Tennis Tips - September 19 - September 25

[CzechPunter]

[four-leaf]

Su Jeong Jang to beat Lin Zhu at 2.40 with Unibet

It's WTA Seoul and I'm backing the South Korean Jang. Su hasn't played on hard for awhile but she's at home and have beaten Zhu 3 times in 4 tries and the first was a route 2013 Incheon - South Korea and the last won something similar where Su won 2-0 and they've met all times on hard court. Lin Zhus ranking is lying a bit, she's up to 69 right now but still hasn't played very well this season but had a few easy tournament wins on ITF level. Her last made her jump 20 spots and after that 7 spots for being knocked out in qualies round 2 of USO. I'm not impressed by Zhu. Su is the value pick and she's got some decent form as well.

[amity]

I don't think odds are up yet but I'll likely be taking on Badosa in Tokyo. When she's on form, she's up there with the best but her current form is extremely hit and miss. Odds aren't up yet but Zheng is a very tough opponent, especially in Aisa, where she'll obviously be very comfortable. Zheng to win quarter 1 at 4/1 with Bet365 looks tasty and I wouldn't put anyone off a small wager on her outright at 14/1, also with Bet365. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by amity

[CzechPunter]

I think Bergs against Basilashvili at 1.60 with BetVictor looks good today, it's probably worth it to keep opposing Basilashvili until he gets a win. He was going through some rough issues off the court recently, and who knows how ready he is.

[CzechPunter]

Well, Bergs leads and retires, shame. Don't see any value in backing Rinderknech against him at 1.30.

[four-leaf]

Trying the following acca tonight. 

Barrere to beat Otte at 1.81

Barrere has a 2-0 head to head advantage and has beaten Otte indoors before in France and he was pretty good in the qualies. Otte hasn't got much of a form since being so successful on grass this summer.

Gasquet to beat Thiem at 1.83

Thiem is still so far away from his best you could start to wonder if he ever will get back to top 50 even. He's not there at all while Richard still has the skills indoors. He's beaten Thiem twice indoors before and Thiem really is not a great example of someone you can rely on at an indoor hardcourt.

Total odds: 3.31 at Coolbet

[CzechPunter]

Wow, Wawrinka beating Medvedev just now. Can go further as well!

[carina007]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Wow, Wawrinka beating Medvedev just now. Can go further as well!

Medvedev played bad or Stan played well? I see 12 double faults from Medvedev...

Odd looks tempting for tomorrow against Ymer

[four-leaf]

Mikael Ymer to beat Stan at 2.03 with Unibet

No idea how Stan beat Meddy but I guess Meddy doesn't have his best year this season. So 12 df by Meddy? No wonder he lost to Stan who's way past his prime. Good chance for Mike to get to another semifinal and improve his ranking by 27+ spots. He could go from 100 to 63 if he beats Stan which is a good chance he will.

Edited September 23, 2022 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

James Duckworth to beat Marcus Giron at 2.62 with Unibet

If there's gonna be an upset in San Diego quarters it's gonna be this one. Don't rate Giron as the better player here because you're probably doing a mistake then. James may be lower ranked atm but he's done a good job in San Diego. Giron to me doesn't fill the boots of being the fav.

[Foo_Fighter]

Team World to win the Laver Cup at 6.00 with bet365

Ruud and Tsitsipas gave an early lead to Team Europe after their wins against Sock and Schwartzman respectively. 

I expect Alex to grab the first point for Team World in his match against Murray. Tennis is a lot of the times about match-ups, and I feel that this is a pretty bad one for Andy. How will he cope with the Aussie's insane speed? 

I think the timing is quite perfect for those who desire to back Team World, and I cannot hide that I happen to be one among them. Besides, Team Europe is lacking arguably its most valuable member (Zverev), and this, if nothing else, is a great blow for the team. Zverev has played an instrumental role in Team Europe's early success in the competition, winning the clinching matches in 2018 and 2019. Team Europe is also lacking the out of form Medvedev, who's still Medvedev though (apparently Europe in its entirety does not want anything related to Russia these days). 

Taylor Fritz and FAA might score a lot of points for Team World the upcoming days. They're the truly elite players of this team, and along with Djokovic (and maybe Nadal, but I highly doubt he's currently in a good condition), the most elite players of the tournament.

[888888]

watched 3 hours of Ymer to see him lose by the smallest possible margin, 7-5 in the tie break in the third set, trash player.

[Grass Cash]

Qinwen Zheng @-105 Tokyo

Lock it up boys and girls. This girl i have been following off and on, and I feel as though I've got a good read on her play.. I was on Niemaier to beat her in US Open if some remember. I am picking her to win the match, and it is also a partial fade of Kudemetova who I believe she can potentially elevate her game above today 

These courts are fast in Tokyo, but perfect speed also for her aggressive hitting. Not too fast.

[Schokolade]

3 hours ago, money44 said:

Qinwen Zheng @-105 Tokyo

 

Good call and thank you.

[four-leaf]

14 hours ago, 888888 said:

watched 3 hours of Ymer to see him lose by the smallest possible margin, 7-5 in the tie break in the third set, trash player.

Agree

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome @Schokolade!

[Grass Cash]

I just cashed on Sonego. I guess I would say Wawrinka has a decent chance but he seemed injured a little bit last match.. scared me off the bet.. I might be taking a look in play at this one but I will not be betting Bublik at any point. I was on Stan to beat Ymer yesterday, and I thought he'd do it a bit easier.  He's got a big test today, but I wasn't impressed with Bublik yesterday.. If Stan is healthy.. I say he chops a few balls back in court and takes this..  Really uncertain about it, but I'm rating the match as closer to a coin flip. Stan maybe 47%. 

[neilovan]

Surely the performance of the day must go to Hurkacz who at 2.9 to 10 plays like a clown.

Atrocious tennis, not able to get 1 break point, against Sonego, who cannot be considered an elite player.

Plays a useless breaker and follows it up with a feeble reply in the 2nd set. 

Just a bad time to bet on matches, as nobody seems to be brining their 'A' game or any effort.

Best match I've seen all week was Lui v Zheng . Just terrific match, high quality, few errors, full commitment.

Edited September 24, 2022 by neilovan

[Grass Cash]

4 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Surely the performance of the day must go to Hurkacz who at 2.9 to 10 plays like a clown.

Atrocious tennis, not able to get 1 break point, against Sonego, who cannot be considered an elite player.

Plays a useless breaker and follows it up with a feeble reply in the 2nd set. 

Just a bad time to bet on matches, as nobody seems to be brining their 'A' game or any effort.

it's a great time to bet on matches for me. Sonego has been a freight train this tournament.. the line was so far off.. you had to play him

[Grass Cash]

Sonego had the h2h lead, and beat him last time indoor hard in Vienna. The quality between those two players is also very level. and u get 2.6/1 on one of them.

[neilovan]

1 minute ago, money44 said:

it's a great time to bet on matches for me. Sonego has been a freight train this tournament.. the line was so far off.. you had to play him

I have not been betting much. Just watching the occasional game.

[Grass Cash]

Wawrinka +150 in play Metz

I have decided the value is too much not to have action on this. Bublik was serving so many double faults, and I was not impressed with Holger Rune.. Stan should make this a close match for sure

[Grass Cash]

Stan has retired. I am thankful for return of my bet. I think he will be back next year for some more magic. He was playing quite well in this tournament.

[four-leaf]

Stan is injury prone and 37 years old. Quite close to retirement like Fedal.

Edited September 24, 2022 by four-leaf

[Grass Cash]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Stan is injury prone and 37 years old. Quite close to retirement like Fedal.

yah

[amity]

13 hours ago, Schokolade said:

Good call and thank you.

I called it too, a bit earlier in the thread.?

[Grass Cash]

you guys got any picks for tomorrow .. I like to hear them please!!

[Grass Cash]

Lorenzo Sonego -105 Metz

Jelena Ostapenko +115 Seoul

Sonego has proven himself in Metz already as a determined player. I think he can outclass Bublik

Jelena just murdering the ball in the tournament. Fans seem to be in awe of how hard she's hitting. Not trusting Alexandrova. 

[neilovan]

1 minute ago, money44 said:

Lorenzo Sonego -105 Metz

Jelena Ostapenko +115 Seoul

Sonego has proven himself in Metz already as a determined player. I think he can outclass Bublik

Jelena just murdering the ball in the tournament. Fans seem to be in awe of how hard she's hitting. Not trusting Alexandrova. 

Gasonova should have beaten Ostapenko. She actually served for the match twice. At 5-4 up serving for the match she had a match point. Served a double fault. At deuce she served another double. That messed her head and then she lost 5-7. What is as clear as day, is that top players are beatable in the early rounds, while they recover from travel and  are finding their feet. As they go deep they get much closer to their normal playing ability. The problem is that at that stage an opponent has some pedigree or is playing exceptionally well.

I think Alexandrova wins here. Just been super solid, and has swept her last 3 opponents aside easily. Not convinced regarding Ostapenko. 

 

[Schokolade]

I took the advice from both @neilovan and @money44 and anticipated a tense 1st round. Went for over9.5 games in the first set @1.99 and Ostapenko over11.5 total games with my stingy local bookie. Thanks again everyone.