Six Nations 2023

[harry_rag]

Might as well give it a dedicated thread even if the spread on likely contributors is set at around 2.5-2.8! 

Here's the Rugby Vision rankings which I tend to have a look at each year. They're very much pro Ireland at the expense of France. The obvious bets flagged if you give any credence to the ratings are Ireland at 13/10 (was 7/5 earlier in the week) and Ireland GS at 3/1. No doubt be some further ramblings and thoughts on some of the games.

	Champion	Grand Slam	Triple Crown	Last
Ireland	62.0%	32.0%	40.9%	<0.1%
England	18.8%	5.8%	9.3%	0.5%
France	11.9%	3.5%	<0.1%	0.3%
Scotland	5.0%	0.9%	5.2%	1.5%
Wales	2.3%	0.6%	2.6%	9.2%
Italy	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	88.7%

[harry_rag]

A few antepost bets that like to varying degress.

>2.5 red cards shown at 5/4 with Lads: Odds against about a line that is odds on generally and I tend to agree it should be. RP think we could see more yellow cards this year given the number of Southern Hemisphere ref's appointed and I think that should be enough for us to get at least one more than the 2 that covered my bet on >1.5 last year.

Ireland to win the Grand Slam at 3/1 with 888: Drifted a bit after I took it, tricky opening fixture away to Wales. Not convinced it was the best decision but I anticipated the price shortening along with the their outright price. Whatever; the money (not much) is down so might as well post it.

Italy to win >0.5 games at 4/1 with Fred and not to finish bottom at 7/2 with Hills: Read an article about Italy's improved form following their victory over Wales last year, their improvement at U20 level and how well they tend to do in the 6N when it's a World Cup year. It convinced me at the time but enthusiasm for the bets has waned. Posted for posterity but my strongest fancy here is the red cards bet.

[harry_rag]

Italy v France: Bruno to score a try at 18/5 with Lads and Capuozzo to score a try at 3/1 with Uni. Sell France hotshots at 54 with SPIN (25 points per try by Tomas Ramos, Damian Penaud, Gael Fickou or Ethan Dumortier).

I expect France to win (but hope Italy do given the bet on them to win at least one game this year) but think they may give France a game, at least for a decent chunk of the 80 minutes. Those two players look a good price to me in the anytime market. Hotshots sell a routine bet for me (you sell hotshots at that price, you make money in the long run, simple as that. Not to say I won't get chinned on any individual bet though but I've got over 1200 sells of RU hotshots under my belt showing over 8000 points profit so I'm long past questioning the wisdom of an individual bet based on anything as irrelevant as stats or form.

[harry_rag]

Capuozzo try and a 4 point profit on the hotshots sell so not too bad. Italy certainly made a game of it compared to what the markets expected.

[MinellaWorksop]

24 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Capuozzo try and a 4 point profit on the hotshots sell so not too bad. Italy certainly made a game of it compared to what the markets expected.

It was a lot closer result indeed. I saw odds this morning and just looking at the odds and not being a follower of Rugby I thought this match would be a no contest. Fingers crossed they can get the one win required mate.

[harry_rag]

U20 action tonight and there are a few sets of hotshots that look overpriced to me. Sold England, Scotland and Ireland at 64, 42 and 45 with SPIN (different players with SX). So that's an aggregate price of 151 with 6 tries or less showing a profit.

[harry_rag]

Made up at 50, 0 and 25 for a profit of 76 x stake.

[harry_rag]

Sold Scotland's hotshots at 39 (Stuart Hogg, Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones and Duhan van der Merwe) and their sub try minutes also at 39.

Both routine bets for me so no great insight brought to bear beyond long term profit (at the risk of some big short term losses). SX have the same hotshots priced at 35-39 but my "true" number based on converting the individual player try minutes quotes is just 30.2. What's not to like about selling something that is "always" overpriced as a matter of course at a price that looks even more wrong than you would expect?

[harry_rag]

Adams try at 2/1 doesn't look bad, maybe better if you can boost with Lads or try the exchange.

I've actually taken 8/1 with Lads for him to score one in the first half and 35/1 to score in both halves so I can always back him "anytime" at the break if he hasn't scored by then!

[harry_rag]

An element of damned if I do/don't but going with the 5/1 Sky Bet offer for a 2nd half try from Adams.

[harry_rag]

Not to be today, Scotland impressive especially in the 2nd half. No joy for Adams, 2 Steyn tries make for an 11 point loss on hotshots and a 71st minute sub try for a 32 point loss on that bet. See what appeals on tomorrow's game.

[harry_rag]

Going with two for Italy again. Sticking with Capuozzo at 3/1 Uni and gone for Menoncello at 4/1 Uni with Bruno not starting this week.

England hotshots would have been a sell at 65 but there's a 3 point arb and I don't trade where an arb exists. I have sold their sub try minutes at 69 though it's not a bet I necessarily "fancy" or would recommend.

I've spotted a couple of other interesting prices but I need to do a bit of due diligence on them to see if they're as good as they look at first glance.

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

I've spotted a couple of other interesting prices but I need to do a bit of due diligence on them to see if they're as good as they look at first glance.

Didn't take long! Prices were for a sub to score last try rather than, as I thought at first, to score anytime.

[harry_rag]

Got a Hills offer for a matched bet (up to £20) so seems a no-brainer to try and find a bet that looks fair at worst with them. Gone for England >39.5 points at 10/11. I expect a high scoring game and England to cover a 20 point handicap just about. Italy staying within 20 points seems more of a threat than England falling short of 40 points so I've gone for that.

Not a bet I'd have added without the freebie inducement so hopefully I don't regret my wanton avarice! 

[harry_rag]

7 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Going with two for Italy again. Sticking with Capuozzo at 3/1 Uni and gone for Menoncello at 4/1 Uni with Bruno not starting this week.

Two tries for Italy but neither of my picks.

7 hours ago, harry_rag said:

England hotshots would have been a sell at 65 but there's a 3 point arb and I don't trade where an arb exists. I have sold their sub try minutes at 69 though it's not a bet I necessarily "fancy" or would recommend.

Shame there was that arb as England hotshots made up at zero. A one point loss on the subs sell.

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Got a Hills offer for a matched bet (up to £20) so seems a no-brainer to try and find a bet that looks fair at worst with them. Gone for England >39.5 points at 10/11. I expect a high scoring game and England to cover a 20 point handicap just about. Italy staying within 20 points seems more of a threat than England falling short of 40 points so I've gone for that.

Italy rallied in the second half, closed the gap and stopped England pulling away. As luck would have it I managed to back the unders line on England’s points by mistake so won the qualifying bet and the freebie which I used on the Portuguese cards bet posted elsewhere. Reasonably encouraging for the prospect of Italy possibly beating Wales!

[MinellaWorksop]

The Italians rallied well in the second half. The game against Wales is going to be the key one like you correctly pointed out. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[harry_rag]

On 2/4/2023 at 2:05 PM, harry_rag said:

A few antepost bets that like to varying degress.

>2.5 red cards shown at 5/4 with Lads: Odds against about a line that is odds on generally and I tend to agree it should be. RP think we could see more yellow cards this year given the number of Southern Hemisphere ref's appointed and I think that should be enough for us to get at least one more than the 2 that covered my bet on >1.5 last year.

Ireland to win the Grand Slam at 3/1 with 888: Drifted a bit after I took it, tricky opening fixture away to Wales. Not convinced it was the best decision but I anticipated the price shortening along with the their outright price. Whatever; the money (not much) is down so might as well post it.

Italy to win >0.5 games at 4/1 with Fred and not to finish bottom at 7/2 with Hills: Read an article about Italy's improved form following their victory over Wales last year, their improvement at U20 level and how well they tend to do in the 6N when it's a World Cup year. It convinced me at the time but enthusiasm for the bets has waned. Posted for posterity but my strongest fancy here is the red cards bet.

Red cards bet was looking ropey until there were 2 in France v Scotland last week, in better shape now with 6 games to go.

Ireland Grand Slam now 1.67 on the exchange. While that seems a bit skinny about them winning both away to Scotland and at home to England the 3/1 looks decent enough now.

Italy are only 11/10 to beat Wales next week which gives a fair indication of each team's tournament after the first 3 rounds.

Makes a nice change for my antepost bets on something to make me look like I vaguely know what I'm talking about. 

[harry_rag]

@Labrador Given your knowledge of the game and the subject of betting on it (the former, certainly, far greater than mine) could you give me a bit of an explanation on what each one of them does (very high level will do) and the threat they tend to pose as tryscorers.

Reason for asking is the increasing trend for SPIN to include the hooker (no. 2 if I'm not mistaken) in their hotshots which, on the one hand, can be a pain for me as it means they rarely have the same quartet as SX but, on the other hand, creates some decent value. Often the price looks too high even if you ascribe the entire front five quote to the hooker when calculating a notional hotshots value. Even if the hooker is the main threat from the 5 players I assume the other 4 add at least a nominal amount to the price.

I suppose what I'm getting at is; is the hooker almost always the most likely try scorer from the front 5 and is it generally the case that the other 4 provide minimal threat?

[Labrador]

The modern day tactic is frequently to kick penalties to touch as near to the opponent's try line as possible. For decades now it has been the custom for the hooker to throw the ball to the resulting lineout. The tactic is then to create a rolling maul from the lineout, and, because the hooker joins at the back of the maul, he is usually the player to whom the ball is smuggled so he has the best opportunity to go over for a try if the rolling maul is successfully nearing the try line. 

If you really fancy a hooker to score, I'd definitely look at fixed odds prices because quite often the entire front row may be subbed after 50/55 minutes. 

If there are set scrums near the opponent's line then I'd be looking at the number 8 checking whether any particular no. 8 tends to get subbed or play the full 80 mins. That can determine whether to play fixed odds or spreads. 

Naturally these are generalisations, and I'm sure you would always check the actual stats of any particular player you are considering to score a try.

 

[harry_rag]

Thanks that makes sense. I can see why hookers feature in the hotshots so often but it does like they are overvalued supporting the notion of the sell being the better option if looking for value.

[harry_rag]

Backed Lowe for a 1st half try at 4/1 with Lads.

Not sure it's as "super" a boost as the same offer was for Van der Merwe earlier but i still think it's just about been boosted into value territory.

So much for the Italy bets, though they definitely outran their odds. Time running out for a red card, 7/1 England standing between Ireland and the Grand Slam.

[MinellaWorksop]

On 3/18/2023 at 3:50 PM, harry_rag said:

Backed Lowe for a 1st half try at 4/1 with Lads.

Not sure it's as "super" a boost as the same offer was for Van der Merwe earlier but i still think it's just about been boosted into value territory.

So much for the Italy bets, though they definitely outran their odds. Time running out for a red card, 7/1 England standing between Ireland and the Grand Slam.

Well done with the red cards and grand slam bets mate.

Even the Italy bet was not far off throughout their 5 game campaign.

[harry_rag]

3 minutes ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Well done with the red cards and grand slam bets mate.

Even the Italy bet was not far off throughout their 5 game campaign.

Cheers. Yeah they were only just odds against v Wales in what was always going to be their best shot at a win. They were still in range of beating Scotland until late on but it never looked likely. They were definitely underrated by those pre tournament prices. Maybe lucky with the red card but Ireland fully deserved to land the GS bet.