Data Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Returning to a method I've mentioned on here some time ago, although for me it has never gone away, just been further developed to squeeze out a better performance. Simply put, examining all a season's league results to date and finding the best fit ratings that would have explained those results. Then apply these to the next set of games. When I first began with this I was minimising the error from previous games of goals scored by each team, the actual results were irrelevant. It worked up to a point, but did not come close to a profit (I use average odds for my profit loss summaries) I've now switched to maximising the number of correct results (HDA) I can elicit by calculating ratings for past results. The best fit can be derived by using a separate rating for home and away performances, unfortunately this does not give the best results when extrapolated. Indeed, a single rating for a team's overall strength, although not fitting past results so well, does do better going forward. When such apparent anomalies occur I can't be alone in digging around for a good reason why this should be. And here is where we can easily fall into the trap of shoe horning a theory to support the findings. I've always considered that teams can have seemingly different fortunes when on the road than their home results would support. But maybe, just maybe, the fixture list may conspire to give easier games at home or away which skew our expectations for certain teams - or is it merely a statistical variance within the tolerances of what can be expected? Anyway, I favoured the single rating for each team because it shows over many seasons to be a superior predictor of future outcomes. Not many midweek games, but a sample nevertheless. I'll endeavour to upload the weekend's predictions sometime on Friday. ScPr 20230131 3.69 3.47 1.99 Ross Cou v Hibernia A 213-248 -24 Cham 20230131 1.95 3.4 4.2 Luton v Cardiff H 297-218 89 Lg 2 20230131 5.28 3.74 1.63 Crewe v Stockpor D 234-247 -3 Lg 2 20230131 2.31 3.14 3.1 Salford v Walsall H 255-261 4 Lg 2 20230131 2.1 3.27 3.46 Carlisle v Barrow H 277-228 59 Conf 20230131 2.79 3.21 2.4 Aldersho v Boreham A 218-271 -43 Conf 20230131 2.22 3.36 2.96 Eastleig v Barnet A 246-282 -26 Conf 20230131 5.07 4.31 1.52 Solihull v Notts Co A 264-285 -11 Conf 20230131 1.41 4.51 6.46 Woking v Torquay H 267-248 29 Conf 20230131 2.43 3.12 2.82 Yeovil v Wealdsto H 260-237 33 ScPr 20230201 2.06 3.22 3.7 Motherwe v St Johns A 201-224 -12 ScPr 20230201 1.95 3.43 3.83 Aberdeen v St Mirre H 254-255 10 ScPr 20230201 1.1 9.36 21.3 Celtic v Livingst H 285-245 51 ScPr 20230201 5.11 4.3 1.57 Hearts v Rangers D 258-272 -3 ScPr 20230201 2.38 3.22 3 Kilmarno v Dundee U A 218-246 -17 Lg 1 20230201 2.4 3.4 2.75 Oxford v Barnsley D 270-280 0 Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 2, 2023 Author Share Posted February 2, 2023 Prem 20230203 1.63 4.05 5.59 Chelsea v Fulham H 255-258 8 2~1 Bund 20230203 4.26 3.92 1.81 Augsburg v Leverkus A 221-246 -15 1~2 Cham 20230203 1.77 3.63 4.64 West Bro v Coventry H 250-244 16 1~0 Conf 20230203 3.05 3.36 2.15 Scnuthor v Barnet A 243-282 -29 0~2 Prem 20230204 1.35 5.16 9.31 Brighton v Bournemo H 284-226 69 2~0 Prem 20230204 1.40 4.77 8.40 Man Unit v Crystal H 283-266 28 1~0 Prem 20230204 4.01 3.81 1.89 Wolves v Liverpoo D 259-271 -1 0~0 Prem 20230204 1.64 3.84 5.81 Newcastl v West Ham H 324-218 117 1~0 Prem 20230204 8.08 4.66 1.42 Everton v Arsenal A 207-310 -92 0~2 Prem 20230204 1.99 3.62 3.81 Aston Vi v Leiceste H 251-230 32 2~1 Prem 20230204 1.89 3.64 4.23 Brentfor v Southamp D 243-256 -2 1~1 Bund 20230204 1.68 4.16 4.80 Dortmund v Freiburg H 264-267 7 1~0 Bund 20230204 1.48 4.62 6.46 Ein Fran v Hertha H 278-235 53 1~0 Bund 20230204 1.99 3.39 4.07 Union Be v Mainz H 256-243 23 2~1 Bund 20230204 1.53 4.62 5.73 M'gladba v Schalke H 261-234 37 3~1 Bund 20230204 3.74 3.74 1.97 FC Koln v RB Leipz A 226-263 -27 1~2 Bund 20230204 2.86 3.62 2.40 Bochum v Hoffenhe H 243-239 14 3~1 ScPr 20230204 2.18 3.20 3.43 Livingst v Kilmarno H 250-249 12 1~0 ScPr 20230204 1.13 8.40 18.04 Rangers v Ross Cou H 282-243 50 1~0 ScPr 20230204 2.73 3.27 2.56 St Mirre v Hibernia H 265-258 18 1~0 ScPr 20230204 2.03 3.45 3.58 Aberdeen v Motherwe H 254-231 34 1~0 ScPr 20230204 1.68 3.89 4.76 Hearts v Dundee U H 261-246 26 1~0 Cham 20230204 4.92 3.77 1.70 Rotherha v Sheffiel A 244-345 -91 0~2 Cham 20230204 3.07 3.17 2.41 Huddersf v QPR H 238-212 36 1~0 Cham 20230204 2.16 3.24 3.51 Hull v Cardiff H 296-218 88 2~1 Cham 20230204 2.26 3.22 3.29 Luton v Stoke H 297-226 81 3~1 Cham 20230204 1.54 4.03 6.28 Middlesb v Blackpoo H 330-230 110 1~0 Cham 20230204 2.09 3.33 3.61 Millwall v Sunderla H 249-257 2 2~0 Cham 20230204 2.43 3.20 3.00 Preston v Bristol H 324-231 103 2~1 Cham 20230204 2.84 3.20 2.55 Reading v Watford A 233-339 -96 0~1 Cham 20230204 1.85 3.54 4.33 Swansea v Birmingh H 258-229 39 1~0 Cham 20230204 2.54 3.32 2.76 Norwich v Burnley H 280-282 8 1~0 Lg 1 20230204 1.50 4.15 6.22 Bolton v Cheltenh H 264-235 39 1~0 Lg 1 20230204 2.18 3.43 3.16 Bristol v Milton K H 261-212 59 1~0 Lg 1 20230204 6.77 4.42 1.44 Cambridg v Ipswich A 242-270 -18 0~2 Lg 1 20230204 1.31 5.08 9.23 Derby v Morecamb H 274-233 51 2~1 Lg 1 20230204 2.36 3.27 2.95 Exeter v Charlton H 247-244 13 3~1 Lg 1 20230204 2.14 3.29 3.35 Fleetwoo v Burton H 229-228 11 2~1 Lg 1 20230204 3.77 3.64 1.90 Forest G v Peterbor A 189-255 -56 1~2 Lg 1 20230204 1.99 3.40 3.65 Oxford v Shrewsbu H 270-260 20 2~1 Lg 1 20230204 2.48 3.25 2.80 Port Val v Wycombe H 251-241 20 1~0 Lg 1 20230204 2.39 3.35 2.85 Portsmou v Barnsley A 258-280 -12 0~1 Lg 1 20230204 1.68 3.72 4.97 Sheffiel v Plymouth D 259-274 -5 2~2 Lg 1 20230204 2.25 3.28 3.14 Accringt v Lincoln H 228-231 7 2~0 Lg 2 20230204 2.57 3.19 2.72 Bradford v Mansfiel H 280-261 29 2~1 Lg 2 20230204 1.63 3.80 5.18 Carlisle v Harrogat H 277-218 69 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 2.55 3.13 2.79 Colchest v Barrow H 217-228 -1 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 3.31 3.26 2.16 Crewe v Grimsby H 234-237 7 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 1.89 3.59 3.84 Doncaste v Hartlepo H 236-229 17 2~1 Lg 2 20230204 1.93 3.37 3.96 Gillingh v Crawley H 246-233 23 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 1.81 3.37 4.52 Leyton O v AFC Wimb A 250-268 -8 1~2 Lg 2 20230204 2.05 3.21 3.68 Northamp v Walsall H 303-261 52 2~1 Lg 2 20230204 1.95 3.36 3.85 Salford v Rochdale H 255-194 71 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 1.73 3.47 4.91 Stockpor v Tranmere H 247-245 12 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 3.19 3.19 2.26 Sutton v Stevenag A 238-266 -18 1~2 Lg 2 20230204 2.54 3.21 2.75 Newport v Swindon A 210-259 -39 0~1 Conf 20230204 1.93 3.68 3.39 Aldersho v Dorking A 218-235 -7 0~1 Conf 20230204 3.10 3.27 2.18 Boreham v Chesterf H 271-273 8 1~0 Conf 20230204 1.92 3.48 3.60 Bromley v Maidenhe H 242-239 13 1~0 Conf 20230204 3.23 3.22 2.14 Eastleig v Woking A 246-267 -11 0~2 Conf 20230204 2.47 3.11 2.76 Oldham v Halifax H 252-228 34 1~0 Conf 20230204 1.98 3.58 3.30 Solihull v Gateshea H 264-197 77 2~1 Conf 20230204 1.55 3.93 5.35 Southend v York H 255-221 44 1~0 Conf 20230204 8.20 5.12 1.30 Torquay v Notts Co A 248-285 -27 1~3 Conf 20230204 2.56 3.41 2.47 Wealdsto v Dag and H 237-233 14 1~0 Conf 20230204 2.07 3.41 3.23 Yeovil v Maidston H 260-200 70 1~0 Conf 20230204 4.30 4.16 1.63 Altrinch v Wrexham A 242-282 -30 0~2 Prem 20230205 4.43 4.13 1.74 Tottenha v Man City H 287-282 16 1~0 Prem 20230205 2.64 3.41 2.69 Nott'm F v Leeds H 238-239 10 1~0 Bund 20230205 2.08 3.72 3.39 Stuttgar v Werder B A 237-257 -10 0~1 Bund 20230205 5.00 4.58 1.60 Wolfsbur v Bayern M A 258-292 -24 0~2 ScPr 20230205 12.27 6.44 1.21 St Johns v Celtic A 214-295 -70 0~1 Cham 20230206 1.96 3.44 3.88 Blackbur v Wigan D 246-261 -5 1~1 The scores to the extreme right are derived from my prediction (HDA) then using the most frequent score from the two teams results this season. They are there as a gesture, not as a serious attempt to make a profit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 The midweek results 31Jan-01 Feb game pred ratings diff outcome AvOdds Ross Cou v Hibernia A 213-248 -24 Luton v Cardiff H 297-218 89 RESULT 1.95 Crewe v Stockpor D 234-247 -3 RESULT 3.74 Salford v Walsall H 255-261 4 RESULT 2.31 Carlisle v Barrow H 277-228 59 RESULT 2.1 Aldersho v Boreham A 218-271 -43 RESULT 2.4 Eastleig v Barnet A 246-282 -26 RESULT 2.96 Solihull v Notts Co A 264-285 -11 RESULT 1.52 Woking v Torquay H 267-248 29 Yeovil v Wealdsto H 260-237 33 Motherwe v St Johns A 201-224 -12 RESULT 3.7 Aberdeen v St Mirre H 254-255 10 Celtic v Livingst H 285-245 51 RESULT 1.1 Hearts v Rangers D 258-272 -3 Kilmarno v Dundee U A 218-246 -17 Oxford v Barnsley D 270-280 0 16 games, returned 21.78 to 1pt level stakes. Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 Despite a 6 out of 6 Sunday & Monday the profit gained served only to reduce the losses suffered during Saturday's car crash of a day. It was a day of many shock results I'm sure will have been reflected among the PL Tipster Competition. The +5.75 profit from the preceding midweek has therefor been eroded down to a less than satisfactory -2.39 Just a few league games midweek as we make an effort to return to the black. Cham 20230207 2.19 3.23 3.46 Blackpoo v Huddersf H 230-238 2 1~0 Lg 1 20230207 1.92 3.48 3.88 Port Val v Accringt H 237-228 19 1~0 Lg 2 20230207 4.08 3.25 1.94 Crewe v Leyton O A 234-271 -27 1~2 Lg 2 20230207 2.84 3.17 2.49 Doncaste v Tranmere A 236-260 -14 0~1 Conf 20230207 2.10 3.34 3.20 Chesterf v Woking H 273-268 15 2~0 Conf 20230207 2.29 3.28 2.90 Halifax v Barnet A 236-282 -36 0~2 Conf 20230207 4.08 3.34 1.84 Maidenhe v Southend H 249-255 4 1~0 Conf 20230207 2.34 3.37 2.74 Oldham v Dag and H 242-244 8 2~0 Conf 20230207 2.93 3.36 2.23 York v Solihull A 231-268 -27 0~2 Prem 20230208 1.48 4.76 6.30 Man Unit v Leeds H 283-239 55 2~1 thecurlyone1 and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Football forecasting can be very frustrating, last night who would have predicted that Leeds with no win in their previous 7 would go 2 up at Old Trafford? Anyhow, the midweek 10 reduced the ongoing return by 0.59. Overall then to date, 99 bets yielding a minus 2.98 return from 45 winners. This outcome has been pretty much as I'd expected. A return to the odds displayed close to break even and a strike rate just below 50%. That is not the bad news it may first appear. Average odds by their nature ensure prices both above and below should be easily available. Alternatively, using exchanges will provide better returns, even with commission taken into account. Having a fixture list where predictions break even at average odds is a far better base line to work from than the bare list. Added to which strike rates close to 50% give a better chance of avoiding those ruinous long losing runs. Beware the false prophets! In order to keep this realistic I gather average odds from OddsPortal. Not fool proof of course, grab them one hour earlier or later and market dynamics have changed, getting more evident as kick off time gets closer. What are not used here are 'best' prices, although many who report on theoretical results do so using 'best' (including now & then in these forums). Best odds are far more volatile than average, added to which are they really ever available? The logistics of maintaining dozens of accounts to gain these odds in the first instance would be overwhelming - but in football betting there are SO many simultaneous start times to cope with as well. Just for interest I replaced my average odds for OddsPortal best odds over the 99 bets. Surprise, surprise it turns a small loss into a small profit (but in my view the cheats way of massaging results) Of course, best odds also reflect prices as they were at the 'off', not the best available in the days leading up to the game. Something for the weekend Sir? (you'd have to be over a certain age to recognise this saying) Bund 20230210 3.69 3.75 1.97 Schalke v Wolfsbur A 234-258 -14 0~2 Cham 20230210 3.63 3.35 2.07 Birmingh v West Bro A 234-260 -16 1~2 Prem 20230211 3.76 3.50 2.04 Crystal v Brighton H 266-244 33 2~1 Prem 20230211 1.93 3.58 4.11 Fulham v Nott'm F H 258-256 13 2~1 Prem 20230211 3.35 3.62 2.14 Leiceste v Tottenha A 230-287 -46 0~1 Prem 20230211 2.95 3.17 2.58 Southamp v Wolves A 226-259 -22 0~1 Prem 20230211 6.48 4.12 1.55 Bournemo v Newcastl A 242-324 -71 0~3 Prem 20230211 3.34 3.31 2.27 West Ham v Chelsea A 208-255 -36 0~2 Prem 20230211 1.41 4.87 7.99 Arsenal v Brentfor H 310-243 78 3~2 Bund 20230211 1.84 3.71 4.30 Freiburg v Stuttgar H 267-237 40 2~0 Bund 20230211 2.98 3.66 2.29 Hoffenhe v Leverkus H 239-246 3 1~0 Bund 20230211 1.81 3.86 4.24 Mainz v Augsburg H 243-221 32 1~0 Bund 20230211 3.97 4.19 1.80 Werder B v Dortmund H 257-264 3 2~0 Bund 20230211 1.73 3.73 5.09 RB Leipz v Union Be H 263-256 17 2~0 Bund 20230211 1.13 9.53 17.49 Bayern M v Bochum H 292-243 59 2~0 Cham 20230211 2.11 3.42 3.43 Blackpoo v Rotherha D 230-244 -4 1~1 Cham 20230211 2.91 3.41 2.37 Bristol v Norwich A 231-260 -19 1~2 Cham 20230211 1.53 4.00 6.44 Burnley v Preston A 282-324 -32 0~1 Cham 20230211 3.43 3.39 2.12 Cardiff v Middlesb A 223-288 -55 1~2 Cham 20230211 2.23 3.37 3.19 Coventry v Luton A 244-297 -43 0~1 Cham 20230211 2.59 3.15 2.83 QPR v Millwall A 212-249 -27 0~1 Cham 20230211 1.88 3.50 4.16 Sheffiel v Swansea H 345-258 97 1~0 Cham 20230211 2.04 3.33 3.72 Stoke v Hull A 226-261 -25 0~1 Cham 20230211 1.88 3.49 4.18 Sunderla v Reading H 261-234 37 2~1 Cham 20230211 1.94 3.45 3.97 Watford v Blackbur H 339-249 100 1~0 Cham 20230211 2.30 3.18 3.26 Wigan v Huddersf H 261-245 26 2~1 Lg 1 20230211 1.52 4.14 5.88 Barnsley v Cambridg H 280-183 107 1~0 Lg 1 20230211 2.48 3.40 2.69 Burton v Exeter A 222-247 -15 0~2 Lg 1 20230211 1.94 3.54 3.69 Charlton v Fleetwoo H 244-229 25 2~1 Lg 1 20230211 2.14 3.28 3.40 Cheltenh v Accringt H 225-228 7 1~0 Lg 1 20230211 2.11 3.34 3.38 Ipswich v Sheffiel H 270-259 21 3~0 Lg 1 20230211 2.22 3.31 3.16 Lincoln v Bristol A 231-261 -20 1~2 Lg 1 20230211 2.47 3.30 2.77 Milton K v Oxford H 212-174 48 1~0 Lg 1 20230211 2.42 3.31 2.81 Morecamb v Forest G H 233-189 54 1~0 Lg 1 20230211 2.22 3.40 3.11 Peterbor v Bolton H 255-264 1 1~0 Lg 1 20230211 1.97 3.53 3.63 Plymouth v Portsmou H 274-258 26 2~1 Lg 1 20230211 2.37 3.12 3.09 Shrewsbu v Port Val H 260-237 33 2~1 Lg 1 20230211 3.28 3.42 2.13 Wycombe v Derby A 241-274 -23 0~1 Lg 2 20230211 2.86 3.16 2.48 AFC Wimb v Carlisle D 258-271 -3 1~1 Lg 2 20230211 2.32 3.07 3.20 Barrow v Newport H 233-216 27 1~0 Lg 2 20230211 2.26 3.20 3.17 Crawley v Crewe D 231-244 -3 0~0 Lg 2 20230211 2.05 3.32 3.57 Grimsby v Colchest H 236-217 29 1~0 Lg 2 20230211 4.02 3.57 1.85 Harrogat v Stockpor A 228-247 -9 0~1 Lg 2 20230211 3.31 3.24 2.18 Hartlepo v Sutton A 229-248 -9 1~2 Lg 2 20230211 1.78 3.54 4.44 Mansfiel v Gillingh H 263-245 28 1~0 Lg 2 20230211 3.68 3.27 2.03 Rochdale v Northamp A 200-303 -93 1~2 Lg 2 20230211 1.79 3.50 4.46 Stevenag v Bradford H 286-280 16 1~0 Lg 2 20230211 2.02 3.37 3.62 Swindon v Doncaste H 259-237 32 3~0 Lg 2 20230211 2.14 3.21 3.42 Tranmere v Salford A 241-275 -24 0~2 Lg 2 20230211 2.51 2.98 2.97 Walsall v Leyton O A 261-290 -19 0~2 Conf 20230211 2.61 3.35 2.46 Dag and v Solihull A 244-264 -10 0~2 Conf 20230211 1.90 3.31 3.85 Woking v Boreham H 267-271 6 1~0 Conf 20230211 1.20 6.15 10.71 Wrexham v Wealdsto H 282-247 45 2~1 Conf 20230211 3.13 3.57 2.04 Chesterf v Notts Co D 273-285 -2 2~2 Prem 20230212 1.24 6.65 12.16 Man City v Aston Vi H 282-251 42 2~1 Prem 20230212 3.96 3.86 1.88 Leeds v Man Unit A 239-283 -33 0~1 Bund 20230212 2.82 3.59 2.41 Hertha v M'gladba A 235-261 -16 0~1 Bund 20230212 2.72 3.56 2.51 FC Koln v Ein Fran A 226-278 -42 1~2 Prem 20230213 1.53 4.38 6.23 Liverpoo v Everton H 251-207 55 1~0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 Little to write home about from that weekend. Only 22 correct results from 59, way below what I'd expect, giving an overall loss of 12.58. Ongoing that leaves account showing 158 bets and -15.56. Undaunted, let's see if the midweek fixtures can do better . . . Cham 20230214 2.30 3.34 3.50 Birmingh v Cardiff H 242-238 14 2~0 Cham 20230214 2.60 3.33 3.00 Coventry v Millwall H 254-256 8 1~0 Cham 20230214 1.87 3.81 4.80 Norwich v Hull A 246-268 -12 0~1 Cham 20230214 2.50 3.35 3.10 QPR v Sunderla H 258-268 0 2~1 Cham 20230214 1.70 4.00 5.60 Burnley v Watford H 284-256 38 3~0 Cham 20230214 2.02 3.45 4.20 Reading v Rotherha H 244-244 10 3~0 Lg 1 20230214 3.73 3.56 2.11 Accringt v Wycombe A 228-261 -23 0~3 Lg 1 20230214 1.69 3.95 5.75 Bolton v Milton K H 281-212 79 1~0 Lg 1 20230214 6.00 4.20 1.60 Bristol v Ipswich A 236-270 -24 0~2 Lg 1 20230214 2.75 3.26 2.85 Cambridg v Cheltenh D 203-215 -2 0~0 Lg 1 20230214 1.42 4.71 8.93 Derby v Lincoln D 256-270 -4 0~0 Lg 1 20230214 2.33 3.30 3.53 Exeter v Shrewsbu D 267-280 -3 1~1 Lg 1 20230214 3.65 3.58 2.18 Fleetwoo v Peterbor A 205-262 -47 1~2 Lg 1 20230214 2.88 3.45 2.58 Forest G v Charlton A 219-284 -55 1~2 Lg 1 20230214 2.51 3.60 2.86 Oxford v Plymouth A 234-286 -42 0~1 Lg 1 20230214 3.54 3.40 2.25 Port Val v Barnsley H 237-239 8 1~0 Lg 1 20230214 1.78 3.85 5.00 Portsmou v Burton H 258-241 27 2~1 Lg 1 20230214 1.32 6.00 14.00 Sheffiel v Morecamb H 280-246 44 1~0 Lg 2 20230214 2.67 3.22 3.00 Bradford v Tranmere H 280-249 41 1~0 Lg 2 20230214 2.23 3.28 3.82 Carlisle v Mansfiel H 281-263 28 1~0 Lg 2 20230214 2.75 3.20 2.88 Colchest v Walsall A 217-261 -34 0~1 Lg 2 20230214 2.38 3.30 3.31 Crewe v Hartlepo H 234-222 22 1~0 Lg 2 20230214 2.30 3.30 3.57 Doncaste v Barrow H 284-229 65 2~1 Lg 2 20230214 2.69 3.14 3.00 Gillingh v Grimsby A 246-267 -11 0~2 Lg 2 20230214 1.67 3.95 6.50 Leyton O v Rochdale H 300-244 66 1~0 Lg 2 20230214 3.15 3.24 2.52 Newport v Stevenag A 212-316 -94 0~1 Lg 2 20230214 1.95 3.40 4.70 Northamp v AFC Wimb H 313-268 55 2~1 Lg 2 20230214 1.93 3.60 4.33 Salford v Harrogat H 255-218 47 1~0 Lg 2 20230214 1.42 5.06 9.00 Stockpor v Crawley H 247-233 24 1~0 Lg 2 20230214 2.28 3.35 3.54 Sutton v Swindon A 238-259 -11 1~2 Conf 20230214 4.50 3.83 1.85 Aldersho v Chesterf A 228-273 -35 1~2 Conf 20230214 2.21 3.60 3.27 Altrinch v Bromley H 249-252 7 2~1 Conf 20230214 2.22 3.45 3.40 Boreham v Solihull H 271-264 17 1~0 Conf 20230214 2.22 3.68 3.20 Dag and v Eastleig H 244-246 8 2~1 Conf 20230214 1.44 5.10 6.40 Notts Co v Barnet H 291-282 19 1~0 Conf 20230214 2.55 3.45 2.85 Oldham v Gateshea H 257-207 60 2~0 Conf 20230214 1.70 3.80 5.42 Southend v Halifax H 255-228 37 1~0 Conf 20230214 1.62 4.20 5.50 Wrexham v Woking H 282-267 25 1~0 Prem 20230215 3.05 3.65 2.51 Arsenal v Man City H 290-282 19 2~1 ScPr 20230215 2.67 3.28 3.00 Motherwe v St Mirre A 231-265 -23 1~2 Cham 20230215 1.90 3.45 4.90 Stoke v Huddersf A 226-245 -9 0~1 Cham 20230215 1.70 4.10 5.30 Swansea v Blackpoo H 257-230 37 2~0 Cham 20230215 2.10 3.52 3.90 Sheffiel v Middlesb H 295-265 40 1~0 Cham 20230215 1.72 3.88 5.60 West Bro v Blackbur H 260-249 21 1~0 Cham 20230215 2.06 3.50 4.14 Bristol v Wigan A 242-261 -9 1~2 Cham 20230215 3.02 3.15 2.68 Preston v Luton A 271-297 -16 0~2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 Yet another poor return midweek of -5.75 from the 46 matches. Ongoing, -21.31 from 204 Looking for a better end result from this weekend. Bund 20230217 2.73 3.75 2.70 Augsburg v Hoffenhe H 221-229 2 1~0 Cham 20230217 2.10 3.34 4.30 Cardiff v Reading A 243-263 -10 0~1 Prem 20230218 2.70 3.65 2.83 Newcastl v Liverpoo H 314-251 73 1~0 Prem 20230218 4.60 3.90 1.87 Aston Vi v Arsenal A 241-300 -49 0~2 Prem 20230218 1.91 3.67 4.75 Brentfor v Crystal H 244-249 5 1~0 Prem 20230218 1.71 4.20 5.60 Brighton v Fulham H 275-278 7 1~0 Prem 20230218 1.40 5.00 10.08 Chelsea v Southamp H 266-216 60 1~0 Prem 20230218 2.55 3.40 3.10 Everton v Leeds H 240-229 21 1~0 Prem 20230218 11.00 5.80 1.35 Nott'm F v Man City A 255-325 -60 0~1 Prem 20230218 1.72 3.93 6.00 Wolves v Bournemo H 256-232 34 1~0 Bund 20230218 3.23 3.63 2.36 Bochum v Freiburg A 237-253 -6 0~2 Bund 20230218 2.50 3.60 3.00 Stuttgar v FC Koln H 231-216 25 2~0 Bund 20230218 3.41 3.76 2.22 Wolfsbur v RB Leipz H 261-253 18 2~0 Bund 20230218 1.64 4.70 5.30 Ein Fran v Werder B H 253-257 6 2~0 Bund 20230218 7.50 6.00 1.43 M'gladba v Bayern M A 231-285 -44 0~2 ScPr 20230218 1.18 8.70 19.00 Celtic v Aberdeen H 295-254 51 2~1 ScPr 20230218 2.34 3.30 3.50 Dundee U v St Johns A 246-264 -8 1~2 ScPr 20230218 1.77 4.00 5.03 Hibernia v Kilmarno H 248-246 12 1~0 ScPr 20230218 9.00 5.15 1.38 Livingst v Rangers A 264-282 -8 1~2 ScPr 20230218 1.95 3.48 4.70 St Mirre v Ross Cou H 245-243 12 1~0 Cham 20230218 3.21 3.40 2.47 Blackpoo v Stoke A 230-255 -15 0~1 Cham 20230218 2.72 3.30 2.87 Huddersf v Birmingh A 245-278 -23 0~1 Cham 20230218 2.20 3.40 3.82 Hull v Preston H 246-221 35 2~1 Cham 20230218 3.55 3.36 2.29 Luton v Burnley H 290-275 25 1~0 Cham 20230218 1.67 4.11 5.80 Middlesb v QPR H 268-243 35 1~0 Cham 20230218 3.52 3.53 2.21 Rotherha v Coventry H 244-254 0 1~0 Cham 20230218 2.10 3.57 3.90 Sunderla v Bristol H 274-243 41 2~1 Cham 20230218 3.82 3.60 2.10 Wigan v Norwich A 221-249 -18 0~1 Cham 20230218 2.83 3.40 2.67 Millwall v Sheffiel A 259-283 -14 0~1 Cham 20230218 2.85 3.50 2.64 Blackbur v Swansea H 284-258 36 2~1 Lg 1 20230218 1.67 4.10 5.70 Plymouth v Fleetwoo H 296-218 88 2~1 Lg 1 20230218 2.49 3.40 3.10 Port Val v Exeter H 237-247 0 1~0 Lg 1 20230218 1.46 4.75 8.40 Sheffiel v Milton K H 259-202 67 1~0 Lg 1 20230218 3.00 3.51 2.45 Wycombe v Bolton A 261-300 -29 1~2 Lg 1 20230218 3.30 3.40 2.37 Accringt v Shrewsbu A 228-260 -22 0~1 Lg 1 20230218 2.31 3.58 3.40 Bristol v Bolton A 231-300 -59 1~2 Lg 1 20230218 3.42 3.50 2.25 Cambridg v Oxford A 193-234 -31 1~2 Lg 1 20230218 3.63 3.40 2.21 Cheltenh v Barnsley A 215-281 -56 0~1 Lg 1 20230218 1.62 4.25 6.00 Derby v Charlton A 256-276 -10 0~1 Lg 1 20230218 1.29 6.00 12.00 Ipswich v Forest G H 270-219 61 1~0 Lg 1 20230218 2.89 3.30 2.70 Lincoln v Portsmou D 247-258 -1 1~1 Lg 1 20230218 4.94 4.05 1.74 Morecamb v Peterbor H 245-255 0 1~0 Lg 2 20230218 2.23 3.40 3.68 Stockpor v Stevenag H 297-276 31 1~0 Lg 2 20230218 2.05 3.40 4.20 Sutton v Doncaste H 248-255 3 2~1 Lg 2 20230218 2.87 3.16 2.82 Tranmere v Mansfiel A 260-291 -21 1~2 Lg 2 20230218 2.38 3.40 3.28 Walsall v Newport H 261-262 9 1~0 Lg 2 20230218 2.06 3.42 4.00 Northamp v Grimsby H 303-234 79 2~1 Lg 2 20230218 1.90 3.61 4.50 AFC Wimb v Hartlepo H 269-233 46 2~0 Lg 2 20230218 2.06 3.50 4.10 Bradford v Barrow H 280-242 48 1~0 Lg 2 20230218 2.08 3.50 4.00 Carlisle v Colchest H 281-250 41 1~0 Lg 2 20230218 2.05 3.51 4.00 Harrogat v Crewe A 228-244 -6 0~1 Lg 2 20230218 1.58 4.20 6.52 Leyton O v Crawley H 270-232 48 1~0 Lg 2 20230218 3.21 3.25 2.48 Rochdale v Gillingh A 204-246 -32 1~2 Lg 2 20230218 2.35 3.52 3.09 Salford v Swindon H 264-258 16 2~0 Conf 20230218 6.70 4.70 1.46 Aldersho v Wrexham A 228-269 -31 1~2 Conf 20230218 3.31 3.42 2.24 Altrinch v Woking A 239-268 -19 1~2 Conf 20230218 1.67 4.30 4.80 Bromley v Dorking H 252-235 27 3~0 Conf 20230218 2.31 3.40 3.30 Eastleig v Maidenhe H 246-249 7 1~0 Conf 20230218 1.95 3.82 3.80 Oldham v Maidston H 241-211 40 3~2 Conf 20230218 3.32 3.62 2.15 Scnuthor v Dag and H 252-244 18 1~0 Conf 20230218 3.95 3.95 1.94 Solihull v Chesterf A 244-273 -19 1~2 Conf 20230218 1.80 3.90 4.75 Southend v Gateshea H 255-207 58 2~0 Conf 20230218 3.20 3.65 2.30 Torquay v Barnet A 226-279 -43 1~3 Conf 20230218 2.46 3.43 2.95 Wealdsto v York H 245-221 34 1~0 Conf 20230218 8.50 4.75 1.42 Yeovil v Notts Co A 260-291 -21 1~2 Conf 20230218 1.90 3.50 4.75 Boreham v Halifax H 279-225 64 1~0 Prem 20230219 1.88 3.90 4.75 Tottenha v West Ham H 277-228 59 1~0 Prem 20230219 1.66 4.50 5.50 Man Unit v Leiceste H 303-260 53 2~1 Bund 20230219 1.37 6.00 9.50 Dortmund v Hertha H 274-238 46 1~0 Bund 20230219 1.88 4.10 4.30 Leverkus v Mainz H 250-242 18 2~0 Bund 20230219 1.64 4.00 6.60 Union Be v Schalke H 256-204 62 2~1 ScPr 20230219 3.29 3.60 2.32 Motherwe v Hearts A 231-259 -18 1~2 Cham 20230220 2.78 3.45 2.75 Watford v West Bro H 289-260 39 2~1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 A weekend that lived up to expectation. 50% strike rate and a positive return. +6.42 from the 73 games with 37 winners and profits from 5 of the 7 leagues processed. Let's see what the midweek games can do for us. Cham 20230221 3.13 3.30 2.53 Millwall v Burnley H 276-279 7 2~0 Cham 20230221 1.75 4.00 5.37 Norwich v Birmingh H 247-196 61 2~1 Cham 20230221 3.80 3.50 2.21 Rotherha v Sunderla A 231-280 -39 0~2 Cham 20230221 2.23 3.44 3.75 Swansea v Stoke H 261-249 22 1~0 Cham 20230221 2.01 3.60 4.02 Blackbur v Blackpoo H 286-227 69 2~1 Lg 1 20230221 3.54 3.45 2.25 Morecamb v Port Val D 255-269 -4 1~1 Lg 1 20230221 2.13 3.50 3.80 Fleetwoo v Cambridg H 270-195 85 1~0 Lg 2 20230221 5.09 3.75 1.78 Rochdale v Stockpor A 199-284 -75 1~2 Lg 2 20230221 1.83 3.62 5.30 Walsall v Crewe H 262-239 33 3~0 Lg 2 20230221 1.94 3.70 4.16 Grimsby v Harrogat H 222-223 9 1~0 Lg 2 20230221 3.50 3.36 2.25 Hartlepo v Newport H 234-177 67 2~0 Conf 20230221 2.17 3.68 3.30 Barnet v Altrinch H 283-250 43 2~0 Conf 20230221 1.55 4.40 6.50 Chesterf v Wealdsto H 274-248 36 2~0 Conf 20230221 2.15 3.77 3.38 Dag and v Aldersho H 244-229 25 1~0 Conf 20230221 2.45 3.72 2.84 Dorking v Torquay H 208-197 21 1~0 Conf 20230221 2.31 3.63 3.27 Gateshea v Oldham A 208-243 -25 1~3 Conf 20230221 2.75 3.45 2.66 Halifax v Solihull H 239-245 4 1~0 Conf 20230221 2.38 3.40 3.41 Maidenhe v Yeovil D 250-261 -1 1~1 Conf 20230221 2.85 3.59 2.53 Maidston v Eastleig A 191-249 -48 0~1 Conf 20230221 1.52 4.50 7.00 Notts Co v Southend H 292-256 46 1~0 Conf 20230221 1.85 3.75 4.50 Woking v Bromley H 259-244 25 1~0 Conf 20230221 1.22 7.50 15.00 Wrexham v Scnuthor H 283-254 39 3~1 Conf 20230221 3.14 3.40 2.48 York v Boreham A 188-272 -74 0~1 harry_rag and Zico10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 And for the weekend . . . Prem 20230224 2.60 3.37 3.21 Fulham v Wolves H 288-256 43 2~1 Bund 20230224 2.16 3.86 3.50 Mainz v M'gladba H 262-231 41 2~1 Prem 20230225 4.90 4.10 1.79 Crystal v Liverpoo H 266-251 26 2~1 Prem 20230225 2.62 3.31 3.06 Everton v Aston Vi H 238-231 18 1~0 Prem 20230225 2.02 3.72 4.10 Leeds v Southamp H 229-213 27 1~0 Prem 20230225 5.01 4.30 1.74 Leiceste v Arsenal A 250-310 -49 0~1 Prem 20230225 1.83 3.70 5.20 West Ham v Nott'm F A 228-255 -16 0~2 Prem 20230225 11.00 6.20 1.35 Bournemo v Man City A 239-336 -86 0~1 Bund 20230225 4.20 4.50 1.82 Hoffenhe v Dortmund A 239-294 -45 1~2 Bund 20230225 1.75 4.30 4.90 RB Leipz v Ein Fran H 273-275 8 3~0 Bund 20230225 2.10 3.81 3.67 Werder B v Bochum H 257-233 34 1~0 Bund 20230225 3.05 3.50 2.52 Schalke v Stuttgar D 224-235 -1 2~2 Bund 20230225 2.43 3.60 3.11 FC Koln v Wolfsbur A 236-258 -12 0~1 Bund 20230225 2.20 3.76 3.47 Hertha v Augsburg H 235-245 0 2~1 ScPr 20230225 2.55 3.30 3.06 Kilmarno v Motherwe H 245-187 69 1~0 ScPr 20230225 2.66 3.22 2.93 Ross Cou v Dundee U A 199-254 -44 0~1 ScPr 20230225 2.94 3.18 2.70 St Johns v St Mirre A 220-261 -30 0~1 ScPr 20230225 1.92 3.70 4.40 Aberdeen v Livingst H 253-246 18 1~0 Cham 20230225 2.48 3.50 3.04 West Bro v Middlesb H 282-269 23 1~0 Cham 20230225 2.30 3.47 3.47 Coventry v Sunderla H 281-280 11 1~0 Cham 20230225 3.20 3.25 2.63 Birmingh v Luton A 209-294 -75 1~2 Cham 20230225 2.40 3.55 3.20 Bristol v Hull H 248-243 15 2~0 Cham 20230225 1.42 5.10 9.00 Burnley v Huddersf H 279-212 77 2~1 Cham 20230225 1.74 3.88 5.20 Norwich v Cardiff H 247-220 37 1~0 Cham 20230225 2.42 3.33 3.35 Preston v Wigan H 258-234 34 2~1 Cham 20230225 2.23 3.40 3.90 QPR v Blackbur A 259-286 -17 0~1 Cham 20230225 2.13 3.66 3.75 Reading v Blackpoo H 260-197 73 2~1 Cham 20230225 1.88 3.76 4.60 Sheffiel v Watford H 281-272 19 2~0 Cham 20230225 2.50 3.20 3.25 Stoke v Millwall A 189-276 -77 0~1 Lg 1 20230225 2.95 3.40 2.60 Barnsley v Derby H 253-260 3 2~0 Lg 1 20230225 1.68 4.05 5.65 Bolton v Port Val H 284-227 67 1~0 Lg 1 20230225 1.85 4.00 4.50 Burton v Accringt A 186-242 -46 0~1 Lg 1 20230225 4.00 3.67 2.01 Charlton v Sheffiel A 258-280 -12 0~1 Lg 1 20230225 1.91 3.55 4.60 Exeter v Cambridg H 210-177 43 1~0 Lg 1 20230225 1.85 3.67 4.75 Fleetwoo v Morecamb H 248-233 25 1~0 Lg 1 20230225 2.90 3.30 2.68 Forest G v Lincoln A 169-270 -91 1~2 Lg 1 20230225 6.75 4.05 1.60 Milton K v Ipswich A 172-270 -88 0~1 Lg 1 20230225 2.06 3.75 3.70 Peterbor v Plymouth A 255-286 -21 0~1 Lg 1 20230225 1.80 3.90 4.80 Portsmou v Cheltenh H 258-229 39 1~0 Lg 1 20230225 2.74 3.30 2.81 Shrewsbu v Wycombe A 220-261 -31 0~1 Lg 1 20230225 1.97 3.92 4.00 Oxford v Bristol A 184-223 -29 1~2 Lg 2 20230225 1.91 3.60 5.07 Stevenag v Tranmere H 275-251 34 1~0 Lg 2 20230225 1.83 3.88 4.75 Swindon v Harrogat H 237-241 6 1~0 Lg 2 20230225 4.20 3.40 2.11 Barrow v Stockpor H 260-265 5 2~1 Lg 2 20230225 3.20 3.20 2.50 Colchest v Northamp A 240-292 -42 0~2 Lg 2 20230225 4.00 3.44 2.05 Crawley v Carlisle H 256-254 12 2~1 Lg 2 20230225 2.44 3.35 3.22 Crewe v Rochdale H 257-193 74 1~0 Lg 2 20230225 2.63 3.60 2.86 Doncaste v Bradford H 258-243 25 1~0 Lg 2 20230225 2.40 3.15 3.47 Gillingh v AFC Wimb D 259-273 -4 0~0 Lg 2 20230225 3.10 3.30 2.49 Grimsby v Leyton O A 210-279 -59 0~1 Lg 2 20230225 3.47 3.25 2.29 Hartlepo v Walsall A 218-281 -53 1~2 Lg 2 20230225 2.05 3.55 3.92 Mansfiel v Salford H 278-284 4 1~0 Lg 2 20230225 2.38 3.30 3.27 Newport v Sutton A 241-267 -16 0~1 Conf 20230225 2.33 3.61 2.97 Altrinch v Solihull H 250-245 15 1~0 Conf 20230225 1.97 3.82 3.62 Barnet v Aldersho H 283-229 64 2~0 Conf 20230225 1.61 4.15 5.87 Boreham v Scnuthor H 272-254 28 1~0 Conf 20230225 1.47 4.50 7.40 Chesterf v Oldham H 274-243 41 2~1 Conf 20230225 2.37 3.40 3.11 Eastleig v Bromley H 249-244 15 1~0 Conf 20230225 2.30 3.35 3.30 Halifax v Maidenhe D 239-251 -2 0~0 Conf 20230225 3.30 3.49 2.27 Maidston v Gateshea A 191-208 -7 0~3 Conf 20230225 3.65 3.58 2.10 Torquay v Southend A 197-256 -49 0~1 Conf 20230225 1.58 4.25 6.00 Woking v Wealdsto H 259-248 21 2~0 Conf 20230225 1.15 8.73 18.03 Wrexham v Dorking H 283-208 85 2~0 Conf 20230225 2.35 3.25 3.50 York v Yeovil A 188-261 -63 0~2 Conf 20230225 1.30 6.04 10.17 Notts Co v Dag and H 292-244 58 1~0 Prem 20230226 2.63 3.56 2.96 Tottenha v Chelsea H 287-275 23 1~0 Bund 20230226 1.36 5.90 10.00 Bayern M v Union Be H 289-276 23 2~0 Bund 20230226 2.25 3.74 3.34 Freiburg v Leverkus H 267-246 31 1~0 Cham 20230227 1.63 4.20 6.50 Swansea v Rotherha H 261-211 60 3~0 Lg 1 20230228 1.95 3.60 3.85 Peterbor v Charlton H 255-258 7 3~1 Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 A Championship full house with Saturday's predictions . . . game pred ratings Adv outcome Friday Av. Odds West Bro v Middlesb H 282-269 23 ✅ 2.48 Coventry v Sunderla H 281-280 11 ✅ 2.30 Birmingh v Luton A 209-294 -75 ✅ 2.63 Bristol v Hull H 248-243 15 ✅ 2.40 Burnley v Huddersf H 279-212 77 ✅ 1.42 Norwich v Cardiff H 247-220 37 ✅ 1.74 Preston v Wigan H 258-234 34 ✅ 2.42 QPR v Blackbur A 259-286 -17 ✅ 3.90 Reading v Blackpoo H 260-197 73 ✅ 2.13 Sheffiel v Watford H 281-272 19 ✅ 1.88 Stoke v Millwall A 189-276 -77 ✅ 3.25 But not too bad with yesterday's Bundesliga and League 1 either game pred ratings Adv outcome Friday Av. Odds Hoffenhe v Dortmund A 239-294 -45 ✅ 1.82 RB Leipz v Ein Fran H 273-275 8 ✅ 1.75 Werder B v Bochum H 257-233 34 ✅ 2.10 Schalke v Stuttgar D 224-235 -1 ❌ FC Koln v Wolfsbur A 236-258 -12 ✅ 3.11 Hertha v Augsburg H 235-245 0 ✅ 2.20 Barnsley v Derby H 253-260 3 ✅ 2.95 Bolton v Port Val H 284-227 67 ✅ 1.68 Burton v Accringt A 186-242 -46 ❌ Charlton v Sheffiel A 258-280 -12 ✅ 2.01 Exeter v Cambridg H 210-177 43 ✅ 1.91 Fleetwoo v Morecamb H 248-233 25 ✅ 1.85 Forest G v Lincoln A 169-270 -91 ❌ Milton K v Ipswich A 172-270 -88 ✅ 1.60 Peterbor v Plymouth A 255-286 -21 ❌ Portsmou v Cheltenh H 258-229 39 ✅ 1.80 Shrewsbu v Wycombe A 220-261 -31 ❌ Oxford v Bristol A 184-223 -29 ✅ 4.00 harry_rag and Zico10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zico10 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Impressive stuff. That would have been some championship acca! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 (edited) The weekend group of 70 games yielded 40 wins (57.1%) for a 20.47 profit (at Friday's average odds) Since starting this revisit we have predicted 369 games, with 172 correct (46.5%) and a return of +1.97 An awful lot of betting for a meagre return. Now if only there was a way of filtering the best bets. 22 midweek games . . . Cham 20230228 2.87 3.3 2.75 Preston v Coventry H 316-279 47 1~0 Cham 20230228 2.35 3.2 3.74 Luton v Millwall H 293-274 29 1~0 Lg 1 20230228 1.4 5.1 10 Derby v Cheltenh H 252-202 60 1~0 Lg 1 20230228 2.3 3.3 3.6 Lincoln v Milton K H 247-218 39 1~0 Lg 1 20230228 1.7 4.13 5.25 Peterbor v Charlton H 240-180 70 3~1 Lg 1 20230228 2.7 3.41 2.75 Portsmou v Bolton H 263-261 12 1~0 Lg 2 20230228 1.7 3.96 5.5 Tranmere v Crawley A 181-258 -67 0~2 Lg 2 20230228 3.95 3.2 2.17 AFC Wimb v Stevenag A 244-277 -23 0~1 Lg 2 20230228 2.74 3.24 2.9 Barrow v Salford A 264-316 -42 0~1 Lg 2 20230228 2.81 3.1 2.83 Gillingh v Bradford H 252-245 17 1~0 Lg 2 20230228 3.71 3.4 2.15 Harrogat v Northamp A 219-294 -65 0~2 Conf 20230228 1.91 3.8 4.03 Barnet v Oldham H 280-248 42 2~1 Conf 20230228 1.55 4.53 6.23 Boreham v Dorking H 287-245 52 2~0 Conf 20230228 2.1 3.5 3.79 Eastleig v York H 258-242 26 1~0 Conf 20230228 2.17 3.4 3.6 Halifax v Wealdsto A 244-263 -9 0~1 Conf 20230228 2.57 3.5 2.85 Maidenhe v Dag and H 264-254 20 1~0 Conf 20230228 2.25 3.65 3.15 Maidston v Scnuthor A 232-259 -17 0~1 Conf 20230228 2.85 3.5 2.5 Torquay v Bromley A 234-252 -8 0~1 Conf 20230228 1.79 3.95 4.8 Wrexham v Chesterf H 275-283 2 3~1 Conf 20230228 3 3.41 2.43 Yeovil v Altrinch A 246-264 -8 0~1 Prem 20230301 1.38 5.4 11 Arsenal v Everton H 295-231 75 2~0 Prem 20230301 1.52 4.8 7.1 Liverpoo v Wolves H 244-252 3 2~1 Edited February 28, 2023 by Data harry_rag and Zico10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 An overabundance of draws in the 22 midweek games, not good for this prediction model, so a 2 point loss. Bund 20230303 2.33 3.9 3.2 Dortmund v RB Leipz H 293-272 31 1~0 Cham 20230303 3.39 3.32 2.38 Hull v West Bro A 215-309 -84 0~2 Conf 20230303 1.77 3.95 4.6 Southend v Barnet A 256-283 -17 1~3 Prem 20230304 1.83 4 4.76 Brighton v West Ham H 266-248 29 1~0 Prem 20230304 1.69 4.18 5.8 Chelsea v Leeds H 265-259 17 1~0 Prem 20230304 3.52 3.54 2.28 Wolves v Tottenha A 259-287 -17 0~1 Prem 20230304 2.79 3.52 2.78 Southamp v Leiceste D 236-250 -3 1~1 Prem 20230304 1.51 5.1 7.5 Man City v Newcastl H 336-324 23 2~1 Prem 20230304 1.25 7.1 15 Arsenal v Bournemo H 311-242 80 2~0 Prem 20230304 2.13 3.5 4.1 Aston Vi v Crystal H 271-266 16 1~0 Bund 20230304 2.44 3.55 3.16 Bochum v Schalke H 234-203 41 2~1 Bund 20230304 1.98 4 4.12 Mainz v Hoffenhe H 261-228 43 3~1 Bund 20230304 1.98 3.47 4.6 Union Be v FC Koln H 275-215 70 2~0 Bund 20230304 7.5 5.4 1.46 Stuttgar v Bayern M A 239-288 -39 0~2 Bund 20230304 2.4 3.7 3.09 Augsburg v Werder B A 220-256 -26 0~2 Bund 20230304 2.57 3.73 2.82 M'gladba v Freiburg A 230-266 -26 0~1 ScPr 20230304 1.18 7.94 18.1 Rangers v Kilmarno H 275-204 82 1~0 ScPr 20230304 2.6 3.25 3 Ross Cou v Motherwe H 206-194 23 1~0 ScPr 20230304 3.23 3.53 2.3 Dundee U v Aberdeen A 204-250 -35 0~1 ScPr 20230304 1.79 3.85 5 Hearts v St Johns H 252-227 36 3~2 ScPr 20230304 3.06 3.3 2.57 Livingst v Hibernia H 245-253 3 1~0 Cham 20230304 2.35 3.36 3.39 Cardiff v Bristol A 242-270 -18 0~1 Cham 20230304 6.63 4 1.62 Blackpoo v Burnley A 229-323 -84 0~1 Cham 20230304 3.41 3.3 2.35 Huddersf v Coventry A 244-263 -9 0~1 Cham 20230304 2.05 3.6 4.1 Luton v Swansea H 276-257 29 1~0 Cham 20230304 1.48 4.65 8 Middlesb v Reading H 267-252 25 1~0 Cham 20230304 2.64 3.35 3.03 Millwall v Norwich A 258-279 -11 0~1 Cham 20230304 2.94 3.4 2.62 Rotherha v QPR H 243-211 42 2~0 Cham 20230304 2.35 3.38 3.37 Sunderla v Stoke H 256-225 41 1~0 Cham 20230304 1.86 3.6 5.11 Watford v Preston H 338-311 37 2~0 Cham 20230304 2.42 3.2 3.45 Wigan v Birmingh A 170-244 -64 0~1 Cham 20230304 3.85 3.6 2.1 Blackbur v Sheffiel A 248-344 -86 0~1 Lg 1 20230304 2.35 3.4 3.35 Accringt v Forest G H 214-210 14 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 3.5 3.6 2.19 Bristol v Barnsley A 196-265 -59 1~2 Lg 1 20230304 3.68 3.52 2.11 Cambridg v Portsmou A 178-249 -61 0~2 Lg 1 20230304 2.55 3.35 3.06 Cheltenh v Fleetwoo H 200-207 3 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 1.68 3.97 6 Derby v Shrewsbu H 261-248 23 2~1 Lg 1 20230304 1.34 6 11 Ipswich v Burton H 271-247 34 2~1 Lg 1 20230304 2.7 3.34 2.8 Lincoln v Oxford H 242-195 57 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 2.03 3.79 4 Plymouth v Charlton H 287-258 39 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 2.05 3.5 4.15 Port Val v Milton K D 198-213 -5 0~0 Lg 1 20230304 1.8 4 5 Sheffiel v Peterbor H 281-246 45 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 2.1 3.5 3.86 Wycombe v Exeter H 252-238 24 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 5.5 3.84 1.73 Morecamb v Bolton A 194-255 -51 1~2 Lg 2 20230304 1.91 3.5 4.5 Bradford v Colchest H 333-224 119 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 1.93 3.66 5.28 Carlisle v Grimsby H 254-263 1 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 2.9 3.3 2.64 Harrogat v Gillingh A 221-249 -18 0~2 Lg 2 20230304 2.07 3.4 4.33 Leyton O v Swindon A 279-348 -59 1~2 Lg 2 20230304 1.53 4.3 7 Northamp v Crawley H 292-236 66 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 4.75 3.6 1.83 Rochdale v Stevenag A 173-275 -92 1~2 Lg 2 20230304 2.3 3.5 3.3 Salford v Newport H 314-221 103 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 1.67 3.75 6 Stockpor v Doncaste H 246-248 8 2~0 Lg 2 20230304 1.73 3.86 5.5 Sutton v Crewe H 257-234 33 2~1 Lg 2 20230304 1.83 3.8 4.75 Tranmere v Hartlepo H 230-198 42 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 2.25 3.2 3.8 Walsall v Barrow H 270-262 18 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 3.36 3.26 2.35 AFC Wimb v Mansfiel A 253-280 -17 0~1 Conf 20230304 2.25 3.65 3.3 Aldersho v Torquay H 229-197 42 1~0 Conf 20230304 5 4.1 1.7 Bromley v Notts Co A 258-292 -24 1~2 Conf 20230304 2.17 3.6 3.5 Dag and v York H 244-188 66 2~1 Conf 20230304 2.94 3.72 2.35 Dorking v Halifax A 208-239 -21 0~1 Conf 20230304 3.55 3.6 2.18 Gateshea v Chesterf A 208-274 -56 1~2 Conf 20230304 2.88 3.35 2.5 Oldham v Boreham A 243-272 -19 0~1 Conf 20230304 3.38 3.6 2.23 Scnuthor v Eastleig H 254-247 17 2~1 Conf 20230304 1.63 4.5 5 Solihull v Maidston H 245-191 64 3~0 Conf 20230304 2.9 3.59 2.4 Wealdsto v Altrinch H 248-250 8 3~1 Conf 20230304 4 3.5 2.03 Yeovil v Woking H 261-259 12 1~0 Conf 20230304 6 4.35 1.54 Maidenhe v Wrexham A 254-283 -19 1~2 Prem 20230305 2.83 3.22 2.95 Nott'm F v Everton H 255-238 28 1~0 Prem 20230305 2.5 3.9 2.95 Liverpoo v Man Unit A 251-333 -71 0~1 Bund 20230305 2.51 3.65 2.94 Wolfsbur v Ein Fran A 257-274 -7 1~3 Bund 20230305 1.59 4.6 6.13 Leverkus v Hertha H 279-237 52 1~0 ScPr 20230305 13 6.5 1.26 St Mirre v Celtic A 258-290 -21 0~1 Prem 20230306 2.06 3.78 3.88 Brentfor v Fulham A 272-298 -15 0~1 For the weekend . . . Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 73 weekend fixtures found 36 correct, a positive return of +2.03. Over this series 218 correct from 464 games, a profit of +1.68. Or as stated earlier, round about half the picks correct and around break-even. That's all for the time being while I subject the method to further scrutiny. harry_rag and Zico10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted May 6, 2023 Author Share Posted May 6, 2023 Further number crunching with this idea I've switched from maximising results to squeezing the best profits. Strike rates take a hit as would be expected, but overall the returns do show a slight improvement. Losing runs will be longer but the bitter pill sweetened somewhat by a smattering of juicy prices. What it churns out from two full seasons examining English leagues down to National League plus Sc Prem and major leagues from Germany, France, Italy & Spain is a remarkable (well it seems remarkable to me!) 6,418 bets showing a loss of just 4.09 points to average odds (at time of harvesting) Still looking for ways to home in on the best bets, but it appears that excluding some competitions might be of merit. Unsurprisingly I guess lower leagues prove the less reliable, eliminating English League 2 & National League would leave the method with a record of +78.94 from 4688 bets. Not enough to retire on, bet headed in the right direction. The first table below shows results from season 21-22. The second table is cumulative, i.e. the sum of BOTH seasons, up to last evening. 2021-22 season profit/loss 22.35 38.52 -12.47 -21.96 -8.28 -15.16 -27.34 -24.72 -13.15 21.91 ROI 9.59% 8.48% -4.21% -4.90% -1.86% -5.25% -6.67% -8.27% -7.56% 7.61% league Bundesliga Championship LaLiga League One League Two Ligue 1 National League Premier League Sco Premiership Serie A %winners 38.63% 42.51% 36.49% 40.40% 41.57% 33.56% 42.68% 36.79% 42.53% 38.19% This season profit/loss 18.85 57.83 7.04 -3.09 -44.49 10.45 -38.54 -16.91 -9.48 14.25 (including above) ROI 4.36% 6.48% 1.30% -0.35% -5.07% 1.94% -4.52% -3.05% -2.99% 2.67% league Bundesliga Championship LaLiga League One League Two Ligue 1 National League Premier League Sco Premiership Serie A %winners 37.96% 40.43% 38.82% 41.48% 38.77% 37.55% 42.56% 38.09% 43.85% 38.46% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted May 6, 2023 Author Share Posted May 6, 2023 The final two columns are an attempt to indicate the teams who are more or less likely to throw up unexpected results. It is a rather crude & rudimentary device, I hope others will point out it's shortcomings, I do admit it doesn't seem to be of much help! It is calculated as follows; Using the home odds for each preceding game during the season. If the home side wins BOTH teams are awarded 1- (homeodds/1) Otherwise BOTH teams are awarded (homeodds/1) The figure in the columns are the average of each team to date, home team first, then away team. Leeds to win against Man City anyone? The machine thinks it's worthwhile !!? Bundesliga 20230505 1=2 A 1.67 4.4 5.8 Bayer Leverkusen v FC Koln A 232-255 -12 0.455 0.459 WIN @ 5.80 Bundesliga 20230505 2=3 A 1.74 4.2 5.36 Mainz v Schalke H 278-237 52 0.465 0.407 Premier League 20230506 3.6 3.64 2.25 Bournemouth v Chelsea H 294-226 79 0.387 0.45 Premier League 20230506 1.51 5.3 6.5 Liverpool v Brentford D 242-257 -4 0.448 0.487 Premier League 20230506 1.2 9.6 19 Manchester City v Leeds A 236-263 -16 0.27 0.468 Premier League 20230506 1.84 4.1 4.6 Tottenham v Crystal Palace A 226-259 -22 0.412 0.409 Premier League 20230506 3.15 3.4 2.55 Wolves v Aston Villa A 214-288 -63 0.443 0.444 Bundesliga 20230506 3.53 3.4 2.34 Augsburg v Union Berlin A 273-294 -10 0.447 0.478 Bundesliga 20230506 1.95 4.1 4.17 B. Monchengladbach v Bochum A 256-313 -46 0.526 0.432 Bundesliga 20230506 4.2 3.79 1.97 Freiburg v RB Leipzig H 276-236 51 0.412 0.414 Bundesliga 20230506 3.2 3.69 2.35 Hertha Berlin v Stuttgart H 213-217 7 0.393 0.442 Bundesliga 20230506 2.4 3.8 3.05 Hoffenheim v Eintracht Frank A 258-295 -26 0.448 0.463 Bundesliga 20230506 9.5 6.7 1.35 Werder Bremen v Bayern Munic H 249-239 21 0.458 0.378 Ligue 1 20230506 2.45 3.74 3.2 Lens v Marseille D 246-266 -9 0.376 0.35 Ligue 1 20230506 2.67 3.4 2.94 Nice v Rennes H 287-221 77 0.433 0.462 Ligue 1 20230506 3.55 3.98 2.12 Reims v Lille A 230-262 -21 0.433 0.411 Serie A 20230506 2.05 3.62 4.4 AC Milan v Lazio H 216-212 15 0.428 0.433 Serie A 20230506 3.3 3.3 2.55 AS Roma v Inter H 155-134 32 0.403 0.399 Serie A 20230506 2.43 3.51 3.2 Cremonese v Spezia A 198-246 -37 0.384 0.378 Premier League 20230507 2.5 3.95 2.88 Newcastle v Arsenal H 277-246 42 0.392 0.345 Premier League 20230507 3.6 3.9 2.13 West Ham v Manchester Utd A 208-245 -26 0.408 0.448 League One 20230507 3.65 3.8 2.1 Burton v MK Dons H 238-205 44 0.468 0.428 League One 20230507 2.7 3.75 2.61 Barnsley v Peterborough H 276-230 57 0.443 0.465 League One 20230507 3 3.6 2.49 Bristol Rovers v Bolton H 260-257 14 0.455 0.451 League One 20230507 1.47 4.7 8.5 Cambridge Utd v Forest Green H 240-111 140 0.452 0.408 League One 20230507 2.65 3.75 2.81 Cheltenham v Charlton H 273-235 49 0.457 0.461 League One 20230507 2.45 3.85 3.1 Exeter v Morecambe A 244-279 -24 0.459 0.427 League One 20230507 7.5 5.1 1.44 Fleetwood v Ipswich H 276-258 29 0.461 0.339 League One 20230507 2.11 3.75 3.8 Lincoln v Shrewsbury H 303-244 70 0.47 0.449 League One 20230507 1.6 4.5 6 Oxford Utd v Accrington H 224-220 15 0.464 0.42 League One 20230507 4.4 4.2 1.8 Port Vale v Plymouth A 205-276 -60 0.458 0.456 League One 20230507 2.1 3.85 3.48 Portsmouth v Wycombe H 260-251 20 0.433 0.484 League One 20230507 2.65 3.69 2.75 Sheffield Wed v Derby H 242-226 27 0.384 0.424 Bundesliga 20230507 1.55 5.3 6.3 Dortmund v Wolfsburg A 222-339 -106 0.403 0.444 Ligue 1 20230507 3.61 3.55 2.24 AC Ajaccio v Toulouse A 151-227 -65 0.393 0.431 Ligue 1 20230507 2.47 3.45 3.21 Auxerre v Clermont A 244-315 -60 0.397 0.452 Ligue 1 20230507 6.5 5.1 1.52 Angers v Monaco A 100-204 -93 0.37 0.399 Ligue 1 20230507 1.72 4.5 4.9 Lyon v Montpellier A 229-332 -92 0.453 0.416 Ligue 1 20230507 2.46 3.55 3.12 Lorient v Brest H 247-246 12 0.46 0.407 Ligue 1 20230507 2.92 3.5 2.65 Nantes v Strasbourg H 245-153 103 0.404 0.439 Ligue 1 20230507 9.5 6.5 1.36 Troyes v Paris SG H 227-185 53 0.374 0.311 Serie A 20230507 2.45 3.4 3.18 Atalanta v Juventus A 180-218 -27 0.409 0.418 Serie A 20230507 2.27 3.2 3.86 Lecce v Verona H 213-103 121 0.433 0.421 Serie A 20230507 1.92 3.91 4.33 Napoli v Fiorentina H 298-229 80 0.334 0.431 Serie A 20230507 2.05 3.45 4.3 Torino v Monza H 249-244 16 0.44 0.438 Premier League 20230508 1.4 5.5 9.2 Brighton v Everton H 259-255 15 0.446 0.446 Premier League 20230508 2.76 3.75 2.68 Fulham v Leicester H 291-240 62 0.414 0.415 Premier League 20230508 2.2 3.67 3.54 Nottingham v Southampton H 270-262 19 0.407 0.404 Championship 20230508 4.1 3.7 2.01 Birmingham v Sheffield Utd H 293-242 63 0.457 0.44 Championship 20230508 1.36 5.6 11 Burnley v Cardiff H 309-191 130 0.387 0.467 Championship 20230508 2.1 3.6 3.8 Huddersfield v Reading H 291-292 11 0.466 0.45 Championship 20230508 1.67 4.2 5.53 Luton v Hull H 273-271 14 0.441 0.474 Championship 20230508 2.56 3.72 2.96 Middlesbrough v Coventry H 275-270 17 0.479 0.458 Championship 20230508 1.95 3.86 4.07 Millwall v Blackburn H 267-254 25 0.493 0.512 Championship 20230508 1.57 4.75 6.5 Norwich v Blackpool D 192-210 -6 0.45 0.45 Championship 20230508 4 3.84 1.96 Preston v Sunderland H 254-254 12 0.458 0.464 Championship 20230508 2.45 3.66 3 QPR v Bristol City A 208-285 -65 0.479 0.472 Championship 20230508 3.2 3.72 2.36 Swansea v West Brom H 251-208 55 0.447 0.476 Championship 20230508 2.4 3.6 3.03 Watford v Stoke H 236-173 75 0.502 0.475 Championship 20230508 2.12 3.8 3.6 Wigan v Rotherham A 209-290 -69 0.434 0.475 League Two 20230508 2.01 3.6 4.2 Bradford City v Leyton Orien H 260-270 1 0.486 0.438 League Two 20230508 3.4 3.4 2.39 Barrow v Stevenage H 284-118 177 0.502 0.41 League Two 20230508 4 3.71 2.05 Colchester v Mansfield H 262-223 50 0.459 0.483 League Two 20230508 1.91 3.71 4.5 Grimsby v AFC Wimbledon A 208-257 -38 0.481 0.472 League Two 20230508 2.05 3.8 3.8 Harrogate v Rochdale H 258-122 147 0.472 0.456 League Two 20230508 1.67 4 5.75 Newport v Crewe A 101-274 -162 0.451 0.464 League Two 20230508 1.9 3.88 4.33 Swindon v Crawley A 252-277 -14 0.486 0.47 League Two 20230508 1.5 4.5 7.5 Salford v Gillingham H 239-202 48 0.479 0.47 League Two 20230508 1.2 7.5 18 Stockport County v Hartlepoo A 185-240 -44 0.453 0.427 League Two 20230508 3.4 3.45 2.26 Sutton v Carlisle A 124-276 -141 0.469 0.448 League Two 20230508 5.25 4 1.71 Tranmere v Northampton A 276-304 -17 0.49 0.442 League Two 20230508 1.81 3.79 5 Walsall v Doncaster D 255-274 -8 0.467 0.489 Serie A 20230508 2.35 3.35 3.85 Empoli v Salernitana H 231-234 8 0.454 0.434 Serie A 20230508 2.42 3.57 3.1 Sassuolo v Bologna A 242-265 -12 0.459 0.458 Serie A 20230508 1.55 4.5 7 Udinese v Sampdoria H 227-116 122 0.465 0.353 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 Well, not a great example there. 21 points lost from 75 games! Such is life. Sticking with this idea though, still an overall profit from two full seasons. Onward & (hopefully) upward! alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iroquois Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 how you calculate the ratings, what factors you use? thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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