Tennis Tips - August 1 - August 7

[four-leaf]

In-play bet in livechat thread from me now...

[neilovan]

54 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Taylor Fritz (-4.5 games) to beat Alexei Popyrin at 2.1 with bet365

I think he's gonna destroy the Aussie. 

I dunno why, but I am finding these game handicap bets really tricky. Seem to have a nasty way of creeping up on you. I really can't figure out if taking the straight win (at much lower odds), is just a better strategy, long term. Even now, Fritz is a set up (+2 games), but needing another 3 games (to cover the -4.5), would make me nervous.  But I am feeling confident on the match bet.

I do understand that at odds of 2.1  (versus starting odds of 1.23 for the win) you only have to win 1 in every 4 and a bit bets to have the same result.

Even now with Fritz a set up and 1-0 up in the 2nd, the -4.5 games is 1.72 .  Is it better taking it after the 1st set, considering the odds only dropped from 2.1 to 1.72 ?

Edited August 3, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

34 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

In-play bet in livechat thread from me now...

Can you post a link to that thread please.

[four-leaf]

6 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Can you post a link to that thread please.

 

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

True, but I feel it's a good chance for Riley to start winning matches again; he's certainly a better player than Kudla. 

I'm happy that you won, but it does take 2 breaks from Fritz in the second set as well as Fritz having to save 2 break points. Just feels so dicey for me ...

[Foo_Fighter]

My next bet is gonna be the following parlay:

Jason Kubler to beat Radu Albot at 1.44 with bet365

Naomi Osaka to win at least one set against Cori Gauff at 1.44 with bet365

Aleksandar Kovacevic to beat Billy Harris at 1.5 with bet365

Good luck folks🤞

[CzechPunter]

Happy with how Mandlik went against Badosa, and I'll go for Tomljanovic to beat Samsonova at 1.76 with Unibet today. Winning over Mertens doesn't count for much these days, and Tomljanovic looked good after returning from a longish break against Stephens.

[four-leaf]

[four-leaf]

Based on previous meetings I'm gonna have a go at the over 2.5 sets between Mike Ymer and Emil Ruusuvuori. Also Mike and Emil has been playing on similar levels this tournament and it's bound to be something of a cagey affair once again.

Sweden vs Finland, unknown outcome but great opportunity for a win for both players. Certainly not impossible we'll see a decider.

 

[four-leaf]

Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Liudmila Samsonova at 1.73

Tailing @CzechPunter on this one.

Mike Ymer/Emil Ruusuvuori over 2.5 sets at 2.50

Parlay at total odds 4.33 with Unibet

[Dax]

365 has a boosted single Fritz -1.5 sets@2.1 over Evans. I like to play with an edge

[neilovan]

I looked at the Washington weather forecast, and it is going to be a brutal 36C. Just very tough to play in.  The really hot weather does not favor big, heavier body types. For me Botic van de Zandschulp fits the bill here. AT 85kg, 6.3' he is gonna feel it today. His match with Gojo yesterday was also very long (3hours 9 min), and I think he may just be out on his feet.

His opponent (Francis Tiafoe won yesterday, in a quick match (1hour 24), so should be much fresher. I expect Tiafoe to win here and will take a medium bet here.

If they do split the first two sets, I will be all over him to win in 3, simply being way fresher.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I looked at the Washington weather forecast, and it is going to be a brutal 36C. Just very tough to play in.  The really hot weather does not favor big, heavier body types. For me Botic van de Zandschulp fits the bill here. AT 85kg, 6.3' he is gonna feel it today. His match with Gojo yesterday was also very long (3hours 9 min), and I think he may just be out on his feet.

His opponent (Francis Tiafoe won yesterday, in a quick match (1hour 24), so should be much fresher. I expect Tiafoe to win here and will take a medium bet here.

If they do split the first two sets, I will be all over him to win in 3, simply being way fresher.

They wont split. Tiafoe in 2.

[yogg]

Garland v Paszek Foxhills ITF W25 - Paszek to win @ 3.00 with BetVictor

I went to Foxhills yesterday and watched both these players win their respective games.

I thought Paszek was the better player and she definitely had a tougher opponent imo.

not a high confidence bet but, on what i saw, Paszek can win this.

Good luck all 👍

[yogg]

20 hours ago, neilovan said:

I looked at the Washington weather forecast, and it is going to be a brutal 36C. Just very tough to play in.  The really hot weather does not favor big, heavier body types. For me Botic van de Zandschulp fits the bill here. AT 85kg, 6.3' he is gonna feel it today. His match with Gojo yesterday was also very long (3hours 9 min), and I think he may just be out on his feet.

His opponent (Francis Tiafoe won yesterday, in a quick match (1hour 24), so should be much fresher. I expect Tiafoe to win here and will take a medium bet here.

If they do split the first two sets, I will be all over him to win in 3, simply being way fresher.

Edited August 5, 2022 by yogg
Zandschulp has had a rest now so bet is off.

[CzechPunter]

Paszek looking good to me from the odds standpoint as well, fingers crossed!

[Dax]

I backed Samsonova@2.1 to win over Raducanu. I saw her yesterday and I have to say she's changed something in her game. I mean she doen't look anymore for a winner whatever shot she takes, which is a good thing if you want to win consistently in the tour. On the other side of the net, Raducanu still struggling to find her way through her matches, the one against Osorio was awful, I don't see how she can be the fvourite in this match-up.

[neilovan]

9 hours ago, yogg said:

 

I agree. The 3rd set would really have favored Tiafoe. Now it is anyone's game.

[neilovan]

Can anyone give me an update on Anna Bogdan. Always thought that she has been such a feisty player, full of energy and actually very good. Has she been injured? 

[amity]

I think it's worth backing Gauff to beat Badosa later today/tonight at 4/7 with Bet365. 

Not amazing odds admittedly but Gauff has had two good wins against decent opponents while Badosa scraped over the line in her match against the relatively inexperienced Mandlik. I'm struggling to see how Badosa wins this, going on her recent very patchy form, therefore it's Gauff for me to beat the Spaniard. She also beat her very easily in their last meeting earlier this year.

[CzechPunter]

Short odds, but I think there's still a slight edge in Lehecka to beat Mpetshi at 1.30 with Unibet. He's an ATP level player, loves playing at home, and this tournament really is his to win now.

[amity]

13 hours ago, amity said:

I think it's worth backing Gauff to beat Badosa later today/tonight at 4/7 with Bet365. 

Not amazing odds admittedly but Gauff has had two good wins against decent opponents while Badosa scraped over the line in her match against the relatively inexperienced Mandlik. I'm struggling to see how Badosa wins this, going on her recent very patchy form, therefore it's Gauff for me to beat the Spaniard. She also beat her very easily in their last meeting earlier this year.

Always a risk betting on players who are playing during the night (European time), you can't hedge in case your bet is going awry. 🙁 Badosa chose last night to give her most impressive performance of the year, totally going against her very flaky play of late. 🤦‍♂️ Think I'll stick to European matches for the next while where I can at least change course mid match if need be!

[TennisPRO]

Siniakova (-5.5 games) to beat Stevanovic || 1.91@Olybet

No way, Stevanovic can handle Siniakova. Despite playing well in this ITF tournament, this will be her last game. Siniakova looks more compact of a player, and doesnt allow too much of unforced errors. 

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome @TennisPRO!

[raduvlad1995]

what do you guys think about med-norrie and rublev-nishioka ? I see them both as favorites clearly but still it feels like they could be upset(even rublev)

[Simeon Borisof]

3 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

what do you guys think about med-norrie and rublev-nishioka ? I see them both as favorites clearly but still it feels like they could be upset(even rublev)

Can't see it. With RUblev being such a strong baseliner, can't see how Nishioka could hurt him in any way possible.Both favourite should win in 2.

Edited August 6, 2022 by Simeon Borisof

[raduvlad1995]

2 hours ago, Simeon Borisof said:

Can't see it. With RUblev being such a strong baseliner, can't see how Nishioka could hurt him in any way possible.Both favourite should win in 2.

I just wish medvedv won t have a meltdown or smth

[neilovan]

Looking at these North American tournaments, you really have to find a way to bet smart. You have to be able to control some of the outcomes in your bets. Either taking a small loss, or bailing out, or cashing out a couple of legs that have won.  So you have to have bets, and parlays that will conclude before you go to sleep. Otherwise you have no control (and you sleep with 1 eye open), and you can't adjust or have any influence. SO be disciplined and be aware of match starting times. I like to take low staked multi legged bets in these situations. I'll stake at levels, where I won't stress if I lose, and hopefully I find 1 or 2 parlays that work. 

For me I don't see much on the card for ATP Montreal qualifying. These matches look like 50-50 shouts.

In the Washington Final I think that Kyrigos overpowers Kishioka with his serve. Just a dominant weapon. Kyrigos has also been very good from the baseline. I feel that he should cover the -4.5 game handicap at odds of 1.9  Two other bets I do like are Tomljanovic and Lui to both win. The treble works out at 2 to 1 which is fine for me.