Rugby Union Bets 2022

[harry_rag]

Wow, first rugby bet posted on the forum this year barring the 6 Nations!

Lyon v Toulon: Ollivon to score a try at 8/1 and to score the 1st try at 35/1, both Lads

Had a quick look at the game as there's pretty much nothing else I'd bet on today. Hotshots well below my minimum price for considering a sell but there are no cheap buys to be had from what I can see.

Ollivon looks a bit big to me at those prices. 5s best elsewhere and shorter with the majority of firms.

[harry_rag]

England v Barbarians is the only shown in town today in terms of oval ball action in either code. A simple case of selling both teams' hotshots for me, England at 68 (Tommy Freeman, Joe Cokansiga, Joe Marchant, Jonny May) and Barbarians at 55 (Damien Penaud, Virimi Vakatawa, Levani Botia, Davit Niniashvili).

My indicative values would be 56.4 and 46.5 so a decent enough perceived edge on both bets. 5 tries is the virtual break even point (a 2 point loss to be precise) so hopefully the named players combine for less tries than that.

[harry_rag]

2 tries for each set of hotshots for a total make-up of 100 and a profit of 23 x stake. My "valuation" of 102.9 proving more accurate than the sell price of 123 on this occasion.

[harry_rag]

Well there's a 9 point arb on SA hotshots v Wales with SPIN going 50-54 but SX only 37-41. The players are (Warrick Gelant, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel and Aphelele Fassi) and my "true" value based on the try minutes quotes (which don't differ that much between the firms) is 40.7.

There's no rational explanation for the higher quote so it's a copper-bottomed sell IF you don't mind taking a bet that's one side of a chunky arb.

Similar scenario if less spectacular with the Wales quartet (Liam Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit, George North and Alex Cuthbert). SPIN go 30-34, SX 25-28, "true" price 26.5.

[harry_rag]

Sub Adams scores the only try of the game so both sets of hotshots make up at 0. 80 points profit if you'd sold both at apparently wrong prices.

[harry_rag]

The Women's Rugby World Cup gets underway tomorrow, with most of the games taking place in the early hours. England are 1/2 favourites and hard to oppose given that they're on a 25 game unbeaten run. Hosts New Zealand are 2/1 and the market expects those two teams to contest the final with France and Canada the likely losing semi finalists.

The Racing Post tipped New Zealand making a reasonable case for 2/1 being value given home advantage. I'm on them at 3.75 on BF. I think this is England's to lose but, at the price, I just about prefer New Zealand as a bet.

[harry_rag]

 New Zealand win so a 100% record for tips posted on the tournament! 

The market had the finalists and the losing semi finalists right but, perhaps, flattered England and under-estimated the hosts.