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Rugby Union Bets 2022

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Wow, first rugby bet posted on the forum this year barring the 6 Nations!

Lyon v Toulon: Ollivon to score a try at 8/1 and to score the 1st try at 35/1, both Lads

Had a quick look at the game as there's pretty much nothing else I'd bet on today. Hotshots well below my minimum price for considering a sell but there are no cheap buys to be had from what I can see.

Ollivon looks a bit big to me at those prices. 5s best elsewhere and shorter with the majority of firms.

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  • 4 weeks later...

England v Barbarians is the only shown in town today in terms of oval ball action in either code. A simple case of selling both teams' hotshots for me, England at 68 (Tommy Freeman, Joe Cokansiga, Joe Marchant, Jonny May) and Barbarians at 55 (Damien Penaud, Virimi Vakatawa, Levani Botia, Davit Niniashvili).

My indicative values would be 56.4 and 46.5 so a decent enough perceived edge on both bets. 5 tries is the virtual break even point (a 2 point loss to be precise) so hopefully the named players combine for less tries than that.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Well there's a 9 point arb on SA hotshots v Wales with SPIN going 50-54 but SX only 37-41. The players are (Warrick Gelant, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel and Aphelele Fassi) and my "true" value based on the try minutes quotes (which don't differ that much between the firms) is 40.7.

There's no rational explanation for the higher quote so it's a copper-bottomed sell IF you don't mind taking a bet that's one side of a chunky arb.

Similar scenario if less spectacular with the Wales quartet (Liam Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit, George North and Alex Cuthbert). SPIN go 30-34, SX 25-28, "true" price 26.5.

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