NFL - Playoffs Championship Round

[MinellaWorksop]

A place for bets, thoughts and feelings on the next round of Playoff games, the Championship finals.

Games are as follows and times are UK start times.

NFC Final:

Sunday 29th January 8:00pm

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers

 

AFC Final:

Sunday 29th January 11:30pm

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

[harry_rag]

Will do some proper analysis at season end (especially to compare this season's data to last season to see if there are consistent patterns) but I've just looked at a couple of things having brought my spreadsheet up to date.

I've got 213 players in my data sample now (those with a sell price of 21+; not all of them as I missed a few weeks).

Anyone who had a tenner on all of them at best bookies price would've lost £32.55 with an ROI of -1.53%. Not a huge loss for an interest in most games and probably a profit if you'd tried to get a bit more on the exchanges.

Anyone who bought every player's TD minutes for £1 per point on the spreads would've lost £751. A slightly more expensive way to have cheered on the same players to score! That's despite 3 "ton-up" wins that returned a profit of £490 (including £255 when Ekeler scored a hat trick back in October).

Anyone who sold every player at £1 per point (and watched from behind the sofa hoping they didn't score, especially late on in a game) would've won £282.50 despite losing £499 on those aforementioned 3 players. Sellers were already well over £600 up before Ekeler did his best to wreck their bottom line.

Makes you wonder why we all mess about trying to eke out a modest profit from our fixed odds bets perhaps? 

[fd1972uk]

Tbh I have absolute no clue who is going tonwin either of these games.

I'll bet on bet builders and probably just go with scorers and points.

If push cam to shove I'll say Bengals v Philly final and Philly winning. After I said they didn't look like winners, lol.

Already put on a boosted Hills price, over 2 fgs and Sanders and mccaffrey tds. 7/1 for 49ers philly.

 

[fd1972uk]

Looking at it, I'm not going for a result at all, so bet builders and opting for Philly and Bengals as teams to use on my bets, they free up moneyback or free bet builde bets so I'll use them in other game.

Just going 1st team td for each team (where available) and a couple of other stuff like total points, yardage or something. One bet win should make a profit regardless of what it is.

Edited January 29, 2023 by fd1972uk

[MinellaWorksop]

2 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Tbh I have absolute no clue who is going tonwin either of these games.

I'll bet on bet builders and probably just go with scorers and points.

If push cam to shove I'll say Bengals v Philly final and Philly winning. After I said they didn't look like winners, lol.

Already put on a boosted Hills price, over 2 fgs and Sanders and mccaffrey tds. 7/1 for 49ers philly.

 

Completely agree mate. Only bet I have had is using up £1.50 worth of free bet credits from that Bet365 goals giveaway offer they do. And just basically stuck it on the away sides (Bengals and 49ers) moneyline double at 4.82

Other than that, just going to enjoy seeing how it all plays out in what is some superb matchups.

[fd1972uk]

I'm doing 9, maybe 10 bets all in, lol.

2 guaranteed mb offers.

3 bet builders which kick another 3 fbs which I'll use on other game.

1 special from wh so far on philly game, I'll see what's available for 49ers.

Main bet so far (mb offers)

PE V 49ers

Hurts first team td, hurts 30 yards rush and PE 15 pts. 5/1

 

KC v CB 

Mixon firs team td, burrows 231 yes pass and CB 14 pts.

Obviously if the WH players become first td I'm gubbed apart from mb offers, but that'll give me a chance of that.

Philly probably go with bb for smith, brown and godaert. 

Bengals Chase, Higgins and Hurst.

Could easily have went anytime but seriously dents the odds.

Blest scenario is 2 main bets come up and WH bet also comes in, lol.

 

Good luck whatever you do.

Edited January 29, 2023 by fd1972uk

[harry_rag]

Done the first game. McCaffrey my "nap" again, evens with Lads using a boost. Should be odds on in my opinion. Seems to be fit while Mitchell likely to be out, increasing his workload. He might score and he might not but I'm happy to back him at evens. As per last week, double stake.

Others for me are AJ Brown at 6/4 or better and Kittle at 11/5 or better.

Will do the other game shortly.

[harry_rag]

Done Pacheco at 2.59 (6/4 is fine), my strongest fancy for this game. Also McKinnon at 2.76 (ok at 8/5).

Wavering over 3rd pick; Chase at 11/10 not bad but Higgins maybe more appealing IF I can get 2/1 or better. TBC on that one.

[fd1972uk]

Sky special before the game 11/4 Sanders or mcaffrey first td and also.get a free £5 bet.

So obviously wiped out all other bets but that win and now hoping for hills bet to come off mccaffrey td and 3 fgs

[fd1972uk]

OK 3 fgs please

[harry_rag]

6 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

OK 3 fgs please

Good luck, had a look at those two 7/1s and didn’t think they were quite worth backing but I guess that one is definitely shorter now. McNapprey lands again so break even at worst for me on the first game.

[MinellaWorksop]

McCaffrey is Mr McNappery indeed! Great shout again @harry_rag

[fd1972uk]

49ers are killing me, their usual defence is abysmal and with purdy injured they're falling apart from attack too.

Thought I was getting 2 fgs tbh, but 49ers went about 15 yards back in a play and thought 49ers were keeping one of thise last 2 runs out nearing the end, lol.

[fd1972uk]

Took the 2nd game 7s too offer.

[fd1972uk]

No fg here, 49ers can't stop them at all and they can't even get a 1st down.

Small loss on that 1st game, more to the case that I stupidly bet on a boylesport offer that I didn't noticed was only for the fkn Irish.

Not counting the moneyback from main bet, but guess that doesn't help if that fb is a loss, lol.

[fd1972uk]

Actually sky threw up a 4th q eagles to win at 4/5, luckily had just taken the ball in 49ers half so good timing.

Fg won it, meaning a small profit even including the money back offer.

Was farcical in the end with 49ers having no real qb for best part of the game.

[harry_rag]

6 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Wavering over 3rd pick; Chase at 11/10 not bad but Higgins maybe more appealing IF I can get 2/1 or better. TBC on that one.

Not matched on either so just the other 2 bets.

[fd1972uk]

Could be doing with kelce and mixon (scoring first td too for CB) now, 3 fgs up.

[harry_rag]

Started well but downhill from there. Nothing on the second game so a loss on the night. Pity Higgins didn’t quite drift far enough. 

[fd1972uk]

Had Higgins which resulted in another small profit overall (on both games) as this match has most free bet uses. Unfortunately he was the least profitwise win I could get, but a wins a win, lol.

Hoping that SB odds are up soon on 888 as got a good amount of free bets I can use, if not they'll go on footy, golf and/or horse racing.