racing chat tuesday

[black rabbit]

the menstone gem     2 45 bev     1/5 pt ew  33/1   

[richard-westwood]

315 bev 

Qaasid   8.7 15.5 

Myrstika   8.6  3.1 

These 2 are a bit clear of rest so I'll try 2pt qaasid ...5pt myr  and 1pt reverse forecast 

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

315 bev 

Qaasid   8.7 15.5 

Myrstika   8.6  3.1 

These 2 are a bit clear of rest so I'll try 2pt qaasid ...5pt myr  and 1pt reverse forecast 

Had 1 pt win on each and 1 pt win on Athmad at 9.2.  Would clear 6 pts if the outsiders won and B/E if the jolly old favourite obliges.  Let's hope that the cheekpieces and Paul Hanagan work the oracle on Qaasid ?

[azzybear]

moveonup 1.30

[azzybear]

bear to dream 2.00 

[The Equaliser]

I was gobsmacked yesterday when I saw that A Sure Welcome won the 6.05 at Windsor at 9/1.  It was clear top RPR rated and had a good record at the track over the distance,  Its recent form, however, had not been good.  Despite the horse's previous past excellent performance at the track, the media press convinced me that Hello Me was a better bet (finished last).  The way my day went I didn't back anything yesterday, however, this has got me thinking that I have to find the correct balance between assuming that those horses at the front end of the market in a race will run better than those at the other end of the market, whilst, logically dismissing outsiders who do not appear to have a realistic chance of success.  Whilst it would be foolish to ignore favourites and those at the front end of the market in handicaps, in future, I will actively look for clues as to whether the longer-priced runners do indeed have just as much a live chance of winning the race as the main market leaders.

Not had much time once again to look at the races so far today.

I have placed a 1 point win on Boom The Groom in the 1.30 at Brighton at 4.6

Hopefully, I will find some time to look at other races later

Good luck to all punting today

[Bang on]

23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I was gobsmacked yesterday when I saw that A Sure Welcome won the 6.05 at Windsor at 9/1.  It was clear top RPR rated and had a good record at the track over the distance,  Its recent form, however, had not been good.  Despite the horse's previous past excellent performance at the track, the media press convinced me that Hello Me was a better bet (finished last).  The way my day went I didn't back anything yesterday, however, this has got me thinking that I have to find the correct balance between assuming that those horses at the front end of the market in a race will run better than those at the other end of the market, whilst, logically dismissing outsiders who do not appear to have a realistic chance of success.  Whilst it would be foolish to ignore favourites and those at the front end of the market in handicaps, in future, I will actively look for clues as to whether the longer-priced runners do indeed have just as much a live chance of winning the race as the main market leaders.

Not had much time once again to look at the races so far today.

I have placed a 1 point win on Boom The Groom in the 1.30 at Brighton at 4.6

Hopefully, I will find some time to look at other races later

Good luck to all punting today

A sure welcome was running off a 7lb lower handicap mark than it had won off in the last year. It had also fallen 10lb in its last 6 runs.

For me, the markets are nowhere near as reliable as they used to be. When the prices (and s.p.'s) were taken from the bookmakers in the betting ring, it was a useful tool watching the markets. Nowadays (since covid) the bookmakers set their own s.p.'s and there have been some very strange ones... a couple of weeks back I backed a selection at 9/1 just a minute or so before the off... it won at an s.p. of 9/2 .... that was bookmaker manipulation because of liabilities IMO.

[The Equaliser]

21 minutes ago, Bang on said:

A sure welcome was running off a 7lb lower handicap mark than it had won off in the last year. It had also fallen 10lb in its last 6 runs.

For me, the markets are nowhere near as reliable as they used to be. When the prices (and s.p.'s) were taken from the bookmakers in the betting ring, it was a useful tool watching the markets. Nowadays (since covid) the bookmakers set their own s.p.'s and there have been some very strange ones... a couple of weeks back I backed a selection at 9/1 just a minute or so before the off... it won at an s.p. of 9/2 .... that was bookmaker manipulation because of liabilities IMO.

Many thanks, but here's the quandary for me.  There is a 2.30 race at Brighton coming up.  As far as I can see Batchelor Boy should beat Verreaux Eagle by about 2 lengths based on their previous running at the same venue in April.  Verreaux Eagle is 4/1 favourite and you can get 9/1 in places for Batchelor Boy.  This horse is also the second choice in the Timeform verdict today.  I could have got 12.0 on the Betting Exchange but the market is suggesting that the horse will run like a donkey.  Somehow I couldn't bring myself to place the bet.  Hence, am I missing something here?

[yossa6133]

Gawd knows! I quite like Saffie Osbourne though and she's on the bottom weight, taking 3 off, will do for me (no money involved ?).

[azzybear]

freak out 3.15

[richard-westwood]

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

315 bev 

Qaasid   8.7 15.5 

Myrstika   8.6  3.1 

These 2 are a bit clear of rest so I'll try 2pt qaasid ...5pt myr  and 1pt reverse forecast 

Myrstika won cosily...small profit around 6.00 

[kensland]

Newton Abbot. 

5.10. Samba Dancer.         7/2..... unpl 

5.45. Hill Station                  5/2...... unpl 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by kensland

[richard-westwood]

740 newb 

Bell shot   8.0  8/1 

Op it      7.8   9/1

Stockpyle   7.4 

Tricky race but I'll try 2pt ew top 2 on a,quiet day 

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Whilst it would be foolish to ignore favourites and those at the front end of the market in handicaps, in future, I will actively look for clues as to whether the longer-priced runners do indeed have just as much a live chance of winning the race as the main market leaders.

@LEE-GRAYSpicks some cracking longshots, his selection in the £20 daily challenge has just won at 50/1 !

[richard-westwood]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

740 newb 

Bell shot   8.0  8/1 

Op it      7.8   9/1

Stockpyle   7.4 

Tricky race but I'll try 2pt ew top 2 on a,quiet day 

Bell shot wins .....opt it was in photo for 2nd ..jeez....has been given 3rd 

Approx +14.00 ...+20.00 on day actually that's wrong ....another 5 on top for the ew  so around +25.00 on day ...

Edited June 21, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Bang on]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks, but here's the quandary for me.  There is a 2.30 race at Brighton coming up.  As far as I can see Batchelor Boy should beat Verreaux Eagle by about 2 lengths based on their previous running at the same venue in April.  Verreaux Eagle is 4/1 favourite and you can get 9/1 in places for Batchelor Boy.  This horse is also the second choice in the Timeform verdict today.  I could have got 12.0 on the Betting Exchange but the market is suggesting that the horse will run like a donkey.  Somehow I couldn't bring myself to place the bet.  Hence, am I missing something here?

It was a very tricky race, to be honest, the racing post had every runner at single figure odds ( 9/2 - 9/1 )which means that even their odds compiler was struggling.

[The Equaliser]

2 minutes ago, Bang on said:

It was a very tricky race, to be honest, the racing post had every runner at single figure odds ( 9/2 - 9/1 )which means that even their odds compiler was struggling.

Many thanks for taking a peak.

Well done to @LEE-GRAYSand @richard-westwoodfor providing PL members with winners today