Racing Chat - Thursday 27th October

[Villa Chris]

Stratford 3.15

Moonlighter 9.7 7/2 2nd 

Fanzio 9.5 9/1 4th 

Pencreek 9.1 9/2 3rd 

Storm Control 9 13/2 5th 

Moonlighter has some very classy form a couple of year ago but lost his way since. He’s moved to Kim Bailey and has his first run for that trainer, which I see as a positive. If capturing a bit of form he’s very well handicapped.  Fanzio is very inconsistent , but is a double course winner and again very well handicapped. Pencreek loves it at Stratford but this is a tough race and has probably already peaked. Storm Control is a horse I really like , but is used to much further these days and usually needs a run. Can’t help but feel it’s a race to get him fit and maybe lose a couple of Ibs for future races. 
 

5 points win Moonlighter 7/2 

Edited October 27, 2022 by Villa Chris

[kensland]

Stradford. 

Single. 

3.50. Blue Bear...      14/1...... PU

Double. 

3.05. Worc. Thruthelookinglass.      6/1.... unpl 

3.15. Strad. Moonlighter.                         7/2.... 2nd 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited October 27, 2022 by kensland

[kensland]

Ralph Beckett runners. 

Double. 

4.35. Ling. Star of Orion. ..  15/2.... unpl 

7.00.Chlm. Puffin.                   10/3..... unpl 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited October 27, 2022 by kensland

[black rabbit]

Give us a sub    4 35 Ling/          1/20 of a pt win     16/1 

 

 

 

 

P/L  + 160.30  PTS

[Sporting Sam]

Stratford 1.30

A very ordinary seller.

FLOATING ROCK to win

Believe me I've gone over the profile of this races over and over.

The energy put into researching here could have better spent working out landing a decent forecast in a handicap but it has fascinated me somewhat !

Mr coldstone ex Willie Mullins drops in class here on second run for new yard but has achieved diddly squat in several runs for that trainer.

Formerly a flat horse with Johnny Murtagh who scored on debut for Mullins in a maiden hurdle.

He might be a plot horse given he was well down the field on debut under Brian Hughes, but what a travesty it would be if that baseline ploy comes off here. Yep, connections  really have set their ambitions low in trying to take this race.

Floating Rock on the other hand has a full house under rules, a handful of chase and hurdle wins and won his only bumper. Indeed he won this very race two years ago. The two top weights are thirty pounds plus clear in the ratings from the two other runners. Kevin Brogan was actually the winning jockey last year and rides one of the two lesser lights.

FLOATING ROCK to win and if you can get anywhere near evens claim a victory on that!!!

More than likely he will stay odds on.

[Zilzalian]

Big market move on Clearpoint at Longchamp going on today 9/4 skybet but you can still get 4/1 bet365 down from 10/1 last night. 

[Sporting Sam]

1 hour ago, sporting sam said:

Stratford 1.30

A very ordinary seller.

FLOATING ROCK to win

Believe me I've gone over the profile of this races over and over.

The energy put into researching here could have better spent working out landing a decent forecast in a handicap but it has fascinated me somewhat !

Mr coldstone ex Willie Mullins drops in class here on second run for new yard but has achieved diddly squat in several runs for that trainer.

Formerly a flat horse with Johnny Murtagh who scored on debut for Mullins in a maiden hurdle.

He might be a plot horse given he was well down the field on debut under Brian Hughes, but what a travesty it would be if that baseline ploy comes off here. Yep, connections  really have set their ambitions low in trying to take this race.

Floating Rock on the other hand has a full house under rules, a handful of chase and hurdle wins and won his only bumper. Indeed he won this very race two years ago. The two top weights are thirty pounds plus clear in the ratings from the two other runners. Kevin Brogan was actually the winning jockey last year and rides one of the two lesser lights.

FLOATING ROCK to win and if you can get anywhere near evens claim a victory on that!!!

More than likely he will stay odds on.

Here's is my final say on this race, at the odds my choice, Floating Rock is too prohibitively priced to back. Mr Coldstone at 9/4 is plain madness. When floating Rock won this race two years ago, he was 15 lengths clear of a 126 rated horse. He is very lightly raced over hurdles having last run over them in April, he won in may last year and appears to be the only player that gets the trip. This is a seller, there are just four runners and it really does not matter who wins. We are though looking at a decent winning margin to whoever puts their best foot forward hence, get all four runners on your side and just go with the winning margin being over six lengths.

Stratford  1.30 winning distance

Over six lengths @ 6/4 

 

Edited October 27, 2022 by sporting sam
Spelling error

[LEE-GRAYS]

4.05 clonmel gotthenod 20/1 e/w bet365 

[jonjo]

Just Stable Switchers today as I'm working with little time, win and place possibilities. 

 

2.20 Dancing Jeremy 7/1

3.15 Moonlighter 4/1

3.40 Hardy Fella 11/2

4.05 Trevena 10/1

7.00 Give a Little Back 8/1

Good luck today everyone. 

In the 7.00 Letmelivemylife is being well backed for a Stable Switchers, now around the 6 mark. 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2022 by jonjo

[azzybear]

limetree boy 1.55 porter in the park 2.05 dancing Jeremy 2.20 master blaze 2.30 steel wave 2.40 

[azzybear]

make the switch 2.20 ew

[fd1972uk]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Big market move on Clearpoint at Longchamp going on today 9/4 skybet but you can still get 4/1 bet365 down from 10/1 last night. 

Can see why it was 10/1, ouch.

[fd1972uk]

1 hour ago, sporting sam said:

Here's is my final say on this race, at the odds my choice, Floating Rock is too prohibitively priced to back. Mr Coldstone at 9/4 is plain madness. When floating Rock won this race two years ago, he was 15 lengths clear of a 126 rated horse. He is very lightly raced over hurdles having last run over them in April, he won in may last year and appears to be the only player that gets the trip. This is a seller, there are just four runners and it really does not matter who wins. We are though looking at a decent winning margin to whoever puts their best foot forward hence, get all four runners on your side and just go with the winning margin being over six lengths.

Stratford  1.30 winning distance

Over six lengths @ 6/4 

 

Won by nearly a circuit,  lol

[Sporting Sam]

Yes I really enjoyed that.

Floating Rock did too!!

[Zilzalian]

39 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Can see why it was 10/1, ouch.

Early season, Fahey said it was his best 2yo by far,  its last run vet said it was found to be moving poorly. he obviously took it there thinking it had a good chance the fav Maylandsea is nothing special by any means and the winner Proverb in fairness is a fair soft ground horse and in my book should have been about fav with  Clearpoint.

[Sporting Sam]

2 hours ago, jonjo said:

Just Stable Switchers today as I'm working with little time, win and place possibilities. 

 

2.20 Dancing Jeremy 7/1

3.15 Moonlighter 4/1

3.40 Hardy Fella 11/2

4.05 Trevena 10/1

7.00 Give a Little Back 8/1

Good luck today everyone. 

 

Hi Jonjo 

Robinstown is a switcher which will have slipped under the radar as he was a non runner on intended debut.

Runs in clomels 4.05

I noticed he's beaten hallowed star in a maiden hurdle. Hallowed star gone on to be decent and was beaten in the summer by Dad's lad (recent Cheltenham winner) Robinstown will be ridden today by Jordan Gainford. 

Change of Trainer Gordon Elliott to Cian Michael Collins

 

 

 

[Villa Chris]

20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Stratford 3.15

Moonlighter 9.7 7/2 2nd 

Fanzio 9.5 9/1 4th 

Pencreek 9.1 9/2 3rd 

Storm Control 9 13/2 5th 

Moonlighter has some very classy form a couple of year ago but lost his way since. He’s moved to Kim Bailey and has his first run for that trainer, which I see as a positive. If capturing a bit of form he’s very well handicapped.  Fanzio is very inconsistent , but is a double course winner and again very well handicapped. Pencreek loves it at Stratford but this is a tough race and has probably already peaked. Storm Control is a horse I really like , but is used to much further these days and usually needs a run. Can’t help but feel it’s a race to get him fit and maybe lose a couple of Ibs for future races. 
 

5 points win Moonlighter 7/2 

A well beaten 2nd . The winner had some decent novice form , but was very hard to get a full picture of his ability. Bolted up so one to watch for future races. Very strung out race. 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +15.68 points 

Edited October 27, 2022 by Villa Chris

[jonjo]

On 10/27/2022 at 3:50 PM, sporting sam said:

Hi Jonjo 

Robinstown is a switcher which will have slipped under the radar as he was a non runner on intended debut.

Runs in clomels 4.05

I noticed he's beaten hallowed star in a maiden hurdle. Hallowed star gone on to be decent and was beaten in the summer by Dad's lad (recent Cheltenham winner) Robinstown will be ridden today by Jordan Gainford. 

Change of Trainer Gordon Elliott to Cian Michael Collins

 

Hi Sam, brilliant observation ☺️ a cracking winner and a lovely Bfsp, paid over 25!! Sorry for the late reply but I've been working all weekend so not been able to post. None of my three systems were able to pick this one out, if I included it then the expected strike rate would drop to below 13% giving expected losing runs up to 65 which is a bit much. Sadly the system builder over on horseracebase.com, which is the best around I m ay add but it doesn't have a facility to include those that were non runners on their intended debut. Hope you had a bob or two on and made plenty. ☺️

 

 

[Sporting Sam]

Hi Jonjo,

Thank you for your kind reply. I keep a weather eye out for trainers who pull their horses by self certifying to find the right race. It also drops them off the radar.  I am the anti typical mug punter so I'm unlikely to make a penny from racing, but I do have a few tricks up my sleeve which others will, I hope prosper from!