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Tennis Tips - October 31 - November 6


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  • 4 weeks later...
4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Maxime Cressy to beat Diego Schwartzman at 1.60 with Unibet

Both have been average lately, but Cressy at least troubled Tsitsipas big time not that long ago. Indoors, in home conditions, he certainly has the match-up edge here.

How would you rate the speed of the courts? Fast, medium or medium-slow?

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As far as indoor courts are concerned, it's certainly on the slower side. Cressy did really well to beat Diego yesterday, the final break was super sweet, even. That's the only match I watched, though, and the ball seemed to be bouncing quite low in that one, so pretty much ideal for Cressy. For that reason, I'll be on Evans to beat Nakashima at 1.91 with William Hill today. The form book also checks out in favor of Evans, really.

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Anna Danilina/B.H Maia to beat Gabriela Dabrowski/Giuliana Olmos at 2 with bet365

Danilina and Maia have recently beaten the likes of Krejcikova/Siniakova and Gauff/Pegula, which shows they're in really good form. H2H stands at 1-0 (6-4, 6-2) in favor of the Brazilian-Kazakh duo (points won: 58-38). Dabrowski & Olmos don't seem to be in similar form, as they've been remarkably poor in their most recent matches.

Good luck.

 

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Doing rather fine so well, fingers crossed it continues!

Tommy Paul (+4.5) to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.73 with Unibet

This looks like a really good line to me given that Nadal hasn't played since the US Open, bar the Federer exhibition. He's also had a lot going on off the court, and the conditions are by no means that great for him, so +4.5? Yes, I'll take that!

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Well, Paul actually beat Nadal!

Gilles Simon (+5.5) to beat FAA at 1.85 with Unibet

Felix has his spot in the ATP Finals guaranteed now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him relax a little bit in this match. He's played an incredible number of matches recently, and he can't push himself too much now if he wants to have a good shot in the actual Finals. Simon, on the other hand, is playing his farewell tournament here, and he's got everyone on his side. The handicap line looks decent to me, and the moneyline odds are probably also worth a shot.

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I'm backing Tiafoe (vs. Felix) at 2.75 with William Hill

These odds are insane. I agree Felix should be the favourite player, but not at these odds. Felix has won 3 consecutive tournaments and he's in a 15 winning streak, so we can say he's the most in-form player..., Despite that, I did not like what I saw from him in his match against Ymer. He was 1 set and 4-1 down..., and he even had to face 2 break points which means he could have been 1 set and 5-1 down. In other words, he was super close to lose 7-6, 6-1 against Ymer. 

Tiafoe is in the best moment of his career. Semifinals in the US Open, Final in Tokyo and he comes from beating Sonego, Drapper and De Minaur, all of them in straight sets.

As I said, Felix should be the favourite player, but not at these odds. These odds are insane.

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Unfortunately, I did not watch much of Tiafoe's and Felix's matches, but I did watch most of Tiafoe - Draper and Tiafoe was really lucky in that one. Most of the close line calls went in his direction and Draper was very unclutch on break points (0/7). Also, they had a few complete mishits, it wasn't a high quality match. Usually, Felix should be even more of a favourite (expect Tiafoe to dislike Felix's serve), but obviously the big elephant in the room is his potential exhaustion from all these matches. Overall, though, I do not think that 2.75 are good odds for Tiafoe (and you would get better odds on exchanges, at least for this match), I'm rather leaning Felix, but there is quite high uncertaincy due to unknown level of fatigue (Felix is very fit and has been relatively unaffected so far, but this can change in any match from now on).

Regarding Felix, did anyone notice any fatigue or even an indicator of injury or illness (e.g. coughing) in his last match? (Yes, I'm a bit surprised by the odds, a bit too high for Felix).

Edited by adastra
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1 hour ago, adastra said:

Regarding Felix, did anyone notice any fatigue or even an indicator of injury or illness (e.g. coughing) in his last match? (Yes, I'm a bit surprised by the odds, a bit too high for Felix).

1.40-1.45 against Tiafoe and you think the odds for Felix are high 😂 ? Obviously you missed the match he played against Ymer. You should take a look at that match. He was a mess during the first set and the first half of the second one. As I said, he saved 2 break points when he was 1 set and 4-1 down, so he could have lost easily in 2.

Btw, what should be the proper odds for Felix? 1.25-1.30...?  😂

Edited by Swiss Maestro
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He might have been a mess in that 1 1/2 sets, but he obviously did well in most of the countless other sets in the last few weeks. In terms of the odds, maybe up to 1.40 would have been "proper odds" for Felix as he is a bad matchup for Tiafoe who tends to get a good boost from strong crowd support (which is obviously bigger in the USA). At the time when we wrote our initial posts, the odds for Felix were up to 1.50 (maybe beven slightly higher).

Edited by adastra
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Holger Rune vs FAA: Total tie breaks in match - over 0.5 at 2.1 with bet365

Felix Auger Aliassime & Rune are probably the hottest players on tour. They're both relentless, refusing to be defeated by any opponent they face. In Basel FAA beat Rune in straight sets (6-3, 7-5), but this time around I don't think he'll manage to break Rune's serve with such ease. I believe what we're going to see is, both players holding their service games quite comfortably. Well, at least in one set, right? 

Good luck. 🤞

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I think it was a mental thing as well, just so many matches and still quite a few coming up, that's not easy to navigate unless you're a legend already. Can't see Rune doing much today, though, Djokovic has lost just one set since the Laver Cup!

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