Racing Chat- Wednesday 19th October

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I have noticed that our shrewd members @Tedthewolfand @black rabbit have been quite successful in taking into account what horse(s) did in the previous year's race(s) despite poor recent form.  Do you think that it may be worthwhile to pop the last year's race result details into your sausage machine to see if it may throw up something of value for the day's race under review?

It's a possibility but that's too far back .....its a speculative and skillful niche that they do particularly well with .....and a lot is very clever aiming at a particular race by connections even if the horse looks out of form .....I prefer some sort of recent form ....in essence what the computer does is run the 3 best runs nearest to conditions over and over from diff perspectives ....class...form ..speed ...weights etc and scores each horse on where its ranked then after about 7 diff ratings it works out the most likely probability of where the horse should  finish under todays conditions all things being equal ....its an educated guess machine really like a knowledgeable pro punter  friend helping you bet is like how I like to think of it lol ? 

Now the jump formula is way more inclined to recent form because most of the time if the horse hasn't finished top 6 last time then they don't seem to win so some sort of good recent run is way more important on the jumps ....I've just finished the updated jump formula so if chelt goes ahead this weekend it will be a good chance to give it a run out .....I really like it when my ratings line up with villa Chris then I know because we,are coming at a race from diff perspectives there's,a good chance the ratings are accurate so its a good benchmark to have ....I'm hoping it throws up some good bets this season ? 

Edited October 20, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

Interesting that is Richard because I think form is more important on the flats. Same as speed figures are more relevant on the flats. Of course if a horse is in terrible form and there’s no valid reason for it other than he’s just running badly then I’ll take that into consideration. There’s  no form then there’s bad form. 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Villa Chris

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

It's a possibility but that's too far back .....its a speculative and skillful niche that they do particularly well with .....and a lot is very clever aiming at a particular race by connections even if the horse looks out of form .....I prefer some sort of recent form ....in essence what the computer does is run the 3 best runs nearest to conditions over and over from diff perspectives ....class...form ..speed ...weights etc and scores each horse on where its ranked then after about 7 diff ratings it works out the most likely probability of where the horse should  finish under todays conditions all things being equal ....its an educated guess machine really like a knowledgeable pro punter  friend helping you bet is like how I like to think of it lol ? 

Now the jump formula is way more inclined to recent form because most of the time if the horse hasn't finished top 6 last time then they don't seem to win so some sort of good recent run is way more important on the jumps ....I've just finished the updated jump formula so if chelt goes ahead this weekend it will be a good chance to give it a run out .....I really like it when my ratings line up with villa Chris then I know because we,are coming at a race from diff perspectives there's,a good chance the ratings are accurate so its a good benchmark to have ....I'm hoping it throws up some good bets this season ? 

Many thanks for that.  I always understood that jumps horses retained their form for much longer than horses on the flat.  You have been working very hard.  I believe that you have not long finished refining your All Weather ratings too.  I am sure that we all look forward to seeing both the Jumps and All weather ratings in action over the winter months. Very best of luck with these, you richly deserve it

[Sporting Sam]

Southwell 1250

MISS DOLLY ROCKER 

Win @ boosted price 11/10

impressive behind luckin Brew at Kempton last time over a mile.

sharp drop in trip the worry. But given that Luckin Brew was narrowly defeated at class 1 next time out on turf gives substance to the form and this could be a drop in class as well as distance and may well win going away. ( I hope so!) Has to cope with the drop in trip but we'll see.