MinellaWorksop Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Three home teams I like on the money line are: Detroit Lions 1.40 New England Patriots 1.66 New York Giants 1.41 And two Quarterbacks I like in the Anytime Touchdown market are: Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns) 5.00 Mac Jones (New England Patriots) 8.00 All prices Bet365 fd1972uk and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Found 3 I like in the 6:00 games. Allgeier (Atlatanta) 11/10 Hills and PP Montgomery (Chicago) 6/5 365 Etienne Jr (Jacksonville) evens PP MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Added Cook (Minnesota) at 21/20 365 in the later games. Only place he's odds against and think I'd have him a shade of odds on. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 3 hours ago, harry_rag said: Found 3 I like in the 6:00 games. Allgeier (Atlatanta) 11/10 Hills and PP Montgomery (Chicago) 6/5 365 Etienne Jr (Jacksonville) evens PP Great shouts harry_rag, Etienne and Allgeier deliver the goods. Eagles now lost their last two games. Really require to get their number one QB back fit and in the team. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Always booking on the biggest odds on, KC chiefs, had 7.5 pts, looks only 1 to beat me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 23 minutes ago, fd1972uk said: Always booking on the biggest odds on, KC chiefs, had 7.5 pts, looks only 1 to beat me. Yeah, surprised The Broncos got so close. Especially after last week's trouncing from The Rams. Not a bean from the anytime Touchdown Scorers, so I think I'm going to put that as a one week lucky fluke when I did decent with it and instead just follow @harry_rag picks for that market as he is really good at it. Thankfully the three home teams all delivered the goods in the money line matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Tbh I'm getting all my bets back looks already like jets game is done for me too with ta scorers. Did lose out on miami game too with td scorers, only Hill.coming in. Think on next week will bet against the biggest odds on winner with + as its getting a bit consistent, that's been like 1/9 and now 2/15 and decided to.go - on it which has cost me. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 2, 2023 Author Share Posted January 2, 2023 9 hours ago, fd1972uk said: Tbh I'm getting all my bets back looks already like jets game is done for me too with ta scorers. Did lose out on miami game too with td scorers, only Hill.coming in. Think on next week will bet against the biggest odds on winner with + as its getting a bit consistent, that's been like 1/9 and now 2/15 and decided to.go - on it which has cost me. Wow, yeah 2 from 15 is shocking. You may have come across a decent method there in going with the reverse from now on. Best of luck with it mate. fd1972uk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Bit of good fortune last night with the 2 losers being with 365 who only allowed me just under half the desired stake. Would have been just better than break even to level stakes but a bit better as it turns out. @MinellaWorksop not sure I deserve to be described as “really good at it”! I’ll have to bring the season to date total up to date later. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 2, 2023 Author Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Bit of good fortune last night with the 2 losers being with 365 who only allowed me just under half the desired stake. Would have been just better than break even to level stakes but a bit better as it turns out. @MinellaWorksop not sure I deserve to be described as “really good at it”! I’ll have to bring the season to date total up to date later. Lol, well to be fair mate your selections deliver the goods often so compared to my TD scorer attempts it definitely feels like your selections are really good. Updated figures for my seasonal stats: Anytime Touchdown Scorers StrikeRate: 4/16 , P/L: -7.75pts Money line Games StrikeRate: 15/23 , P/L: +4.38pts General thoughts and things that took my eye in this week's games: Chargers keep their momentum going with another win. 49ers grind out an impressive Overtime win away at The Raiders. Packers and Buccaneers hitting some interesting form with their wily QB's as we get closer to the Playoffs. Dolphins now lost 5 in a row. Did not see this coming as we headed into December. Eagles really require Jaleon Hurts back in the side. Two games without him, two defeats. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 5 hours ago, harry_rag said: Bit of good fortune last night with the 2 losers being with 365 who only allowed me just under half the desired stake. Would have been just better than break even to level stakes but a bit better as it turns out. @MinellaWorksop not sure I deserve to be described as “really good at it”! I’ll have to bring the season to date total up to date later. My total season loss on all NFL bets is 89.63 points which breaks down as follows: "Specials" (fun/novelty bets that I'm staying away from now) -36 points from 4 bets TD scorer doubles/trebles etc -68 points from 3 bets (stopped doing those as I realised singles would have been better) TD scorer singles +12.37 points from 48 bets with an ROI of 2.75% (losses in September and November, profit in the other months). +42.57 points with an ROI of 11.2% from October onwards, maybe random but could be a reminder to wait for form to be established and possibility that my selection method has improved over time. I have 196 players in my data sample so far, 79 of whom have been available with the bookies at my target price or better. Blindly backing them all would have returned +3.45 points with an ROI of 4.37%. (I've tended to stay away from odds on shots hence fewer real money bets), MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 On the subject of odds on shots, I noted that they were profitable to back blindly last season but that hasn't been the case so far this season. 99 bets would have cost you 4.14 points with an ROI of -4.18%. However, if you extend that to every selection at evens or less it becomes 125 bets returning +5.86 points with an ROI of 4.69%. Conversely, adding the even money shots into the mix last season reduces the profit to pretty much break even. It does support the conclusion that you're more likely to find value at the top of the market though, with prices seeming to be pretty close to fair. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Was tempted on the Bill's game with diggs again but decided against it in end. Would probably have been voided after that horrific incident with the Bill's player, hope he is OK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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