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Racing Chat-Friday 18th November.


kensland
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The second race at Ascot is a fascinating Novices Handicap Chase. I'm a massive Paul Nicholls fan but fancy one against Solo in this. Ollie Murphys Thunder Rock looks a chaser to follow in the making judging by the way he won on his Chase debut at Uttoxeter last time out. The runner up, Brief Times came out and won another Class 3 easily, a small field but he couldnt have done any more than win by 27 lengths. I think Thunder Rocks success was in a stronger race than that won by Solo, so Thunder Rock it is, currently around 3.4 on the Exchanges......3.4 was nice to get Won comfortably 🙂

Over the water in the 7.00 Dundalk, Marsa is building up a decent record on the all weather surface at Dundalk, one second and three handicap wins from five runs to date, the one failure was when given a poor ride by a claimer in her second maiden race. Currently 8/1 at the bookies and around the 11 mark on the exchanges. Its a competitive big field handicap of 17 runners and pays four places so its win and place with a saver on a stable switcher that is Hot Rocket....... Won 8/1.....

 

Good luck whatever you are on.

Edited by jonjo
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Quite a few interesting ones today, can't post them all.

2.55 Chep - Saint Segal - 4/1 - 1st time in a handicap, trainers only runner (19% course strike rate). It is a NOVICE hcp chase which are not my fav, but looks worth an interest.

1.20 Catt - Spot on Soph - Ev (but generally odds on) - wouldn't normally back this short but looks fairly solid. Couple of CD wins and trainer Sam England is in good form (2 wins, 2 placed, from 9 runners).

3.05 Catt - Who's in the box - 4/1 - Trainer Nick Kent in very good form (2 wins from just 3 runers - inc a nice 13/2 yesterday 🤑. It is his only runner and has been supported.

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I am not too happy about all the long absences of horses in their races today, especially at Ascot.  The Jumps season seems to be taking an age to settle in.

2.05 Asc Flegmatic 0.50 ew at 18/1 @silver fox.  This is a Skelton horse that will be fit and looks a good price.  I quite like the look of Do Your Job but @The Brigadierrecomneded Your Darling at 8/1 EW and the price has gone to about 7/2 so not a bet for me

Back later.  Struggling to get a Trixie together.

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2 hours ago, Bang on said:

Quite a few interesting ones today, can't post them all.

2.55 Chep - Saint Segal - 4/1 - 1st time in a handicap, trainers only runner (19% course strike rate). It is a NOVICE hcp chase which are not my fav, but looks worth an interest.

1.20 Catt - Spot on Soph - Ev (but generally odds on) - wouldn't normally back this short but looks fairly solid. Couple of CD wins and trainer Sam England is in good form (2 wins, 2 placed, from 9 runners).

3.05 Catt - Who's in the box - 4/1 - Trainer Nick Kent in very good form (2 wins from just 3 runers - inc a nice 13/2 yesterday 🤑. It is his only runner and has been supported.

Saint Segal - WON

Spot on Soph - lost 2nd

Who's in the box - lost fell

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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I am not too happy about all the long absences of horses in their races today, especially at Ascot.  The Jumps season seems to be taking an age to settle in.

2.05 Asc Flegmatic 0.50 ew at 18/1 @silver fox.  This is a Skelton horse that will be fit and looks a good price.  I quite like the look of Do Your Job but @The Brigadierrecomneded Your Darling at 8/1 EW and the price has gone to about 7/2 so not a bet for me

Back later.  Struggling to get a Trixie together.

I caught a bit of the Nikki Henderson interview when getting in from work regarding Constitution Hill and him may or maybe not running tomorrow due to despite 41mm of rain at Ascot the ground being to fast still & that several courses who are experiencing deluges of rain it's just not making that much difference with the goings due to the long hot summer , definitely strange goings on , it's hard to know what the real going is going to be .

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22 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

I caught a bit of the Nikki Henderson interview when getting in from work regarding Constitution Hill and him may or maybe not running tomorrow due to despite 41mm of rain at Ascot the ground being to fast still & that several courses who are experiencing deluges of rain it's just not making that much difference with the goings due to the long hot summer , definitely strange goings on , it's hard to know what the real going is going to be .

He doesn’t need much of an excuse not to run the star horses . Does Constitution Hill need it to be Soft? Doesn’t seem to me that he does . 

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I am not too happy about all the long absences of horses

This is another area where it pays to go against the crowd. You (and many others) over emphasize the importance of this.

For NH, horses that have had a layoff of more than 100 days have an AE of 1.02, which from a sample of over 40,000 is very impressive.

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Good day today it turned out, bet on virgin mb offers and b365 4/1 offers, bobhopeornohope got me back a free bet, gipsy de choisel unfortunately not.

But luck with itv bets as both came in, and gives me a free go at the first 4/1 race tomorrow. Also b365 are offering a free bet to be used at ascot tomorrow to customers (or selection of at least).

Will probably use coral bet bundle too offer.

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4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

This is another area where it pays to go against the crowd. You (and many others) over emphasize the importance of this.

For NH, horses that have had a layoff of more than 100 days have an AE of 1.02, which from a sample of over 40,000 is very impressive.

Haha, you love your stats.  The problem I have is like the 2.40 at Ascot today where I napped Cat Tiger.  Seven of the nine going to post had been off for over 100 days.  Hence how does one choose which of those with an AE of 102 will be the winner? I thought that Nicholl's horse would be one of the fittest.  Instead it made loads of mistakes with shoddy jumping.  The fittest turned out to be the Gary Moore horse Larry.  The only clue I can find to this one was is it was napped by RP Psdta and had the top RP rating. Just noticed one other clue and this was that Larry won over C&D last October. Isn't hindsight wonderful?

Edited by The Equaliser
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6 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Hence how does one choose which of those with an AE of 102 will be the winner?

The optimum period is 184 days to 265 days. For this period the AE is 1.07. They have made a profit in each of the last 9 years. The sample size is smaller but still over 14,000.

In the race you mention this would reduce the field from 9 to 5 !

I will keep a check on these over the next few weeks, as you would expect most of the runners are in November. There will be a lot of selections, over 30 per day. 

The only additional criteria is that those with odds of over 50/1 will be excluded.

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  • 2 months later...
On 11/19/2022 at 1:05 AM, MCLARKE said:

The optimum period is 184 days to 265 days. For this period the AE is 1.07. They have made a profit in each of the last 9 years. The sample size is smaller but still over 14,000.

In the race you mention this would reduce the field from 9 to 5 !

I will keep a check on these over the next few weeks, as you would expect most of the runners are in November. There will be a lot of selections, over 30 per day. 

The only additional criteria is that those with odds of over 50/1 will be excluded.

Again this continues to be profitable with an AE of 1.06 up to the end of January.

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