MLS Predictions > Jul 9th & 10th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

OK, so my attention returns to the UK leagues this month as I look to preview the teams ahead of the new season. I will still look to get the odds and ratings of the MLS games up each week for the remainder of the season but previews will be reduced unless there is a demand for them. Here are the odds and ratings for the next round of games. Keen to hear what bets you guys all have lined up! 

[dylanphan]

Thank you Stevie Day for all of your efforts!   

Big weekend ahead in MLS with a few major derbys - LAFC/LA Galaxy and Portland/Seattle.  

I'll see if I can swing back here later in the week but I did want to focus my attention on the NYFC/NE Revolution game.  As I tend to focus on goals markets, this one is a good spot, imho to see some goals.  NYFC's attack, in particular at home, is fantastic.  They move the ball swiftly both through the middle and with bombing runs on the flanks, and if Castellanos starts, he always a good bet to get a goal (two this weekend).  That said, they are very susceptible on the counter and allow plenty of opportunities against.  They are kind of a team in flux here as they have an interim head coach, and big questions about who may be on the move.  On the other side you have the Revolution who have made quite a number of moves to solidify this team and honestly I can see them making a late charge to be a contender for the MLS cup.  While their last road match at Vancouver (*something like 2,000+ miles away) was a 0-0 draw, most of their away games see plenty of goals, as they score and allow almost 2 per game.  NE overall are an over machine with 12/18 getting over 2.5, and 7/8 on the road going over 2.5.  As I mentioned, NYFC is very aggressive on the small home field they have this game almost assuredly will get plenty of chances.  And while I can't guarantee the goals, I do like o2.75 (-120) for a double unit wager.

g'luck

[dylanphan]

For tonight, I have two plays that will hopefully pay off.

LAFC -115 to win (1.15 to win 1 unit).  Odds have drifted to a point where I think this is now a very playable number.  There are a few injury concerns for LAFC with Vela and Rodriguez, but as this is a derby, at home, I do expect both to play (note, both missed last game out).  Oh, and Bale will be at the game.  Doubt he plays, maybe a late sub on, but this is a premier match for the MLS, in prime time, so expect all the major players to shine.  LAFC have scored at least 2x in 9 of their last 10 home games.  The only game they didn't, they lost 1-2 vs Austin, but thoroughly dominated statistically.  That was their only loss at home on the year, so I think -115 is a great price and worth a full play here.

LAFC/LA Galaxy o3.75 +200 (0.5 unit play)

As mentioned above in detail, LAFC has plenty of scoring punch, in particular at home. I've actually seen more Galaxy games, and they are nowhere near as good, but one thing they do is get plenty of chances as well.  And the professional poacher Chicharito always a threat to nick one in (Although he seems to miss more clear cut chances than anyone in the league as well!).  I would not try to talk any one off a punt at the o2.5 line, but, if you look at previous head to head matches we have seen at least 2 goals in every match since inception and some barn burners with two 8 goal games, a 6 goal game, and last match out was a 4 goal result.  Could be a dud, but I'll take a shot at 2/1 odds in a game where I'm expecting at least a few goals.  Just a half unit, maybe we get another 3-1 LAFC victory

g'luck

[dylanphan]

Played Seattle -110 vs Portland. Big rivalry game, Seattle at home is always a strong play and they come in to this one in strong form.  Both teams need points here, so a draw could be in the cards, but end of the day I just think Seattle is too solid of a side, have home field and will be a tough team to break down.  Under would also be a decent play here.

 

Charlotte/Nashville I see some value here in o2.25 (Evs).  Both teams are about 50/50 to hit the 2.5 goals this year, but Charlotte really struggles for goals at home which is odd.  Nashville's games have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, and while Charlotte's only 2 of their last 5, they do create a lot of chances, they just don't finish well.  I think we're getting a gift here with the 2.25 line, and I also like BTTS in this one.

May be back later for the late games, but have some errands to run

 

Pretty good start for the weekend here, LAFC won 3-2 so won both those bets, and NYFC gifted 3 first half PK's and I see they just scored to make it 3-1 so my biggest bet of the week lands.

g'luck