aldric Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Red cards galore tonight, more luck this time though! ? JdsGooner90 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 Bet 2 Morocco vs Spain - Over 1.5 goals SV Halstenbek vs Kummerfelder - Over 0.5 First half goals £13.33 @ 1.56 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Bet 1 (0-0 7) aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Bet 2 (1-3 51) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Bet 3 (1-0 44) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) Bet 3 lost - Barcelona settle for one goal ? Attempts 6 Double ups complete 1 Thread bank -£40.00 Edited January 22, 2023 by JdsGooner90 aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Bet 1 (4-0 54) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Bet 1 lost - starting to feel the only way of profiting at the moment is by taking Kitten’s approach Attempts 7 Double ups complete 1 Thread bank -£50.00 aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Bet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Bet 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Bet 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Bet 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 2-2 FT Just not happening. Attempts 8 Double up complete 1 Thread bank -£60.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, JdsGooner90 said: 2-2 FT Just not happening. Attempts 8 Double up complete 1 Thread bank -£60.00 Just done a quick totting up and I make it you'd be around 5 points down if you'd backed every selection to 1 point level stakes (without deducting any commission). I appreciate it's stating the bleedin' obvious to say you need a significant improvement in the strike rate to get anywhere near the 50/50 success rate required for break even but I think it's worth knowing how your selections perform to level stakes so you know whether any problem lies with your selections or your staking approach. (If you're not winning to level stakes then you can expect to lose in the long run and any short term success is down to luck; if you are winning to level stakes but not in reality then it's the staking plan that's at fault.) Personally (and I've no doubt said similar before) I think you need to be more selective. No-one should be betting on U21 games and low-level leagues unless they've got specialist knowledge that gives them a genuine edge. I also think betting with the bookies in these markets (as opposed to the exchange in a market with decent liquidity) is reducing your chances of making a profit. You'd be close to a 100% book on the exchange (say 3 and 1.5) whereas Hills have the protection of an 108% book (e.g. 7/4 and 2/5). It's hard to see you beating that in the long run unless you know something they don't. I appreciate that this is very much at the low stakes/for fun end of the spectrum but it's still worth considering ways to improve things (as losing less would definitely be more fun)! My advice would be: Track the level stakes returns for your bets so you know how well you're really doing Less bets on low level games Less bets with the bookies JdsGooner90 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Not confident with this but maybe that’s the way to go! Purely for the odds. Bet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Was always going to be 0-0 wasn’t it I won my first attempt at this but have now lost the last 8 Attempts 9 Double ups complete 1 Thread bank -£70.00 aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Someone at Hills must have entered into a pact with the devil! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 13 hours ago, harry_rag said: Someone at Hills must have entered into a pact with the devil! Would it work if you always backed the epic odds at evens on hills. Then laid the same bet on betfair with the same liability? Should be very profitable for every losing epic odds bet? And break even if the epic odds wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, aldric said: Would it work if you always backed the epic odds at evens on hills. Then laid the same bet on betfair with the same liability? Should be very profitable for every losing epic odds bet? And break even if the epic odds wins. Not worth the bother for me given the tenner stake limit. If you have a scenario where there's an arb and one side of the bet offers clear value you'd be better in the long run just backing the value bet rather than taking the arb (as you're then splitting your stake across a good and a bad bet rather than just taking a good bet). One has to assume Hills have just had a period of good fortune with the way the results have gone on these selections lately. Worth considering each one on an individual basis and deciding whether to back it or not. Will have to decide whether to persist on putting them up in this thread though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Fair enough, I just remember that some of the bets had very low odds. The last bet was 1.25 by the looks of it, so £10 liability on betfair would be £40.. so £30 profit? Seems pretty hassle free for a few clicks? unless I am missing something. And if they keep losing they might let you stake more? ? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 I'll have a think. The tenner limit is universal; I guess they know a lot of the prices would be arb-able. They quoted that last one as increased from 1/4 but it was around 1.44 to lay on BF. Nothing surer to make their selections hit a winning streak than for us to start laying them to profit when they lose (but at least if one of us backed them and one of us laid them someone would be making a profit)! aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Bet 1 (1-3 HT) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Bet 2 (2-3 60) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Finally, its been a while! Attempts 10 Double ups complete 2 Thread bank -£60.00 harry_rag and aldric 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Bet 1 (1-0 54) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Bet 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Bet 3 (1-1 23) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 Bet 4 didn’t load earlier lost ? Had Over 3.5 goals at half time in Sevilla match , finished 3-0 Attempts 11 Challenges compete 2 Thread bank -£70.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 Bet 1 Chelsea vs Fulham (0-0 23) Over 0.5 goals £10.00 @ 1.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 Attempts 12 Challenges complete 2 Thread bank -£80.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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