Non-League predictions - Saturday 1st October

[Darran]

Dorking v Dagenham & Redbridge

Dorking have seen 41 goals in their 10 games so far and Dagenham have seen 39. A lot of those goals in Dagenham games have come recently. They had 4 games on the bounce when there were 5 and then there was the 5-4 thriller against Barnet last week. 6 Dagenham games have seen over 3.5 goals and 7 Dorking goals have seen the same. Cue this game ending 0-0! Seriously though how is there not going to be lots of goals in this game given what we know about both teams. Over 3.5 is well worth backing.

 

Oldham v Wrexham

Wrexham have been superb at home this season. Hammering some of the lesser sides in the division and only Eastleigh have given them any issues. It will be interesting to see what happens when some good sides travel to the Racecourse, but away from home they have been anything but impressive. Not surprisingly they put 5 past a Dorking side who can't defend, but they have really struggled to create chances in their other games. I'm certain as I can be that they only beat Woking because they went down to 10 men. In their other 3 away games against Yeovil, Chesterfield and Southend the highest xG they have managed is 0.45. A team of Wrexham's quality should be anywhere that level against any team in this division and it is Parkinson's fault as he is the one who does the tactics. Quite why he doesn't get them to be as attacking minded as they are at home I don't know. Oldham are no Chesterfield or Southend, but they are at least as good as Yeovil. Granted a new inexperienced manager is a concern as to if he will be able to outperform Parkinson, but they did sign John Rooney this week and that is a cracking signing at this level. Clearly Wrexham should be favourites and are the most likely winners, but at 5/1 I am happy to take a chance Unsworth can get his first win in charge.

 

Torquay v Scunthorpe

There does seem to be a bit of improvement from Scunthorpe and given I think Torquay are basically the worst side in the division at the moment I will back the away win here. The sacking of Keith Hill has worked and they did well to come from 2 down against Dorking to end up winning 3-2. That was their first win since the opening day of the season and that will give them great confidence. Torquay really are lucky to have any points this season given how they have been playing and more than happy to take them on again.

 

Double

Notts County host Altrincham and Chesterfield host Maidenhead this weekend and both look home bankers. Even at a shade of odds on both look good bets. Granted Chesterfield were lucky to win at Maidstone last week, but back at home against a side who travel poorly they really ought to be winning. It was good to see Tshimanga back as well last week and he took his goal well. County were good at York and put the freak result against Dorking behind them. Altrincham needed a penalty against 10-man Aldershot to get their 1^st win of the season and Aldershot were poor. Again, it would be a big surprise if it wasn't a home win. I'm happy to even take a shade of odds on about the double.

 

Boreham Wood v Maidstone

The live game doesn't exactly look like it is going to be a cracker. Strangely Boreham Wood aren't doing all that well at home this season given that is usually their strong point. They have drawn to Altrincham and lost to Aldershot. They only beat Maidenhead 1-0 although they did get a deserved point against Notts County. I do think they will win this though as Maidstone have not been good on the road this season. They have lost their last 2 4-1 at Gateshead and 3-0 at Bromley and I don't think we will see the same Maidstone performance as we saw last week against Chesterfield. However, I am not sure we are going to see many goals here as Boreham Wood rarely score heavily and I think there is a spot of value in backing them to win and for there to be under 2.5 goals in the game. 

 

Leamington v AFC Telford (National League North)

I am really keen on Leamington here and more than happy to keep on opposing Telford. Amazingly given the managerial changes at this level this week (although granted one of them was due to a certain person being charged with sexual assault!) I am surprised that Paul Carden hasn't been sacked as Telford manager. They have only scored 5 goals all season and their away form is shocking. They didn't win away at all last season and their only win this season was at home. They have had a couple of draws away from home this season, but they have only scored twice and they were especially bad in their last away game at Gloucester. Leamington have only conceded 4 goals this season so there is a very strong chance that they keep Telford out here. The slight concern is in front of goal as they managed 4 against Farsley on the opening day, but after that they have only scored 1 or not at all. They are strong at home having won 4 and lost 1 in their 5 home games and there is every chance 1 goal will be enough to see them edge it.

 

Dorking v Dagenham over 3.5 goals 2pts @ 31/20 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/4)

Oldham 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2)

Scunthorpe 1pt @ 9/5 with William Hill, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/4)

Chesterfield/Notts County 3pts @ 0.96/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 8/11)

Boreham Wood and Under 2.5 goals 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 11/4)

Leamington 3pts @ 13/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 10/11)