Racing Chat-Wednesday 8th February.

[kensland]

Southwell.

Single.

3.40. Lady Mendoza             9/1    unpl.

Good luck all.

Edited February 8, 2023 by kensland

[PeterDonohoe]

It's got a chance in a seven horse race. But not a dead cert. Risky. 

[The Brigadier]

1 hour ago, PeterDonohoe said:

It's got a chance in a seven horse race. But not a dead cert. Risky. 

Welcome to the forum Peter ?

[DanV89]

6.00 Kempton - Marchetti - 7/1

Drifted a fair bit this morning which is obviously a concern but think he has a decent chance in this. Has run well in handicaps the last twice and now drops into a Classified race. Last run in particular was promising given she was trapped wide all the way around with no cover and then wasn't knocked about at all, still finishing reasonably well only beaten 3 lengths. Good draw tonight and Rossa Ryan booked I think 7/1 is fair enough.

 

6.30 Kempton - Sisters In The Sky - 9/2

Won last time over C & D and did so whilst overcoming a pace bias to the front runners. 2nd, 3rd, 4 & 5th that day were all prominent during the race and Sisters In The Sky was the only one to come from the rear to just nab Satin Snake on the line. Up to a mark of 70 now but I don't think that should be too much of an issue as was a fairly decent 2yo and was running off marks in the 80s at one point.

 

7.00 Kempton - Top Of The Class - 12/1

Taking fitness on trust with this one as hasn't had a run since October but ran fairly well on handicap debut off 68 over 7f, slightly hampered and then the jockey pretty much stopped riding but stayed on okay into 5th beaten 5 lengths. Down into a Class 6, down 3lb and Ryan Sexton 3lb takes off a further 3lbs. 12/1 looks a decent ew price.

[cannotbebeat]

Southwell

3.40 - Chosen Port - 3/1


Kempton

6.00 - Elegant Ellen - 15/8

7.00 - Pacos Pride - 9/2

7.30 - Golden Mayflower - 11/8

Good luck all CNBB.

[Sporting Sam]

Happy valley 11.15

FLYING SILVER 

Win 

Unbeaten over this trip.

Stepped up and had to settle for second very strong chance. Hugh Bowman top class Aussie jockey takes the ride.

BLASTOISE

PLACE

Place. four places.drops into this grade having won off higher marks in grade 3

 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

11.45 Happy valley

Allgreektome 

Has strong claims here.

But TELECOMS SPEED 

LEATHER MASTER 

Both worth small win bets 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Telecoms speed went very close in third at a big price

 

Final Hong Kong selections

 

Happy valley

1215

 

METRO WARRIOR

Front runner untalented, but could get a clear lead in a tactical race

Each way

CALIFORNIA DEEPLY

Win

Very short price but deeply talented runner.

Seems to prefer racing from off the pace which has its problems if unable to get a clear run. Higher draw today should play to his strengths.

Two wins and close up second last time when not clear run.

https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming

Edited February 8, 2023 by sporting sam

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selection

Southwell

4.10

Roger Rarebit

8/11

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Kempton 8.00

SLEEPING LION 

[Sporting Sam]

One more at happy valley

2.50

Figures

9954-020342222252-43458090110

EXCEPTIONAL NICE 

Each way 

Form figures of this runner highlights an exceptional place record and a recent return to form halted by a ten pound hike in the weights.

ENCOUNTERED 

win 

Introduction of silvestre de Souza and headgear has led to a 2/2 record the last twice .

 

 

[The Scientist]

Clarkey gives us Sleeping Lion in the 8.00 at Kempton.

For the first time in my experience the excellent Daily Mirror red type and tipster teams are in total disagreement.

Newsboy Sleeping Lion (Nap): Bouverie Rainbow Dreamer (Nap): Red Spot Earlofthecotswold: SF Earl of Tyrone: F Berkshire Rocco: EW Metier: leaving only Aced it and Solent Gateway friendless. Me ...eh? I will come to the party BERKSHIRE ROCCO.

[jonjo]

Earl Of Tyrone is an interesting Stable Switcher in the 8.00 Kempton, placed in the Ebor last year, around the 4.1 mark..........stayed on well and WON nicely ?

 

Good luck.

Edited February 8, 2023 by jonjo

[kensland]

Kempton. 

Double. 

8.00. .Berkshire Rocca       5/2    2nd 

8.30. Bella Colorossa         11/2    unpl

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by kensland

[The Equaliser]

Ineternet down all day so very late for a punt

7.0 Km (A) Bernadine 4/1                    (B) Fully Deployed 6/1          (C) Martini Lodge 50/1

7.30 Km (A) Rooful 7/4                       (B) Lightship 10/3                 (C) Third Button 12/1

8.00 Km (A) Berkshire Rocco 5/2        (B) Earl Of Tyrone 5/2            (C) Rainbow Dreamer 13/2

8.30 Km (A) Bella Colorosa 5/1          (B) Big Jimbo 2/1                   (C) Persian Wolfe 17/2

A = 0.20 win L15 = 3 pts poss Ret = 138.55         B = 0.10 L15 = 1.5 pts Poss Ret 76.7           C = 0.10 L15 = 1.5 pts Poss ret 6113.60

= 6 pts in Free Bets

------------------------------------------------------

7.30 Km Rooful 3 pts win at 2.88 & 1 pt win on @Trotter's Lightship at 5.6.  I hoe that I don't get stuffed by Amy Murphy's horse

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A double and a couple of winners, though I chose the wrong one with Rooful.  A small profit on the day of 3.17.  My MTD is now -16.35 and YTD is -40.05

I hope that my internet connection remains stable tomorrow.  Does anyone know if I can purchase a back up type router to use a different provider when something goes wrong with my "Sky" network?

Edited February 8, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[harry_rag]

2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Ineternet down all day so very late for a punt

One of our biggest advantages over the bookies is that we don't have to bet on every race/day etc. I'll defer to those with more expertise when it comes to racing but I'd have said that 3 lucky 15s with a selection each from the same races is forcing the pace unnecessarily. I'd have suggested maybe a single L15 or a day off in the circumstances.

I'd also suggest (given that it robs you of the enhanced terms for one winner) using your free bets for singles and staking the L15s with real money.

[The Equaliser]

9 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

One of our biggest advantages over the bookies is that we don't have to bet on every race/day etc. I'll defer to those with more expertise when it comes to racing but I'd have said that 3 lucky 15s with a selection each from the same races is forcing the pace unnecessarily. I'd have suggested maybe a single L15 or a day off in the circumstances.

I'd also suggest (given that it robs you of the enhanced terms for one winner) using your free bets for singles and staking the L15s with real money.

Very well said.  I've had a frustrating day so just wanted a bit of action.  Many thanks

[Zilzalian]

11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very well said.  I've had a frustrating day so just wanted a bit of action.  Many thanks

we have the same evening A) bet except you have played safe in the 8:00 + only you will know why u needed the b) and c) bet because those will dilute any profit, 20p lucky 15 and the 4 singles would have been wiser, bernadine gets u near profit, good luck with the remainder.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Zilzalian

[The Equaliser]

6 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

we have the same evening A) bet except you have played safe in the 8:00 + only you will know why u needed the b) and c) bet

What is your bet in the 8.00 may I ask

[DanV89]

9 hours ago, DanV89 said:

6.00 Kempton - Marchetti - 7/1

Drifted a fair bit this morning which is obviously a concern but think he has a decent chance in this. Has run well in handicaps the last twice and now drops into a Classified race. Last run in particular was promising given she was trapped wide all the way around with no cover and then wasn't knocked about at all, still finishing reasonably well only beaten 3 lengths. Good draw tonight and Rossa Ryan booked I think 7/1 is fair enough.

 

6.30 Kempton - Sisters In The Sky - 9/2

Won last time over C & D and did so whilst overcoming a pace bias to the front runners. 2nd, 3rd, 4 & 5th that day were all prominent during the race and Sisters In The Sky was the only one to come from the rear to just nab Satin Snake on the line. Up to a mark of 70 now but I don't think that should be too much of an issue as was a fairly decent 2yo and was running off marks in the 80s at one point.

 

7.00 Kempton - Top Of The Class - 12/1

Taking fitness on trust with this one as hasn't had a run since October but ran fairly well on handicap debut off 68 over 7f, slightly hampered and then the jockey pretty much stopped riding but stayed on okay into 5th beaten 5 lengths. Down into a Class 6, down 3lb and Ryan Sexton 3lb takes off a further 3lbs. 12/1 looks a decent ew price.

4th, nowhere & 4th. 
 

Frustrating. 

[Zilzalian]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

What is your bet in the 8.00 may I ask

well rooful just got beat the handicapper has got that one it seems but all my numbers say sleeping lion (won this last year) from and should beat the earl and rainbow again for me the unknown is berkshire rocco

[The Equaliser]

2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

well rooful just got beat the handicapper has got that one it seems but all my numbers say sleeping lion (won this last year) from and should beat the earl and rainbow again for me the unknown is berkshire rocco

I hope it does.  Hasn't Michael @MCLARKEchosen this one too?

 

[Zilzalian]

[Zilzalian]

2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I hope it does.  Hasn't Michael @MCLARKEchosen this one too?

 

win lose or draw sleeping lion is very good value at 8/1

[Zilzalian]

51 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

One of our biggest advantages over the bookies is that we don't have to bet on every race/day etc. I'll defer to those with more expertise when it comes to racing but I'd have said that 3 lucky 15s with a selection each from the same races is forcing the pace unnecessarily. I'd have suggested maybe a single L15 or a day off in the circumstances.

I'd also suggest (given that it robs you of the enhanced terms for one winner) using your free bets for singles and staking the L15s with real money.

Sound advice from Harry, and it was free. ?

[The Equaliser]

2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Sound advice from Harry, and it was free. ?

Funny enough I paid for the L15  with Lightship (by mistake on my part so I should get back £1 for that if I get no other winners).  I now only have £7.50 left in Free bets so I shall use that on my singles and pay for the L15's as Harry suggests to get the enhanced terms

[jonjo]

2 hours ago, jonjo said:

Earl Of Tyrone is an interesting Stable Switcher in the 8.00 Kempton, placed in the Ebor last year, around the 4.1 mark.

 

Good luck.

Earl of Tyrone a nice winner ? went off at a Bfsp of 4.44, happy days.

[Zilzalian]

39 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

well rooful just got beat the handicapper has got that one it seems but all my numbers say sleeping lion (won this last year) from and should beat the earl and rainbow again for me the unknown is berkshire rocco

oh dear that cost i a few quid not sure that was the best place to be but it would have struggled to beat the winner anyway. watched the previous years win in same race where probert was always within 4L very different ride he gave sleeping lion this year makes you wonder a bit.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Zilzalian

[Budgie 65]

may i suggest doing yamkees who needs the singles

Edited February 8, 2023 by Budgie 65

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, Budgie 65 said:

may i suggest doing yamkees who needs the singles

He gets triple the odds for 1 winner at betfred double the odds elsewhere. big difference in ur profits v a yankee where you get nothing for 1 winner