ODDS ON SELECTIONS TRIAL

[Zilzalian]

On 8/19/2022 at 9:38 AM, Zilzalian said:

I wouldn't mind betting that your experiment if on French racing (bet365) would come out well on top of the UK racing. they seem very lax to me in their pricing up of french races.

great example of what i was saying re french racing Sea la rosa 3/2 last night won at 4/7

[MCLARKE]

No easy way for me to find these so not something I will be able to look at.

[MCLARKE]

On 8/15/2022 at 7:43 PM, MCLARKE said:

Still showing a big loss, 4 winners from 9, -4.42 at SP, -3.23 at early price.

Encouragingly all 4 winners have beaten SP.

Today's selection, Presentandcounting in the 5.10 at Bangor had an early price of 4/6 and a SP of 1/10. That is an edge of 52%.

A bit of an improvement with 7 winners from the last 9 selections with a LSP of 0.56 at SP but more importantly 1.80 at BOG.

Overall 8 winners from 14 selections with LSP of -3.32 at SP (-24% ROI) and -1.75 at BOG (-13% ROI).

There should have been 2 selections today but I missed the early price so haven't included them. They both won (5/6 into 4/7 and  8/13 into 2/11). 

There is a selection tomorrow, Night Battle at 1/14. However it is available at 1/8 elsewhere so it does not seem logical to take the 1/14.

[MCLARKE]

It is fair to say that this is not going well !

Since the last update there has been just 1 winner (at 1/50) from 6 runners, capped by today's selection, Broadspear, losing at 1/16.

I could argue that this was still a value bet as I backed it at 1/7 but that argument is looking a bit lame at the moment.

Overall 9 winners from 20 selections with LSP of -8.30 (-41% ROI) and -6.71 at BOG (-34% ROI).

Things can only get better.

[harry_rag]

Have you been recording the results for every odds on shot this month or just the one a day you're backing? If the latter I suppose one month's results won't really confirm anything win or lose.

Are you going to carry on with this for a while yet?

[MCLARKE]

Just the one's I've been backing (only to small stakes).

I will keep this going for at least a year.

I may start a parallel system where I incorporate some type of form analysis. 

Any suggestions of a simple factor to use would be welcome.

[MCLARKE]

On 8/30/2022 at 4:09 PM, MCLARKE said:

Things can only get better.

Maybe not !

6 losers in a row now.

[harry_rag]

9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Maybe not !

6 losers in a row now.

If you can't beat them by backing them, try laying! 

I've just been looking at my data for touchdown scorers in last season's Superbowl. It turns out that backing every odds on shot (in my data sample of 818 players) would have been profitable though an ROI of 3.5% from 88 selections is hardly conclusive. Might be where I focus for my weekly interest though; seeing if I can get a better price on the exchange.

[MCLARKE]

33 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

If you can't beat them by backing them, try laying!

That would be admitting defeat !

I'm 2-0 down after 10 minutes but there's plenty of time to turn it around.

Ask any Sheff Wed fan about the 1966 FA cup final.

[black rabbit]

44 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

If you can't beat them by backing them, try laying! 

I've just been looking at my data for touchdown scorers in last season's Superbowl. It turns out that backing every odds on shot (in my data sample of 818 players) would have been profitable though an ROI of 3.5% from 88 selections is hardly conclusive. Might be where I focus for my weekly interest though; seeing if I can get a better price on the exchange.

you remember my comment about punting "short priced horses"  harry ?  ?

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

you remember my comment about punting "short priced horses"  harry ?

But do you have any facts to back it up ?

[MCLARKE]

You have to be quick sometimes. Bold act tomorrow opened at 4/5 but the price only lasted 3 minutes.

Not sure how you would have got that price.

[black rabbit]

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

But do you have any facts to back it up ?

 

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

But do you have any facts to back it up ?

well when theres the facts to prove otherwise i suppose  but seriously a lifetime in the game

leads me to believe you cant get infront of the bookies punting short price horses but thets my

opinion and to each his own  and good luck to them

[MCLARKE]

That's the whole point of this exercise.

If at the end of a year I have made a loss then I'll hold my hands up and agree that you can't make profits from odds on shots.

[Bang on]

#BettingPeople Interview HARRY FINDLAY LEGENDARY PUNTER 3/5 - YouTube

Nobody liked an odds on chance more than Harry. If you listen at 3 - 5 minutes he says what he thinks about odds on now. "Nobody is making a living from backing odds on".

[MCLARKE]

55 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Nobody liked an odds on chance more than Harry. If you listen at 3 - 5 minutes he says what he thinks about odds on now. "Nobody is making a living from backing odds on".

Thanks for that, Harry's always entertaining.

I certainly wouldn't expect to make a living from it.

The facts are that over the last 8 years odds on have averaged -5% at SP, my challenge is to turn that into a profit using BOG.

[kroni]

23 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

That's the whole point of this exercise.

If at the end of a year I have made a loss then I'll hold my hands up and agree that you can't make profits from odds on shots.

As with all betting its about being selective, i've no doubt you can make money from from odds on shots.

A mate of mine a few years back always used to bet the "good things" he would say, like Big Bucks, Kauto Star, Hurricane Fly and probably plenty of others who where dominant in there time. He didn't back them every time but mainly in the big target races or notably weak races at short odds. I imagine he probably backed  the likes of Honeysuckle, Buveur D'Air, Frankel, Stradivarius and Baaeed a couple of times to, during their winning runs.

It's not my thing, i have a terrible record backing shorter prices, the stakes are higher and the upside is too little for my liking, im sure i've lost a few quid opposing the horses mentioned above plenty of times with each way shots though.

Sticking to the big races and the "good things" i think its profitable but not sure how often they would pop up

 

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, kroni said:

As with all betting its about being selective, i've no doubt you can make money from from odds on shots.

A mate of mine a few years back always used to bet the "good things" he would say, like Big Bucks, Kauto Star, Hurricane Fly and probably plenty of others who where dominant in there time. He didn't back them every time but mainly in the big target races or notably weak races at short odds. I imagine he probably backed  the likes of Honeysuckle, Buveur D'Air, Frankel, Stradivarius and Baaeed a couple of times to, during their winning runs.

It's not my thing, i have a terrible record backing shorter prices, the stakes are higher and the upside is too little for my liking, im sure i've lost a few quid opposing the horses mentioned above plenty of times with each way shots though.

Sticking to the big races and the "good things" i think its profitable but not sure how often they would pop up

I will probably run a separate trial where I use some method of form analysis to be more selective.

I will probably start this in November when I start to use my NH systems.

[Xtc12]

My thread "Short Priced Favs" runs from November to the end of the Cheltenham Festival, as I prefer NH Racing.  I think the best horses are trained for the Cheltenham Festival and the main protagonists are usually on the scene around November and they are always out to win. I know you will not get one of them running everyday but if not there will almost always be an odds on shot running. I just had a look at the NH racing from 19th November 2021 to 18th March 2022 to see how betting on short priced favourites faired out. 

The selections were the shortest odds favourite (SP Forecast) in a NH race in UK/Ireland. 

Now as we have no control on the market the selection may not open up as odds on when the betting markets are produced.

For the test there were 112 selections. There were 78 winners to give a strike rate of 69.64%. Ten of the winners returned odds of Evens or higher. 45 of the winners were at odds 1/2 or worse, while 10 of those were odds of 1/5 or smaller. The other 23 winners were between the odds of 8\15 and evens.

On a £10 single stake (with BOG) these would have produced a return on Investment of 7.82%.

The highest priced winner was Kansas City Chief @ 5\2, who was the shortest priced favourite the night before at 15\8.

Hope this is helpful some way @MCLARKE. 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

My thread "Short Priced Favs" runs from November to the end of the Cheltenham Festival, as I prefer NH Racing.  I think the best horses are trained for the Cheltenham Festival and the main protagonists are usually on the scene around November and they are always out to win. I know you will not get one of them running everyday but if not there will almost always be an odds on shot running. I just had a look at the NH racing from 19th November 2021 to 18th March 2022 to see how betting on short priced favourites faired out. 

The selections were the shortest odds favourite (SP Forecast) in a NH race in UK/Ireland. 

Now as we have no control on the market the selection may not open up as odds on when the betting markets are produced.

For the test there were 112 selections. There were 78 winners to give a strike rate of 69.64%. Ten of the winners returned odds of Evens or higher. 45 of the winners were at odds 1/2 or worse, while 10 of those were odds of 1/5 or smaller. The other 23 winners were between the odds of 8\15 and evens.

On a £10 single stake (with BOG) these would have produced a return on Investment of 7.82%.

The highest priced winner was Kansas City Chief @ 5\2, who was the shortest priced favourite the night before at 15\8.

Hope this is helpful some way @M

Thanks for that @Xtc12, excellent analysis and shows that profits can be made on short priced favourites. Gives me some encouragement after my recent dismal run.

[MCLARKE]

Update.

The trial continues to disappoint.

Since the last update there have been 10 winners from 20 runners with a loss of 5.77 points at SP and 4.54 points at early prices.

Overall now there have been 19 winners from 40 runners with a loss of 14.07 points at SP and 11.25 points at early prices.

Not much to be encouraged by although for those selections with odds of 1/3 or less there have been 6 winners from 7 selections with a profit at early prices of 9%. All these selections shortened in the betting.

Over the period I have been running the trial the loss of all odds on favourites has been 8% which is a little worse than the longer term average. The SP loss of my selections has been 35%. Hopefully this is just down to the randomness of numbers and will revert to the mean or for some reason my selection process is picking poor selections.

[RiderJake]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Update.

The trial continues to disappoint.

Since the last update there have been 10 winners from 20 runners with a loss of 5.77 points at SP and 4.54 points at early prices.

Overall now there have been 19 winners from 40 runners with a loss of 14.07 points at SP and 11.25 points at early prices.

Not much to be encouraged by although for those selections with odds of 1/3 or less there have been 6 winners from 7 selections with a profit at early prices of 9%. All these selections shortened in the betting.

Over the period I have been running the trial the loss of all odds on favourites has been 8% which is a little worse than the longer term average. The SP loss of my selections has been 35%. Hopefully this is just down to the randomness of numbers and will revert to the mean or for some reason my selection process is picking poor selections.

Hi, I would like to clarify. 35% is the loss for what period?

[MCLARKE]

I started this on the 4th of August.

[MCLARKE]

Latest update.

A slight improvement with 8 winners from 14 runners and a loss at SP of 0.14 points but a profit at BOG of 0.61 points.

Overall now there have been 27 winners from 54 selections with a loss at SP of 14.20 points and a loss at BOG of 10.64 points.

[MCLARKE]

7 winners from 10 runners since the last update with a profit of 0.85 points at SP and 1.16 at BOG.

Overall there have been 34 winners from 64 runners with a loss at SP of 13.35 points and a loss at BOG of 9.48 points.

[Villa Chris]

You can make money from odds on horses. You’ve just got to know which ones to bet on and which ones to leave.

[MCLARKE]

15 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

You can make money from odds on horses. You’ve just got to know which ones to bet on and which ones to leave.

This trial is just backing them blindly. I will look at a more selective method for this NH season.

[Villa Chris]

9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

This trial is just backing them blindly. I will look at a more selective method for this NH season.

I don’t tend to bother with them now because when I blindly backed them a few years back more lost than won . If more selective then there’s a good chance of profit. There’s been one or two lately where I thought that’s a pretty decent price and they have won . Being a small stakes punter I jus tend to leave them or try and double them up .

[MCLARKE]

They lose money at SP but I am hoping that by taking the early price on BET365 I can turn this into a profit.

As an example today's selection was 1/5 on the 1st show yesterday but ended up at 1/16.

So far the very short priced selections are the ones making a profit. For prices at 1/3 and below there have been 9 winners from 10 runners with a return of 12%.

[MCLARKE]

On 11/1/2022 at 2:00 PM, MCLARKE said:

This trial is just backing them blindly. I will look at a more selective method for this NH season.

I am working with a small sample size here so I will limit myself to just one rule :-

Exclude soft or heavy going. Over the last 9 years those horses running on this going have made a loss of 7.7% whilst those running on better going have made a loss of just 0.7%.

I will wait until the morning of the race before making the selections to ensure the lastest going is used. I will take the best prices available on oddschecker assuming that it is with a bookie that I have an account with.

I will publish my selections in the relevant daily thread. There are potentially 4 running tomorrow.