[Sporting Sam]

Southwell 2.10

STROXX 

Win 

MOPPS GEM 

Each way

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

27 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

37% of my profits are on foreign races and that is mainly because 365 get their prices so wrong on so many occasions, i always back the night before..

They obviously know as much as I do. I avoid them because I have no stats on them.

[The Equaliser]

Two L15's today (missed some winners earlier, probably blown it now)

2.50 Ban Hildalgo De Lisle 5/1

3.35 Km No No tango 4/1

7.45 Chlm Bond Boy 3/1

8.15 Chlm Channel Packet 11/4

1 x 0.20 L15 = 3 pts poss ret 199.30

-------------------------------------------

3.00 Km Dorking Lad 7/2 (only doubt is the jockey's chase record)

4.20 Sou Back From Dubai 17/2 (was going to put up Big Nasti but didn't want to incurr the wrath of @Zilzalian

5.45 Chlm James Bradley 9/4

6.15 Chlm Fast Style 4/1

1 x 0.20 L15 = 3 pts = poss ret 294.32

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Back soon with Free win Bets

I have opened an account with Sky Bet now for another £30 (but have to bet in £10 segments)

Free singles bets with Betfred.  Used up my Free Bets now with them and will move on to Skybet soon

4.20 Sou Back From Dubai 1 pt at 17/2

4.55 Sou Written Broadcast 1 pt at 7/2

5.25 Sou Piranheer 1 pt at 10/1

8.15 Chlm Channel Packet 1 pt at 11/4

Total stakes = 6 pts the singles are free

---------------------------------------------

All started so well with a winner at 5/1, then nothing.  At least I got 3 x 5/1 odds and had 3.20 pts returned.  Loss limited to 2.80.  MTD = -24.47 and YTD -48.17

 

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

58 minutes ago, jonjo said:

Its a good job we are all different Harry ? If your betting is profitable then it is a route that you WOULD go down, in fact its probably the route that makes your betting profitable unless you have a strike rate of 70%+ I suppose. I dont actually know anyone who uses the exchanges seriously and doesnt lay off in running, even if its at 1.01. The joys of diversity?

Indeed it is. Most of my betting is on the exchanges, I did experiment with laying but worked out I am better off (both money and time wise) by letting the bet roll.