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Racing Chat-Monday 5th December.


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A horse having his first NH run for more than a year is Flat White in the 1.55 at Lingfield. He showed promise in his previous 3 attempts over hurdles. Since that last hurdle run he has won two flat races and finished placed in another seeing his mark rise from 58 to 71, hus hurdle mark has actually dropped a pound to 104, its not a given thing that improvement shown on the flat automatically corresponds with improvement over hurdles but the form of his last hurdle race has worked out well, the winner hasnt run since but the second went on to finish third to Dashel Drasher in a Class 2 race while the 3rd home that day won a Class 3 Nov Handicap Hurdle next time up and the 5th horse home also won next time up, Flat White was sandwiched between the 3rd and 5th that day. Currently drifting around the 5 mark, I'll also back in the place market nearer the off, win and place bet.....6.0 and 1.86 to lace taken...........traded to 1.75 in running before fading, finishing 5th.

 

An hour later in the 2.55 at Lingfield Breaking Waves has shown improved for of late having dropped a waydown the weights. Winning a Class 4 earning a 9lb rise that stopped him winning next time out in a higher grade of race, the winner went in again next time up, back into a clsss4 here, still off a mark slightly lower than he has won off in the past should see him with a decent chance today. Drifting on betfair at the moment around the 6.4 mark, I'll also back in the 3Tbp market nearer the off.......6.2 and 1.97 taken......traded to 1.56 in running before finishing 3rd, place money only.

 

Good luck whatever you play today.

Edited by jonjo
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Couple from my tracker.

3.10 Muss - Creative Control - 7/2 Bet365 - Was given a very tender ride LTO, never even pushed let alone driven by claiming jockey. Brian Hughes takes over and trainer Donald McCain is in fair form (10 wins from last 42 runners)

7.20 Wolv - Mobashr - 9/2 with various firms. - Was severely eased when beaten LTO to finish 9th of 10, but only beaten just over 4 lengths. Main danger looks to be Karl Burkes Tothenines who wears 1st time cheekpieces.

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2.55 Ling Breaking Waves 9/2 (1 pt win at 6.6)

3.10 Muss Get With It 10/3

4.20 Wolv Politics 5/1 (1 pt win at 6.4)

1 x 1 pt win Trixie = 4 pts with a poss return of 225.83

Singles and savers

2.55 Lin Man Of Gold 1 pt win at 2.44

3.10 Muss Creative Control 1.55 win at 3.7

4.20 Wolves My Boy Jack 2 pts win at 3.5

7.20 Wolves Have a combination forecast on @richard-westwood's selections but have included Mobashr as well just in case = 3 pts poss return 6.0 to 34 pts.  Put 1 pt wins on Maobashr and To The Nines 7/2 and 4.2 plus 0.50 ew at16/1 Royal Muscateer = 6 pts outlay.  Can't lose can I? ?

Total stakes = 16.55 today

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A few unexpected results scuppered any chance of a profit today.  My Boy Jack very disappointing.  Two winners and unfortunately Politics got stuffed by an outsider.  The net loss was 8.46.  My MTD is -21.98 and YTD -285.42

Three meetings tomorrow in the UK with a class 3 in the 2.05 at Fontwell that looks interesting

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

720 wolv 

Tothenines   8.4  3/1 

Royal musketeer   8.2 18.0 

Mobashr   7.9  

Tricky race .....probably hinges on how well mobashr takes to wolv surface but I'd rather stick with proven top 2 

6pt win tothenines ...4pt saver royal 

Beaten by a first timer on the all weather ....fahey special 

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19 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

5yo selections

COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS 
Lingfield 0.25 Happy Boy 8/1
Lingfield 1.25 Albert Van Ornum 4/1
Musselburgh 2.10 Al Zaraqaan 1/1
Wolverhampton 7.20 Business 9/1

I've performed a detailed analysis for November and this continues to be profitable, with an AE of 1.07. There were 220 winners from 1,790 runners. However at level stakes there was a loss of 299 points so you would have been advised to avoid the longer odds. Those at forecast odds above 11/1 returned 19 wins from 784 selections and a loss of 437 points. Those at shorter odds recorded 200 winners from 1,004 runners and a profit of 138 points.

The returns for those races where there is only 1 selection are even better, with an AE of 1.13. Again it would have been better to stick with those at shorter odds. Those at odds less than 8/1 returned 32 wins from 91 selections and a profit of 32 points compared to those at longer odds which recorded 3 wins from 97 selections and a loss of 72 points.

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On 12/5/2022 at 11:40 AM, Bang on said:

Couple from my tracker.

3.10 Muss - Creative Control - 7/2 Bet365 - Was given a very tender ride LTO, never even pushed let alone driven by claiming jockey. Brian Hughes takes over and trainer Donald McCain is in fair form (10 wins from last 42 runners)

7.20 Wolv - Mobashr - 9/2 with various firms. - Was severely eased when beaten LTO to finish 9th of 10, but only beaten just over 4 lengths. Main danger looks to be Karl Burkes Tothenines who wears 1st time cheekpieces.

Creative Control - WON easy enough

Mobashr - lost 3rd

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