NFL - Week 1

[PercyP]

Lets hope 2022 is a very profitable year.

Here are my first picks.

The Saints are renowned as a bully team. The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a disappointing 2021/22 season with veteran QB Marcus Mariota taking over as the Atlanta QB having sat on the sidelines for the last few years. I would not like to be in his shoes.

Saints to win ATS -5.5 Points @ 10/11

The 49ers have improved their roster, whilst the Bears are going backwards.  

49ers to win ATS -7 Points @ 10/11

Is the Super Bowl loser hangover real? The trend is 4-18 ATS over the past 22 seasons which does not inspire confidence in the Bengals particularly as there standout QB Joe Burrow has had surgery and has had limited training in the offseason.  

Steelers to win ATS +6.5 Points @ 10/11

The patriots always find it difficult to win in Miami. With the Dolphins having improved their offensive weapons and maintained their solid defensive unit, the Patriots will need to be extra special to win this.

Miami Dolphins to win ATS -3 Points @ 10/11

Russell Wilson is returning to Seattle to face his former team with his new one. The Broncos are much stronger whilst the Seahawks continue to regress. I expect Russell to turn it on.

Bronco’s to win ATS -6.5 Points @ 10/11

Bet 1 point Canadian (doubles, trebles, four timers and roll up) plus 4 point roll up. 30 points staked. All prices from Bet365

[PercyP]

To have an interest in more games I am doing a second set of bets.

The Baltimore Ravens suffered from an unprecedented number of injuries last season. With players returning they should  be far superior to the jets.

Ravens to win ATS -7 points @ 10/11

Tampa Bay were the Super Bowl champs in 2021. Tom Brady will see Tampa win by at least a field goal.

Tampa to win ATS - 2.5 points @ 10/11

The Giants also had injuries to deal with last season. In the prior season (2020/21) they kept most games close. The titans are single minded using Derrick Henry way too much. Giants May cause the first upset of the season.

Giants to win ATS +5.5 points @ 10/11

The Lions fought hard and never gave up last year. However they will not cope with a talented Eagles team.

Eagles to win ATS -4 points @ 10/11

Betting against Aaron Rodgers is not usually advised however the improved Vikings at home in the first game of the season is the exception.

Vikings to win money line @ 21/20

Bet 0.5 Canadian plus 2 point accumulator = 15 points staked. Prices and spreads Bet365.

 

[harry_rag]

Will be on Kupp to score a TD (best price is 5/6 but will see if I can beat that on the exchange).

Tempted/suckered in by the Hills double up boost; 7/1 for Kupp and Diggs both to score a TD and 50 or more points in the game.

[harry_rag]

On 9/5/2022 at 2:28 PM, PercyP said:

Bet 1 point Canadian (doubles, trebles, four timers and roll up) plus 4 point roll up. 30 points staked.

Only my opinion but I don't think that the Canadian is a great approach to backing selections at these prices. If my maths are right you still lose most of your stake for 2 winners and are just better than break even for 3. I'd normally try and stake multiples so that my minimum return was pretty much break even so I'd guess that I'd be backing minimum trebles. For anyone who doesn't see the point in a potential break even return then the argument would be just split the total stake across the 4 and 5 folds. I'll have a think when time allows (now that my interest is piqued) but the return from the doubles doesn't seem worth bothering with to me.

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Will be on Kupp to score a TD (best price is 5/6 but will see if I can beat that on the exchange).

Matched at 1.93.

[harry_rag]

Well I wasn't expecting the "shorty" approach to throw up quite so many potential bets, though it's the later games where there seems to be 2 players in every game. For the early games there were 5 potential bets and I've ruled out Taylor at 4/9 for Indianapolis. That leaves me with these 4:

McCaffrey at 10/11 (Carolina)

Kamara at 10/11 (Atlanta)

Mixon at 10/11 (Cincinnati)

Swift at 8/5 (Detroit)

Most are best price with 365 who don't seem keen on allowing me a worthwhile stake for singles (or any for multis) so I've hopped across to Betway for next best prices and covered the trebles and the fourfold. Will do for an interest.

[harry_rag]

2 winners (McCaffrey and Swift) so no return from the bet. Would have showed a slight profit if I'd just backed singles. Would have been a loss backing the doubles. 3 would've made for a decent return so no regrets about the staking approach.

Glad I didn't bother backing the later games; had a shortlist of 6 (2 players in each of 3 games, one odds on and one odds against in each). One winner at 7/5 would have made for a poor return however I'd backed them.

Javonte Williams a possible bet in the final game of the weekend.

[PercyP]

On 9/8/2022 at 4:49 PM, harry_rag said:

Only my opinion but I don't think that the Canadian is a great approach to backing selections at these prices. If my maths are right you still lose most of your stake for 2 winners and are just better than break even for 3. I'd normally try and stake multiples so that my minimum return was pretty much break even so I'd guess that I'd be backing minimum trebles. For anyone who doesn't see the point in a potential break even return then the argument would be just split the total stake across the 4 and 5 folds. I'll have a think when time allows (now that my interest is piqued) but the return from the doubles doesn't seem worth bothering with to me.

Harry, spot on with your comments. Never thought of it that way. This is why I like the lounge even with over 50 years of gambling experience you can learn something new. I shall change my approach to NFL betting going forward.

 

[PercyP]

Week 1 Results

First 5 selections W2 L3 Staked 30.00 returned just 3.64 for a loss of 26.36 points

(1) Saints to win ATS -5.5 Points @ 10/11- Lost = Saints win 27-26 but they fail to cover the spread.

The Saints showed incredible resiliency to fight back from 17-3 deficit to win this game. However, the team played very poorly for three quarters of the game against Atlanta who may have one of the worst rosters in football.

(2) 49ers to win ATS -7 Points @ 10/11 – Lost = 49ers beaten by the Bears 19-10

Played in horrific monsoon conditions the 49ers made mistakes in this game. Trey Lance would not have enjoyed his full time debut.

(3) Steelers to win ATS +6.5 Points @ 10/11- Won = Steelers win game 23-20

Is the Super Bowl loser hangover real? The trend is 4-18 ATS over the past 22 seasons. Make that 4-19.

(4) Miami Dolphins to win ATS -3 Points @ 10/11- Won = Miami ease to a 20-7 victory.

The Patriots will need to be extra special to win this. They were not.

(5) Bronco’s to win ATS -6.5 Points @ 10/11- Lost = Seattle pull off a surprise win 17-16

I expect Russell to turn it on. Wilson finished 29 of 42 passes for 340 yards, and found Jerry Jeudy with a 67-yard touchdown pass, but the Broncos committed 12 penalties and fumbled twice on the goalline.

Second 5 selections W4 L1staked 15.00 returned 33.16 a profit of 18.16 points. So close to a full house.

(6) Ravens to win ATS -7 points @ 10/11- Won = Ravens have an easy win 24-9

With players returning they should be far superior to the jets. They were.

(7) Tampa to win ATS - 2.5 points @ 10/11- Won = Tampa win19-3

A blowout win for Tampa over the Dallas Cowboys. Tampa Bay’s defense was on a different level holding Dallas to a mere three points.

(? Giants to win ATS +5.5 points @ 10/11- Won= Giants win game 21-20

Giants May cause the first upset of the season. They were certainly one of the upsets.

(9) Eagles to win ATS -4 points @ 10/11- Lost = Eagles win 38-35 failing to beat the spread.

The Eagles took their foot off the pedal in the final quarter allowing the Lions garbage points having led 31-14. This result was costly preventing a full 5 wins from 5 picks.

(10) Vikings to win money line @ 21/20 – Won = Vikings win 23-7

Betting against Aaron Rodgers is not usually advised however the improved Vikings at home in the first game of the season is the exception. Vikings looked very good.

Week 1 Overall Record W6 L4 Staked 45.00 returned 36.80 for an overall loss of 8.20 points, but plenty of excitement along the way.

[harry_rag]

On 9/12/2022 at 1:00 PM, harry_rag said:

Javonte Williams a possible bet in the final game of the weekend.

Matched at 2.6 but lost. 3 winners from the 6 TD scorer selections posted, would have shown a small profit to level stakes as singles but fell foul of the staking approach on Sunday.

On to week 2!