Racing-Chat Monday 16th January

[kensland]

Double.

4.20. Wolv. Bright Side Girl       10/3       unpl

1.40. Here.  Leading Theatre       5/1    2nd 

singles & double. 

Double. 

2.10..Here.  Sailing Grace      9/2     unpl

4.00. Font.  Film D' Action       2/1     meeting abdn.

singles & double. 

Good luck all 

Edited January 16, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Hereford. 

Single. 

3.10. Heron Creek         8/1     unpl.

Good luck all. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by kensland

[jonjo]

I like the look of Missed Tee in the 1.40 at Hereford for the Skelton team, she won a mare point before finishing fourth on her stable debut and then going on to win her maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter next time up. The second in that race went on to finsish second again at level weghts to a horse rated 121, giving the impression that a rating of around 116 would be a decent mark so as our selection gets in here for her handicap debut off a rating of jst 109 then she has to be of interest, 2.48 was taken for ths one..............................What a cracking finish, Won by just getting back up on the line?

Good luck today everyone. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by jonjo

[cannotbebeat]

Hereford

1.40 Leading Theatre 4/1

2.40 City Chief 1/1

3.10 Magnificent Ben 11/4

Good luck all CNBB.

[Sporting Sam]

Punchestown 1250

 

CALICO 

Win

Deep form including listed second at Aintree and latest second which puts her in a strong formline with blood destiny and Lossimouth.

This is from good second places to Dixon cove and comfort zone. Rated 116 and in receipt of seven pounds from sixteen rivals.

Hard to see this Elliot runner being beaten by anything other than the conditions and the "glorious uncertainties of racing."

Sam Ewing rides and looks a long way clear on form shown to date.

Some very good newcomers in the line up including Mick Channon's sixties icon JACOVEC CAVERN

[The Equaliser]

LAY BET

7.00 Wolves Hit Mac 2.04 at 2.40 = 2 v (2.86).  Very consistent horse and has a good chance of winning this race.  Not sure if blinkers will work the oracle and there are quite a few in the race that could thwart its effort.  George Boughey also runs the frustrating Danger Alert in the previous race and is trying blinkers on this one too.  I think this would be better with a hood than blinkers.  However, the horse should have a better chance at winning than my chosen lay selection regarding class and lack of competition.  Other short-priced horses look too dangerous to lay today

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hit Mac finally wins; by a neck.  I don't think George Boughey has ever had 3 winners at one meeting before today.  At least I chose the most vulnerable of his horses running today.  I think that the wide draw thwarted Tom Marquand's effort on Boom The Groom.  A loss of 2.86 today brings the MTD to - 7.19.  I will look for more lay prospects tomorrow

Edited January 16, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[fd1972uk]

Calico, meh, not sure what happened at last, beaten easily into 3rd.

Used a fb Walking the walk at pun 1520, have also done mahlers appeal on b365 offer

[The Equaliser]

Trixie

3.40 Her Fay Ce Que Voudras 4/1

4.10 Her Pachacuti 3/1

7.30 Wolv Johnny Boom 11/4 (my PL Nap today)

1 x 0.50 win Trixie = poss ret 64.39

Singles and savers

3.40 Her Asa 0.50 win at 5/1

4.10 Her Bebraveforglory 0.50 win at 5/1

4.55 Her Jupiter Express 1 pt win at 6.6 (has wide draw to overcome)

6.30 Wolv Pride Of Yorkshire 0.50 win at 22/1

7.30 Roscilio 1 pt win at 4.2

Total stakes = 5.50 (possibily a bit high)

RESULTS UPDATE

Terrible run by Johnny Boom, was last most of the way around the track; no chance of getting on terms.  Don't know if the draw could be blamed.  Pity too that Pachacuti was beaten by a Hereford specialist under Lilly Pinchin, though the horse thoroughly deserved to win.  That scuppered my Trixie.

My win bets did no good either.  I thought that my stakes were a bit high today so I have come up with a master plan that I will use with regard to my multiple bets.  This is that I will place these bets as usual but instead of having any saver bets I will include just one win bet on my most fancied selection to cover the cost of the multiple bet.  This will keep the costs down and if all fails then I won't have lost many points either.  I will also be looking for some big-priced winners with 0.50 win bets.  I will try to cap these at 2 points per day.  

My loss today was -5.50 which brings my MTD to -7.76 (this time last year I was -56.56 so I am doing better and hopefully will do much better soon)

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Sporting Sam]

Hopefully

2.40

Hereford 

 

Jet plane 

Win

Can make a recovery from latest run when pulled up early over wrong distance.

Gets a huge pull at the weights from two rivals and also runs over winning trip enjoyed here on last visit when winning off two stones lighter.

Can be beat here but does not have to take the lead.

Edited January 16, 2023 by sporting sam

[kensland]

Wolverhampton. 

Single. 

6.30. Goldcasing       5/1      unpl

Double. 

4.55. Tipperary Moon    9/1     unpl

7.30. Hector's Hero         15/2

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Wolverhampton. 

Lucky 15.

4.20. Densest     3/1     2nd 

6.00. Barenboim     11/8    2nd 

7.00. Astrophysics     8/1       unpl

5.30. Free Solo         10/3   2nd 

Good luck all. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by kensland

[calva decoy]

Horrible incident in Wolves 5.30 with odds on favourite THE PERFECT CROWN breaking down & throwing Hollie Doyle , hate seeing these sort of things & even worse for those involved or at course ☹️

[Bang on]

20 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Trixie

3.40 Her Fay Ce Que Voudras 4/1

4.10 Her Pachacuti 3/1

7.30 Wolv Johnny Boom 11/4 (my PL Nap today)

1 x 0.50 win Trixie = poss ret 64.39

Singles and savers

3.40 Her Asa 0.50 win at 5/1

4.10 Her Bebraveforglory 0.50 win at 5/1

4.55 Her Jupiter Express 1 pt win at 6.6 (has wide draw to overcome)

6.30 Wolv Pride Of Yorkshire 0.50 win at 22/1

7.30 Roscilio 1 pt win at 4.2

Total stakes = 5.50 (possibily a bit high)

RESULTS UPDATE

Terrible run by Johnny Boom, was last most of the way around the track; no chance of getting on terms.  Don't know if the draw could be blamed.  Pity too that Pachacuti was beaten by a Hereford specialist under Lilly Pinchin, though the horse thoroughly deserved to win.  That scuppered my Trixie.

My win bets did no good either.  I thought that my stakes were a bit high today so I have come up with a master plan that I will use with regard to my multiple bets.  This is that I will place these bets as usual but instead of having any saver bets I will include just one win bet on my most fancied selection to cover the cost of the multiple bet.  This will keep the costs down and if all fails then I won't have lost many points either.  I will also be looking for some big-priced winners with 0.50 win bets.  I will try to cap these at 2 points per day.  

My loss today was -5.50 which brings my MTD to -7.76 (this time last year I was -56.56 so I am doing better and hopefully will do much better soon)

 

You are still doing 'trixies' which proved a disaster last year for you (have you checked your record with trixies ?). You have had a 4/1 winner in there.. but with nothing to go with it.. stick to singles IMO. Also, comparing your results with 'this time last year' makes no sense as you have changed your approach to 'laying' rather than backing. You are still trying not to lose rather than trying to win. 

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, Bang on said:

You are still doing 'trixies' which proved a disaster last year for you (have you checked your record with trixies ?). You have had a 4/1 winner in there.. but with nothing to go with it.. stick to singles IMO. Also, comparing your results with 'this time last year' makes no sense as you have changed your approach to 'laying' rather than backing. You are still trying not to lose rather than trying to win. 

Many thanks for your helpful comments.  Just getting the strategy right.  I am doing backing and laying and keeping these separate.  I think that the strategy went wrong with savers.  Instead I will be be backing my strongest selection as a win bet to cover my Trixie bet.  If it loses then I won't try to recover my costs which was another reason why I had a bad year .  I am presently relying on other members selections for my win and Trixie bets. However, over Christmas I was given some Amazon gift vouchers and since I don't usually know what to do with them I have bought some books on horse racing to study and develop my own selection criteria for finding winners.  You may well be right that only backing singles is the way to being profitable and, if this is so I will find this out along the way.  One thing is for certain and that is I will not lose any where near the amount of money I lost last year.  The "lay" bets are interesting, taking on short-priced selections are close to my heart. If they are successful I will increase the stakes 5 fold.  Time will tell.  The win bets are very problematic.  I am also going to include some outsiders for half-point stakes as I know that PL members like them.  I reiterate I will not lose much if any money this year.  Many thanks for your advice, always welcome 

I do realise that I should be putting something like 10 - 15 pts on my strongest selection and only having, say 2 pts on the Trixie but the problem is I am not confident about the strongest selection winning to put so many points on it.  Yet.

Please bear with me

Edited January 17, 2023 by The Equaliser

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for your helpful comments.  Just getting the strategy right.  I am doing backing and laying and keeping these separate.  I think that the strategy went wrong with savers.  Instead I will be be backing my strongest selection as a win bet to cover my Trixie bet.  If it loses then I won't try to recover my costs which was another reason why I had a bad year .  I am presently relying on other members selections for my win and Trixie bets. However, over Christmas I was given some Amazon gift vouchers and since I don't usually know what to do with them I have bought some books on horse racing to study and develop my own selection criteria for finding winners.  You may well be right that only backing singles is the way to being profitable and, if this is so I will find this out along the way.  One thing is for certain and that is I will not lose any where near the amount of money I lost last year.  The "lay" bets are interesting, taking on short-priced selections are close to my heart. If they are successful I will increase the stakes 5 fold.  Time will tell.  The win bets are very problematic.  I am also going to include some outsiders for half-point stakes as I know that PL members like them.  I reiterate I will not lose much if any money this year.  Many thanks for your advice, always welcome 

I do realise that I should be putting something like 10 - 15 pts on my strongest selection and only having, say 2 pts on the Trixie but the problem is I am not confident about the strongest selection winning to put so many points on it.  Yet.

I still think you are missing a big opportunity by not using the offers made by many bookmakers. You don't really need any horse racing skills to profit from these.

[The Equaliser]

32 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I still think you are missing a big opportunity by not using the offers made by many bookmakers. You don't really need any horse racing skills to profit from these.

Whose best to go with?  I seem to get Jack from Bet365

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by The Equaliser

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Whose best to go with?  I seem to get Jack from Bet365

Try them all. They all have decent sign up offers. Sky, Bet Victor, Boylesports, Betfred, William Hills, Coral, 888Sports. Paddy Power etc.

Out of interest do you get the 25% price boost on Football, I've made £300 on that in the last month or so.

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Try them all. They all have decent sign up offers. Sky, Bet Victor, Boylesports, Betfred, William Hills, Coral, 888Sports. Paddy Power etc.

Out of interest do you get the 25% price boost on Football, I've made £300 on that in the last month or so.

Many thanks for the info.  I don't bet on football so I have never looked at the 25% price boost.  I am mainly interested in horse racing.  Sometimes I look at Tennis or politics odds on Betfair for fun

[MCLARKE]

52 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for the info.  I don't bet on football so I have never looked at the 25% price boost.  I am mainly interested in horse racing.  Sometimes I look at Tennis or politics odds on Betfair for fun

I don't normally but that one is an easy money maker

[Zilzalian]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for your helpful comments.  Just getting the strategy right.  I am doing backing and laying and keeping these separate.  I think that the strategy went wrong with savers.  Instead I will be be backing my strongest selection as a win bet to cover my Trixie bet.  If it loses then I won't try to recover my costs which was another reason why I had a bad year .  I am presently relying on other members selections for my win and Trixie bets. However, over Christmas I was given some Amazon gift vouchers and since I don't usually know what to do with them I have bought some books on horse racing to study and develop my own selection criteria for finding winners.  You may well be right that only backing singles is the way to being profitable and, if this is so I will find this out along the way.  One thing is for certain and that is I will not lose any where near the amount of money I lost last year.  The "lay" bets are interesting, taking on short-priced selections are close to my heart. If they are successful I will increase the stakes 5 fold.  Time will tell.  The win bets are very problematic.  I am also going to include some outsiders for half-point stakes as I know that PL members like them.  I reiterate I will not lose much if any money this year.  Many thanks for your advice, always welcome 

I do realise that I should be putting something like 10 - 15 pts on my strongest selection and only having, say 2 pts on the Trixie but the problem is I am not confident about the strongest selection winning to put so many points on it.  Yet.

Please bear with me

I despair, spend 3 quid a day pick 4 gg's slap them on a 20p  lucky 15 and hope for the best. Even if you never got a winner on any bet all year you would only lose a thousand quid a year. you need to get rid of all that BS you seem to have accumulated out of your head and start picking horses and not picking this bet or that bet this system or that system. HORSES win races.

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I despair, spend 3 quid a day pick 4 gg's slap them on a 20p  lucky 15 and hope for the best. Even if you never got a winner on any bet all year you would only lose a thousand quid a year. you need to get rid of all that BS you seem to have accumulated out of your head and start picking horses and not picking this bet or that bet this system or that system. HORSES win races.

Please don't despair, I am on the right track now.  Losing a thousand pounds a year is not acceptable to me.  I think that you will improve your returns if you cut out the win bets on all the horses in the Lucky 15 and just put an adequate amount on your strongest selection.  It occurs to me that this should be your Nap bet.  Not the small amount that I will be doing to cover costs whilst I sort out my best win selection strategy.  I am not sure what the best ratio is e.g 10 pts to your suggested 3 points. However, it seems to me that anyone doing "fun" bets on a lucky 15 bet should have a decent bet on their strongest horse of the day.  I will be making my own selections in due course but in the mean time I will be putting up my choice of our excellent PL members contributions including yourself.  This is not BS.  Have a good day Zil, I am looking forward to seeing your next 13k Lucky 15

[MCLARKE]

57 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Please don't despair, I am on the right track now.  Losing a thousand pounds a year is not acceptable to me.  I think that you will improve your returns if you cut out the win bets on all the horses in the Lucky 15 and just put an adequate amount on your strongest selection.  It occurs to me that this should be your Nap bet.  Not the small amount that I will be doing to cover costs whilst I sort out my best win selection strategy.  I am not sure what the best ratio is e.g 10 pts to your suggested 3 points. However, it seems to me that anyone doing "fun" bets on a lucky 15 bet should have a decent bet on their strongest horse of the day.  I will be making my own selections in due course but in the mean time I will be putting up my choice of our excellent PL members contributions including yourself.  This is not BS.  Have a good day Zil, I am looking forward to seeing your next 13k Lucky 15

I suspect you are not on the right track, I've lost count of the number of times that you have changed tack.

Good luck anyway.

The win bets on the lucky 15 is the reason why I do them, double the odds if one winner, not sure why you would cut out the win bets.

 

[Bang on]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Please don't despair, I am on the right track now.  Losing a thousand pounds a year is not acceptable to me.  I think that you will improve your returns if you cut out the win bets on all the horses in the Lucky 15 and just put an adequate amount on your strongest selection.  It occurs to me that this should be your Nap bet.  Not the small amount that I will be doing to cover costs whilst I sort out my best win selection strategy.  I am not sure what the best ratio is e.g 10 pts to your suggested 3 points. However, it seems to me that anyone doing "fun" bets on a lucky 15 bet should have a decent bet on their strongest horse of the day.  I will be making my own selections in due course but in the mean time I will be putting up my choice of our excellent PL members contributions including yourself.  This is not BS.  Have a good day Zil, I am looking forward to seeing your next 13k Lucky 15

With horse racing we should all from time to time 'expect the unexpected', so don't just expect your NAP to win. Generally people tend to NAP short priced selections as they think that they can't lose, but sh1t happens as they say.

Just remember, only around 1 in 3 favourites win, so twice as many get beat. If we can go against the fav (even with the 2nd fav), we can improve returns. I wouldn't 'expect' many double figure odds winners ( a quick glance at results tells you that without buying any books). If we get it right, we can sometimes get a 'bonus' when a horse we have backed drifts to  double fig odds.

It appears to me that you need to keep more detailed records ( Number of runners, flat/jumps,  type of race, LTO, days since a run, forecast price, place in betting - fav etc,  jockey - Pro/app, trainer, and most IMPORTANTLY - bet type and stake .. etc etc), even just for 1 month, you will then at a glance be able to see where you are making the most mistakes and then try to avoid them. I use a few selection methods (not all provide a selection every day), and accurate records tell you if you are going wrong or it isn't working.

To reduce your workload I would start off by concentrating on 1 thing - All weather/Jumps, ... Handicaps/Non handicaps ... maximum field size .. etc. It's not easy or else bookmakers would be going out of business.

[The Equaliser]

34 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I suspect you are not on the right track, I've lost count of the number of times that you have changed tack.

Good luck anyway.

The win bets on the lucky 15 is the reason why I do them, double the odds if one winner, not sure why you would cut out the win bets.

 

I think it is better to have 4 times the amount on the deduced best horse out of the four.  This focuses the mind on the credentials of all the horses.  I think this is sound advice and not BS

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I suspect you are not on the right track, I've lost count of the number of times that you have changed tack.

Good luck anyway.

The win bets on the lucky 15 is the reason why I do them, double the odds if one winner, not sure why you would cut out the win bets.

 

Pretty much sums up where he is going wrong (cut out the singles?) he can't see the wood for the trees, cant pick his own horse or his own system. He is not even sure of what his stakes should be. All this is quite odd if you add on that he flatly refuses or even to consider any advice given to him on this forum. Seems he prefers the tipsters in the daily rags who to a man generally lose long term. @The Equaliser got some news for you, Day to day racing is a population of poor and inconsistent horses and trainer/owners trying to get the corn money the only way they can do that is to manipulate the handicap, you and or I will never be privi to that information so we are constantly guessing. where horses are running for black type on the flat is a whole different scenario, if you want to even consider using a serious system it is the pattern races you should be looking at not this dross dished out daily.

As for the jumps, well think of Cheltenham pretty much every horse is aimed at the festival the only problem is that there are 1000's of horses and only about 28 races. Nick Mordin pointed out once that if you took all the horses ( I think it was all, could have been top 10 in every race)  that ran at the festival and backed them the following season you would make money. I suspect that you will constantly lose simply because you constantly find ways to lose and to be honest that is why the Bookies never lose, there is a whole population of punters just like you, its called group think. To win you have to be different to the crowd. @Bang on is correct in all he says above. One thing i do know is that without a notebook and putting in the hard work daily no one wins. Ask anyone that wins they will all have a similar strategy that involves hours and hours of their own work. Lazy punters lose money there are no short cuts.

[The Equaliser]

On 1/18/2023 at 4:32 PM, Zilzalian said:

Pretty much sums up where he is going wrong (cut out the singles?) he can't see the wood for the trees, cant pick his own horse or his own system. He is not even sure of what his stakes should be. All this is quite odd if you add on that he flatly refuses or even to consider any advice given to him on this forum. Seems he prefers the tipsters in the daily rags who to a man generally lose long term. @The Equaliser got some news for you, Day to day racing is a population of poor and inconsistent horses and trainer/owners trying to get the corn money the only way they can do that is to manipulate the handicap, you and or I will never be privi to that information so we are constantly guessing. where horses are running for black type on the flat is a whole different scenario, if you want to even consider using a serious system it is the pattern races you should be looking at not this dross dished out daily.

As for the jumps, well think of Cheltenham pretty much every horse is aimed at the festival the only problem is that there are 1000's of horses and only about 28 races. Nick Mordin pointed out once that if you took all the horses ( I think it was all, could have been top 10 in every race)  that ran at the festival and backed them the following season you would make money. I suspect that you will constantly lose simply because you constantly find ways to lose and to be honest that is why the Bookies never lose, there is a whole population of punters just like you, its called group think. To win you have to be different to the crowd. @Bang on is correct in all he says above. One thing i do know is that without a notebook and putting in the hard work daily no one wins. Ask anyone that wins they will all have a similar strategy that involves hours and hours of their own work. Lazy punters lose money there are no short cuts.

1.  When I said cut-out singles I went on to explain that one should put most of your money on one horse.  This should be one's chosen strongest selection.  I also said that this sum of money should be more than the small cover bet that I am using in my Trixies at present.  I mentioned the ratio of staking on singles bets to multiples bets as part of a professional strategy.  You have so many times called your Lucky15 bets "fun" bets.  This implies that your main bets are singles bets at an enhanced stake.  What I am interested to know is what in your opinion should one's main singles staking be in comparison to the "fun" multiple bets.  Not sure if this should be 5 times, 10 times etc.

2.  I do not flatly refuse to take advice from members on the form.  I quite often copy helpful comments from PL members to "word" documents and keep them in my "betting" folder(s) for future study and use.  I am indebted to @Bang onfor his helpful advice with regard to both "win" and "Lay" staking.  I even have some of your comments on file going back over a year

3.  I do not follow tipsters in the daily rags.  For, backing purposes, I primarily look for inspiration from PL members.  This is from the daily free tips, courtesy of the Brigadier and The Tumbleweed King + Racing chat + Naps and the £20 challenge pages.  I then look at the races themselves to check factors such as Class, going distance, etc + ratings, and competition to decide if the selection is a good bet or not

4.  I agree that day-to-day racing is generally mediocre however, there are many PL members who like to take on the challenge of daily "dross" racing and that includes me.  Some members prefer this type of racing to bet on because as they put "there are more angles" to exploit.  The problem as I see it with high-quality racing is two-fold.  Firstly the form of the main players is very exposed and therefore the bookies adjust this in their odds and, secondly, these races are very competitive and all the horses competing are tuned up to win by aspiring or already famous trainers.

I am making a very determined effort to make a profit this year and will not in any event lose more than I did last year.