Europa League Predictions > Sep 15th

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the odds for the second round of group games from the Europa League heading our way this week. Take a look and share any thoughts or bets you have lined up for these fixtures down below. A lot to unravel so keen to hear what you have to say! 

[StevieDay1983]

The game between Arsenal and PSV has been postponed due to police limitations...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/62874403

[Mrsha]

Trabzonspor -1/4 @2.11
Min price to bet: -1/4 @2.05
Model +value: -
Significant team news: -
Note: Both teams with undeserved losses in first round, and both in quite poor form overall. Trazbzonspor have won just 1 of their last 7 competitive games, losing their key rw Visca to injury in early Aug was a clear blow, but they also sold key cf Cornelius a few weeks ago to FCK, bringing in Maxi Gomez as a high-profile replacement. They are not weaker than last season (except for Visca's injury) as they also brought in some quality players from La Liga this summer (mid Bardhi and cb Bartra); however with all of Galata, Fener and Besiktas stronger this year, it will be hard to defend Turkish title. Red Star have also considerably slowed down in recent weeks, just 2 wins in last 7 competitive fixtures, 3 straight below-average performances in the weak Serbian league, that painful loss to Monaco in a game in which they actually played quite well, but again gifted a penalty to the opponent, it was literally a gift as there was no danger whatsoever, but it is the trademark of most of teams from this region anyway, a general lack of concentration and, why not say it, some plain stupidity from individuals. Red Star are also stronger than last season and they still feel the pain from failure to qualify for UCL group stage, as they had a favorable schedule and certainly were favorites against Maccabi Haifa; but again, they made some silly mistakes and gifted Israelis a lucrative UCL participation. Not much between these two sides at the moment, but Trabzon do have home advantage and we would make them a bet at prices above 205 -1/4. The betting market does not like Trabzon this season at all, with prices moving against them almost by default; not sure if that will happen tomorrow though as there was a substantial early move on Red Star already. Price on overs should improve, and could perhaps be of interest, though the problem is that this could be a very heated game with quite a few cards, possibly a red card as well, which is never good for goals... but let's see where is the market tomorrow. Ok weather.

Freiburg -1/4 @2.13
Min price to bet: -1/4 @2.07 or dnb @1.71
Model +value: -
Significant team news: -
Note: Olympiacos almost got a point at Nantes last week, despite showing nothing on the pitch, being outplayed for 90 mins with lucky own-goal at the start of 2nd half making it 1-1, and late winning goal for Nantes was fully deserved. Another bad performance followed in domestic league, they rotated heavily but were still expected to beat Volos, only to draw 1-1, which means they have won only 2 of their first 11 competitive games this season. Freiburg are flying high in Bundesliga with 4-1-1 after 6 rounds, they beat Qarabag 2-1 last week to get the first 3 points in UEL, and they are clearly in much better shape. However, they had a very demanding game (physically) against Gladbach on Sun, and with another important league game coming up in 3 days against Hoffenheim, there is a danger that coach Streich could rotate a bit more heavily here. Now, Freiburg have a solid depth and many players of similar quality and characteristics, so unless wholesale changes are made, it should still be fine. Olympiacos won't spare anyone here, this is key game for them and they will field what coach considers their best poss 11 without a doubt, so in terms of attitude towards this game, the Greek champs do have an upper hand; and in case Streich opts for very heavy rotation, this price on the visitors could sky-rocket, but we are happy to take a risk on current price as well, it already allows for 3-4 changes in Freiburg's 11. Potentially huge coup in transfer market for Olympiacos, as they are just about to announce the signing of Colombian intl superstar James Rodriguez, though it remains to be seen in what shape he is... if it's ok, he will help this team a lot, but in any case he won't be available tomorrow.

Malmo +1 @1.86
Min price to bet: +1 @1.80 or +3/4 @2.14
Model +value: -
Significant team news: first choice cb Moisander and cm Christensen are out for Malmo after first half injuries in last game v Norrkoping, mid Rakip is still out as well; for USG rwb Nieuwkoop is likely out
Note: Union SG with brilliant win at Union Berlin last week, Malmo with a home loss against Braga; and while the Belgians are big favs here, we would give them 56-56.5% to win, so believe that at current prices there is ok value on Malmo. Union SG are a good, smart team, perhaps not as strong as last season when they almost won the title in Bel; but they are not too far off - however, they are more suited for games where they don't have to create and attack, which they will probably have to do against Malmo, as Swedish team is likely to be defensive here. Moisander may be 37yo, however he is still an automatic first choice when available, so we have to assume this will be a weaker Malmo defence; while mid Anders Christensen is also a first choice when fit; and with a couple of other players missing Malmo do not have favorable team-news here, but we did move USG win up for that, and it should be covered in 56%. 2-1 win over Norrkoping on Sun is a big boost, they were down after only 3 mins but found their way back, created a TON of chances, could have and should have scored five, efficiency was again missing, but at least they did get the win and travel to Belgium with their tails up.

Bodo o3 @1.93
Min price to bet: o3 @1.87 or o3.25 @2.15
Model +value: -
Significant team news: key fwd Pellegrino still out for Bodo
Note: It's a real shame that this brilliant Bodo side almost certainly won't win the title in Norway this season, they've done so much good for both them and country and football in general in last couple of years; but heavy schedule, some injuries and a bit of luck for their main rivals Molde mean no UCL for them next season, they were so close to group stage this year, with Dinamo Zagreb prevailing in extra time in playoffs final. Full focus for Bodo on this UEL game, they would have prioritized it regardless of situation in the league, european nights are always big for them, especially at home, and this should be another one. Zurich are in dreadful position in Swiss Superleague, no wins and just 2 points after 8 games, but they've shown some really good stuff against Servette on Sun, never should've lost that game - they were actually the better of the two, had more initiative, hit the post at 2-2 (of course), then got the needless red card 20 mins from time and conceded a goal for 3-2 with last kick of the game in 96th minute. They are likely to play this game with a freedom and without a pressure they feel in Superleague, they have more than enough offensive weapons to create here, especially on counter-attacks as Bodo are expected to be v aggressive and offensive, dominant in possession in Zurich's half; and while we don't like the chances of Swiss reigning champs to avoid a loss here, goals should def be on the menu, 3.40-3.45 est TG. This price should drop tomorrow, in case this doesn't happen and it improves, it would almost certainly mean some late negative team-news.

Rennes o2.75 @2.01
Min price to bet: o2.75 @1.95
Model +value: -
Significant team news: Rennes still without a few players who would be in contention for 11 or first options off the bench (wng Doku, fwd Kalimuendo, cb Omari), but it's the same squad as in last couple of weeks, except that cm Santamaria is now out injured
Note: Rennes rotated heavily in Cyprus last week, leaving their main offensive guns on the bench; and since they play Marseille on Sun, they may rotate heavily again here - but with this being a home game against strongest opponent in the group, it's quite possible Rennes won't mess around as much this time around, especially as we also have international break coming up after this weekend. The hosts scored five against Auxerre on Sun, they were a joy to watch and also managed to keep a clean sheet for the first time this season; however it is highly unlikely they will achieve that against this strong Fenerbahce side, who have played 10 games since their UCL qualif.loss against Dinamo Kiev, and scored at least 2 goals in 8 of those; and the only two in which they failed to do that were return leg v Slovacko in UEL playoff finals, in which they rotated heavily after easy 3-0 win in 1st leg, and league game at Konya, in which they were reduced to 10 men after only 20 minutes. Both to score here, in good, dynamic game, though price is nothing special really, and could perhaps improve tomorrow.

[StefanBB]

Rennes vs Fenerbahce

After an impressive start in Ligue 1, where the hosts are in 6th place with eleven points after seven games, they will go into this match full of confidence. Rennes started their Europa League campaign with a 2-1 win over AEK Larnaca and will be looking to make it two wins in a row in Europe for the first time since November 2021, when they picked up three wins. They go to this clash after smashing Auxerre 5-0 last weekend and hope for another successful outcome from this encounter. Arnaud Kalimuendo (Torn Muscle),  Jérémy Doku (Muscle Injury) and Baptiste Santamaria (Injury to the ankle) will not be able to play for Rennes manager Bruno Génésio.

On the other hand, the visitors won 2-1 against Dynamo Kyiv on matchday one, making it six wins from their last seven games in all competitions, so Thursday's game should be an exciting encounter. Just like the hosts, Fenerbahce has not been convincing defensively, conceding an average of one goal per game in their last five matches, which is why we expect goals here. Nevertheless, Fenerbahce has been pretty productive recently, netting 15 goals in the domestic campaign. After two straight wins, the visitors will try to extend that run after this outing. Owing to a fully injury-free group ready to go, the Fenerbahçe manager Jorge Jesus has zero fitness concerns to speak of coming into this clash.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Rennes has been pretty confident on the home ground since they celebrated in six of the previous seven matches at Roazhon Park. Although Fenerbahce could be a tricky opponent, we think the home side will meet expectations and pick up another three points.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams have been pretty clinical in the final third, but their defenses haven't been too tight. Therefore, we should see an entertaining clash that should bring at least a goal in each net.

Rennes to Win @ 1.70

BTTS Yes @ 1.75

Correct score 2:1 @ 8.50

[Heisenberg68]

52 minutes ago, StefanBB said:

Rennes vs Fenerbahce

After an impressive start in Ligue 1, where the hosts are in 6th place with eleven points after seven games, they will go into this match full of confidence. Rennes started their Europa League campaign with a 2-1 win over AEK Larnaca and will be looking to make it two wins in a row in Europe for the first time since November 2021, when they picked up three wins. They go to this clash after smashing Auxerre 5-0 last weekend and hope for another successful outcome from this encounter. Arnaud Kalimuendo (Torn Muscle),  Jérémy Doku (Muscle Injury) and Baptiste Santamaria (Injury to the ankle) will not be able to play for Rennes manager Bruno Génésio.

On the other hand, the visitors won 2-1 against Dynamo Kyiv on matchday one, making it six wins from their last seven games in all competitions, so Thursday's game should be an exciting encounter. Just like the hosts, Fenerbahce has not been convincing defensively, conceding an average of one goal per game in their last five matches, which is why we expect goals here. Nevertheless, Fenerbahce has been pretty productive recently, netting 15 goals in the domestic campaign. After two straight wins, the visitors will try to extend that run after this outing. Owing to a fully injury-free group ready to go, the Fenerbahçe manager Jorge Jesus has zero fitness concerns to speak of coming into this clash.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Rennes has been pretty confident on the home ground since they celebrated in six of the previous seven matches at Roazhon Park. Although Fenerbahce could be a tricky opponent, we think the home side will meet expectations and pick up another three points.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams have been pretty clinical in the final third, but their defenses haven't been too tight. Therefore, we should see an entertaining clash that should bring at least a goal in each net.

Rennes to Win @ 1.70

BTTS Yes @ 1.75

Correct score 2:1 @ 8.50

I don't agree with you because Rennes is not having a very good start to the championship. 
We lost to Lorient and Lens (two teams in great shape), but also Draw with Monaco who were very bad and draw with Troye. 
The victory against Auxerre is not very good despite the score. It was very complicated in the first half. 
The same against Larnaca. 

I think Lay Rennes today. Fenerbahce is a team with a lot of experience in the European Cup. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Heisenberg68