Racing Chat - Thursday 4th August

[The Brigadier]

A few technical issues tonight so here's my selections for Thursday :-

DAILY NAP

 

Sandown 6.36

Arrest 6/4 bet365

John and Thady Gosden’s Frankel colt who cost a cool 440,000 euros as a foal showed plenty of promise at the Esher track on his debut a fortnight ago where he was slowly away and given plenty to do by Frankie Dettori having been very well supported in the market when a running on third to the highly promising Stoute newcomer Nostrum who races in the same Juddmonte colours as the selection. With improvement likely and an extra furlong to suit he’ll be hard to beat with the Godolphin runner Desert Order the danger.

 

DAILY ACCA BET

 

Yarmouth 2.10

Bresson 1/4 bet365

Owned by Juddmonte stud in the famous green, pink and white silks, John and Thady Gosden’s Dubawi colt has shown more than enough in three starts at Newbury and Newmarket to suggest he’s more than capable of winning this under Rab Havlin. He only has four opponents and on paper appears to have an easy chance.

 

Yarmouth 2.40

Royal Parade 1/5 bet365

John and Thady Gosden could be in for a bumper day with fancied runners here and at Sandown and their Godolphin owned Kodiac gelding looks to have an easy opportunity to open his account on his third start. He probably bumped into a decent one last time when 2L runner up to the Charlie Appleby trained Sense Of Power at Newmarket and only has two rivals to take care of today. He’ll be at prohibitive odds but looks decent ‘acca’ material.

 

Sandown 7.15

Frantastic 2/1 William Hill

If breeding is anything to go by John and Thady Gosden’s full brother to the very smart Cracksman is home and hosed already. A ready winner of a Newcastle novice stakes last October he re-appeared over course and distance in the Classic Trial in April when a disappointing last of six beaten just under fifteen lengths. He’s surely better than that and with a 104 day absence can make his handicap debut a winning one under Frankie Dettori off of a workable official mark of 87.

 

DAILY TIPS

 

Nottingham 3.30

Chichen Itza 9/4 Betfred

This Flaxman Stables owned three year old filly has been allotted a very favourable handicap mark on her debut in that sphere. Her third to Gosden pair Darmoiselle and Mimikyu may have looked a bit disappointing at the time back in May but in hindsight that was a good effort when you consider the latter has won twice since and is now officially rated 99. The selection was 3 3/4L behind that day at level weights and starts her life in handicaps off of a mere 77. She’s been given a ten week break by her wily trainer Sir Michael Stoute and also sports a first time tongue tie. She probably has most to fear from William Muir & Chris Grassick’s Danza Della Luna who was an emphatic winner at Pontefract last time out but has been shunted up 8lb for winning.

 

Doncaster 5.40

Mercurous Power EW 11/2 bet365 1/5th 12345

Officially 4lb well in here Andrew Balding’s four year old will be ridden by Nicola Currie on the first race of this season’s racing league. Love it or loathe it the league has produced some better than average sized field and competitive racing and in Mercurius Power we have a horse at the top of his game that was a winner at Sandown last month prior to being touched off in a similar handicap at that track a week later. This is tougher but he has as good a chance as any.

 

Doncaster 6.10

Fresh Hope 7/2 bet365

Charlie Fellowes’ three year old filly has only been raised a couple of pounds for her comfortable 1/2L success at Leicester last time out from Spacer, the pair of them pulling clear of the two other runners. This will only be her 7th career start and she probably has more to offer under Hayley Turner who rode her on her penultimate start when a highly credible 6th in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot.

 

Doncaster 6.40

X J Rascal 15/8 Boylesports

George Boughey’s top weight made his handicap debut in a better class nursery than this at Goodwood last week when going down by just a head under William Buick to Prairie Falcon. He lost many lengths at the start that day and can probably be marked up for that effort. Off of the same handicap mark under Kieran Shoemark he should be hard to beat and warrants the best bet on Doncaster’s terrestrial televised meeting tonight.

 

Doncaster 7.10

Sound Of Iona EW 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

A ultra competitive sprint handicap where it may pay to back Jim Goldie’s six year old mare who arrives in excellent form having won three of her last four starts (two of which came here). She seems to save her best efforts for this Yorkshire track winning three of her five starts here and will have the assistance of Kevin Stott today.

 

Doncaster 8.10

Emaraty Hero EW  9/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234

Blinkered for the first time, Grant Tuer’s five year old by Lope De Vega has been knocking on the door of late finishing runner up on his last two starts on the same mark as he races off of today. 3lb claimer Oliver Stammers has ridden him on all seven starts this season but is replaced today by Cam Hardie and he should be thereabouts.

 

Doncaster 8.40

Good Birthday EW 5/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234

Andrew Balding’s six year old hasn’t won since this time last year when popping up over course and distance off of a handicap mark of 91. Following eight losing runs since he’s fallen to a mark a pound lower and despite top weight can be competitive under Sean Levey. Pulled out twice last month due to the fast ground any ease in the ground will suit him.

 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

Let's have a bit of fun and have a bash at these competitive Doncaster races 

Barley   7.8  8/1 5places 

Copper and five  7.6 14/1 5 places 

Antagonise   7.2 

Galiac     7.1 

Mercurius power  7.1 

These are very tricky races but with 5 places on offer at bet365 worth a try ....Barley found royal ascot way too hard but if forgiven that previously looked a horse with talent so this drop back to suitable level could see him resume winning ways 

Copperr and five also ew 3pts each top 2 

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

610 donc 

Fresh hope   8.1  11/4 

Lord rapscallion   7.7 22/1 

Princess raj   7.6 16/1 

8pts win fresh ...2pts win other 2 

[richard-westwood]

740 donc 

Night on earth   7.8  7/1 

Spring bloom   7.6 9/2 

Swayze    7.3 

Sir Henry cotton  7.3 

3pt ew top 2 

 

[calva decoy]

9 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Let's have a bit of fun and have a bash at these competitive Doncaster races 

Barley   7.8  8/1 5places 

Copper and five  7.6 14/1 5 places 

Antagonise   7.2 

Galiac     7.1 

Mercurius power  7.1 

These are very tricky races but with 5 places on offer at bet365 worth a try ....Barley found royal ascot way too hard but if forgiven that previously looked a horse with talent so this drop back to suitable level could see him resume winning ways 

Copperr and five also ew 3pts each top 2 

 

What times this race ? 

I've done a couple of R.Hannon's who's the leading seasonal trainer here. 

6.40 - ZABBIE 11/1 sky ( 4 )  1st 9/1 

7.10 - KODIAS SANGARIUS 22/1 sky ( 4 ) ?

shame I missed Hannon's SYSTEM that won the 5.40 at 9/1 but , hey ho .

It's good racing is trying different things & with increased prize money etc... but I find this Racing League , Sunday Series & Shergar Cup can end up being less competitive than general racing & races can become more tactical for points wise etc...

Edited August 4, 2022 by calva decoy
results update

[The Equaliser]

4 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

What times this race ? 

I've done a couple of R.Hannon's who's the leading seasonal trainer here. 

6.40 - ZABBIE 11/1 sky ( 4 ) 

7.10 - KODIAS SANGARIUS 22/1 sky ( 4 ) 

It's good racing is trying different things & with increased prize money etc... but I find this Racing League , Sunday Series & Shergar Cup can end up being less competitive than general racing & races can become more tactical for points wise etc...

5.40 is the time

[kensland]

Nottingham. 

Double. 

4.00. Hiya Maite.     2/1... unpl 

1.30. Ezaj.   ....           9/2..... unpl 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited August 4, 2022 by kensland

[Budgie 65]

Yankee mad one but I had 3 Yankees come up in this league last year right to formbook 370 200 and 85 ish on the 3 Yankees 20 p Yankees

540 don antagonize 25/1

710 don sound of Iona 11/1

740 lihou 9/1

840 don Jean baptiste 7/1

-----_------+++++++

610 don fresh hope nap 

640 xj rascal nb

 

[The Scientist]

Jack Mitchell won the racing league last year to my.mind proving himself the best all round rider. No Group One best seat on the coach in the Racing League easy peezie look at me...arnet I good rides there.

He is not at Doncaster tonight to retain his crown? Sandown Park. 4 rides booked Dange Alert, High Honour, Majestic Fighter, Island Bandit.

All have a decent chance. Charlie Appleby does not run two horses in a race for one to be humiliated. So second string in the 6.36 High Honour each way for me

 Good luck

 

 

 

[The Equaliser]

Prices seemed to be short on the afternoon races that I was looking at so I thought I would focus on the evening racing at Doncaster

6.10 Don Fresh Hope 3/1

7.10 Don Quest For Fun 3/1

7.40 Don Spring Bloom 5/1

8.40 Don Good Birthday 9/2

6 x 0.3 dbles, 4 x 0.3 trbles and 1 x 0.30 4 fold = 3.30 poss return of 335.10

Singles Bets:

5.40 Don Mercurious Power 10.5, Barley 12.0 and Copper And Five 11.5   3 x 1 pt wins (a bit extravagant)

6.10 Don Fresh Hope 3 pts win at 4.38 (My PL Nap) Melody Of Life 0.6 win at 9/1 and Ascot Adventure 0.4 win at 11/1

7.10 Don Sound Of Iona 0.30 win at 14/1

7.40 Don Lithou 0.30 win at 10/1

Total stakes = 10.90 for today

Good luck to all betting at Doncaster this evening

Zilch so far.  Terrible ride by Hayley Turner on Fresh Hope IMO

I will have 0.6 points win on Emaraty Hero in the 8.10 at Don at 12/1

And 2 points win on Good Birthday at 11/2

= 13.50 staked today

RESULTS UPDATE

No winners today at Doncaster; apologies to @richard-westwood for luring him in to have a go.  I guess as he said there are just some races or race meetings in today's instance where it is just too tricky to take part.  I will avoid these type of events again

MTD -30.9 & YTD  is - 233.08

Some possibilities tomorrow in class 4 and upwards races

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by The Equaliser

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV Offer Selections

Scratching my head on this one.

Another poor month with 3 winners from 31 selections and a loss of £575.00

Total now 26 winners from 233 selections and a loss of £2,572.50

However I am showing a profit overall of £72.35 from 433 selections on all the BET365 4/1 offers. These include the other BET365 4/1 offers (2 per day on non TV days).

I assumed there would be a better edge in the TV races because BET365 have to make this offer on all these races whereas on non TV days they can select the races they make the offer on and one would assume they would pick 2 bookie friendly races. However the stats don't back this up with a profit of £2645 from 200 selections.

I will perservere until I have a full year's selections.

Today's selection

DONC

8.10

Wynter Wildes (4)

4/1

[ipswich45]

dear dear dear

Chapman doing lead anchor on ITV tonight 

[kensland]

Sandown. 

Double. 

6.06. Bonny Angel.     11/4... 3rd 

6.36. Desert Order.     ... 4/7..... 2nd 

singles & double

Good luck all. 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by kensland

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, calva decoy said:

What times this race ? 

I've done a couple of R.Hannon's who's the leading seasonal trainer here. 

6.40 - ZABBIE 11/1 sky ( 4 ) 

7.10 - KODIAS SANGARIUS 22/1 sky ( 4 ) 

It's good racing is trying different things & with increased prize money etc... but I find this Racing League , Sunday Series & Shergar Cup can end up being less competitive than general racing & races can become more tactical for points wise etc...

Wished I'd done a few of Richard Hannon's; lovely pointer on your part.  He seems to have so many runners usually it puts me off. He is on song here though  ?

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, ipswich45 said:

dear dear dear

Chapman doing lead anchor on ITV tonight 

Have you missed a w somewhere ? ?

Marmite Man !

[calva decoy]

8 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Wished I'd done a few of Richard Hannon's; lovely pointer on your part.  He seems to have so many runners usually it puts me off. He is on song here though  ?

He's around +40 LSP at Donny this season with tonight's winners , maybe higher .

[Zilzalian]

Well i have sat here all night watching crap racing from Donny more non tryers than an England world cup team.

wont be doing this again Im with @MCLARKE on the benefits of ITV races tho, but wont be taking this rubbish seriously until the trainers take it serious in future.

[MCLARKE]

I backed Spring Bloom in the 7.40, pathetic !

[LEE-GRAYS]

Had last 2 winners so not to bad should have listened to Calva about hannon would have been a better night

[alexcaruso808]

On 8/4/2022 at 9:52 AM, calva decoy said:

've done a couple of R.Hannon's who's the leading seasonal trainer here. 

Where do you find this information about trainers ?

[Bang on]

17 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Well i have sat here all night watching crap racing from Donny more non tryers than an England world cup team.

wont be doing this again Im with @MCLARKE on the benefits of ITV races tho, but wont be taking this rubbish seriously until the trainers take it serious in future.

I never even look at the 'Racing League'.

What owner would want to pay all of the bills and then see his/her horse win... in someone elses colours ?

[MCLARKE]

3 minutes ago, Bang on said:

I never even look at the 'Racing League'.

What owner would want to pay all of the bills and then see his/her horse win... in someone elses colours ?

Me too. All seems a bit like "dumbing down" the sport, similar to T20 cricket.

[Valiant Thor]

1 hour ago, Bang on said:

What owner would want to pay all of the bills and then see his/her horse win... in someone elses colours ?

HORSE	PRIZE		LAST 3 RACES PRIZE MONEY
SYSTEM	25.7K	>	15K	11K	8K
YAASER	25.7K	>	4K	3K	4K
ZABBIE	13.3K	>	4K	4K	5K
JUAN LES PINS	25.7K	>	8K	3K	5K
MATTICE	27K	>	8K	6K	8K
SCAMPI	25.7K	>	4K	10K	6K
PLEDGE OF HONOUR	27K	>	4K	3K	4K

I have no idea ? ?? SIGH