Tennis Tips - November 14 - November 20

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.67 with William Hill

Nadal is just running on fumes at this point, he'll need to get a long off-season break and return for the Australian Open. It's no wonder given his personal life, and I'm not even sure why he's playing here, honestly.

[888888]

Is it just me or was Nadal absolutely awful against Fritz ??? Totally no fitness and incredibly bad at hitting the ball.

Technically I thought he was playing like a player ranked 50 or 60 and in terms of fitness like an out of form player.

 

I am trying to understand if I am right in my observations or if I misjudged the whole match.

[888888]

3 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.67 with William Hill

Nadal is just running on fumes at this point, he'll need to get a long off-season break and return for the Australian Open. It's no wonder given his personal life, and I'm not even sure why he's playing here, honestly.

funny i wrote nearly the same thing at the same time

[neilovan]

9 hours ago, 888888 said:

Is it just me or was Nadal absolutely awful against Fritz ??? Totally no fitness and incredibly bad at hitting the ball.

Technically I thought he was playing like a player ranked 50 or 60 and in terms of fitness like an out of form player.

 

I am trying to understand if I am right in my observations or if I misjudged the whole match.

I don't think you saw the game for what it was. This court is quick, balls are quick. and it favors the big server. Perfect example was Auger-Aliasimme and Ruud each serving 6 games in 1st set of their match and the opponent winning just 4 points off each. Kind of ridiculous.

The surface definitely suites Fritz. You could see it in the way he was able to blast Nadal off the court with the 1st serve. No comparison between how Fritz played here, versus his display in Paris (where the court was super slow). He is serving bullets, and hitting the ball very hard off the ground, timing it exceptionally, and it is going in.

It will take something special to beat him this week. I think he wins the whole thing. Perfect conditions for him.

 

I think 2.6 for him to win the group is a good price.

Edited November 14, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

9 hours ago, 888888 said:

funny i wrote nearly the same thing at the same time

He will probably get 500000 euro's for just showing up for the week (not that he needs the money), but he may have sponsorship deals that also work on tournament appearances..

[Foo_Fighter]

19 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.67 with William Hill

Nadal is just running on fumes at this point, he'll need to get a long off-season break and return for the Australian Open. It's no wonder given his personal life, and I'm not even sure why he's playing here, honestly.

 

19 hours ago, 888888 said:

Is it just me or was Nadal absolutely awful against Fritz ??? Totally no fitness and incredibly bad at hitting the ball.

Technically I thought he was playing like a player ranked 50 or 60 and in terms of fitness like an out of form player.

 

I am trying to understand if I am right in my observations or if I misjudged the whole match.

With all due respect, guys, I think you're underestimating Nadal. Yes he lost to Taylor Fritz in straight sets, but the American is now an elite player. Remember how close he came to defeating Nadal at Wimbledon? Nadal is far from his best, sure, but Taylor Fritz was truly relentless throughout the match.

As @neilovan mentioned a couple of posts above, Taylor Fritz was hitting the ball so hard, timing it exceptionally, making no unforced errors whatsoever. I mean, the 9 unforced errors he made playing this aggressive, and against Nadal, is literally nothing. It was one of those rare matches where a player was actually able to hit the ball right in the sweet spot consistently. Fritz was also serving great, creating every angle he wanted; you could see he was brimming with confidence. 

Make no mistake, the Spaniard is not done yet. Today's another day, and he's got that magical ability to isolate all the negatives from his last match in a corner, and move on with a clear and fresh mindset. I'm not exactly saying he can do wonders, but I believe he has proved time and time again that he's not a player you can easily write off, no matter how vulnerable he might(?) look (I'm sort of choosing to give more kudos to Taylor Fritz than to criticize Nadal).

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Taylor Fritz to win a set against Casper Ruud at 1.28 with bet365

Nadal to win a set against FAA at 1.5 with bet365

I guess it'll be a little ridiculous for Fritz not to win at least a set against Ruud, right after his phenomenal performance vs Nadal.

Good luck. ?

[888888]

When watching a match it's sometimes a bit difficult to understand if a player is losing because he is playing rather bad or because the opponent is playing excessively well.

For Nadal - Fritz not taking account ball hitting and pure racket skills I thought pyhiscally and speed wise Nadal was very below par, he is not that young anymore compared to the  22-25 y/o top athletes he is facing; but for a reason or an other of course my opinion could be biased or wrong.

[amity]

On 11/14/2022 at 9:40 AM, CzechPunter said:

Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.67 with William Hill

Nadal is just running on fumes at this point, he'll need to get a long off-season break and return for the Australian Open. It's no wonder given his personal life, and I'm not even sure why he's playing here, honestly.

Thanks Czech! I needed that after a few bad losses lately! ?

[Foo_Fighter]

well I guess you guys were right. Nadal had 4 bps but couldn't convert. Then FAA broke him on a game where Nadal was serving with new balls and was actually 40-0 up. He was a shadow of himself right after this. I thought Nadal being the #1 and FAA being a newcomer to this event, could result in at least Nadal winning one set, but that wasn't the case here. A well deserved win for the Canadian.

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

well I guess you guys were right. Nadal had 4 bps but couldn't convert. Then FAA broke him on a game where Nadal was serving with new balls and was actually 40-0 up. He was a shadow of himself right after this. I thought Nadal being the #1 and FAA being a newcomer to this event, could result in at least Nadal winning one set, but that wasn't the case here. A well deserved win for the Canadian.

I think Nadal had more break points. Twice he was at 15-40 and he had one late in the 2nd set that he also did not take.

Nadal just looked old and tired. A bit like a Wayne Rooney of tennis where the body has just been pounded for a few years too many. Makes his two major wins this year look phenomenal, but he is not 100%. I watched the entire Ruud v Auger Aliassime match, and I still don't know how Ruud won that. His game is just so limited. Like a smaller Danish Thomas Berdych. In my mind (though I have been wrong?), there is no way Ruud can beat Fritz. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by neilovan

[Foo_Fighter]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I think Nadal had more break points. Twice he was at 15-40 and he had one late in the 2nd set that he also did not take.

Nadal just looked old and tired. A bit like a Wayne Rooney of tennis where the body has just been pounded for a few years too many. Makes his two major wins this year look phenomenal, but he is not 100%. I watched the entire Ruud v Auger Aliassime match, and I still don't know how Ruud won that. His game is just so limited. Like a smaller Danish Thomas Berdych. In my mind (though I have been wrong?), there is no way Ruud can beat Fritz. 

lol I'd say like a slightly better David Ferrer overall.

I agree that TF is the clear favorite.

[amity]

One thing to keep in mind re Ruud is that his record against lefties is not so great. He's lost to left handed players a few times this year. 

Hence even though Nadal is out of contention, Ruud might not find it so easy against him, and although Ruud probably will prevail, Nadal could keep it close. 

It depends as well on whether Ruud needs to win to progress, anyway it's something to keep in mind for the Ruud Nadal clash.

[CzechPunter]

Don't see anything for today, honestly. Tomorrow's odds also don't look all that appealing, especially for the Ruud/Nadal encounter.

[four-leaf]

Can't get much more tighter than this..

[CzechPunter]

Great effort from Stefanos there! Might be worth a bet against Rublev.

[amity]

On 11/15/2022 at 6:09 PM, amity said:

One thing to keep in mind re Ruud is that his record against lefties is not so great. He's lost to left handed players a few times this year. 

Hence even though Nadal is out of contention, Ruud might not find it so easy against him, and although Ruud probably will prevail, Nadal could keep it close. 

It depends as well on whether Ruud needs to win to progress, anyway it's something to keep in mind for the Ruud Nadal clash.

Another one I advised here but didn't put money on myself ? (would have been Nadal+games, not sure I would have backed him outright)

[Foo_Fighter]

3 hours ago, amity said:

Another one I advised here but didn't put money on myself ? (would have been Nadal+games, not sure I would have backed him outright)

I did. I felt that Ruud going 3/3 seemed like overkill, so yes, in combination with what you highlighted about Ruud, his record against the lefties etc, I chose to go with the Spaniard at great odds. 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Foo_Fighter

[Foo_Fighter]

Been saying for quite some time now that Taylor Fritz has become such an elite tennis player, so advancing to the semifinals came as no surprise to me. He won the match fair and square. Can he beat Novak and reach the final? Well, he's gonna face the best out there, a player who loves playing in front of the Italian crowd and who has won this event multiple times in his career. Also, tennis is about match-ups, and clearly, this isn't a favorable one for Taylor Fritz. Djokovic leads 5-0 and has only dropped 2 sets so far. Taylor Fritz has evolved tremendously ever since their last encounter (QF - Paris Masters 2021) though. Djokovic won 6-4, 6-3 in their lone indoor hardcourt match so far (3 more wins on clay & 1 win on outdoor hard for Novak). 

As much as I want Taylor Fritz to proceed, I still predict a Djokovic win here. It all comes down to mental fortitude, and that's where the Serb is miles ahead of his rival; I'd dare to say that their backhand ability is now on par. Is it a blasphemy, folks? Don't attack me please. ? Seriously, Fritz does some serious damage with his backhand these days and only a few are even noticing. I mean, how else can I justify the odds on the FAA vs Fritz match? It's as if they're afraid to see the reality. Ok, enough with my praise to Fritz. It's just exciting and refreshing to watch an outsider slowly becoming part of the elite, you know what I mean?

[CzechPunter]

Well, he has certainly improved tremendously, and he wasn't lacking in the mental fortitude department against FAA. The conditions suit him here as well, and, if he keeps his first serve percentage high throughout the match, he certainly has a chance. Is meeting Djokovic different than meeting this version of Nadal or FAA? Yeah, unfortunately, I'd say it is. Let's see what the bookies throw us in terms of odds/handicaps.

[888888]

Damn at the end of the 2nd set Djoko seemed so out of it , nearly as if he was gonna pass out during the tie break, and he then went on to win the 3rd ,

Wonder how his fitness will be tomorrow??

[Foo_Fighter]

Well they played two sets and were tied twice. Djokovic was the one who broke the tie successfully both times though (7-6, 7-6). 

Taylor Fritz was serving to win the second set on 5-4 but came up short. He had to be mentally tougher there. It is what it is. Novak will now beat Rublev or Ruud and lift his 6th Masters Cup trophy ?.

[CzechPunter]

No Rune debacle repeat?