NFL - Week 7

[PercyP]

NFL Week 7 Predictions

With an overall loss of 221.88 points this Nfl season, backing the opposite of my tips seems a good strategy, but be warned I shall be trying even harder this week to rectify this situation.

This season the underdog has been winning against the spread. This week will see the favourites come good in higher scoring games.

(1) Baltimore Ravens to win ATS -6.5 points @ 10/11

Lamar the Ravens QB has done well against the Browns. He’s got 15 career touchdowns against Cleveland — 11 passing, four rushing — and the Ravens have won five of the eight games he’s started against them. Baltimore is also 5-0 against the spread in the last 5 meetings

 (2) Patriots to win ATS – 8.0 points @ 10/11

The Patriots are playing at home on Monday night against one of the league’s absolute worst teams.

 (3) Bucs to win ATS – 11.0 points @ 10/11

The Bucs have won and covered in the last four meetings against Carolina since 2020, with no win by fewer than 14 points and with a combined score 150-63. Panthers will want the season to end right now.

(4) 49ers to win Moneyline @ 5/4

49ers are a different team at home. The 49ers are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games at home at Levi’s Stadium. Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-6 SU and 16-4 ATS as an underdog in his career. 

 (5) Bengal’s to win ATS -6.5 points @ 10/11

The Benegal’s are beginning to show the form which took them to last year’s Super Bowl. Joe Burrow now appears fully fit after his summer operation.

Bet:

10 x 1 point trebles

5 x 3 point 4 timers

5 point accumulator

30 points staked

All prices Bet365

 Second set of selections

(6) Dolphins to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11

Miami is 7-2 against the spread in its last 9 Home games at Hard Rock Stadium, whilst, the Steeler’s are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in this fixture. Home advantage will prevail.

 (7) Raiders to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11

The Texans offence is limited.

 (8) Saints to win Moneyline @ 5/4

Arizona is 7-16 against the spread as a Favourite the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals have lost 8 in a row at home, whilst the Saints are 15-7 against the spread in their last 22 games played on Grass.

 (9)LA Chargers to win ATS -6.0 points @ 10/11

 Seattle is 4-14 against the spread in its last 18 games after a straight up win.

 (10) Cowboys to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11

 The Cowboys are 10-1 against the spread against teams with a losing record.

 Bet:

10 x 0.5 point trebles

5 x 1.5 point 4 timers

2.5 point accumulator

15 points staked

[harry_rag]

Taking Kamara to break his season duck this week, 5/4 or better if I can get it.

I'd make him closer to evens, maybe the lack of a score so far is making him friendless in the market.

[PercyP]

6 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Taking Kamara to break his season duck this week, 5/4 or better if I can get it.

I'd make him closer to evens, maybe the lack of a score so far is making him friendless in the market.

A man injured in an alleged felony battery by New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara and three other men, including Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Christopher Lammons, filed a civil lawsuit in Louisiana against Kamara on Friday. Not sure of impact on him.

 

[harry_rag]

Looks like he's been facing the prospect of criminal proceedings for this for a while. An ugly sounding incident whatever the rights or wrongs but I think I'll go ahead with a punt on him (not matched as yet).

[harry_rag]

Taken the 5/4 as only one firm held that price & not necessarily going to get better on BF.

[MinellaWorksop]

Today I am going for:

Washington Commanders 2.85 Bet365

The Commanders play at home against the Green Bay Packers who have now lost two in a row and look low on confidence. This could be an ideal game for them to get back to winning ways as The Commanders are a steady average team. The Commanders will be looking to take advantage of The Packers recent defeats and I feel The Packers are too short in themarket so I am siding with The Commanders.

[harry_rag]

Only four potential qualifiers for me this week and they all look worth a bet at the prices.

One for each team in Seattle at LAC, Ekeler at 5/6 and Walker at 5/4, both with Fred but seeing if I can get a bit better on the exchange.

The other 2 are generally pitched as odds on shots and look worth backing in the one place that has them at evens or better.

Jacobs (Las Vegas) at 21/20 with Lads and Barkley (Giants) at evens with Fred.

Good luck with your selections guys.

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

One for each team in Seattle at LAC, Ekeler at 5/6 and Walker at 5/4, both with Fred but seeing if I can get a bit better on the exchange.

Taken those prices as doesn’t look like I’ll be getting better.

[MinellaWorksop]

14 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Only four potential qualifiers for me this week and they all look worth a bet at the prices.

One for each team in Seattle at LAC, Ekeler at 5/6 and Walker at 5/4, both with Fred but seeing if I can get a bit better on the exchange.

The other 2 are generally pitched as odds on shots and look worth backing in the one place that has them at evens or better.

Jacobs (Las Vegas) at 21/20 with Lads and Barkley (Giants) at evens with Fred.

Good luck with your selections guys.

Three out of Four come in. Superb tipping mate.

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Three out of Four come in. Superb tipping mate.

Cheers, 3 out of 5 for the week so far and just over a point up to level stakes.

Well done with Washington.

[harry_rag]

It's all about the New England Running Backs for me tonight.

Looks like Harris may return from injury and Stevenson has shone in his absence.

Stevenson is seen as the most likely TD scorer for either team. At a best price of evens he's bigger than my "true" odds but shorter than my "back" odds (i.e. not a big enough edge). So it's a maybe bet if I can get matched at a big enough price on BF. Similar with Harris, who's obviously a riskier proposition if returning from injury. Never a play at 6/4 or less with the bookies but maybe worth chancing at bigger than 2/1 on the exchange. I'll update if I'm matched before bed time!

 

[harry_rag]

Matched on Harris at 3.15 and Stevenson at 2.24

[MinellaWorksop]

Stevenson delivers the goods.

12 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Matched on Harris at 3.15 and Stevenson at 2.24

Stevenson delivers the goods. Top work again mate.

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Stevenson delivers the goods.

Stevenson delivers the goods. Top work again mate.

Cheers. Just had a quick look back and I am down for the season overall.

0-3 on "specials" for -30 points and 0-2 where I've tried a TD scorer perm for -58 points so 0-5 and -88 points from those bets.

10-10 on the TD scorer singles for a profit of 15.87 points to 10 point stakes with an ROI of 7.94%

Both perms were one short of a return (1 out of 3 on a trixie and 2 out of 4 where I needed a treble). 3-4 overall for -2.67 points had I just done 10 point singles.

I think it's clear I should just stick to the TD scorer singles.

[PercyP]

NFL Week 7 Results

Backing the opposite of my tips seems a good strategy, but be warned I shall be trying even harder this week to rectify this situation.  Not Rectified W3 L7

Week 7 Record W3 L7 - 45 points staked, no return for a weekly loss of 45 points.

The YTD record is now: Total selections 70 – W26 D3 L41 staked 315.00 returned 48.12 for an overall loss of 266.88 points.

(1) Baltimore Ravens to win ATS -6.5 points @ 10/11- Lost = Baltimore only win by three (23-20)

Baltimore is also 5-0 against the spread in the last 5 meeting. The Ravens offence did not fire. Lamar Jackson no touchdowns and only 120 yards passing.

 (2) Patriots to win ATS – 8.0 points @ 10/11- Lost = Shock of the season Bears win 33-14 in Foxboro

The Patriots are playing at home on Monday night against one of the league’s absolute worst teams. Not sure anyone could have predicted this result. The Patriots defense got steamrolled by a Bears offense that had struggled to move the ball all season. 

 (3) Bucs to win ATS – 11.0 points @ 10/11- Lost = Panthers win 21-3 in Tampa

Panthers will want the season to end right now. How wrong could I be? Tampa and Tom Brady hit rock bottom against aside who looked in disarray.

(4) 49ers to win Moneyline @ 5/4 – Lost = Chiefs win 44-23

49ers are a different team at home. The 49ers are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games at home at Levi’s Stadium. 49ers started this game well with the Chiefs down 10-0 early after a pick, but the Chiefs responded by spreading the ball around to, quite literally, everyone in their lineup.

 (5) Bengal’s to win ATS -6.5 points @ 10/11- Won = Benegals win comfortably 35-17

The Benegal’s are beginning to show the form which took them to last year’s Super Bowl. Both the offense and defence played well. A team to be followed.

(6) Dolphins to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11- Lost = Miami only win by six (16-10)

Miami is 7-2 against the spread in its last 9 Home games at Hard Rock Stadium. Home advantage will prevail. It did but not as much as expected. Dolphins only scored three points in last three quarters of this game.

 (7) Raiders to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11 - Won = Raiders cruise to a 38-20 win

The Texans offence is limited. The Raiders could be another team to follow.

 (8) Saints to win Moneyline @ 5/4 – Lost – Cardinals win 42-34

Arizona is 7-16 against the spread as a Favourite the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals have lost 8 in a row at home. Saints generously give away 2 pick sixes in this game.

 (9)LA Chargers to win ATS -6.0 points @ 10/11 – Lost Seahawks win 37-23

 Seattle is 4-14 against the spread in its last 18 games after a straight up win. Seattle’s defence is coming good.

 (10) Cowboys to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11 – Won = Cowboys win 24-6

 The Cowboys are 10-1 against the spread against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys could be the surprise package this season.