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Premier League Predictions > Dec 26th - 28th


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  • 5 weeks later...

Everton vs Wolves

Odds: (1) 2.25 (x) 3.30 (2) 3.20

Games on Boxing Day (December 26)
They have not played at Goodison Park on Boxing Day. However, in four Boxing Day matches, all of which were held at Molineux Stadium, Wolves won 3 while Everton won 1.
1974: Wolves 2-0 Everton
1970: Wolves 2-0 Everton
1904: Wolves 0-3 Everton
1901: Wolves 2-1 Everton
H2H: Games on Monday
On  Monday, Everton has not lost at Goodison Park to Wolves, they have met twice, with Everton winning on both occasions . However, in two matches played at Molineux Stadium on Monday, the Wolves have won one and drawn one.
EPL: Home vs Away Form 2022-23 season
At Goodison Park, Everton has played 7 EPL games with 2 (29%) victories, 2 (29%) ties, and 3 (42%) losses. Wolves has participated in 7 away EPL contests, recording 0 wins, 2 (29%) draws, and 5 (71%) losses.
Frank Lampard vs Julen Lopetegui
In two encounters, Lampard has never lost to Lopetegui. Both times they met at UCL, Lampard was in charge of Chelsea and Lopetegui was in charge of Sevilla. Chelsea never lost in either encounter, drawing 0-0 at Stamford and winning 0-4 at Sevilla.
Lampard has coached Everton since January 31, 2022. In his 18 games at Goodison Park, he has won 9 (50%), tied 3 (17%), and lost 6 (33%), with one defeat coming at the hands of wolves.
Progress after the World Cup break
For any team, the break is a disguised blessing because it gives them time to reinvent themselves and fix their mistakes. Everton had a rough stretch before the FIFA world cup, and Lampard was under pressure. Additionally, the Wolves were in poor form and fired Bruno Lage as their coach before the World Cup. After being fired from Sevilla, this will be Lopetegui's first game in the EPL. Julian as a coach made his debuts at Rayo Vallecano (lost 0-2), Real Madrid B (won 0-2), Porto (won 2-0), Real Madrid (lost 2-4), and Sevilla (won 0-3) in his previous five matches. 
Lopetegui's won his first game for the Wolves after beating (2-0) Gillingham in Carabao Cup encounter. However, Gillingham plays in English League two, is last in the table, poor stretch of form, and has played 20 games so far and won only 2 of them. The win gives them confidence to approach Everton's match, which is on a higher level not comparable to Gillingham.
Both teams have already competed in two friendlies with the majority of their starting lineup. Results for Everton (0-0 vs Celtic, 5-1 win vs  Western Sydney Wanderers.) and Wolves (3-4 win vs Cadiz,  1-1 vs   Empoli  )
In Summary
On Boxing Day, the Wolves has a 75% chance of winning.
On Monday at Goodison Park, Everton has a 100% chance of winning.
Lampard has never lost to Lopetegui. 
At Goodison Park, Lampard has a winning rate of 50%.
In Lopetegui's debuts history, he has a 60% chance of winning.
At Goodison Park, Everton has won 29% EPL games this season.
The wolves has recorded 0 wins in EPL away this season.
My Prediction
Everton vs Wolves
2-1 or 1-1 FT
Edited by Gedkip
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  Round 17 EPL Predictions

Monday 26th December 2022

Odds @ bet365

Brentford – Tottenham  Odds: (1) 4.00 (x) 3.40  (2) 1.91       

1-1 FT Draw 3.40

Everton – Wolverhampton  Odds: (1) 2.25 (x) 3.30 (2) 3.20             

1-1 FT Draw 3.30

Southampton – Brighton  Odds: (1) 3.50  (x) 3.50  (2) 2.05         

 1-1 FT Draw 3.50

 Leicester – Newcastle  Odds: (1) 3.30 (x) 3.30 (2) 2.20             

1-1 FT Draw 3.30

 Crystal Palace – Fulham  Odds: (1) 2.00 (x) 3.75 (2) 3.40               

2-1FT  Home 2.00

Aston Villa – Liverpool  Odds: (1) 4.50 (x) 3.75 (2) 1.73               

1-2 FT Away 1.73

 Arsenal – West Ham  Odds: (1) 1.50 (x) 4.33  (2) 6.00             

2-0 FT Home 1.50

Tuesday 27th December 2022

 Chelsea – Bournemouth  Odds: (1)1.33 (x) 5.00 (2)9.00                 

2-1 FT Home 1.33

Manchester Utd – Nottingham  Odds: (1) 1.30 (x) 5.50 (2) 8.80                

3-0 FT Home 1.30

Wednesday 28th December 2022

Leeds – Manchester City  Odds: (1) 7.50 (x) 6.50 (2)1.28               

1-2 FT Away 1.28

Edited by Gedkip
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Leicester to beat Newcastle. Wrong odds, happy to take 3.3, or safer option, asian 0.0.

 

Leicester lost twice at home so far, by only at the hands and legs of both the Manchester teams, if Im not mistaken.. 

Also, there will be element of randomness after such a long break, so I cant see Newcastle as such a strong fav away this time.. 

888sport, others... BETFAIR @ 3,4 

LEICESTER TO WIN 

3/10U

26th Dec. 

Edited by michalciesla
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7 hours ago, michalciesla said:

Leicester to beat Newcastle. Wrong odds, happy to take 3.3, or safer option, asian 0.0.

 

Leicester lost twice at home so far, by only at the hands and legs of both the Manchester teams, if Im not mistaken.. 

Also, there will be element of randomness after such a long break, so I cant see Newcastle as such a strong fav away this time.. 

888sport, others... BETFAIR @ 3,4 

LEICESTER TO WIN 

3/10U

26th Dec

 Leicester City have actually lost 3 home games this season to; Southampton, Manchester United and Manchester City

Edited by Gedkip
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Brentford FC vs Tottenham

2022-12-26T13:30+01:00

 

Brentford FC

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Aaron Hickey (9/0 d), Thomas Strakosha (0/0 g), Kristoffer Ajer (6/0 d), Shandon Baptiste (12/0 m)

Suspended: -

 

Tottenham

Doubtful: Hugo Lloris (15/0 first goalkeeper, captain, rest)

Out (injuries/other): Richarlison (10/0 f), Cristian Romero (8/0 d)

Suspended: Rodrigo Bentancur (14/4 m)

 

Interesting facts based only on statistics
Tottenham scored at least one goal in 86% of away games.
86% chance that there will be more than 1 goal in this game.
79% chance that there will be at least 1 goal in the first-half.

 

Crystal Palace vs Fulham

2022-12-26T16:00+01:00

 

Crystal Palace

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): James McArthur (0/0 m), Sam Johnstone (0/0 g), Nathan Ferguson (0/0 d)

Suspended: Marc Guehi (14/0 d)

 

Fulham

Doubtful: Antonee Robinson (13/0 d), Aleksandar Mitrovic (12/9 f, top scorer)

Out (injuries/other): Layvin Kurzawa (1/0 d), Neeskens Kebano (12/0 m), Manor Solomon (1/0 m)

Suspended: -

 

Interesting facts based only on statistics
Crystal Palace scored at least one goal in 86% of home games.
Fulham scored at least one goal in 86% of away games.
64% chance that there will be a draw at half-time.
79% chance that both Crystal Palace and Fulham will score in this game.
43% chance that both Crystal Palace and Fulham will score in first-half.
72% chance that both team will score and goal count will be over 2.5 goals.
86% chance that there will be more than 1 goal in this game.
72% chance that there will be more than 2 goals in this game.
79% chance that there will be at least 1 goal in the first-half.
36% chance that there will be a draw at half-time and Crystal Palace will win a game.

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Aston Villa is hoping to win again after their last result, a 2-1 Premier League success versus Brighton & Hove Albion. Matches involving Aston Villa have tended to be exciting ones recently, with plenty of scoring the rule rather than the exception. Over their past six clashes, the sum of 24 goals has been recorded for both teams combined (at an average of 4 goals per game), with 11 of them belonging to Aston Villa. The Villans currently sit in the middle of the table, but a potential win could see them being just a point behind Liverpool. Boubacar Kamara (Knee Injury), Philippe Coutinho (Hamstring Injury), and Diego Carlos (Achilles tendon rupture) aren't available for Aston Villa boss Unai Emery.

Liverpool heads into the encounter following a 3-1 Premier League win with the defeat of Southampton in their previous fixture. However, the Reds are seven points behind the top-four zone, and they need to work on their consistency. A succession of effective performances from the Liverpool defensive unit has resulted in the number of goals they've conceded, amounting to 4 from their previous six clashes in total. During the same period, their forwards scored 11. Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp has to choose a team with limited availability. Naby Keïta (Muscle Injury), Luis Díaz (Knee Injury), Diogo Jota (Calf Injury), and Arthur Melo (Surgery) miss out here.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Liverpool has been struggling on the road, booking only one win when playing away from home. However, they have been successful twice in a row at Villa Park, and we think they might continue that positive run.

Goals Market Prediction

Their head-to-head clashes have been a joy to watch recently, as the last seven encounters at Villa Park went over a 2.5 margin. This one shouldn't be much different, and the crowd should enjoy at least three goals in total. 

Liverpool to Win @ 1.78

Over 2.5 FT @ 1.70

Correct score 1:2 @ 8.20

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Arsenal vs West Ham

Arsenal fans will want a repeat of their previous result, a 2-0 Premier League success versus Wolverhampton Wanderers. That was the Gunners' third straight Premier League win that kept them four points ahead of Manchester City. From their prior six matches before this one, in as many as 5 of them, a bet on "Both Teams to Score" would've been a losing one. That kind of pattern might not follow through here, however. Heading into this contest, Arsenal has not been beaten in the league by West Ham United in their previous six games. Nearly everyone is up for selection, with just the sole fitness concern for the Arsenal coach Mikel Arteta to be concerned with from a near full-strength set of players. Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) misses out.

Since tasting defeat last time out to Leicester City in Premier League action, West Ham United will be hoping to turn things around here. It has been a disappointing campaign for the Hammers since they are just one point ahead of the relegation zone. David Moyes's West Ham United have seen their goal attempts be successful a total of 7 times in the course of their latest six matches. The overall goals they conceded during those matches add up to seven. West Ham needs to improve its performances in the upcoming rounds so that they start to climb to the safe mid-table finish.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Arsenal has been the biggest overachiever in the Premier League so far, and they might continue with excellent performances. Although West Ham can be a tricky opponent, we think the Gunners will pick up all three points.

Goals Market Prediction

Arsenal has been pretty efficient so far this season, while West Ham should search for a surprise in this match. Therefore, the crowd might see an entertaining game that should go over a 2.5 margin.

Arsenal to Win @ 1.55

Over 2.5 FT @ 1.85

Correct score 3:1 @ 12.50

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4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

By way of a Boxing Day "treat" I've done a trixie on 3 outsiders who seem to have a reasonable chance of upsetting the odds; Leicester, Brentford and Fulham.

2 for a reasonable gain (to paraphrase Meatloaf), 3 would be very nice!

1 out of 3 so I have to settle for the satisfaction of beating the odds (they were all around 5/2). Brentford were 2-0 up! :wall

At least I was on the evens for Spurs to score to the tenner allowed.

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Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Chelsea will be hoping for a better result after the 1-0 Premier League losing effort in their last game against Newcastle United. The Blues lost three times in a row in the English top flight and slipped to 8th place. It has not been often in recent times where Chelsea has managed to hold out for a full 90 minutes. In fact, Chelsea has failed to prevent opponents from scoring in 6 of their previous six clashes, shipping ten goals in the process. They need to tighten their defense and return to winning ways as soon as possible to be competitive in the top-four race. Ben Chilwell (Hamstring Injury), N'Golo Kanté (Hamstring Injury), and Armando Broja (Cruciate Ligament Rupture) won't be available for Chelsea coach Graham Potter.

After tasting defeat last time out to Newcastle United in EFL Cup action, Bournemouth and their traveling fans will hope for a better result here. Nevertheless, they managed to get out of the relegation zone thanks to the victory over Everton just before the World Cup. The stats don't lie, and Bournemouth has been scored against in 5 of their last six games, letting opponents get 11 goals overall. In defense, Bournemouth has clearly had some problems. Going into this encounter, Bournemouth has not won away from home in their last four matches in the league. Thanks to a mainly full-strength group, there is just the sole fitness issue for the Bournemouth manager Gary O'Neil to contend with. Lloyd Kelly (Ankle Injury) misses out for this game.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Neither team can be proud of its recent form, but Chelsea should meet expectations and deliver a win. We think the Blues can beat Bournemouth by at least two goals.

Goals Market Prediction

On the other hand, Chelsea has been very leaky in the back, and they might concede again. Therefore, we think both teams will find the back of the opponent's net.

Chelsea AH -1.5 @ 2.05

BTTS Yes @ 2.10

Correct score 3:1 @ 11.50

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Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest

Manchester United, who won their previous game, will hope for a similar result following the 2-0 EFL Cup success against Burnley. The Red Devils have stabilized their home form lately, winning four of the last five games at Old Trafford. Manchester United hasn't had any problems with scoring, hitting the target in one hundred percent of their previous six games. They've managed to rack up 11 during that period while seeing the number of goals scored against them stand at 6. However, time will tell whether such a trend might persist in this upcoming game. Man Utd wants to continue with confident displays at their ground and keep chasing Tottenham Hotspur, who sits in 4th place. Axel Tuanzebe (Unknown Injury) and Brandon Williams (Unknown Injury) will not be taking part for Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag.

Nottingham Forest will go into this game after a 4-1 EFL Cup win to beat Blackburn Rovers in their previous fixture. The newly-promoted team will struggle to keep its head above the water this season. Nevertheless, Nottm Forest lost just once in the last five rounds. They are just one point away from safety, and the visitors will try to stun the Red Devils on the road. Steve Cooper's Nottingham Forest have found the back of the net ten times throughout their latest six matches. The aggregate of goals they conceded during those matches comes to 8. It will be a tough task for Forest, but they won't give up on remaining undefeated.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Manchester United has been pretty confident at Old Trafford lately, and the hosts have another excellent chance to pick up all three points. We think they should celebrate a win by at least two goals.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games lately, and we expect another entertaining clash. That's why the crowd should see at least three goals in total. 

Manchester United AH -1.5 @ 1.95

Over 2.5 FT @ 1.65

Correct score 3:0 @ 8.20

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Leeds United vs Manchester City

Leeds United will be hoping to bounce back here following the 4-3 Premier League loss in their previous game against Tottenham Hotspur. That defeat broke their two-game winning streak that dragged them out of the relegation zone. Nevertheless, Leeds United is still far from safety, being two points ahead of the red line. It has been seldom in recent games where Leeds United hasn't conceded. The facts show that Leeds United have failed to prevent opponents from scoring in 6 of their previous six clashes, leaking 14 goals in the process. Coming into this fixture, Leeds United have not beaten Manchester City in their last two league matches. Stuart Dallas (Femoral Fracture) and Junior Firpo (Knee Injury) won't be playing for Leeds United manager Jesse Marsch.

Manchester City will go into the clash following a 3-2 EFL Cup win with the downing of Liverpool in their last match. However, the Citizens need to bounce back in the English top flight since they lost to Brentford 2-1 just before the World Cup 2022 started. In their previous half-dozen outings, Manchester City has helped themselves to a total of 12 goals. Manchester City has also not failed to score in every single one of those games. During that period, they've seen six goals go into their own net. Ahead of this meeting, Manchester City remains undefeated over Leeds United in games played away from home for the previous two league matches. Thanks to a completely healthy group to choose from, Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola doesn't have any fitness concerns to report before this match.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Although Leeds United is a tricky host, Manchester City is a firm favorite in this encounter. Therefore, we think the visitors will celebrate a comfortable win and return home with all three points.

Goals Market Prediction

These two teams have been involved in many high-scoring matches this season, and this one shouldn't be much different. We might see four or more goals on Wednesday evening.

Manchester City AH -1.5 @ 1.85

Over 3.5 FT @ 2.10

Correct score 1:3 @ 10.50

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I'm paper chasing my new excel model for the Leeds - City game...everything points to massive value Leeds here so (paper bet) Leeds +1 @3.10 (1 unit) and Leeds @9.50 (0.25 unit).

Edit: model is based on pythagorean theorem with additional stats and subjective analysis (injuries, weather, circumstances etc.).

Edited by Charon84
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