NFL Week 5

[PercyP]

NFL Week 5 Predictions

With four weeks of the season in the record books I am hoping that the results become more predictable.

(1) Jags to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11

Its time I got onto the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon. Described as a generational talent he is now beginning to show what he can do. With other talented offensive players Christian Kirk, James Robinson and Travis Etienne the Jags should see off the Texans (0-3-1).

 (2) Buccs to win ATS -8.5 points @ 10/11

The Falcons are 4-0 ATS this year mainly due to the team’s top offensive weapon Cordarrelle Patterson. He is out this week. I can’t see them going into Tampa and causing an upset. Tom Brady will not let that happen.

(3) 49ers to win ATS – 6.5 @ 10/11

The 49ers were impressive winners last week and should continue this form against the Panthers who are relying on Christian McCaffrey too much. 49ers are the more talented team on both sides of the ball

(4) Vikings to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11

Last week’s comments “The Bears look very poor. No touchdown and only 3 points in the second half” make the Vikings clear favourites at home. Only a low scoring, time wasting game could stop the Vikings beating the spread. Vikings will only need 20 points to win this bet.

(5) Rams to win ATS -4.5 points @ 10/11

People are forgetting the Rams are the Super Bowl Champions and still have Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, Cam Akers and Matthew Stafford. They have the stars to win any match particularly at Sofi stadium.

Bet:

10 x 1 point trebles

5 x 3 point 4 timers

5 point accumulator

30 points staked

All prices Bet365

[PercyP]

 Second set of bets

(6) Bengals to win ATS +3.0 points @ 20/21

The Bengals beat the Ravens twice last year with a combined score of 82-38. Joe Burrow took them apart with his passing. They are 9-2 ATS on the road. The Ravens have lost 5 games straight at home.

(7) Packers to win ATS -8.0 points @ 10/11

The packers let me down last weekend, however they can return to my good books with a win against the Giants in London. Aaron Rodgers will be keen to show this new audience how good he is. Giants have injuries at QB.

(8) Colts to win ATS +3.0 points @ 20/21

This pick is totally opposite to what most people will chose, however, the Bronchos are 2-10 ATS against AFC opponents and colts are 6-1 ATS as an underdog.

(9) Chiefs to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11

The Chiefs are 13-2 in their last 15 games against Vegas. Say no more.

 (10) Dolphins to win ATS -3.0 points @ 5/6

The Jets beat the Steelers thanks to a late interception. The Dolphins are the more talented team. I expect Waddle and Hill to get amongst the points.

Bet:

10 x 0.5 point trebles

5 x 1.5 point 4 timers

2.5 point accumulator

15 points staked

[MinellaWorksop]

Two I like for this week are:

Tennessee Titans 1.86 Bet365 

The Titans play away at the Washington Commanders. Washington didn't play great last time out losing to the Cowboys and in contrast The Titans played well last time out winning as outsiders away at the Indianapolis Colts. Preferably the Titans will keep the winning momentum going.

 

Dallas Cowboys 2.95 Bet365

The Cowboys play away at the LA Rams and yes this is going to be a higher challenge for The Cowboys though we are getting the outsider odds to reflect this and I think they can rise to this challenge. The Cowboys having responded really well to losing QB Dak Prescott to injury early in the season and are now stringing together a nice bit of winning momentum. Fingers crossed once again that The Cowboys can preferably keep this winning streak going.

[harry_rag]

Lazy anytime TD interest trixie (prices look big v the spreads).

Harris (New England) 11/10

McCaffrey (Carolina) 7/5

Sanders (Philadelphia) 5/4

With Betway.

[harry_rag]

Just McCaffrey so no return. 

A couple of players in the final game appeal at the prices available on the exchange. Adams at 2.7 and Jacobs at 2.5.

I'd say there's enough of a chance that at least one of them scores to make it appealing at those odds.

[MinellaWorksop]

15 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Just McCaffrey so no return. 

A couple of players in the final game appeal at the prices available on the exchange. Adams at 2.7 and Jacobs at 2.5.

I'd say there's enough of a chance that at least one of them scores to make it appealing at those odds.

Both Adams and Jacobs deliver the goods. Top work mate.

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Both Adams and Jacobs deliver the goods. Top work mate.

Cheers, felt like I was due a bit of luck, perhaps the fates conspiring to tell me I should stick to singles!

[PercyP]

Keep the winners coming Harry.

[PercyP]

NFL Week 5 Results

This NFL season is so unpredictable. I can’t believe top QB’s Rodgers (leading 17-3), Brady (leading 21-0), Cousins (leading 21-3), Mahomes and Stafford all failed to beat the spread.

This resulted in another losing week.

Week 5 Record W3 L6 D1 - 45 points staked no return for a weekly loss of 45 points.

The YTD record is now: Total selections 50 - W19 D3 L28 staked 225.00 returned 44.56 for an overall loss of 180.44 points.

 (1) Jags to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11= Lost – Jags unable to beat the Texans (6-13)

Its time I got onto the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon. Described as a generational talent he is now beginning to show what he can do. Laurence passed the ball 286 yards compared to 140 yards by the Texans QB. The Jags however failed to get a touchdown.

 (2) Buccs to win ATS -8.5 points @ 10/11 = Lost – Buccs win 21-15

I can’t see them going into Tampa and causing an upset. Tom Brady will not let that happen. What were the Buccs doing? Cruising at 21-0, they allowed the Falcons back into the game.

(3) 49ers to win ATS – 6.5 @ 10/11= Won – Easy for 49ers 37-15

The 49ers were impressive winners last week and should continue this form against the Panthers who are relying on Christian McCaffrey too much. 49ers are the more talented team on both sides of the ball. 49ers were impressive again, completely dominating the Panthers.

(4) Vikings to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11= PUSH – Vikings win 29-22

Vikings will only need 20 points to win this bet. What were the Vikings doing? Vikings cruise to a 21-3 lead, but let the Bears back into the game.

(5) Rams to win ATS -4.5 points @ 10/11 = Lost – Cowboys win 22-10

People are forgetting the Rams are the Super Bowl Champions and still have Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, Cam Akers and Matthew Stafford. They have the stars to win any match particularly at Sofi stadium. The Rams need to protect the QB he was under pressure all game. Their offense has more holes than my socks.

 (6) Bengals to win ATS +3.0 points @ 20/21 = Won – Ravens win by 2(19-17), Bengals beat the spread.

The Bengals beat the Ravens twice last year with a combined score of 82-38. Joe Burrow took them apart with his passing. They are 9-2 ATS on the road. Now its 10-2 ATS.

(7) Packers to win ATS -8.0 points @ 10/11 = Lost – Packers throw away a big lead.

The packers let me down last weekend, however they can return to my good books with a win against the Giants in London. The Packers are really in my bad books now. Leading 17-3 and losing this game. How on earth?

(8) Colts to win ATS +3.0 points @ 20/21= Won – Colts win 12-9 in a game with no touchdowns.

This pick is totally opposite to what most people will chose, however, the Bronchos are 2-10 ATS against AFC opponents and colts are 6-1 ATS as an underdog. Lucky.

(9) Chiefs to win ATS -7.0 points @ 10/11 =Lost – Raiders went close to winning this game.

The Chiefs are 13-2 in their last 15 games against Vegas. Now its 14-2 but the Chiefs only won by one point. I wasn’t expecting that!

 (10) Dolphins to win ATS -3.0 points @ 5/6 = Lost – Jets take fully advantage of replacement QB.

The Dolphins are the more talented team. I expect Waddle and Hill to get amongst the points. All plans went out of the window when the Miami back-up QB was injured in the first play of the match.

[harry_rag]

81 players in my data sample so far (either odds on with the bookies or TD minutes >20 with the spread firms).

Backing blindly at best bookies price would see you 4.59 points down and backing at my target odds (fair +10% edge) would show a loss of 2.37 points.

Buying every player's TD minutes would show a loss of 416 points while selling would show a 232.5 point profit. It wouldn't surprise me if blindly selling every one of these players showed a profit come the end of the season though I think it will be closer than it is now. I'd expect buying to show a significant loss. (Most casual punters will only want to buy given the downside of selling so the price is pushed up to reflect that. Any value is likely to be found in selling.)