2023 Anytime Goalscorer System

[harry_rag]

10 points on Morata (A Madrid) at 2.68

[harry_rag]

10 points on Alvarez at 23/10 with Hills

[harry_rag]

6 from 11 since the last update (Gonzalez, Beradi, Ben-Yedder, de Tomas, Sanabria and Alvarez)

That makes it 46 winners from 132 bets so far for a profit of 129.81 points with an ROI of 9.84%.

20 points lost on 2 bets posted in error.

Current "target" ROI based on overall sample is 12.58% (now based on 516 bets from 3002 selections).

[Smiles Tennis]

Nice work mate. 

[harry_rag]

10 points on Kubo (R Sociedad) at 11/5 with 365

(Missed kick off, taken same price after 5 mins in running).

[alexcaruso808]

Thanks Harry, great tipping as usual.   👍👍

[harry_rag]

10 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks Harry, great tipping as usual.   👍👍

These bets on a hot streak at the moment (pushing the ROI up towards the "target" based on all the data). ROI currently running at 4.45% overall for my goalscorer bets, 193 wins from 734 bets this year.

Done Dembele at 7/2 for Barca but unlikely to be a bet for this system unless he starts up front instead of Lew!

[harry_rag]

26 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Done Dembele at 7/2 for Barca but unlikely to be a bet for this system unless he starts up front instead of Lew!

Not starting! Larin was going to be a system bet at 2.95 but was cut to 2.6 which changes him to no bet. Raphina ok but need 4.4 to take him as a B system bet.

[harry_rag]

2 in the Hibs and Celtic game. Good old Paddy won't allow me a tenner on an 11/4 shot! 

7.27 points on Nisbet at 11/4 PP and 10 on Haksabanovic at 13/5 with Uni

[alexcaruso808]

Harry, would Rashford be a consideration for your system?  I know no lineups have been announced, but his goal minutes are 24 - 27 on SpreadEx.  If he was in the lineup, would you bet on him?

 

 

[harry_rag]

40 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Harry, would Rashford be a consideration for your system?  I know no lineups have been announced, but his goal minutes are 24 - 27 on SpreadEx.  If he was in the lineup, would you bet on him?

 

 

He's up to 25-28 with them now and is 26-29 with SPIN which makes his "market" price (best sell and buy) 26-28. That gives a midpoint of 27 (the value I use for system purposes). To be a potential system bets I need both firms to be quoting the goal minutes (2 opinions being better than just the one).

Next consideration is "best bookies" price as per Odds Checker and he falls at the first hurdle as he's only 6/5 best and my minimum is 13/10. He'd have to be 2.67 or better to qualify as a system bet for me.

Looking at his form to see if I might be inclined to back him as a "studied" bet I'd say not. At one point he was so prolific that he was worth following in most games but he's tailed off slightly since being in and out of the team. He's missed the last couple of games, only scored in 1 of the 5 previous starts since being out for 3 games, has scored in 3 of his last 10 starts but 10 of the last 20. Go back far enough and you find the convincing form but there's enough doubt about recent form to put me off taking him at a short price.

[alexcaruso808]

Thanks Harry, I was reading through the thread and trying to better understand your selections. 

[harry_rag]

Incidentally, if you wanted a very simple system for picking goalscorer bets based purely on the spread and fixed odds prices you could go with this:

Back any player whose spread price is 20 or more provided the best bookies price is 13/10 (2.3) or more.

Based on data from around 3000 players such selections have an ROI of around 1% and you'll get better on BF sometimes. Worth knowing as a starting point and if you're looking for a component in a Bet Builder that is fair at worst. @MCLARKE maybe a pity I can't get such selections in a L15 with double the odds for one winner! 

"Spread price" = the market midpoint as per the Rashford example above.

"Best bookies price" is taken from Oddschecker. I only use firms I've had accounts with to avoid the occasional fly by night firm who offer silly prices to attract black type but you probably wouldn't go far wrong just looking at all firms at the moment. My "panel" of 15 firms is the 12 from 365 on the left up to Boyles on the right plus Lads, Betway and SPIN. 

 

[alexcaruso808]

Thanks again Harry, great post with a nice starting point for a system.  

[harry_rag]

I've done the rest of the players who are priced in system range. Martial is the only other potential bet for this system (spreads 20-35) and he would be a bet at 13/5 which is a massive standout. He'd be a bet at anything over 2/1 and is shorter than that everywhere else. Shame it's not with 365 who offer "void if not starting" as I've been burnt a few times lately backing players who end up coming on as sub.

Weghorst, Antony and Fernandes are all potential "B" system bets (spreads 15-19) but are shorter than I'd be willing to back them at unless I could get my target price on the exchange.

[harry_rag]

12 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Martial is the only other potential bet for this system (spreads 20-35) and he would be a bet at 13/5 which is a massive standout. He'd be a bet at anything over 2/1 and is shorter than that everywhere else. Shame it's not with 365 who offer "void if not starting" as I've been burnt a few times lately backing players who end up coming on as sub.

A quick look at Uni's rules (and a post on their forum) suggests that they void anytime bets where a player doesn't start so, with that in mind, 10 points on Martial at 13/5 with Uni (should be voided if he doesn't start).

I'm happy to back him at that price. I'll be querying it should the bet not be voided if he starts on the bench. I'll post an update if it ends up not being a bet for this system but his spread price would need to drop quite a bit for it not to qualify.

[alexcaruso808]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

A quick look at Uni's rules (and a post on their forum) suggests that they void anytime bets where a player doesn't start so, with that in mind, 10 points on Martial at 13/5 with Uni (should be voided if he doesn't start).

I'm happy to back him at that price. I'll be querying it should the bet not be voided if he starts on the bench. I'll post an update if it ends up not being a bet for this system but his spread price would need to drop quite a bit for it not to qualify.

Speaking of subs, last night you tipped Haksabanovic to score and I backed him on your advice.  After 20 minutes he was subbed and I didn't think any more of it - it was only a £5 so no big loss.  Turns out Bet365 gave me £5 bet credits because he was subbed in the first half - I didn't know they did that!

[harry_rag]

18 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Speaking of subs, last night you tipped Haksabanovic to score and I backed him on your advice.  After 20 minutes he was subbed and I didn't think any more of it - it was only a £5 so no big loss.  Turns out Bet365 gave me £5 bet credits because he was subbed in the first half - I didn't know they did that!

I was aware of the offer but pretty sure I don’t get it. Applies to most player markets if a player is subbed off before the break. I think it might mean a bet builder is voided if it included that player.

[harry_rag]

Well there's the two sides of waiting for line ups. No Rashford means that Martial's price has contracted quite a bit so I'm glad I was able to take the 13/5 on a (presumably) void if not starting basis. Fernandes's goal minutes have gone up in Rashford's absence meaning he would have been a nice bet at the price available earlier. Ladbrokes a bit slower to cut him so I'm on at 13/5 which is a "B" bet. I should say that my historical returns on him are poor so I don't rush to back him unless he's a system pick.

[harry_rag]

@alexcaruso808 Thanks for your question about Rashford earlier as I might not have grabbed that price about Martial if it wasn’t for that. You led me to take an early look at the game and check out Uni’s rules on non-starters, which is worth knowing for future reference.

I think that might just push the ROI for this thread above the target ROI based on the overall data sample, for however long that might last. The decision to switch off one of the filters at the start of this month has certainly paid off as the additional selections have performed really well.

 

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Fernandes's goal minutes have gone up in Rashford's absence meaning he would have been a nice bet at the price available earlier. Ladbrokes a bit slower to cut him so I'm on at 13/5 which is a "B" bet. I should say that my historical returns on him are poor so I don't rush to back him unless he's a system pick.

Bit lucky in that the numbers aligned to make him a system pick. Apparently he hit the bar from close range before slotting the penalty home. Shame it didn’t line up to be able to double him up with Martial at best odds.

[harry_rag]

3 from 4 since the last update (Kubo, Nisbet and Martial)

That makes it 49 winners from 136 bets so far for a profit of 187.8 points with an ROI of 13.84%.

20 points lost on 2 bets posted in error.

Current "target" ROI based on overall sample is 12.48% (now based on 520 bets from 3020 selections).

With 4 winners from 7 bets the additional selections due to the rule change this month are showing a profit but the spreadsheet seems to have gone awry in terms of tracking the old v new comparison. I'll sort that out at month end if not before.

[harry_rag]

10 points on Morris (Luton) at 13/5 with 365

[harry_rag]

10 points on Firmono at 6/4 with Uni and 10 on Jesus at 6/4 with Fred. 10 points on Moreno at 2.9

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10 points on Griezmann at 5/2 with PP

[harry_rag]

18 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

10 points on Griezmann at 5/2 with PP

Hang fire on that being a system bet; I'm on it anyway but I jumped the gun in terms of posting. Need to see how SX price him up yet.

[harry_rag]

Bet stands. 

[harry_rag]

3 from 5 since the last update (Firmino, Jesus and Griezmann)

That makes it 52 winners from 141 bets so far for a profit of 222.6 points with an ROI of 15.82%.

20 points lost on 2 bets posted in error.

Current "target" ROI based on overall sample is 12.36% (now based on 525 bets from 3049 selections).

[harry_rag]

On 5/1/2023 at 4:06 PM, harry_rag said:

• Applying the final filter we get 420 bets and +52.76 points with an ROI of 12.56%
• BUT if we switch off the first filter we end up with 490 bets and +60.83 points with an ROI of 12.41%. That's an additional 70 bets with an ROI of 11.54%

The above was the reasoning for the change I made at the start of this month. The aggregate figures for the old basis would now be 448 bets at +60.93 points with an ROI of 13.6% while the now current basis is 525 bets at +74.81 points with an ROI of 14.25%. The 77 additional bets are at +13.88 points with an ROI of 18.02%

This month the ROI for the old system would have been 29.2% from 28 bets and the new system 39.9% from 35 bets. With 4 winners from 7 the additional bets have an ROI of 82.9%

I think it's fair to say there's a degree of good fortune in this month's results, particularly with the additional bets. I'm obviously happy with the decision to include them so far and will continue to monitor the comparison between the old and new basis (though things are likely to quieten down now for a few months).

[harry_rag]

May was the best month this year in terms of monetary return for this system, my "studied" (non-system) bets and overall. It was the first month where all 3 bet types (A and B systems and "studied" bets) showed a profit. This is the ROI for each bet type by month.

Month	A Bets	B Bets	Non-System	Total
Jan	-39.04%	32.73%	31.76%	13.55%
Feb	45.41%	-4.70%	11.15%	11.93%
Mar	9.06%	-66.73%	-11.84%	-20.37%
Apr	27.21%	18.12%	-40.64%	-5.31%
May	40.42%	4.43%	23.34%	22.35%
Total	14.56%	2.91%	5.70%	5.48%

All 3 bet types have chucked in one shocker of a month so far. I'm most confident in this system given best returns and large historical data sample. The B system remains marginal but worth persevering with. Maybe study the data over the close season and see if there are any obvious improvements. Studied bets doing ok, just need to keep prioritising quality over quantity and trying to avoid anymore months quite as bad as April was! Be nice to see the overall ROI edge slightly closer to double digits.