Racing Chat - Tuesday 9th August.

[kensland]

Nottingham. 

Single 

3.15. Rampoldi Plan.  3/1..... unpl.        Last. 

Good luck all. 

Edited August 9, 2022 by kensland

[alexcaruso808]

Just one for me today:

Lingfield - 3.30 - Outside World - 10/1

Looks like a good bet, Charlie & Mark Johnston have sent the horse 200+ miles for this race and William Buick is the jockey.  They had quite a few winners yesterday, again horses that had travelled quite a distance.  

[black rabbit]

Arthurs victory     6 30 CHF   1/10 pt win    30/1 

 

 

 

P/L    + 148 pts

[The Equaliser]

2.45 Nott.  Not much to go on.  The horses that have raced we are told have shown nothing of great strength.  Alaskan Point was available at 7/2 last night and is now showing at the best price of 9/4.  Hence, it would appear that of the raced horses this is the one expected to do best.  Fox Island is clear top-rated with RPRP and Timeform 76 and 75p respectively.  I wouldn’t mind knowing whether anyone thinks that these ratings represent poor strength for a class 4, mile, 2-year-old event so as to support the opening comments.  Of the un-raced horses, it looks like the market doesn’t like Mark Johnstone’s Struth.  It was quoted as 7/2 last night and you can get 11/1 now.  I don’t know if it matters if Mark Johnston’s horses drift in the betting.  Of Richard Hannon’s runners, Fox Island looks to be the main chance. This was 3/1 last night and is now still second in the betting at 4/1.  His other runner Red Fort is the outsider at 12/1.

Assuming that there is no strength of depth in the runners that have already raced I am going to put a 1 pt win on The Goat at 8.4.  The horse is related to a very smart miler Sloan Avenue.  Andrew Balding is 10/60 with his 2-year-olds this season so this one looks to be just as a worthwhile bet as anything else.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, I got my answer didn’t I!  Still back Mark Johnston even if his horse(s) drift in the market.  The pundits were right about there not being much strength in the market for the already raced horses.

6.50 Carl Water Of Leith looks like the one they all have to beat.  However, the horse is not straightforward, had to be walked to post last time.  It is quite often slow away and it has a 10lbs penalty to carry this time.  I had a 1 pt win on Ventura Flame at 9.4 last night when the bookies were offering at 9/2.  It is now 5^th in the betting 8/1 – 17/2.  It is a C&D winner and has been running well.  Let’s hope that it gets away from Water Of Leith.  @Gary66 has napped Ginger Jam and although I can’t see why it should win I will have 0.15 pts on it at 25/1 with Bet365

7.25 Carl.  This looks like a trappy event.  Trumble has been off for 7 months.  Detective is slow and will need to make up loads of ground and Carnival Zain is up another 7 lbs after a 7 furlongs win.  I will place 1 pt to win on Under Fox at 6.6.  This is a very consistent horse and is only 1lb higher than last time.  Let’s hope that the visor works.

Total stakes today = 3.15 points

Nothing strong enough to nap today for me

Edited August 9, 2022 by The Equaliser

[alexcaruso808]

3 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Just one for me today:

Lingfield - 3.30 - Outside World - 10/1

Looks like a good bet, Charlie & Mark Johnston have sent the horse 200+ miles for this race and William Buick is the jockey.  They had quite a few winners yesterday, again horses that had travelled quite a distance.  

Oh dear, came in 6th!  

[calva decoy]

Wonder if they'll be a last minute postponement of racing with the upcoming heatwave down south ?

[Zilzalian]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

2.45 Nott.  Not much to go on.  The horses that have raced we are told have shown nothing of great strength.  Alaskan Point was available at 7/2 last night and is now showing at the best price of 9/4.  Hence, it would appear that of the raced horses this is the one expected to do best.  Fox Island is clear top-rated with RPRP and Timeform 76 and 75p respectively.  I wouldn’t mind knowing whether anyone thinks that these ratings represent poor strength for a class 4, mile, 2-year-old event so as to support the opening comments.  Of the un-raced horses, it looks like the market doesn’t like Mark Johnstone’s Struth.  It was quoted as 7/2 last night and you can get 11/1 now.  I don’t know if it matters if Mark Johnston’s horses drift in the betting.  Of Richard Hannon’s runners, Fox Island looks to be the main chance. This was 3/1 last night and is now still second in the betting at 4/1.  His other runner Red Fort is the outsider at 12/1.

Assuming that there is no strength of depth in the runners that have already raced I am going to put a 1 pt win on The Goat at 8.4.  The horse is related to a very smart miler Sloan Avenue.  Andrew Balding is 10/60 with his 2-year-olds this season so this one looks to be just as a worthwhile bet as anything else.

You have to be aware of the tissue in relation to 2yolds, that is the starting point for the bookies early pricings, its what they "expect" the market to be and if you analyse the tissue it usually favours the hierarchy of trainers. That is why in my opinion it is worth ignoring. By/from around 10am the following day the indications tend to appear. I ignore those too. Your Balding angle was correct on recent numbers (i backed it at 7/1) but which horse in your comment won? Struth 13/2 so the 11/1 turned out good value (for a Johnson horse) if you ignored the "noise". You wouldn't have found that winner looking at market/bookies "expectations" it was the punters that decided that one. Your over dependance on published information which is available to everyone is probably one of your weak points. Nick Mordin often said that you have to find information/data that very few punters use in order to be a successful punter. In other words you can't win with/using the freely available data, If you could then the bookies wouldnt exist they would be bankrupt.

[The Equaliser]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

You have to be aware of the tissue in relation to 2yolds, that is the starting point for the bookies early pricings, its what they "expect" the market to be and if you analyse the tissue it usually favours the hierarchy of trainers. That is why in my opinion it is worth ignoring. By/from around 10am the following day the indications tend to appear. I ignore those too. Your Balding angle was correct on recent numbers (i backed it at 7/1) but which horse in your comment won? Struth 13/2 so the 11/1 turned out good value (for a Johnson horse) if you ignored the "noise". You wouldn't have found that winner looking at market/bookies "expectations" it was the punters that decided that one. Your over dependance on published information which is available to everyone is probably one of your weak points. Nick Mordin often said that you have to find information/data that very few punters use in order to be a successful punter. In other words you can't win with/using the freely available data, If you could then the bookies wouldnt exist they would be bankrupt.

Well OK but it was TImeform on the ATR website that tipped up Struth.  So what do you say to that? I should have had at least 0.30 points on it.  We live and learn ?

[Gary66]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

2.45 Nott.  Not much to go on.  The horses that have raced we are told have shown nothing of great strength.  Alaskan Point was available at 7/2 last night and is now showing at the best price of 9/4.  Hence, it would appear that of the raced horses this is the one expected to do best.  Fox Island is clear top-rated with RPRP and Timeform 76 and 75p respectively.  I wouldn’t mind knowing whether anyone thinks that these ratings represent poor strength for a class 4, mile, 2-year-old event so as to support the opening comments.  Of the un-raced horses, it looks like the market doesn’t like Mark Johnstone’s Struth.  It was quoted as 7/2 last night and you can get 11/1 now.  I don’t know if it matters if Mark Johnston’s horses drift in the betting.  Of Richard Hannon’s runners, Fox Island looks to be the main chance. This was 3/1 last night and is now still second in the betting at 4/1.  His other runner Red Fort is the outsider at 12/1.

Assuming that there is no strength of depth in the runners that have already raced I am going to put a 1 pt win on The Goat at 8.4.  The horse is related to a very smart miler Sloan Avenue.  Andrew Balding is 10/60 with his 2-year-olds this season so this one looks to be just as a worthwhile bet as anything else.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, I got my answer didn’t I!  Still back Mark Johnston even if his horse(s) drift in the market.  The pundits were right about there not being much strength in the market for the already raced horses.

 

6.50 Carl Water Of Leith looks like the one they all have to beat.  However, the horse is not straightforward, had to be walked to post last time.  It is quite often slow away and it has a 10lbs penalty to carry this time.  I had a 1 pt win on Ventura Flame at 9.4 last night when the bookies were offering at 9/2.  It is now 5^th in the betting 8/1 – 17/2.  It is a C&D winner and has been running well.  Let’s hope that it gets away from Water Of Leith.  @Gary66 has napped Ginger Jam and although I can’t see why it should win I will have 0.15 pts on it at 25/1 with Bet365

 

7.25 Carl.  This looks like a trappy event.  Trumble has been off for 7 months.  Detective is slow and will need to make up loads of ground and Carnival Zain is up another 7 lbs after a 7 furlongs win.  I will place 1 pt to win on Under Fox at 6.6.  This is a very consistent horse and is only 1lb higher than last time.  Let’s hope that the visor works.

 

Total stakes today = 3.15 points

 

Nothing strong enough to nap today for me

 

Ginger jam seems to perform. Better on stiff tracks ie Beverley ponty although wins have come at bath also has a win on firm ground also close to a winning mark at the odds I thought worth a go although napped to win in competition I have back with 365 22/1 each way extra 4 places best of luck to all gaz

[Zilzalian]

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well OK but it was TImeform on the ATR website that tipped up Struth.  So what do you say to that? I should have had at least 0.30 points on it.  We live and learn ?

Someone somewhere will have tipped most winners, Thats what i say to that. How many losers did timeform tip? you might want to read my comment again and take any positive information from it that maybe useful for you going forward instead of trying to slap me with a negative. which is probably another one of your weak points.

[Gary66]

17 minutes ago, Gary66 said:

Ginger jam seems to perform. Better on stiff tracks ie Beverley ponty although wins have come at bath also has a win on firm ground also close to a winning mark at the odds I thought worth a go although napped to win in competition I have back with 365 22/1 each way extra 4 places best of luck to all gaz

Boom ?

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Someone somewhere will have tipped most winners, Thats what i say to that. How many losers did timeform tip? you might want to read my comment again and take any positive information from it that maybe useful for you going forward instead of trying to slap me with a negative. which is probably another one of your weak points.

Thou does protest too much methinks

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Gary66 said:

Boom ?

Many thanks, Gaz.  My 0.15 pts flyer on your selection gave me a 0.75 profit on the day.  It pays to check out the Naps selections each day.  Dare I say that this is freely available published information? ?

[Gary66]

Great stuff be lucky always

[ipswich45]

interesting Stewards note on Lingfield today
 

Fixture Note

An enquiry was held following a report from the Equine Welfare Integrity Officer that a Sky cameraman had attempted to gain entry to the Stables. The Equine Welfare Integrity Officer, Racecourse Veterinary Surgeon, the Clerk of the Course and the Sky cameraman were interviewed. Their comments were noted, and a report was forwarded to the Head Office of the British Horseracing Authority for further consideration.
 

[The Equaliser]

22 minutes ago, ipswich45 said:

interesting Stewards note on Lingfield today
 

Fixture Note

An enquiry was held following a report from the Equine Welfare Integrity Officer that a Sky cameraman had attempted to gain entry to the Stables. The Equine Welfare Integrity Officer, Racecourse Veterinary Surgeon, the Clerk of the Course and the Sky cameraman were interviewed. Their comments were noted, and a report was forwarded to the Head Office of the British Horseracing Authority for further consideration.
 

The man who fell to earth. eh.