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Tennis Tips - November 21 - November 27

CzechPunter
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  • 2 weeks later...
Foo_Fighter

Foo_Fighter

Posted
Posted (edited)

what's your thoughts on this year's DC in Malaga?

Quarterfinals:

Italy vs USA

Germany vs Canada

Australia vs Netherlands 

Croatia vs Spain

 

My picks in bold. I leave the tie between Australia and Netherlands as a pure toss-up.

I think Germany without Zverev has less than 15% chance to advance to the semifinals. Canada with FAA on its squad is an awfully strong team, especially on indoor hard, which is the surface this tournament is played on. It's a shame Sascha is unavailable, I'm sure many fans would anticipate a blockbuster match between him and FAA.

Spain has been hit hard by the withdrawal of Alcaraz due to his latest injury. Can Carreno, RBA, Fokina(?), Ramos(?) defeat the likes of Coric, Cilic and Mektic/Pavic? I highly doubt it. RBA's decline is massive. Carreno Busta is a reliable player, but I don't think he fancies these fast indoor hard courts... Fokina might actually be a better choice for the hosts. 

Italy won't have Berrettini and Sinner as they're both injured. Their team consists of Sonego, Musetti and Fognini/Bolelli. Now, unlike Italy, Team USA has plenty of extremely formidable players. Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz & Jack Sock will probably be on their final squad. Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz have had career-best seasons. Sock is one of the best doubles players in the world. It's just hard to imagine the current Italian team defeating this team of America.

Edited by Foo_Fighter
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Swiss Maestro

Swiss Maestro

Posted
Posted

Good choices. This is how I see the matches.

Spain vs Croatia. I think the only way for Spain to win this is winning the 2 single points, which is unlikely to happen. Mektic/Pavic are so much better than Granollers/Pedro..., so if Cilic or Coric get a point then Mektic/Pavic should finish the job with ease. 

Italy vs USA. Tiafoe and Fritz are the favorite against Sonego and Musetti. They even are the favorites for the doubles point... cause I think Sock/Paul are better than Fognini/Bolelli.

Germany vs Canada. Shapo and Auger are the favorites against Struff and Otte. Germany has a really good doubles pair (Krawietz/Puetz), so things can get ugly for Canada if the germans get a point in the singles. If that happens, I expect Shapo and Felix to play the doubles cause they have demonstrated a really good chemistry. As I said, the germans will need to get a point in the singles but that won't be easy. If they can do that, then I think it will be a 50/50. 

Australia vs Netherlands. 50/50.

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Foo_Fighter

Foo_Fighter

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Swiss Maestro said:

Good choices. This is how I see the matches.

Spain vs Croatia. I think the only way for Spain to win this is winning the 2 single points, which is unlikely to happen. Mektic/Pavic are so much better than Granollers/Pedro..., so if Cilic or Coric get a point then Mektic/Pavic should finish the job with ease. 

Italy vs USA. Tiafoe and Fritz are the favorite against Sonego and Musetti. They even are the favorites for the doubles point... cause I think Sock/Paul are better than Fognini/Bolelli.

Germany vs Canada. Shapo and Auger are the favorites against Struff and Otte. Germany has a really good doubles pair (Krawietz/Puetz), so things can get ugly for Canada if the germans get a point in the singles. If that happens, I expect Shapo and Felix to play the doubles cause they have demonstrated a really good chemistry. As I said, the germans will need to get a point in the singles but that won't be easy. If they can do that, then I think it will be a 50/50. 

Australia vs Netherlands. 50/50.

So we basically agree on all four QFs. 

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amity

amity

Posted
Posted

Paddy Power have the US at 9/2 outright, with the cash out option open currently. 

They might close off the cash out option though, not sure, but if they don't and the US beat Italy, then their odds will shorten and we could already be in profit. Going to throw something on this (not the house mind you!) ?

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Swiss Maestro

Swiss Maestro

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Jordan Thompson vs Tallon Griekspoor 

Alex de Minaur vs Botic van de Zandschulp 

I'm not gonna bet today. ??

The winner of the Croatia - Spain will face the winner of these 2. The no presence of Kokkinakis (Australia) and Alcaraz (Spain) clearly benefits Croatia. IMO, their chances for reaching the Final now are big.

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Foo_Fighter

Foo_Fighter

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Swiss Maestro said:

The winner of the Croatia - Spain will face the winner of these 2. The no presence of Kokkinakis (Australia) and Alcaraz (Spain) clearly benefits Croatia. IMO, their chances for reaching the Final now are big.

I wanna see a Croatia vs USA final.

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Foo_Fighter

Foo_Fighter

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Swiss Maestro said:

Cilic 100%. Capable of the best and also the worst. I was very confident Croatia was going to win this, but I thought they were going to need Mektic/Pavic to close it. 

yeah.. the doubles kind of worked as insurance premiums; I purchased Croatia exactly because of Mektic/Pavic, as I thought it would be extremely hard for Spain to win both singles. 

 

On 11/21/2022 at 10:41 PM, Swiss Maestro said:

Spain vs Croatia. I think the only way for Spain to win this is winning the 2 single points, which is unlikely to happen. Mektic/Pavic are so much better than Granollers/Pedro..., so if Cilic or Coric get a point then Mektic/Pavic should finish the job with ease. 

We had the exact same mindset.

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Swiss Maestro

Swiss Maestro

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Davidovich Fokina is a young, talented and fearless tennis player. And he happens to be one of the very few Spanish players who actually prefer to play on fast surfaces... I would have gone with him as I said on my initial post about the DC quarterfinals.

You have a really good eye for tennis players! Fokina is one of the most talented players we have had in the last decade. If tennis was all technique, Fokina would be a Top 10 player. The problem with him is his mentality and his physical conditions.

He relapsed from his knee injury, that's why he's not here.

@CzechPunter When I and @Foo_Fighter made our initial posts, USA was at 1.61 (bet365). Now, odds have dropped to 1.28 (bet365).

Edited by Swiss Maestro
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neilovan

neilovan

Posted
Posted

Watching the Cilic v Carreno match yesterday the crowd was just pathetic. Every serve by Cilic cheered raucously. Whistling at the 2nd serve ball toss etc.

Really has no place in tennis. People should just be kicked out!  

Hard to make any predictions early in Davis cup as you don't know who is playing the actual matches.

As for woman's tennis at this time of the year. Best well left alone.

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four-leaf

four-leaf

Posted
Posted

I'm gonna throw myself into the challengers today a bit with going for Facundo.

Facundo Bagnis to beat (-1.5 sets) Nicolas Kicker at 2.38 with Unibet

I've seen Bagnis play lately, he's been impressive on the clay in South America and should be the favourite here even on hardcourt and I think this price feels very likely to come in since Bagnis already has won his 2 opening matches in Temuco by 2-0 and leads the head to head here by 3-1 and has won the last 2 matches 2-0 in this matchup without much fuss albeit on clay and this is hardcourt.

First of all Facundo is a better player than Nicolas now and has been for most of their careers and when seeing Facundo play in the semi last week on clay in Brazil he served really good all match and especially the last 2 sets and the brazilian Felipe Meligeni choked pretty heavily after he had taken first set. But this time Facundo wont lose first set because this isn't a semifinal therefore less nerves for Facundo and I feel no worries firstly because Nico had troubles beating Nico Alvarez and Lucas Reis Da Silva the first two rounds and Facundo has been cruising first two rounds and third if you serve well on hard it matters even more than on clay and Facundos serve is so much better than the one of Nicolas (he may be named Kicker but I've not seen much kick in his serve so far). So I expect this to go Facundos way more or less without any bigger fuss again. This is quarterfinal of Temuco in Chile on hard.

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Foo_Fighter

Foo_Fighter

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

In the end, it's Canada against the Aussies...won't be easy for the Canadians physically.

Depends on the pairs I guess. If Shapovalov plays De Minaur then it's good news for Australia. De Minaur is 4-0 vs Shapovalov. Doesn't necessarily mean it'll be 5-0 though. The Canadian will grab a win against de Minaur at some point... FAA beat De Minaur quite comfortably (6-3, 6-2) in 2022 Cincinnati (outdoor hard). He also beat him in straight sets (7-5, 6-3) 5 years ago (2017), in Drummondville, Canada (indoor hard). 

My gut says Canada wins 2-0 and becomes Davis Cup Champion ? for the first time in history.

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