Racing Chat- Wednesday 28th December

[The Brigadier]

ITV Racing keep it coming with another six races thrown at us today in the shape of four from Leopardstown where the feature race is the Savills Chase and the return of As Plus Tard and a brace of handicaps from Leicester. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.

 

Leopardstown 1.10

A bumper field with twenty eight hurdlers lining up,for this 3M Pertemps handicap hurdle looking to qualify for the Final at Cheltenham in March. As always it’s a very hard race to get a handle on as many will be looking to protect the handicap mark but finish close enough to qualify so without any inside knowledge bets are best kept to a minimum. The first horse to look at has to be the likely favourite Maxxum, one of a staggering ten runners from the County Meath stables of Gordon Elliott. Maxxum bolted up by an easy nine lengths hard held in a similar race at Navan in November against twenty one rivals and although he’s been shunted up 17lb for that victory should still be competitive under Jack Kennedy who appears to have had the pick of many of the Elliott runners. Leading owner JP McManus has four entries with ‘stable’ jockey Mark Walsh aboard Gavin Cromwell’s Perceval Legallois who is another one who should be in the mix. Such was Maxxum’s ease with which he won last time I’ll take him to small stakes each way with enhanced places in a race that actually doesn’t appeal to me too much.

 

MAXXUM 1/2 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

Leopardstown 1.45

A filed of eleven hurdlers assemble for the three mile Christmas Hurdle run in the memory of young Jack De Bromhead. 2020 winner and last year’s runner up Flooring Porter heads the market and is the highest rated of the runners today. He ran 4th in what is the key form race last time out at Navan over 2m 4F. That contest, the grade 2 Railway Bar Lismullen Hurdle, was won by Home By The Lee by two lengths from Bob Olinger with Ashdale Bob ten lengths further behind in third. Flooring Porter was beaten 12 1/4L but is 9lb better off now and will surely appreciate today’s half a mile further distance. The winner and second re-oppose and it may well be that Henry De Bromhead’s Bob Olinger can turn the tables with that run (his first for 218 days) behind him. He travelled so well to the last and then seemed to fall into a heap with some pundits saying he didn’t put it all in. I’ll go with the ‘blew up’ theory and how apt would it be for De Bromhead to win this contest named in memory of his son who died far too young earlier this year in a riding accident.

 

BOB OLINGER 1 point win @ 10/3 William Hill

 

Leopardstown 2.20

The three mile Savills Chase is a grade one contest and has been won by some very smart chasers over the years. Henry De Bromhead, who has his team in fine form currently running at a 22% win ratio over the past fortnight, saddles his 15L Cheltenham Gold Cup winner As Plus Tard here. A winner of this very contest two years ago and runner up to Galvin in this race last year he was way below his best on his seasonal re-appearance when pulling up in the Betfair Chase at Haydock when a well supported 1/2 chance. The run was too bad to be true and it transpired that he was suffering from a travel related illness. Surely better than that he must be backed at odds against to beat several horses he’s already beaten in his career. Had he not flopped at Haydock he would be going off a very warm odds on favourite here. He’s officially 12lb and upwards better than these and is a confident selection. Kemboy was ahead of Galvin and Conflated when runner up to Envoi Allen (well beaten in King George on Monday) in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase and maybe the one to chase As Plus Tard home.

 

AS PLUS TARD 3 points win @ 6/4 William Hill

 

Leicester 2.35

A nine runner class 3 handicap hurdle run over just short of two miles on heavy ground. Top weight Playful Saint stands out to me despite having to carry the steadier of twelve stone. Trained by Dan Skelton and ridden by his brother Harry, the seven year old has shown decent form in the three outings he’s run since joining the Skelton’s from France. His latest effort when going down by just 3/4L to Love Envoi, a Cheltenham Festival winner last season, was a fine effort and he handles very soft ground well having won on it in March at Wetherby. He will take some beating. Washington has questions to answer now having flopped last time out whilst Jamie Snowden’s handicap debutant Milldam doesn’t look in the same league as my selection. A watchful eye should be kept on the David Pipe trained Martinhal who has fallen 13lb for his last three outings and returns following wind surgery. Playful Saint is a confident selection.

 

PLAYFUL SAINT 3 points win @ 15/8 William Hill

 

Leopardstown 2.55

Only six line up for this 2m 5F Beginners Chase but an intriguing race it is none the less. A warm favourite here is the ex Nicky Henderson trained I Am Maximus who on his first run for the Willie Mullins battalion went down by a short head to the smart Minella Crooner in a similar contest at Fairyhouse. His jumping left something to be desired that day, jumping out to his left and will surely benefit plenty from the outing. At odds on mind he is no value as let’s not forget as a hurdler he would have had 16lb to find with Gentlemansgame who’s making his chasing debut today for Mouse Morris. He should jump a fence as he won his only point to point by 5L (from Boxing Day’s Kempton winner Balco Coastal) and was a very good hurdler winning twice and placed behind the likes of Klassical Dream and Galopin Des Champs. I’ll take him to upset the favourite and win on his chasing debut under Darragh O’Keefe.

 

GENTLEMANSGAME 1 point win @ 11/2 William Hill

 

Leicester 3.10

Ten go to post for this class 3 2m 4F handicap chase which will be run on much less testing ground than the chase course on good ground. Top and bottom weights Tap Tap Boom and Dame Du Soir’s form lines tie in together with slight preference for the latter who won well enough at Cheltenham last time out whilst Dan Skelton’s Our Jet made a promising re-appearance/chasing debut at Southwell a month ago when runner up to Gemirande. He should run well but my fancy is the Nicky Henderson trained Ile De Jersey who should be chasing a hat trick following a win at Southwell on good ground last month prior to falling at the last when having the race sewn up at Taunton on her fencing debut. She looks a progressive chaser from Seven Barrows and under Nico De Boinville can win again having only risen 10lb for those two efforts.

 

ILE DE JERSEY 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

[black rabbit]

Flash Bulb         5 20 New/       1/20th of a pt ew     22/1    { drifted to 66/1 "hills"  i shall have another Pony ew } 1/20th of a pt

Good Time Jonny       1 10 Lep/   1/20th of a pt ew   18/1  {drifted to 40/1   i shall have £25 ew } another 1/20th of a pt invested

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by black rabbit

[jonjo]

More decent racing tomorrow:

I'll take a chance on a four year old in the 12.10 at Leicester, Cuthbert Dibble was getting the hang of things late on and was closing towards the finish, that hurdle debut should have sharpened up his hurdling and with natural progression he should go close here in receipt of 6lbs from the previous winners in the race. Currently around 5.5 on the exchanges. Might also back to place depending on the price tomorrow.............................come to win his race, traded down to 1.5 in running and then blundered the last ?, did get 1.85 in the place market, small compensation though, needs to step up in trip.

Dan Skelton doesnt send many up to Catterick, in the 12.28 I like Don Hollow here, he has ran and acquitted himself failry well in two better hurdles races than this, last time he wasnt given a hard time, held up at the back and was both bumped and hampered on his way round and did well to finish fourth, down slightly in Clas and up in distance might well do the trick for him. Currently 4.0 on the exchanges.............................................................................WON at a Bfsp of 4.4 ??

 

In the 12.35 at Leopardstown a huge field of 27 go to post. I like the chances of the second favourite here in A J Martin's improving type Unanswered. Over Hurdles he won last time out in a Class 3 at Cheltenham, that race looks to be higher class than this race and he gets in here with a mark just 2lb higher than that win, his previous hurdle race saw him win at Punchestown from a mark of just 89, he's not only on the up over hurdles but also on the flat where his mark has risen from 47 to 75 this year and there could still be more to come from the 5 year old. Currently trading at around the 4.1 mark on the exchanges.............got that all wrong, never in it.

13.03 Catterick again, in the 13.03 race, Haas Boy had the race sewn up at Ludlow just a week ago before falling when 9 lengths clear of the field, this field looks slightly easier and connections are getting him out before a 4lb rise i the weights kicks in. Short enough at 11/10 with the books and 2.98 Exchanges..........................................................................big dfrit and jumped poorly, had no chance against the gambled on winner.

1.20 at Leicester is a Seller and I'm taking on the odds on favourite, who should win on ratings but his performances of late have been pretty poor. The second favourite is around the 5.1 mark and is a Stable Switcher here having his first run for Martin Keighley, Ambassador has some decent form in the book in the context of this race and is the choice.....................................poor choice, never in it.

1.45 Leopardstown is the Christmas Hurdle, Flooring Porter probably found 20 furlongs on the sharp side for him on seasonal debut when only fourth behind Home By The Lee with the reopposing Bob Olinger in the filed once again. Flooring Porter has a huge 9lb pull in the weights, over 3 miles that is a lot of weight in my opinion and he is taken to reverse the form and the current price of around 3.55 looks about right to me.........beaten fare and square, winner looks a big improver this season, one to watch.

Back to Catterick for the 2.13 race and the top weight Arthurs Quay is selected. This is his easiest task since joining the Haslam stable, last time out he was barely put into the race and finished a well beaten third, the form of that race looks fairly solid and hopefull the slight drop in grade and distance will see him in a better light, not to mention a further 3lb drop in the weights. Trading at  9.8 and around 3.3 to place. Win and place bet.......................................................................drifted all day and went off at a Bfsp of 12.8 what a fab price WON at a Bfsp of 12.8 ??? Nice profits for the day.

The Savills Chase look a cracking renewal with five of the field rated 160 or higher. A Plus Tard lost out narrowly to Galvin in this last year and was perhaps waited with for too long that day, his seasonal debut was too bad to be true, there must have been something wrong that day, hopefully whetever the problem lets hope its been righted and a better performance will surely come from A Plus Tard this time round. He's currently around the 2.68 mark...NON RUNNER

 

As always lay off prices will be placed in running.

 

Good luck everyone whatever you are on.? 

Edited December 28, 2022 by jonjo

[kensland]

Catterick. 

1.38. Bretney      4/1.

12.28. Astromachia       4/1.    2nd.

Singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited December 28, 2022 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Leicester	12.45	Gentleman At Arms	3/1
Catterick	1.38	Pilot Show	14/1
Leopardstown	1.45	Zanahiyr	11/2
Leicester	1.55	Happy Du Mesnil	18/1
Leicester	2.35	Heros	20/1
Leicester	3.10	Honneur D'Ajonc	18/1
Catterick	3.25	Notnowlinda	11/8

[Tedthewolf]

1PT e/w 1.10 Leop- FALCON EIGHT 10/1 Corals bog 6 places

0.5pts e/w 2;35 LEI-HEROS 20'1 bog 5 places 

0.5 pts e/w 3.10 LEI-THE HOLLOW GINGE 20/1 not bog  4places

4pts invested 

Running Total PROFIT  +47.80pts?

Good Luck & Happy New Year To You All.

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Tedthewolf

[Gary66]

3-10 Leicester the hollow ginge might well be completely out of form today he goes round Leicester where he's won before he's very well handicapped 22/1 is to big

[Tedthewolf]

4 minutes ago, Gary66 said:

3-10 Leicester the hollow ginge might well be completely out of form today he goes round Leicester where he's won before he's very well handicapped 22/1 is to big

Yip Totally agree with that Gary?

[kensland]

Leicester. 

Single. 

3.40. Keplerian       4/1

Good luck all. 

[Gary66]

14 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Yip Totally agree with that Gary?

Thanks ted the 22s was to big it's gone

[kensland]

Leopardstown. 

Single. 

1.10. Falcon Eight        10/1.

Good luck all. 

[azzybear]

trac 11.53 

[azzybear]

red dirt road 12.10

[richard-westwood]

 

1235 leop

Just a,quick one .....unanswered beat 120 + rated horses by 6+  lengths last time so arguably could be rated as high as 130 .....he runs off 113 ..!!!......I'll try 8pts win at 15/8 fir a bit of fun and hope I'm right

Edited December 28, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Ryanpete]

Bob o linger 1.45 leop 100/30

Hope everyone's had a good Christmas and happy new year guys 

[richard-westwood]

310 leic ....same system as above race ....Dame du soir last race the average adjusted ratings were 115 for the 3rd 4th 5th and he just beat them arguably making him capable of 115 ...he runs off 106 ....so I'll try 5pt ew 6/1 ....and a 5pt win double with unanswered above 

[Zilzalian]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

5yo selections

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Leicester	12.45	Gentleman At Arms	3/1
Catterick	1.38	Pilot Show	14/1
Leopardstown	1.45	Zanahiyr	11/2
Leicester	1.55	Happy Du Mesnil	18/1
Leicester	2.35	Heros	20/1
Leicester	3.10	Honneur D'Ajonc	18/1
Catterick	3.25	Notnowlinda	11/8

heros is a great price imo

[azzybear]

popong 1.10 ew 

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

 

1235 leop

Just a,quick one .....unanswered beat 120 + rated horses by 6+  lengths last time so arguably could be rated as high as 130 .....he runs off 113 ..!!!......I'll try 8pts win at 15/8 fir a bit of fun and hope I'm right

Well that was disappointing run of the year ....just didn't turn up for whatever reason .....one to watch 

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

LEOP	1.45	Zanahiyr	5/1
LEIC	2.35	Milldam	9/2
LEIC	3.10	Honneur DAjonc	12/1

 

[maxironchin]

13.45 Leopardstown

Sire de Berlais.  2pt EW

Difficult to choose the winner here, so looking for a place.in first 4. The selection has had better form in the past yet has the age and experience to take on the younger horses today. Likes the soft ground yet still managed a decent 5th on heavy ground LTO.

 

 

[fd1972uk]

Flooring porter or Bob Olinger please at 1345, preferably the latter win and FP 2nd or 3rd

[azzybear]

given ..home by the Lee 1.45 ew at that price 

[fd1972uk]

Soon as they started on the red armbands was obvious who was going to win, lol.

Had used a free bet on it via WH but small win.

Will use free bets from betfair if I get a chance today or if not over next couple.

[jonjo]

17 hours ago, jonjo said:

More decent racing tomorrow:

I'll take a chance on a four year old in the 12.10 at Leicester, Cuthbert Dibble was getting the hang of things late on and was closing towards the finish, that hurdle debut should have sharpened up his hurdling and with natural progression he should go close here in receipt of 6lbs from the previous winners in the race. Currently around 5.5 on the exchanges. Might also back to place depending on the price tomorrow.............................come to win his race, traded down to 1.5 in running and then blundered the last ?, did get 1.85 in the place market, small compensation though, needs to step up in trip.

Dan Skelton doesnt send many up to Catterick, in the 12.28 I like Don Hollow here, he has ran and acquitted himself failry well in two better hurdles races than this, last time he wasnt given a hard time, held up at the back and was both bumped and hampered on his way round and did well to finish fourth, down slightly in Clas and up in distance might well do the trick for him. Currently 4.0 on the exchanges.............................................................................WON at a Bfsp of 4.4 ??

 

In the 12.35 at Leopardstown a huge field of 27 go to post. I like the chances of the second favourite here in A J Martin's improving type Unanswered. Over Hurdles he won last time out in a Class 3 at Cheltenham, that race looks to be higher class than this race and he gets in here with a mark just 2lb higher than that win, his previous hurdle race saw him win at Punchestown from a mark of just 89, he's not only on the up over hurdles but also on the flat where his mark has risen from 47 to 75 this year and there could still be more to come from the 5 year old. Currently trading at around the 4.1 mark on the exchanges.............got that all wrong, never in it.

13.03 Catterick again, in the 13.03 race, Haas Boy had the race sewn up at Ludlow just a week ago before falling when 9 lengths clear of the field, this field looks slightly easier and connections are getting him out before a 4lb rise i the weights kicks in. Short enough at 11/10 with the books and 2.98 Exchanges..........................................................................big dfrit and jumped poorly, had no chance against the gambled on winner.

1.20 at Leicester is a Seller and I'm taking on the odds on favourite, who should win on ratings but his performances of late have been pretty poor. The second favourite is around the 5.1 mark and is a Stable Switcher here having his first run for Martin Keighley, Ambassador has some decent form in the book in the context of this race and is the choice.....................................poor choice, never in it.

1.45 Leopardstown is the Christmas Hurdle, Flooring Porter probably found 20 furlongs on the sharp side for him on seasonal debut when only fourth behind Home By The Lee with the reopposing Bob Olinger in the filed once again. Flooring Porter has a huge 9lb pull in the weights, over 3 miles that is a lot of weight in my opinion and he is taken to reverse the form and the current price of around 3.55 looks about right to me.........beaten fare and square, winner looks a big improver this season, one to watch.

Back to Catterick for the 2.13 race and the top weight Arthurs Quay is selected. This is his easiest task since joining the Haslam stable, last time out he was barely put into the race and finished a well beaten third, the form of that race looks fairly solid and hopefull the slight drop in grade and distance will see him in a better light, not to mention a further 3lb drop in the weights. Trading at  9.8 and around 3.3 to place. Win and place bet.......................................................................drifted all day and went off at a Bfsp of 12.8 what a fab price WON at a Bfsp of 12.8 ??? Nice profits for the day.

The Savills Chase look a cracking renewal with five of the field rated 160 or higher. A Plus Tard lost out narrowly to Galvin in this last year and was perhaps waited with for too long that day, his seasonal debut was too bad to be true, there must have been something wrong that day, hopefully whetever the problem lets hope its been righted and a better performance will surely come from A Plus Tard this time round. He's currently around the 2.68 mark...NON RUNNER

 

As always lay off prices will be placed in running.

 

Good luck everyone whatever you are on.? 

Nice profits for the day again, just a shame that Cuthbert Dibble blundered away his chance, shame that A Plus Tard is a non runner, just hope the horse recovers fully from the knock he received. 

[azzybear]

dam due soir 3.10 just a small bet for interest 

[richard-westwood]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

310 leic ....same system as above race ....Dame du soir last race the average adjusted ratings were 115 for the 3rd 4th 5th and he just beat them arguably making him capable of 115 ...he runs off 106 ....so I'll try 5pt ew 6/1 ....and a 5pt win double with unanswered above 

Ran well considering ground was against him .. close 3rd