Women’s Euro 2022

[Torque]

27 minutes ago, Labrador said:

Unlucky - she should have scored with her head in that 1st half and then shot over from a decent pull-back.

I'm happy enough even though it's a losing bet. As you say she might have done better with that chance right at the start but I can't complain. Ultimately if you take a price about something that you think is worth it then it doesn't matter whether that one bet wins or not. Enough bets along the same lines and you end up ahead which is what I'm always aiming for.

[Torque]

Extra time is is then. England might have won if they hadn't become so defensive after scoring.

[vikki37]

37 minutes ago, Torque said:

Extra time is is then. England might have won if they hadn't become so defensive after scoring.

this is just so England tradition even for the mens'!??‍♂️??‍♂️

[harry_rag]

20 hours ago, Labrador said:

Actually have decided to back Lena Oberdorf to be booked (11/10 bet 365).  Perhaps one or two words in the referee's ear during HT.

 It did have an air of inevitability about it but I was unsuccessful in trying to get matched at a bigger price in running on BF. I looked at her pre-game but decided odds of 9/4 were a bit skinny. 

An enjoyable tournament to watch and to bet on in the absence of the deferred Men's World Cup. Not a profitable one for me but a bit of a review coming up which may be useful for the next major women's tournament.

[Torque]

23 hours ago, Torque said:

10pts White to score a Header @ 12.00 365

10pts Germany to Lift the Trophy, Popp to Score and Both Teams to be Carded @ 8.50 365

The latter of my two final bets was scratched as Popp got injured before the match started - rotten luck for you @harry_rag - and the former bet was a loser, but I certainly got a good run with White having a header saved early on that she might have done better with. As expected she was withdrawn after an hour and possibly with that expectation in mind it wasn't a bet worth having. Tournament bets were very profitable after England won, as they were the team I had the biggest position on when I closed my book after the semi-finals.

[harry_rag]

Ok, a bit of a review, I'll try and keep it to the point in terms of things that may be of use from a future betting perspective.

• Total goals: Made up at 95 with 3 in extra time. Not much damage done if anyone sold at 93 as I flagged pre-tournament, I'd probably be a seller if the expectation was inflated next time round. There were progressively less goals in every round of group games and (unsurprisingly) the knockout stage. Usually the opening round of group games tend to be tighter.
   
• Total corners: Averaged an unremarkable 10.23 per game (in 90 minutes). There were 5 instances of a team registering 10 or more corners with France the only team to manage it more than once. 3 of those totals came against Belgium (11 by France, 12 by Italy and 13 by Sweden).
   
• Bookings: Averaged 21.61 points overall in 90 minutes, exactly 20 in the group stages and 27.14 in the knockout rounds. 11 out of the 31 games went over 25 points or 2.5 cards, 8 of the 24 group games and 3 of the 7 KO's.
   
• Headers scored: 26 in 14 out of 31 games, so 28.26% of all goals scored in 90 minutes and at least one in 45.16% of all games. There were only 2 scored in the 7 KO games, both semis where I'd decided to swerve the bet!  Certainly worth considering in future tournaments though worth bearing in mind that what we saw here was a high % of goals scored from headers and a higher than normal number of goals per game. You'd need both trends to continue to replicate the results. Around 17% seems a typical figure for headed goals in men's leagues, I've not found figures for the WSL yet to see if this is a phenomenon confined to International tournaments.
   
• Penalties scored: 7 in 31 games in 90 minutes. Most, no doubt, after a VAR check! I suspect you'd have lost a fair bit of money betting on penalties being scored or taken at the available odds.
   
• KO games being drawn/going to penalties: 3 out of 7 games drawn for a decent profit and an ROI a shade under 60%. It remains an obvious potential betting strategy for all major International tournaments. None of the 3 games went to penalties, bucking the observed trend in recent Women's competitions (11 out of 13 draws went the full distance). Maybe keep it simple and just back the draw! You'd have still made a profit if, for instance, you'd had £20 on the draw and £10 on pens but not much.

[harry_rag]

A quick look at how the FIFA rankings fared. There were 5 draws in the 24 group games, including all 3 of Iceland's games. The one against France being perhaps the only real surprise. Of the other 19 games, 17 were won by the higher ranked team. The 2 "upsets" were Austria beating Norway and Belgium beating Italy.

2 of the KO games were won by the lower ranked team in 90 minutes (both semi finals) and England were the lower ranked team when beating Spain and Germany in ET. 

Factoring in England's home advantage and the improvement under Serena Wiegman that will no doubt be reflected in the updated rankings you'd have to say that the rankings held up reasonably well.

[harry_rag]

On 8/1/2022 at 3:44 PM, harry_rag said:

Ok, a bit of a review, I'll try and keep it to the point in terms of things that may be of use from a future betting perspective.

• Total goals: Made up at 95 with 3 in extra time. Not much damage done if anyone sold at 93 as I flagged pre-tournament, I'd probably be a seller if the expectation was inflated next time round. There were progressively less goals in every round of group games and (unsurprisingly) the knockout stage. Usually the opening round of group games tend to be tighter.

Updating the Euros review with the details from the World Cup, for future reference.

163 goals from the 48 games with just the one in extra time so an average of 3.4 compared to 3.06 in the Euros. By round it was a bit more typical than the Euros, going 34-39-53-37 so progressively more in each of the 3 rounds of group games but dropping off in the knockout rounds.

[harry_rag]

On 8/1/2022 at 3:44 PM, harry_rag said:

Total corners: Averaged an unremarkable 10.23 per game (in 90 minutes). There were 5 instances of a team registering 10 or more corners with France the only team to manage it more than once. 3 of those totals came against Belgium (11 by France, 12 by Italy and 13 by Sweden).

The average was only 9.23 with 8 instances of a team racking up double digits. France did it twice (against Panama and Jamaica) and Panama had it done to them twice (by France and Brazil). Australia's 15 against Nigeria and Spain's 22 against Costa Rica were the only team totals over 13.

[harry_rag]

On 8/1/2022 at 3:44 PM, harry_rag said:

Bookings: Averaged 21.61 points overall in 90 minutes, exactly 20 in the group stages and 27.14 in the knockout rounds. 11 out of the 31 games went over 25 points or 2.5 cards, 8 of the 24 group games and 3 of the 7 KO's.

18.59 overall, 20.52 in the group stages and 12.81 in the knockout rounds. 19 out of the 64 games went over 25 points or 2.5 cards, 17 of the 64 group games and 2 of the 16 KO's. Overall that implies you'd want around 11/5 for >25 points in an average game. I suspect unders backers would've had the better end of the deal.

[harry_rag]

On 8/1/2022 at 3:44 PM, harry_rag said:

Headers scored: 26 in 14 out of 31 games, so 28.26% of all goals scored in 90 minutes and at least one in 45.16% of all games. There were only 2 scored in the 7 KO games, both semis where I'd decided to swerve the bet!

33 in 25 out of 64 games, so 20.25% of all the goals and at least 1 in 39.06% of all games. There were only 5 scored in 4 of the 16 KO games and they all came in the round of 16. Overall you'd have made a small loss if you'd backed it in every game but the ROI was running at 12.7% prior to the quarter finals. Maybe just back it in the group games and round of 16 where there is one in future tournaments. 

[harry_rag]

On 8/1/2022 at 3:44 PM, harry_rag said:

Penalties scored: 7 in 31 games in 90 minutes. Most, no doubt, after a VAR check! I suspect you'd have lost a fair bit of money betting on penalties being scored or taken at the available odds.

20 scored in 18 out of the 64 games so 28.1% compared to 22.6% in the Euros. I think there was at least one awarded in all of the first 8 games whereas there was no headed goal in any of those games so just a reminder that short term blips can occur with any stats!

[harry_rag]

On 8/1/2022 at 3:44 PM, harry_rag said:

KO games being drawn/going to penalties: 3 out of 7 games drawn for a decent profit and an ROI a shade under 60%. It remains an obvious potential betting strategy for all major International tournaments. None of the 3 games went to penalties, bucking the observed trend in recent Women's competitions (11 out of 13 draws went the full distance).

4 out of 16 games were drawn so you'd have made a small loss backing it in every game. With 6 other ties settled by a single goal you would perhaps have been unlucky. The antepost bet on 4 or more games going to extra time landed early but, as it turned out, with nothing to spare. 3 of the 4 drawn games went to penalties so back on trend in that respect. Still an angle worth considering in my opinion.

[harry_rag]

On 8/1/2022 at 4:06 PM, harry_rag said:

A quick look at how the FIFA rankings fared. There were 5 draws in the 24 group games, including all 3 of Iceland's games. The one against France being perhaps the only real surprise. Of the other 19 games, 17 were won by the higher ranked team. The 2 "upsets" were Austria beating Norway and Belgium beating Italy.

2 of the KO games were won by the lower ranked team in 90 minutes (both semi finals) and England were the lower ranked team when beating Spain and Germany in ET. 

Factoring in England's home advantage and the improvement under Serena Wiegman that will no doubt be reflected in the updated rankings you'd have to say that the rankings held up reasonably well.

12 of the knockout ties saw the higher ranked team progress. 6th placed Spain (based on pre-tournament rankings) overcame 3rd placed Sweden and 4th placed England to get to and win the final. Sweden edged out a lacklustre USA on penalties and hosts Australia (10th) did the same to France (5th).

We saw 10 draws in the 48 group games, 6 where the rankings gap was 10 places or more and 11 games were won by the lower ranked team so 27 were won by the higher ranked team. That's 56.25% compared to 70.8% in the Euros so the "upset index" definitely hit a higher mark in the World Cup.