Women’s Euro 2022

[harry_rag]

Just starting to look at this so I thought I’d get a thread going. Might have an outright bet or two and will certainly be on a few of the games.

[harry_rag]

https://www.uefa.com/womenseuro/news/0274-14f1d666b9a3-7c59d08f17a4-1000--referee-teams-appointed-for-uefa-women-s-euro-2022/

Ref appointments; hoping @Labrador might unearth some decent cards bets cometh the time! Could do with a decent single site for Women's ref stats, most of the usual sites seem a bit hit and miss.

@jamied02 do you fancy a tilt at doing your usual ratings for this by any chance?

[Labrador]

Definitely keep an eye open for our old friend Riem Hussein.

[harry_rag]

12 points on France to win at 6/1 with Uni

Had a look at the teams in terms of odds, form, Fifa rankings, draw etc. and arrived at the conclusion that France were a reasonable bet at the price.

Not an earth-shattering conclusion to say that I think the winner will come from the front 6 in the betting. There are only 16 teams in in it and those 6 are all at single figure odds with Norway 20/1 next.

England at 9/2 not the worst bet given current form and the fact that they're hosts but they're looking at Spain or Germany in the QF and I think the price is fair at best.

Spain and Germany are in the obligatory "Group of Death" and I think the former are false favourites at less than 4/1. Good as they are, and as strong as the domestic game is now, I think the market has overrated them slightly. Germany not the force of old but still to be respected. I wouldn't back them at 8/1 though given the draw.

Holland and Sweden should get out of group C easily enough but don't appeal at the prices.

France have the easiest looking group to me (in with the 8th, 10th and 11th ranked teams in the competition). Recent form comparable to England. Just stood out enough to me at a price that was clear best and may well be trimmed. (Still 6 for now on the exchange.)

[harry_rag]

Racing Post preview up now. Tips as follows:

England e/w at 9/2 (Hills going 5/1 though appears to be win only)

Katoto (France) e/w top goalscorer at 7/1 (seen 8/1 somewhere but you might want to check the place terms if playing in this market)

Holland to win group C at 4/5

Italy to qualify from group D at 4/6

PP have gone to town with player, team and totals specials which may include a decent price or two. My inclination to take a close look is tempered by the amount I'd probably be allowed on.

[harry_rag]

SX have some totals markets up (all include extra time barring the 90th minute goals):

Goals 93-95

Total goal minutes 4900-5000

Yellow cards 83-86.5

Red cards 3.25-3.75

Bookings 915-945

Corners 298-305

90th minute goals 5.75-6.25

Bonanza 35-45 (5/10/25/50/100 for each game with 6/7/8/9/10+ goals)

I'm currently perusing the technical report for the 2017 Euros to see if anything stands out. First take, if you've got an account with them, sell total goals at 93. I'd be surprised if it goes over that and there seems to be more upside to the bet than downside.

2017 was the first 16 team tournament (31 games) and there were 68 goals at an average of 2.19 goals per game. Going back from there the average number of goals were 2.24, 3.00, 3.33, 2.66 and 2.33. Only the 3.33 in 2005 would result in a loss.

[harry_rag]

3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Yellow cards 83-86.5

Red cards 3.25-3.75

Bookings 915-945

90 yellows and 3 reds for 975 points last time. I can't see anything to quibble with in the prices, I'd buy total points if you gave me a free bet to use on that market but that's based on a gut feel that there's a bit of an upward trend. I'll have a quick look round for any "off" fixed odds lines though I'm not expecting many firms to have bothered with prices.

[GhostLetter]

On 6/26/2022 at 1:36 PM, harry_rag said:

12 points on France to win at 6/1 with Uni

Had a look at the teams in terms of odds, form, Fifa rankings, draw etc. and arrived at the conclusion that France were a reasonable bet at the price.

Not an earth-shattering conclusion to say that I think the winner will come from the front 6 in the betting. There are only 16 teams in in it and those 6 are all at single figure odds with Norway 20/1 next.

England at 9/2 not the worst bet given current form and the fact that they're hosts but they're looking at Spain or Germany in the QF and I think the price is fair at best.

Spain and Germany are in the obligatory "Group of Death" and I think the former are false favourites at less than 4/1. Good as they are, and as strong as the domestic game is now, I think the market has overrated them slightly. Germany not the force of old but still to be respected. I wouldn't back them at 8/1 though given the draw.

Holland and Sweden should get out of group C easily enough but don't appeal at the prices.

France have the easiest looking group to me (in with the 8th, 10th and 11th ranked teams in the competition). Recent form comparable to England. Just stood out enough to me at a price that was clear best and may well be trimmed. (Still 6 for now on the exchange.)

Spain for me.

Deserved favourites and significantly better odds than I was expecting.

[Torque]

I'm going Germany and Sweden. 10 points each at 9.00 and 8.00 respectively. England are way too short and Spain will miss Putellas.

[harry_rag]

Went down a bit of a rabbit hole with the mechanics of my anytime goalscorer system today, hopefully it throws up a bet or two after all that! Will check when tonight's lineups are out.

The tipsters take on tonight's game is an easy win for England with lashings of goals. My own view is that it could be more cagey as per the traditional opening rounds of International tournaments. Our middle ground would be England to win to nil, but that's just my gut feel on how the game will go rather than something I'm betting on.

No need to force a bet on every game!

[harry_rag]

12 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Went down a bit of a rabbit hole with the mechanics of my anytime goalscorer system today, hopefully it throws up a bet or two after all that! Will check when tonight's lineups are out.

Disappointed to see BF haven't bothered to price up the goalscorer markets. No bet for me.

Was hoping for a 2-3 cards market at around evens having looked at the ref's stats but no such luck. A couple of prices that appeal are evens for both teams to be shown a card and 7/10 for >2 AH cards (2 would be a push). I won't say who it's with but I was allowed less than £3.65 on either bet!

[harry_rag]

16 hours ago, harry_rag said:

The tipsters take on tonight's game is an easy win for England with lashings of goals. My own view is that it could be more cagey as per the traditional opening rounds of International tournaments. Our middle ground would be England to win to nil, but that's just my gut feel on how the game will go rather than something I'm betting on.

Nicely illustrates that some of my best work is the selections I put forward but don't have any money on! 

 

16 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Was hoping for a 2-3 cards market at around evens having looked at the ref's stats but no such luck. A couple of prices that appeal are evens for both teams to be shown a card and 7/10 for >2 AH cards (2 would be a push). I won't say who it's with but I was allowed less than £3.65 on either bet!

And this nicely illustrates that one of the most effective weapons in my fixed odds armoury is the stake limits that some bookies apply to my bets! Can't grumble about the absence of cards in this game.

[harry_rag]

Gut feel for tonight is Norway win to nil, maybe 3 or 4 unless NI do a really good job of keeping it tight.

Had the pence allowed on NI 1st and last corner at 9/2 each, price looks too big based on the spreads for total and team corners (I'd say it should be a bit less than 4/1). Prices elsewhere are 11/4 NI and 1/4 Norway so there's value one way or the other.

Reiten to score if you pushed me for a player bet but I'd want closer to 2/1 than the 13/8 on offer.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Gut feel for tonight is Norway win to nil, maybe 3 or 4 unless NI do a really good job of keeping it tight.

Had the pence allowed on NI 1st and last corner at 9/2 each, price looks too big based on the spreads for total and team corners (I'd say it should be a bit less than 4/1). Prices elsewhere are 11/4 NI and 1/4 Norway so there's value one way or the other.

Reiten to score if you pushed me for a player bet but I'd want closer to 2/1 than the 13/8 on offer.

Thanks for this @harry_rag it pushed me towards a 365 boost which was Norway HT-FT plus Hansen and Reiten to score 

[harry_rag]

Impressed by NI in terms of how they responded to the early goals and came out in the second half, though I’ll be interested to see what Norway’s Xg figure is.

Next round of games is England v Norway and NI v Austria so it’s England v NI a week tomorrow in the final round of games.

I’m inclined to pencil that in for a high goals total though will see how things stand after the middle games. No doubt NI will target the Austria game as their best chance of getting a positive result and a 3rd game in just over a week against the hosts could be a game too far. The ideal scenario is England drawing with Norway and needing goals in their final game to top the group!

[harry_rag]

On way home for first game, expecting Spain to win reasonably comfortably and interested to see just how good they look. Would have had an interest bet on Caldentey to score at the 6/4 available according to OC but into 11/8 so I’ll leave it.

So, if you want a guaranteed winner… 

[harry_rag]

I'm expecting Germany to win narrowly in this game, let's see if the "not the force they were" narrative is justified or not.

2 goalscorers that look big enough to back if you fancy an interest are Buhl at 3/1 with SX and Bruun at 4/1 PP.

[harry_rag]

So many headed goals in this tournament! When I saw there were 15 in the last Euros I thought there could be some mileage in betting on a header being scored but when I saw the prices my instinctive reaction was “too short”.

I might have to have a rethink tomorrow!

[harry_rag]

First noteworthy referring performance of the tournament yesterday from Esther Staubli.

https://uk.soccerway.com/referees/esther-staubli/98455/

5 yellows and a red, doesn't look like a ref who is inclined to let things go or keep the cards in her pocket. Nor to ease off when the game's virtually over.

If you were inclined towards going high on cards her appointment would be a positive; if you fancy going low then it would be a cautionary note. 

[harry_rag]

18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

So many headed goals in this tournament! When I saw there were 15 in the last Euros I thought there could be some mileage in betting on a header being scored but when I saw the prices my instinctive reaction was “too short”.

I might have to have a rethink tomorrow!

15 headed goals from 68 in the last Euros (22%). 6 out of 15 so far this year (1 for Northern Ireland, 3 for Spain and 2 for Germany). Prices with Hills are 8/5 and 19/10 for today's games (considerably shorter with the only other firm quoting odds). I could make a case for the odds being fair at worst but, with the 2 lowest goals expectations of the tournament so far, maybe worth maintaining a watching brief.

2 tough to call games where none of the possible results would be a surprise. I'm slightly favouring the Swiss and the Dutch but from a prediction rather than punting perspective.

Jessica Silva 4/1 anytime with 365 appeals for an interest in the opening game.

I can see some mileage in going high on cards in the later game. Welsh ref Foster has high enough numbers to make PP's 6/4 for >2.5 cards look a bit generous. 

[harry_rag]

A couple of scorers in the late game; bought van de Donk goal rush plus at 3 (think better than 7/1 anytime with a bonus if she scores more than once but 13/2 best fixed odds price would've done). Also Angeldahl at 6/1 365.

[Labrador]

Could be worth a goalscorer bet on France skipper and centre back, Wendie Renard, for this evening's clash with Italy. Both for Lyon and the national team Renard is a regular scorer and has actually scored 8 times in 9 appearances for France in 2021 and 2022. Renard is 4/1 to score (skybet), 33/1 to score 2 or more (Coral, Hills, skybet) and 400/1 (Hills) a hat-trick.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, Labrador said:

Could be worth a goalscorer bet on France skipper and centre back, Wendie Renard, for this evening's clash with Italy.

Renard something of a standing dish on the goalscorer menu as I recall. Prices do look tempting, dare I wait for the spreads to go up to see if they're even better?

She has only scored twice in 16 league games this season but averaged at least a goal every other game in the preceding 3 seasons. She's scored 7 goals in 5 of France's last 10 games but only scored in 2 of the 10 before that (still equating to a simplistic 4/1 shot). 9 goals in 7 of the last 20 games is decent enough though.

Maybe take what I'm allowed on the fixed odds and see if the spreads are worth a small top up.

[harry_rag]

Belgium v Iceland too close to call so I'll take the timid pundit's way out and predict a draw! Hopefully not a goalless one as I've gone for 3 anytimes at "1 will do" prices.

Dhont at 5/1 and De Caigny 11/4 for Belgium and Brynjarsdottir at 9/2 for Iceland.

[Torque]

7 hours ago, Labrador said:

Could be worth a goalscorer bet on France skipper and centre back, Wendie Renard, for this evening's clash with Italy. Both for Lyon and the national team Renard is a regular scorer and has actually scored 8 times in 9 appearances for France in 2021 and 2022. Renard is 4/1 to score (skybet), 33/1 to score 2 or more (Coral, Hills, skybet) and 400/1 (Hills) a hat-trick.

 

6 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Renard something of a standing dish on the goalscorer menu as I recall. Prices do look tempting, dare I wait for the spreads to go up to see if they're even better?

She has only scored twice in 16 league games this season but averaged at least a goal every other game in the preceding 3 seasons. She's scored 7 goals in 5 of France's last 10 games but only scored in 2 of the 10 before that (still equating to a simplistic 4/1 shot). 9 goals in 7 of the last 20 games is decent enough though.

Maybe take what I'm allowed on the fixed odds and see if the spreads are worth a small top up.

With these posts in mind, I'm backing a 365 boost which is France to win, Katoto to have at least two shots on target and Renard to have at least one shot on target @ 4.33

Edited July 10, 2022 by Torque

[Torque]

I'll also take France to win, both teams to score and Katoto to score which has been pushed out to 6.00 at 365.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, Torque said:

 

With these posts in mind, I'm backing a 365 boost which is France to win, Katoto to have at least two shots on target and Renard to have at least one shot on target @ 4.33

 

1 hour ago, Torque said:

I'll also take France to win, both teams to score and Katoto to score which has been pushed out to 6.00 at 365.

Struck out on the former as Katoto only had one shot on target which was her goal, but landed the latter at a nice price. Thanks @Labrador and @harry_rag for the info.

[harry_rag]

6 minutes ago, Torque said:

 

Struck out on the former as Katoto only had one shot on target which was her goal, but landed the latter at a nice price. Thanks @Labrador and @harry_rag for the info.

I’m not sure we helped with the winner, other than by getting you looking at the game!

After Katoto there were big differences of opinion between the spread firms on the French scorers. One firm made Renard their second most likely scorer while both rated her better than a 4/1 shot. Not much reliance on set pieces when you go 5-0 up that early!

I’m wary of prop bets involving shots on target, there are a lot less of them than punters tend to imagine and it’s not easy to price up with any confidence. The second bet may well have been value compared to the pre-game prices for the individual elements. I’m multiple times bitten, twice shy now with such footy specials, after some beginners luck my records tell me to steer well clear of them. To be fair, this year that seems to be true of fixed odds bets generally!

[Labrador]

With Riem Hussein officiating in the England v Norway game this evening I've had to have a small bet on cross-bookings with a buy at 180 (SX). I'm not really convinced this fixture will need much disciplinary intervention so only a small unit stake of 12p.

I'm keener on a bet on Northern Ireland in their make or break match against Austria. For some reason in these European championships there is a Venezuelan referee who is pretty card happy in her domestic leagues but seems more restrained on the international front. However in this fixture Emi Caldera Barrera may be compelled to show a yellow or three. Generally the Austrians seem very well disciplined and receive few cards. I've gone with over 1.5 Northern Ireland cards at 11/8 with Bet 365. 

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, Labrador said:

With Riem Hussein officiating in the England v Norway game this evening I've had to have a small bet on cross-bookings with a buy at 180 (SX). I'm not really convinced this fixture will need much disciplinary intervention so only a small unit stake of 12p.

Hey it's Reim at the helm and the prices look ok with regard to the spreads quotes of 23-26. I've split my stake across >3.5 cards at 18/5 Uni and >1 card for each team at 13/2 Hills.

An early goal for either team should aid our cause.

Good luck with the bet in the other game, no strong view myself. I believe the Venezuelan ref is taking part by way of an exchange programme so a European ref will be handling games in the Copa America equivalent. Might see if there was a similar appointment last time and what sort of totals she posted. - No, there wasn't!

Edited July 11, 2022 by harry_rag
Added closing text in italics