Racing Chat - Saturday 13th August

[The Equaliser]

30 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I want to go to the meetings you go to !

Yes, I have to remember to take the 100mg Viagra pills with me these days

Edited August 13, 2022 by The Equaliser

[Bang on]

A few interesting runners that are down in weight and running well below their last winning weight within the last year.

3.25 Ripon - Garden Oasis  3/1 (8lbs below)  - 

4.50 Perth - Lord Condi  3/1 (12lbs below)

6.10 M.Rasen - Captain Cobajay  6/1 (9lbs below)

7.20 Wolv - Global Warning  7/1  ( 10lbs below)

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the St Wilfrid handicap (Ripon 2.50)

Top 5 in weights, 0 from 36

Claimers, 0 from 30

1st last time, 3 from 21, AE 2.17

This leaves SNASH, AL SIMMO and INTRINSIC BOND

Age = 5, 5 from 36, AE 2.19

This removes SNASH

Drawn 1 to 7, 1 from 51

This leaves AL SIMMO at 11/1, 5 places

[The Equaliser]

11 minutes ago, Bang on said:

A few interesting runners that are down in weight and running well below their last winning weight within the last year.

3.25 Ripon - Garden Oasis  3/1 (8lbs below)  - 

4.50 Perth - Lord Condi  3/1 (12lbs below)

6.10 M.Rasen - Captain Cobajay  6/1 (9lbs below)

7.20 Wolv - Global Warning  7/1  ( 10lbs below)

Thanks for this.  My bet on Wen moon didn't get matched, thankfully so I'll put 1 pt win on Garden Oasis at 3/1 with Bet 365

Good luck with this and your other selections today

[alexcaruso808]

On 8/12/2022 at 7:59 AM, The Brigadier said:

PRINCE OF PILLO 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor

 

Thank you for this tip.  I'm going to splash out and have a Chinese this evening to celebrate....  I might even have a white chocolate Magnum for dessert!!  ?

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Given what i have been saying about the 3yolds i am interested to see how the 120 newbury pans out

6x 3yo 2x 4yo is there value in the forecast is one question, does the 7/1 i took on general lee look good value is another.

well close i spose all the better fancied 3yo olds behind and a stinker in front l?

odds on 3yo beaten in the 210 by older horse

[Zilzalian]

Grumpy old b'stard time again Rozilia, 5 horse race Jesus H Christ James Doyle what are you doing? your supposed to be a top jockey that was shocking.

[The Scientist]

I aI am a proven terrible tipster who relies on form plus eye. I hastily bet Emoerors and Misty but idf there is a better lookrer than the fav on yjos hot day ill be surptlrid Blackriod

 

[Bronxie]

6 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

2.50 Ripon

Summerghand  ran a stinker llto and is much better than that  and  looks weighted to win very soon however @ around 11/2 for this  not a backable bet for me today

Last years  winner and  another one of the older  brigade  Justanotherbottle will be popular but much to high in the weights for me.

However  i see last  years 4th  INTRINSIC BOND 12/1 to have a top e/w shout  coming of a win at 5f  lto but yet still 6lb lower than in this last year  has not won o 6f yet but that does not put me off   & should go very  well here again.

Have had a few shillings e/w on one  that is   10lb out of the handicap  but has a 7lb claimer on top  has  some could form and  a very big price  MARKS CHOICE 25/1.

GOOD LUCK ALL

1st and 3rd - very well played! 

[richard-westwood]

On 8/12/2022 at 10:42 AM, richard-westwood said:

Can't even comment on racing at moment ....15 turn up for gt st wilfred ...and consolation race which woukd normally be full has not enough to run ....?? 

Anyway it's been quiet lately so time to chase a big win and get the coffers filled ...?

Great st wilfred 

Blackrod  9.0 5.7 

Emperor spirit  8.8  14.0 

Intrinsic bond  8.5 16.0 

Hyperfocus   8.1  

Not many races of interest so I'll go 10pt wins top 3 with decent prices betfair ....hope a biggy wins ? ?...

Couldn't have asked for better...the outsider wins ....guaranteed to finish on +110.00 regardless of other race results.... can relax and enjoy now 

[richard-westwood]

6 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

2.50 Ripon

Summerghand  ran a stinker llto and is much better than that  and  looks weighted to win very soon however @ around 11/2 for this  not a backable bet for me today

Last years  winner and  another one of the older  brigade  Justanotherbottle will be popular but much to high in the weights for me.

However  i see last  years 4th  INTRINSIC BOND 12/1 to have a top e/w shout  coming of a win at 5f  lto but yet still 6lb lower than in this last year  has not won o 6f yet but that does not put me off   & should go very  well here again.

Have had a few shillings e/w on one  that is   10lb out of the handicap  but has a 7lb claimer on top  has  some could form and  a very big price  MARKS CHOICE 25/1.

GOOD LUCK ALL

 

Another big price winner .....he was in my top 3 today ???

[Tedthewolf]

6 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

2.50 Ripon

Summerghand  ran a stinker llto and is much better than that  and  looks weighted to win very soon however @ around 11/2 for this  not a backable bet for me today

Last years  winner and  another one of the older  brigade  Justanotherbottle will be popular but much to high in the weights for me.

However  i see last  years 4th  INTRINSIC BOND 12/1 to have a top e/w shout  coming of a win at 5f  lto but yet still 6lb lower than in this last year  has not won o 6f yet but that does not put me off   & should go very  well here again.

Have had a few shillings e/w on one  that is   10lb out of the handicap  but has a 7lb claimer on top  has  some could form and  a very big price  MARKS CHOICE 25/1.

GOOD LUCK ALL

 

Its Beer o'clock boys?

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Trends for the St Wilfrid handicap (Ripon 2.50)

Top 5 in weights, 0 from 36

Claimers, 0 from 30

1st last time, 3 from 21, AE 2.17

This leaves SNASH, AL SIMMO and INTRINSIC BOND

Age = 5, 5 from 36, AE 2.19

This removes SNASH

Drawn 1 to 7, 1 from 51

This leaves AL SIMMO at 11/1, 5 places

Perhaps I should use the same tactics as @richard-westwoodand back the top 3

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Perhaps I should use the same tactics as @richard-westwoodand back the top 3

Haha, that'll be the day.  However, I think that it must be OK to back more than one horse in a race, and treat it all as one bet, as long as there is sufficient profit to be made if any of the selections win

[black rabbit]

28 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Its Beer o'clock boys?

well done ted

[alexcaruso808]

23 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Course	Time	Selection	Odds / Bet Type	Result
Newbury	13:20	Definite	11/4 - win
Newbury	15:35	Chindit	9/2 - win

 

Again, as always, good luck!

 

 

Course	Time	Selection	Odds / Bet Type	Result
Newbury	13:20	Definite	11/4 - win	6th
Newbury	15:35	Chindit	9/2 - win	8th

 

Unfortunately my own picks were horrendous today.  

[MCLARKE]

48 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Haha, that'll be the day.  However, I think that it must be OK to back more than one horse in a race, and treat it all as one bet, as long as there is sufficient profit to be made if any of the selections win

Indeed ! Having said that I do bet more than 1 horse in races where there are extra places available. I don't really enjoy watching them though, it's like trying to watch 4 football matches at the same time.

[black rabbit]

28 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

well done ted

thought i'd share this with you ted / the landlord in my local proudly declared to few of us punters last evening that he'd developed betting system,

having listened to his description of how it operates i quickly deduced that it was "shite" and completly without any logic, being the shrewd punter

that i am /  i offered to lay all the bet's that he and few bar punters were going to make on the selections from the little bank they had put together

{ this is like shelling pea's says i / easy beer money }  well so far today they had winners at 14/1, 10/1, 7/2, 14/1,9/1, amoung the selections

and still got the evening meetings to go  ? ??    i will stick to punting them from now on  ?

[The Equaliser]

20 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

thought i'd share this with you ted / the landlord in my local proudly declared to few of us punters last evening that he'd developed betting system,

having listened to his description of how it operates i quickly deduced that it was "shite" and completly without any logic, being the shrewd punter

that i am /  i offered to lay all the bet's that he and few bar punters were going to make on the selections from the little bank they had put together

{ this is like shelling pea's says i / easy beer money }  well so far today they had winners at 14/1, 10/1, 7/2, 14/1,9/1, amoung the selections

and still got the evening meetings to go  ? ??    i will stick to punting them from now on  ?

Can you afford to go back to the pub and payout?

Please share with us all the betting system?

[Tedthewolf]

15 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

thought i'd share this with you ted / the landlord in my local proudly declared to few of us punters last evening that he'd developed betting system,

having listened to his description of how it operates i quickly deduced that it was "shite" and completly without any logic, being the shrewd punter

that i am /  i offered to lay all the bet's that he and few bar punters were going to make on the selections from the little bank they had put together

{ this is like shelling pea's says i / easy beer money }  well so far today they had winners at 14/1, 10/1, 7/2, 14/1,9/1, amoung the selections

and still got the evening meetings to go  ? ??    i will stick to punting them from now on  ?

Oh dear that's poo

The local whore  house won't be seeing you this week then..... but  they could well be laying the landlord and his merry punters!

Yeah stick to  betting not laying.

P.S Get the landlord to put his tips up  here next sat.

 

[black rabbit]

2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Can you afford to go back to the pub and payout?

Please share with us all the betting system?

yeah its only peanuts really / just amusing how something illogical can trow up winners / let me assure you any long term punting

following the " dog and duck"s system " would send you skint

[black rabbit]

6 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Oh dear that's poo

The local whore  house won't be seeing you this week then..... but  they could well be laying the landlord and his merry punters!

Yeah stick to  betting not laying.

P.S Get the landlord to put his tips up  here next sat.

 

ted  if they have any more winners tonight  i could end up working in there { the whore house that is } ?

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, black rabbit said:

ted  if they have any more winners tonight  i could end up working in there { the whore house that is } ?

Well word on the street says your good for a lay  so you should do well mate?

[black rabbit]

3 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Well word on the street says your good for a lay  so you should do well mate?

?

[Tedthewolf]

I have to say some great winner put up in here today

Really enjoy Saturday racing forum days.

I feel a challenge coming on for next sat!

The dog & duck system V the Punters lounge  selected  tipsters.

 

[Tedthewolf]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Probably spent too much but here goes:

1.40 Rip New Definition 11/4

2.50 Rip Black Rod 9/2

3.258 Rip Pisanello 7/2

3.35 Nb Pogo 3/1

6 x 0.5 win dble, 4 x 0.5 win trbles and 1 0.5 win 4 fold = 5.5 = poss return of 415.13

Singles:

2.41 Don Object 0.6 at 6/1

3.00 Nb Secret Film 0.6 win at 13/2

3.35 Nb Pogo 1 pt win at 4.1, Dunai Poet 0.6 win at 8/1 and Wings Of War 0.3 win at 16/1

1.40 Rip Wen Moon 1 pt win at 4.1 (um 3.8)

2.50 Rip Black Rod 1 pt win at 5.6, Summerghand 0.5 at 5/1, Emperor Spirit 0.6 at 15/2 and Intrinsic Bond 0.6 at 14/1

2.35 Perth Mortloch 1 pt win at 6.2

4.15 Perth Wolf Prince 0.6 at 5/1 and Britzka 0.6 win at 11/2

Total stakes = 14.50

This should keep me amused for the afternoon

Good luck everyone

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

No winners in my multiple from what looked to be very good fancies.  Luckily I got 3 winners, kicking myself for not having 0.6 pts on @TheBrigadier 's Documenting, don't know how I missed it.  @Bang on' s winner together with @richard-westwood / @Tedthewolf combi tip allowed me to make a small 2.40 profit on the day.  Many thanks to them.  My MTD -30.03 & YTD  -232.21

Some class4 and above racing tomorrow but lots of short priced favourites which means I either have to oppose them or leave the race(s) alone.  The 3.53 at Southwell looks interesting.  Badri looks to good to be true at 7/2 whilst Society Lion who beat it at Wolves is at 12/1 although being 5lbs better off and 2.75 lengths to the good.  I know that Society Lion ran a stinker on turf LTO but hopefully back on the AW it should run better ?

 

May be worth saving your doe for York this week looks decent racing.

 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Tedthewolf

[black rabbit]

14 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

I have to say some great winner put up in here today

Really enjoy Saturday racing forum days.

I feel a challenge coming on for next sat!

The dog & duck system V the Punters lounge  selected  tipsters.

 

hi ted/ the  get skint quick "dog and duck" systems selections for sunday 14th/  

Southwell - in race order- hoots toots-naomis charm-kingwell-gannon glory-lady madonna-scale force-natchz trace

chelmsford- only the brave -claritudo-blue collar lass-origintrial-just percy-desert dream-carmela sopano

pontefract- camila vargas - my little queens- princess shabnam- gorak-maggies delight-agent sonya- cottage lane

boosted by yesterdays success they had a punt in all races today no less -  perhaps i"ll get my sheckles back today ?

by laying them again

Edited August 14, 2022 by black rabbit

[Tedthewolf]

Won't back or lay  but will follow  to see how it holds up.

Thank you for posting.

P.S  i wanna go to the  dog & duck for a pint lol.

 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Tedthewolf

[black rabbit]

25 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Won't back or lay  but will follow  to see how it holds up.

Thank you for posting.

P.S  i wanna go to the  dog & duck for a pint lol.

 

they have replaced the N/R in the first at chelmsford with Amalfi Salsa   i have layed them all again

[The Brigadier]

On 8/12/2022 at 7:59 AM, The Brigadier said:

Newbury 1.20

Eight go to post for this 10F class 4 handicap where William Haggas saddles the likely favourite in Frantanck. He was disappointing on his handicap debut at Sandown last month when last of four beaten just under 10L in a race where the 3rd has won since. The excuse from the stable representative at the time was that the colt was unsuited by the slower pace. Hopefully in a bigger field today he can show that he’s better than that and take this contest. Ralph Beckett’s Definite may have some improvement to come and should also be thereabouts.

 

FRANTANCK 1 point win @ 9/4 Coral

 

Ripon 1.40

The 5F Hornblower Stakes has a great tradition and is for two year olds who have not won a class 1 contest. Only five go to post with the most likely winner being James Tate’s New Definition who’s run well on all five starts this season including last time when going down by a neck to Looking For Lynda at Musselburgh. He has been beaten twice at odds on mind so is a bit vulnerable to an improver. There’s two of them in this race in Ben Haslam’s Wen Moon, a winner over course and distance a month ago although the five that he beat that day have all been beaten since. Keith Dagleish’s Prince Of Pillo won a fifteen runner novice stakes on his debut at Ayr a month ago with the 5th that day winning a decent nursery at Goodwood since. Not a race I have a strong opinion on but I’ll play him to small stakes.

 

PRINCE OF PILLO 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor

 

Newbury 1.55

This looks an excellent opportunity for the Charlie Appleby trained Victory Dance to get back to winning ways. A 700,000 guineas foal by Dubawi he made a winning debut at Newmarket in June getting up on the line under an inspired ride from Mikel Barzalona. Upped in grade he probably bumped into a smart opponent in the Brain Meehan trained Isaac Shelby in the group 2 Superlative Stakes back on the July course three weeks later. He should be more than capable of beating his four rivals today including the promising Candle Of Hope who can chase him home. He’s too short to back so it’ll be a sit back and enjoy spectacle.

 

Newmarket 2.10

A 1m 6F class 2 handicap is up next with a warm favourite in the Gosden’s Atlantis who will be a tough nut to crack under Frankie Dettori. The grey daughter of Sea The Stars broke her duck on her handicap debut when an easy 4 1/2L winner at Doncaster. She’s stepping up 2F here with a 9lb rise in the handicap and can beat her four rivals none of whom really appeal.

 

ATLANTIS 2 points win @ 6/5 William Hill

 

Newbury 2.30

A very disappointing turnout of only five go to post for the group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes. The only three year old in the race is the Freddie and Martyn Meade trained Zechariah who was runner up in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot prior to a credible 3 3/4L 3rd in the Bahrain Trophy to the useful Deauville Legend. A reproduction of that effort may well be good enough to take this against his elders. The best of whom may well be Ismail Mohammed’s Away He Goes. Not a great punting heat but a small win stake on Zechariah may pay dividends.

 

ZECHARIAH 1 point win @7/4 William Hill

 

Ripon 2.50

The 6F Great St Wilfrid Handicap has attracted a rather disappointing turnout of only 15 in a race where the maximum is 20 and there were 35 at the 5 day stage. This really is a ‘draw’ race in that the last six winners have been drawn high in stalls 19, 17, 15, 19, 10 & 13 with all six of those winners making all on the stands side running rail. Last years winner and natural front runner Justanotherbottle is 13lb higher this time around but is unbeaten in three starts at the Yorkshire track and from stall 10 can be competitive especially if his jockey Kevin Stott can get over to the rail. Favourite Blackrod is having his first run for Ed Bethell having left Michael Dodds and with group one entries is an exciting prospect who was 7th in the Wokingham last time. He’s drawn stall one though and at around 4/1 and drawn out in the middle/far side can be taken on here. My main fancy though is top weight Misty Grey trained by Tom Dascombe. He won on his only start here as a two year old when quickly bagging the rail and winning easily by 7L. He arrives here following a win in a decent class 2 handicap at Chelmsford (Emperor Spirit badly drawn and well beaten)and most importantly has drawn stall 15. He doesn’t have to lead but jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin will be mad not to get an early position on the rail and make the most of that advantage. He’s my main selection but I can’t resist a small each way saver on last years victor Justanotherbottle.

 

MISTY GREY 2 points each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE @ 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5 12345

 

Newbury 3.00

A 7F class 2 handicap is up next with just the seven runners. Some firms are paying three places here so if may well pay to back Kevin Frost’s Documenting who although the oldest by far in the contest has run well all season including last time out when a fine 5th to Fresh in the Ascot International Handicap. He looks overpriced at around the 12/1 mark and should run his race under Jack Mitchell. The only three year old in the contest is the Richard Hannon runner Gisburn who has a good record here having won two of his three starts at the Berkshire track. He should run well but a better value bet to my eyes is Documenting.

 

DOCUMENTING 1 point each way 14/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Newmarket 3.18

The 6F grey horse handicap has only attracted seven runners this year and a right motley crew they are. The in form Come On Girl trained by Mick Appleby has won two of her last three starts but they were on the all weather whilst top weight Mister Bluebird represents Heather Main. I’ll take a chance again each way with the firms paying three places on the veteran Wentworth Falls trained by Geoffrey Harker who is back on a winning mark and ran second in this unique race last year from a 3lb higher handicap mark. Franny Norton steps in for the ride.

 

WENTWORTH FALLS 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Newbury 3.35

A fair field considering the lightning fast ground of ten go to post for the feature race of the day at Newbury - the group 2 Hungerford Stakes. The best in at the weights officially is Charlie Hills’ consistent Pogo who looks the one they all have to beat who followed a group 3 win at Newmarket with an excellent 1/2L third to Sandrine in the group 2 Lennox Stakes. Chindit has to shoulder a 3lb penalty today but is most certainly not out of it whilst this is the optimum trip for Chris Wall’s stable star Double Or Bubble. Of the three three year olds the best may turn out to be the Roger Varian trained Tiber Flow although he does look short enough in the betting considering on official ratings he has 8lb to find with the selection Pogo.

 

POGO 2 points win @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

 

Tidy profit of 13.15 points with three winners at 14/1, 3/1 and 7/4.