NFL - Week 4

[PercyP]

NFL Week 4 Predictions

First set of selections:

NFL Week 4 Predictions

(1) Packers to win ATS -9.5 points @ 10/11

The Packers are 23-2 at home over the last 25 games. Patriots have lost QB Mac Jones who was playing excellently, without him the Patriots will find it difficult to score.

(2) NY Giants to win ATS -3.0 points @ 20/23

The Giants are coming off a short week having played Monday, this is usually a disadvantage. However, the G-men have won 7 straight in such circumstances. The Bears have not impressed me despite being 2-1. Their record of 2-8 in their past 10 away games makes the Giants the pick.

(3) Raiders to win ATS -2.5 points @ 10/11

The Bronco’s have won two games scoring an average of just 13.5 points this will not be enough against the raiders who boss this fixture winning 6 of the last 7 meetings.

(4) Steelers to win ATS -3.0 points @ 5/6

It is time for the Steelers to get their act together, who better to play this week than the Jets?  Pittsburgh has won 10 of their last 11 home games against the Jets. The uncertainty over who will be the Jets QB will also help the Steelers. Flacco is poor, whilst Wilson could be rusty.

(5) Cardinals to win ATS +1.5 points @ 10/11

The Cardinals have got into a great habit of winning away from home having won 9 of their last 10 away matches. I expect Kyler Murray to set the Cardinals alight.

Bet:

10 x 1 point trebles

5 x 3 point 4 timers

5 point accumulator

30 points staked

All prices Bet365

 

[PercyP]

Second set of selections

(6) 49ers to win ATS -1.5 points @ 10/11

Whilst, I noticed an improvement in the Rams performance last week, the 49ers appear to have the Rams number. They have won the last three home matches against the Rams.

(7) Washington to win ATS +3.0 points @ 1/1

Dallas has won 5 of the last 6 home games against Washington and they are in pretty good form. I was definitely surprised by the spread. The bookies may know something I don’t. So for this reason only, I am going with Washington to get their season going.

(8) Browns to win ATS -1.5 points @ 10/11

The Browns have won 4 of the last 5 games against the Falcons and 6 of 7 when away to Atlanta. Chubb and Hunt will do the damage.

(9) Baltimore to win ATS +3.0  @ 10/11

The Ravens have won their last five home games against the Bills. They are also 15-3 ATS as the underdog. This could go either way and has to be the best game of the weekend.

(10) Saints to win ATS +3.0 points @ 10/11

Current form lines clearly point to a Vikings victory. However the Saints rarely lose in October. Their record is 18 won 1 lost in previous 19 matches in October. The Saints will need to up their game based upon previous weeks performances. Playing in London may help.

Bet:

10 x 0.5 point trebles

5 x 1.5 point 4 timers

2.5 point accumulator

15 points staked

[MinellaWorksop]

One I like the look of today is:

Carolina Panthers 1.86 Bet365

In what looks to be an evenly contested match against the Arizona Cardinals I am going with the home side Panthers.

Both teams hold a 1-2 record this season so far, though the Panthers lost both their games by very tight margins and by late conceding of points so on another day they could have had a very different season record. The Cardinals will be no pushover as the odds clearly show. I am also impressed by the Panthers recent H2H record against the Cardinals currently standing at 5-0 from the last five meetings between the sides.

[harry_rag]

I had 3 lined up last night but didn't bother, Sod's law that 2 of them scored! 

No joy with Jones (Green Bay) but Williams (Detroit) and Patterson (Atlanta) both would have landed at 6/5.

I'll have a look at the last game and no doubt end up picking out a losing bet. 

[harry_rag]

I'll risk a couple of specials later, both with Hills.

12/1 for <43 total points, SF to win and Kupp to score a TD

All 3 components are odds on individually. Granted Kupp plays for LA so the related contingency (him scoring but being on the losing team) would push the odds out but you're looking at the equivalent of 2.35 for each component at this price. Big enough to merit a small bet for me.

9/4 Kupp >100 receiving yards and to score a TD

This season and last he scored a TD in 13 out of 20 games and also managed the ton-up yardage in 13 of those games. He did both in 11 out of 20 games. This game may be tougher than average but I don't think it's such a bad match-up for him to put me off at those odds.

 

[PercyP]

NFL Week 4 Results

It’s coming.  Browns, Steelers, Ravens and Saints were all unlucky. Only Green Bay and Washington disappointed.

First bets W3 L2 – Staked 30 points, return 6.81 lost, 23.19 points.

(1) Packers to win ATS -9.5 points @ 10/11 – Lost = Packers win in overtime

The Packers are 23-2 at home over the last 25 games. Now 24-2 but failed to beat the spread. Shout out to third choice QB rookie Bailey Zappe who played well.

(2) NY Giants to win ATS -3.0 points @ 20/23 – Won = Giants win 20-12

The Giants are coming off a short week having played Monday, this is usually a disadvantage. However, the G-men have won 7 straight in such circumstances. Now its 8 straight wins. Why? I don’t know.  Bears look very poor. No touchdown and only 3 points in the second half.

(3) Raiders to win ATS -2.5 points @ 10/11 – Won = Las Vegas 32-23 over Denver

The Bronco’s have won two games scoring an average of just 13.5 points this will not be enough against the Raiders who boss this fixture winning 6 of the last 7 meetings. This was another win for the Raiders in this fixture.

(4) Steelers to win ATS -3.0 points @ 5/6 – Lost = Jets win 24-20 thanks to an interception which set up the Jets' game-winning score with under a minute left

Wilson could be rusty. He wasn’t. Wilson threw for 252 yards and a TD.

(5) Cardinals to win ATS +1.5 points @ 10/11 – Won = Cardinals win 26-16

The Cardinals have got into a great habit of winning away from home having won 9 of their last 10 away matches. Now, 10 wins from 11 away from home.

Second Bets W1 D2 L2 15 points staked, return 0.95points, lost 14.05 points.

(6) 49ers to win ATS -1.5 points @ 10/11 – Won = 49ers impressive winner 24-9

Whilst, I noticed an improvement in the Rams performance last week, the 49ers appear to have the Rams number. They have won the last three home matches against the Rams.

(7) Washington to win ATS +3.0 points @ 1/1 – Lost = Dallas win 25-10

Dallas has won 5 of the last 6 home games against Washington and they are in pretty good form. I was definitely surprised by the spread. The bookies may know something I don’t. So for this reason only, I am going with Washington to get their season going. Tricked into thinking Washington was good.

(8) Browns to win ATS -1.5 points @ 10/11 – Lost = Atlanta win 23-20

The Browns have won 4 of the last 5 games against the Falcons and 6 of 7 when away to Atlanta. Chubb and Hunt will do the damage. This is a game the Brown’s should have won.

(9) Baltimore to win ATS +3.0 @ 10/11 – Drew – Bills come back to snatch win 23-20.

The Ravens have won their last five home games against the Bills. They are also 15-3 ATS as the underdog. This could go either way and has to be the best game of the weekend. After dominating for most of the first half and holding a 20-3 lead, the Ravens forgot how to play in the second half. 

(10) Saints to win ATS +3.0 points @ 10/11 – Drew – Vikings hold on 28-25 as last kick of game hits the post and the crossbar and does not go over.

Saints rarely lose in October. Close to another victory.

Week 4 Record W4 D2 L4 Staked 45.00 returned 7.76 points for an overall loss of 37.24 points.

YTD Record - Total selections 40 - W16 D2 L22 staked 180.00 returned 44.56 for an overall loss of 135.44 points.

[harry_rag]

2 out of 3 on the 12/1 shot but no TD for the Rams let alone Kupp!