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Race Chat-Wed 18th Jan


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Glorious lover 

Was third at happy valley local SP 15. 

Same jockey rides 

Super Vince 

Each way 

1245

Not as good a chance but placed in Australia a year ago over minimum trip.

Unplaced all four hong Kong runs, but latest run gives hope.

Prominent before falling away under this jockey.

High Draw this time dropping in class offers chance to be dropped out and produced with a run late on. Big price.

Dundalk 1.35

ISOTTA

Win 

Competitive looking maiden this one is the bottom weight and claimer takes off another half stone may work against him but otherwise combination of weight and high draw look good. Add to a good second in maiden on turf behind Perotan who was a listed winner and group one runner. Finished a place in front of Ark in same race. Ado McGuiness sent him over to france where he has gained further experience on heavy ground. All weather debut now.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by sporting sam
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In the first a Dundalk Mr Escobar looks a solid option, very well backed sadly so early prices missed 2.42 was tee best I could get. Finished second last time out in a Maiden to a horse rated 77, Mr Escobar was giving that one a hell of a lot of weight, his nearest market rival today has a rating of just 66..........? Won, just a shame I wasnt quick enough to get the early 5.2 on offer, still 2.44 beat the Sp, hit 40 in runing!

 

Good luck today everyone.

Edited by jonjo
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Kicking myself for not backing City Escape in the first.  I thought it had a good chance of reversing form with Cicely today.

LAY bet

2.10 Wolves Majestic Warrior 2.04 at 2.04 = 2 v 2.12.  This horse is a short price based upon the trainer's reputation of being able to get one ready to win.  Not much to go on.  The Sire won at 7 furlongs and the dam unraced.  Looks worth taking on with at least two that have run having good chances

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Obviously the market was right about Majestic Warrior

4.25 Wolv LAY Jupiter Express 2.04 at 2.18 = 2 v (2.41).  Tom Marquand is my favourite jockey so it is a worry going against him.  the horse has atracted around 50% of market money on Betfair for this race with nearest challengers 15% a piece. It does not have a good record at 6 furlongs and ran badly LTO so I'll chance it will lose 

5.45 Sou Naomis Charm 2.04 at 2.76 = 2 v (3.59) Has two good contenders against it so I'll chance the lay bet on this one

I thought my luck was in with so much money pouring on Victory House late on.  The original market leader wins anyway.  1 winner and two losers so -3.71 today. MTD -8.90

Edited by The Equaliser
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7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep, he battled well.

Out of interest, do you take the early price on Betfair or wait for the BSP.

The liquidity on betfair is the deciding factor and the timing. If its a price missed, like todays was, I'll take the best on offer at the time should it looks as though the price is still dropping, I use Gruss and the ladder graphs are very useful as to seeing where the money is and its also quicker to place your bet using the Betfair API. Sometimes on the bigger priced ones I'll settle for Bfsp if at the time the liquidity is low and not much is available, its the better priced ones where you gain a better percentage advanage over the Industry Sp. Of course they often drift!! Nothing is perfect, but I find the use of Gruss is a major benefit. 

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Happy valley 2.50

 

CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 

Win

Has very strong claims on this hat-trick bid from stall 1 under champion jockey Zac Purton. *

LIFE IS GOOD 

Each way

Is an Irish horse how came out here after two good runs including a win over further by four plus lengths. Old name De Velara.

Different name here and chances although better over further.

* L J Ferraris is the jockey.

Edited by sporting sam
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Trixie

3.15 Wolv Calonne 5/1 (0.50 win bet at 5/1, My PL Nap today) N/R

6.15 Sou Hannah's Return 4/1

6.45 Sou Finery 2/1 (revised PL Nap) 1 pt win at 3.4 = poss return of 2.35

1 x 0.50 win Trixie = 2 pts with a poss return of 45 points

Total stakes 3 points

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Calonne a non runner and a disappointing run from Finery so I take a 3 pts loss today.  MTD is -10.76

Edited by The Equaliser
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2 hours ago, jonjo said:

The liquidity on betfair is the deciding factor and the timing. If its a price missed, like todays was, I'll take the best on offer at the time should it looks as though the price is still dropping, I use Gruss and the ladder graphs are very useful as to seeing where the money is and its also quicker to place your bet using the Betfair API. Sometimes on the bigger priced ones I'll settle for Bfsp if at the time the liquidity is low and not much is available, its the better priced ones where you gain a better percentage advanage over the Industry Sp. Of course they often drift!! Nothing is perfect, but I find the use of Gruss is a major benefit. 

I've probably been a bit lazy taking BSP, I'll have a look at my data and see if I can get a few extra pips.

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