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Europa League Predictions > Sep 8th


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Malmo o2.5 @1.95
Min price to bet: o2.5 @1.90 or o2.75 @2.14
Model +value: -
Significant team news: first choice gk Dahlin out inj for Malmo; first choice centre backs Tormena (suspended) and Niakate (injured) are out for Braga, they have started all 5 games this season (rw Medeiros suspended as well, but that's no big deal)
Note: Malmo with disastrous season so far, for their standards and ambition, this EL group stage is the only good thing really, after they beat Sivasspor in UEL playoff finals; but early elimination from UCL qualifiers against Lithuanian side Zalgiris and their league campaign in Allsvenskan, where they are only 7th, massive 11 points behind leaders Hacken, can only be described as terrible. It is a fact they have been unlucky in the league, they should've won more points and really should've scored more goals, if you look at the number of chances and big chances created, also their xG, but it's also a fact they have failed to control the games against teams of lower quality, stability was missing, not only efficiency. Braga are simply on fire at the start of Portuguese Superliga, they are 2nd with 4-1-0 record, the only unbeaten team with Benfica so far, and they have scored a league high 18 goals (!), with at least 3 in first 4 games, only for Vitoria Guimaraes to trouble them in big derby this Sun, where Braga needed a late inj time goal for 1-0 win (though they missed a pen early in 2nd half). Both teams have their old coaches back in charge - Malmo appointed Age Hareide as head coach this week, he has led them before to Allsvenskan title and UCL group stage participation; while Braga have Arthur Jorge in charge this season, he never really left the club after he was a head coach in 2020, but coached Braga's B team, and also worked with youth team and u21 team in the past several years, so he knows Braga inside out, to say the least. Both teams are expected to give this competition a go, and while the league is of course very important, neither have a high profile game this weekend, so something close to best 11 should be expected from both, especially from the hosts. Malmo used to be a tricky opponent at home for bigger sides in the past, they had some big results here, but something is missing in this current squad and Braga are deserved favs, but they are missing 2 first choice centre backs and price on them is not tempting to us, though they are def not the team we want to oppose at the moment. TG look interesting, Braga's team-news are supportive here and Malmo should really take advantage of this situation, but keeping Braga at bay is something else and difficult to imagine - we would go with TG 2.90-2.95 and believe there is enough value in current offer, but also believe price for o2.5 could go above @2.00 tomorrow once the market opens even more, for bigger stakes.

Nantes -1/4 @2.12
Min price to bet: -1/4 @2.06 or dnb @1.75 (in theory, dnb @1.70 is also ok on our numbers, it's sort of equivalent to -1/4 206 in this case, but we wouldn't really go for dnb at such low-ish price, so putting 175 as official min, though in general we are v unlikely to ever publish a pick with price lower than 1.80... always opting for higher/riskier hcap instead)
Model +value: -
Significant team news: Nantes welcome back fwd Simon and fb Merlin to the squad, they are in contention for first 11; Olympiakos are without injured midfielders M'Villa and A.Camara and suspended cb Ba, who are all first team regulars; plus planned fist choice rb Vrsaljko is still out inj, though rb Pipa Avilla is fine, and he has started regularly since early Aug.. from last season's successful UEL squad, they have lost cf Tiquinho, fwd/wng Onyekuru, cm M.Camara and their squad seems to be weaker than last season
Note: Experience is the one thing that Olympiakos has as clear advantage in this game; their experience in playing in Europe is huge as they are regular participants in either CL or EL, unlike Nantes. However, the Greek champs are having a difficult summer with some below-par performances and failure in UECL qualifiers, in which they were eliminated early by Maccabi Haifa, despite a clear favorite tag; and then they struggled in UEL qualifiers against Slovan Bratislava and Apollon, teams they should normally beat comfortably over two legs, needing a penalty shootout against both to progress. Zero clean sheets for Oly in 6 qualif.games this summer, which is really poor considering the level of opposition. They managed to sign am/fw Pep Biel from FC Copenhagen at the end of Aug, and he should be a big signing for them, but otherwise there is an overwhelming feeling that this is an aging squad that needs to be refreshed with young talents more aggressively. We don't see them as better team than Nantes at this moment, and quite like the hosts at -1/4 here, although would not be surprised if this price improved tomorrow (dnb >180 would make sense). Still, happy to post this now and prevent overthinking tomorrow in case price moves in Oly favor. Nantes have played well in last few weeks in Ligue 1, completely outplayed both Toulouse (win) and Strasbourg (draw); even in 3-0 defeat against PSG on Sat they were fine, early red card really killed them, of course, but their heads didn't drop, they kept fighting and fired 10 shots in the end, 6 from inside the box - when you consider they were down to 10 men from min 25' against mighty PSG, that's not bad at all. Europa League is a big occasion for them and they are expected to field a strong team here, close to best poss 11, and it's Nantes at 44% to win for us... although admittedly Nantes are better/easier to be backed at plus hcaps rather than minus hcaps due to their style of play; but with half stake back in case of a draw this is good price for poss win.

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Lazio vs Feyenoord

Fifth in Serie A last year, Lazio directly booked its ticket for the Europa League group stage this season. On the national scene, the Biancocelesti now occupy 8th place in the standings with eight points taken in five games. Convincing for their debut, they did not lose any of their first four games, two wins and two draws, including a convincing success against Inter 3-1. On the other hand, Lazio suffered their first hitch of the season last weekend when they lost in front of their tifosi against Napoli 1-2. However, the hosts seek improvement and first points on the international stage this season. The Lazio boss Maurizio Sarri will be grateful not to have any fitness worries whatsoever before this clash, owing to a completely healthy squad to pick from.

Feyenoord stood out last season by reaching the final of the Europa League Conference, beaten by Roma. In the league, the Rotterdam-based team finished 3rd in the standings and directly validated their ticket to the group stage. This season, the teammates of former Bordeaux player Javairo Dilrosun have made a good impression so far. Still undefeated with four wins and one draw, they are 2nd in the Eredivisie and are two small points behind Ajax. Last weekend, Feyenoord won on the lawn of the Go Ahead Eagles 3-4, thus aligning the 3rd success in a row. Danilo started the new season very well, and the fans adore the Brazilian. The visitors want to continue with good performances and return home undefeated.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

We should see an entertaining clash in which both teams have a fair chance of winning. Nevertheless, the hosts are slight favorites, and we think they will meet expectations and book a victory on Thursday evening.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games this season, and this one shouldn’t be much different. We don’t think either team will keep its net intact, and the crowd should enjoy an exciting game.  

Lazio to Win @ 2.00

BTTS Yes @ 1.60

Correct score 2:1 @ 8.50

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Manchester United vs Real Sociedad

Manchester United is in top form ahead of their home game against Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League in Group E. The Red  Devils are coming from a morale-boosting 3-1 win over Arsenal in the Premier League, which was their fourth win on the bounce. They will be looking to extend this run, and playing at home favors them. Although they had a terrible start in the domestic campaign, Erik ten Hag’s lads bounced back and returned to the top-four race. Regarding the selection issues, Anthony Martial (Achilles Irritation) and Victor Lindelöf (Unknown Injury) won’t be able to feature for Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag.

Real Sociedad battled from a goal down to draw 1-1 with Atletico Madrid in their last game. New signing Umar Sadiq scored their equalizer and will want to carry the same impact to this game as he is billed as the replacement for Alexander Isak, who left for Newcastle United. The visitors have scored in all their four matches so far this season, but they haven’t managed more than a goal in any of the matches. Real Sociedad boss Imanol Alguacil has to choose a team with limited availability. Carlos Fernández (Hamstring Injury), Robin Le Normand (Metatarsal Fracture), Martín Merquelanz (Knee Injury) and Mikel Oyarzabal (Cruciate Ligament Rupture) are names that won’t be on the team sheet.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

The hosts are full of confidence, and they want to continue their winning streak. Although Real Sociedad is a tricky opponent, we believe all three points will remain at Old Trafford.

Goals Market Prediction

These two sides faced each other four times in the past nine years, and just one game went over a 2.5 margin. The BTTS No bet cashed on all four occasions, and we think the tradition will continue on Thursday evening. 

Manchester United to Win @ 1.70

BTTS No @ 2.00

Correct score 2:0 @ 8.50

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