kensland Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 (edited) Southwell. Single. 5.30. Irish Flame 8/1 unpl Good luck all. Edited January 31, 2023 by kensland LEE-GRAYS, The Equaliser, black rabbit and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Change of tack today ...looking through some old papers I found my grandads old value system .which he used to do really well with ....so for old times sake I thought I'd honour it with a few bets 630 southwell Papa stour 5pt ew 11/1 kensland, LEE-GRAYS, Bedlam and 6 others 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 (edited) Double. 1.40. Ffos. Georgie Girl 15/8 2nd 5.30. South. Imperial Girl 3/1 1st singles & double. Good luck all . Edited January 31, 2023 by kensland azzybear, black rabbit, richard-westwood and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 59 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Change of tack today ...looking through some old papers I found my grandads old value system .which he used to do really well with ....so for old times sake I thought I'd honour it with a few bets 630 southwell Papa stour 5pt ew 11/1 What’s the premise behind the system Rich? LEE-GRAYS, The Equaliser, black rabbit and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 9 hours ago, DanV89 said: What’s the premise behind the system Rich? Well I've seen updated versions bring used nowadays but in essence you find a horse that finished top 4 lto and take,away last o.r from today's o.r ....if result is ..0 ..-1 or -2 then you move to step 2 ....if not no bet Step 2 ..take away above races actual racing weight from today's racing weight ....if total is +7 or more you have an ew bet I think it' might be an old system that has done the rounds and he,altered it over time but ive seen other variations on it .... but he had loads of success with it and used it a lot in hcaps on lucky 15s and I know it gave him loads of ew value horses ....winners,at like 16/1 + sometimes In tonight's race I upgraded papas 5th to 4th because he started really slow last in better race than this and finished really strongly 5th so I think with better start he'd have been top 4 for certain o.r 85 that day today 83 = -2 ...then in race he's 8-13 last time ..9-7 today = +8 ....so its a bet I couldn't get my head around the step 2 it seems counter intuitive but after thinking about it I guess it means the horse is dropping in class so gets a higher racing weight so it makes sense now ? So in essence you have a placed horse that has same or less o.r today and is dropping in class for today's race ....it seems logical tbh ? The Equaliser, black rabbit, azzybear and 3 others 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannotbebeat Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Newcastle 12.50 - Highfield Prince - 6/1 Limerick 3.52 - Blizzard Of Oz - 4/7 Lingfield 4.10 - William Philo - 15/4 Southwell 6.30 - Sir Robin - 7/2 Good luck all CNBB. richard-westwood, kensland, LEE-GRAYS and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Well I've seen updated versions bring used nowadays but in essence you find a horse that finished top 4 lto and take,away last o.r from today's o.r ....if result is ..0 ..-1 or -2 then you move to step 2 ....if not no bet Step 2 ..take away above races actual racing weight from today's racing weight ....if total is +7 or more you have an ew bet I think it' might be an old system that has done the rounds and he,altered it over time but ive seen other variations on it .... but he had loads of success with it and used it a lot in hcaps on lucky 15s and I know it gave him loads of ew value horses ....winners,at like 16/1 + sometimes In tonight's race I upgraded papas 5th to 4th because he started really slow last in better race than this and finished really strongly 5th so I think with better start he'd have been top 4 for certain o.r 85 that day today 83 = -2 ...then in race he's 8-13 last time ..9-7 today = +8 ....so its a bet I couldn't get my head around the step 2 it seems counter intuitive but after thinking about it I guess it means the horse is dropping in class so gets a higher racing weight so it makes sense now ? So in essence you have a placed horse that has same or less o.r today and is dropping in class for today's race ....it seems logical tbh ? Found another qualifier ....evolicatt in 730 South.....5pt ew 5/1 black rabbit, azzybear, The Equaliser and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Just one selection ahead of Southwell's 6.30. The bumper at fos Las Endless possibility Makes his debut under rules and ran well in a maiden point to point getting into the running before fading into sixth. May not actually count for much but the winner that day was Atalanta Brave who was about to run up a sequence including yesterday easy win. Endless possibility Each way Fos las bumper The Equaliser, kensland, yossa6133 and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 New 1325 shoeshine boy Red missile ew New 1545 coolmoyne Ffos 1450 Oscar thyme Midnight ginger ew Good luck all black rabbit, kensland, LEE-GRAYS and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Charles Ritz 2 50 Ffos/ £25 ew 16/1 { 1/20th of a pt staked } fd1972uk, The Equaliser, LEE-GRAYS and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 (edited) You have to be good to win a bumper carrying a penalty but Alcedo went into the notebook when winning his bumper last time out, hosed up in heavy going and I'm hoping that he can go in again today despite that 7lb penalty, backed at 3.55 on Betfair..................2nd place, traded t a low of 1.41, the winner has gone into the notebook, looks sueful. Good luck today everyone. Edited January 31, 2023 by jonjo azzybear, calva decoy, The Equaliser and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Couldn't resist this race Lingfield 1.15 Goshen goes chasing again. He has run a big race over hurdles and comes here in much better order than his disasterous debut over fences. Given that, he is readily opposable even though I’d love him to win here. CHRISTOPHER WOOD at 7/4 can find out any weaknesses in Goshen’s jumping and attitude today. Christopher wood to win at 7/4 azzybear and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 teddy blue 1.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 high roller ,,2.00 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 all me Arthur 1.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 wind tor 2.15 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 (edited) Double today 2.35 Nc French Paradox 5/2 3.35 Lin Kenny George 10/3 (1 pt win at 5.2) 2 pts win double = poss return of 30.33 Total stakes so far = 3 points ----------------------------------------------------------- Done in by a springer in the market 4.10 Lin William Philo 1 pt win at 4.1 (It looks to be a worthy favourite to take this race) Total = 4 pts so far ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Very strange running by William Philo; he seemed to only wake up at the end of the race to finish 3rd by a head and a neck One last go for the end of the month. 5.30 Sou Regal Empire with Tom Marquand aboard 2 pts win at 6.2 for 10.19 profit Total stakes = 6 points today ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I feel a little unlucky not to have been in profit this month with my "back bets". MTD & YTD = -23.70. I am more than hopeful that I will improve my position next month. The Lay bets finished with an MTD of -6.40 = YTD. I did make a few mistakes at first and can only see improvements in the coming months. Edited January 31, 2023 by The Equaliser RESULTS UPDATE kensland 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Southwell 5pm BROUGHTON'S FLARE Each way On a hat-trick here. Having won a classified stakes and then defying a five pound penalty in the ensuing handicap Comes here without the aid of Billy Loughnane but is no longer penalised and may go in again. kensland, LEE-GRAYS, The Equaliser and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Southwell 5.30 OKEANOS Win Not disgraced when backed off the boards last time 10s into 13/8 but very slowly away and fourth staying on. Cheekpieces off now and stepped up in trip BRAVURA Win Second to mohatu last time and that one has gone in again since ( via stewards room). After impeded in the final strides. Arc winning jockey up now for sir mark Prescott. 3 previous winners in this race and likely a very strong gallop which will suit any late finishers just off the pace even though Southwell is a front runners paradise. kensland and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 (edited) 6pm Yet to win on the all weather ALPHA CAPTURE Win Faces a tricky task here. Already beaten by his nearest rival that defeat came just after winning the Rockingham. Glorious Angel on a four timer could well continue here but on ratings preference is for the top rated runner to break his duck here. Added Glorious Angel Win. The cover bet here at the prices(if the third horse wins !!) Edited January 31, 2023 by sporting sam kensland 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Don't you just love that when you back the two in a three runner and they both get beat. Southwell 6.30 Justcallmepete ran a blinder stepped up in class for the first time to complete a four race streak and the result was better than appeared rating a career best. JUSTCALLMEPETE Win However David Evans is a master schemer and his SUN POWER Each way Has arrived from Daryl Hollands yard via Mike koch and a spell in Dubai. He has raced against better horses in three races and dropped in trip has undergone the conditioning a horse only seems to receive in Dubai..... Much improved performer on debut running well until a furlong out and the drop to this distance interesting.... kensland 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 6 hours ago, jonjo said: You have to be good to win a bumper carrying a penalty but Alcedo went into the notebook when winning his bumper last time out, hosed up in heavy going and I'm hoping that he can go in again today despite that 7lb penalty, backed at 3.55 on Betfair..................2nd place, traded t a low of 1.41, the winner has gone into the notebook, looks sueful. Good luck today everyone. If the trainer uses a 7Lb claimer run after the win rather than jockey without then the 7Lb penalty is negated & you often find they can go in again . kensland and The Equaliser 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Southwell 8.30 MEDRARA Each way DUBAI JEANIUS WIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 5 hours ago, calva decoy said: If the trainer uses a 7Lb claimer run after the win rather than jockey without then the 7Lb penalty is negated & you often find they can go in again . Good point. Horse beaten 3.5 lengths. Had Venetia put on a 7lbs claimer she may have won? Let's hope she takes note of your advice Calva, I will ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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