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Primeira Liga Predictions > May 13th - 15th


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Here are the odds and ratings for the final round of matches in the Portuguese Primeira Liga. Porto sealed the title last week with Sporting CP and Benfica predictably joining them in the Champions League next season. Relegation is still wide open heading into this last weekend of action though so give us your thoughts! :ok

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Paços de Ferreira vs SL Benfica

2022-05-13T21:15+02:00

 

Paços de Ferreira

Doubtful: Antunes (30/3 d), Gaitán (5/2 m), Delgado (30/2 f)

Out (injuries/other): Nuno Santos (31/5 m, 2nd top scorer, loan from Benfica), Maracás (24/0 d), Flávio Ramos (9/0 d), Jorge Silva (7/0 d), João Vigário (0/0 d), Koffi (3/0 f)

Suspended: Vekič (1/0 g), Zé Uilton (33/1 m)

 

SL Benfica

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Vlachodimos (32/0 first goalkeeper), Grimaldo (29/5 d), Otamendi (28/0 d), Lucas Veríssimo (10/3 d), Radonjić (6/0 m), Rafa (28/8 m), Everton (27/3 f), Seferović (10/3 f), Núñez (28/26 f, top scorer)

Suspended: Weigl (29/2 m), Gonçalo Ramos (29/7 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Interesting facts based only on statistics
SL Benfica scored at least one goal in 100% of away games.
SL Benfica scored at least two goals in 73% of away games.
62% chance that both Paços de Ferreira and SL Benfica will score in this game.
78% chance that there will be at least 1 goal in the first-half.
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Famalicao o2.75 @1.96
Min price to bet: o2.75 @1.90 or o3 @2.17
Model +value: no, negative
Significant team news: -
Note: Last round, Braga are completely isolated in 4th place, massive 14 pts ahead of 5th Gil Vicente and with 9 less than 3rd Benfica; while Famalicao are 13th, however in case of a win today they would actually move 5 places and finish the season in very good 8th. That is a good incentive for the hosts, who will remain in 13th in case of defeat or a draw, so only the win would matter. Both teams are in very good form, Famalicao unbeaten in 4, with 2 straight wins; Braga unbeaten in 7, 6-1-0 with Porto and Benfica victims of their good run as well (Porto's only defeat of the season), no goals conceded in last 5 league games (and 4 wins with just 1 goal scored in each!). Still, it is the hosts who should be more motivated today, not only to try to reach 8th place but also as this is their last home game of the season, so while Braga -1/4 210ish would be tempting earlier in the season, today it's really not, we fully expect their defence to concede - actually, this zero conceded goals streak is a bit lucky anyway, they were outperforming xGa heavily recently, and their last 5 games in general should've produced 1.4 more goals per game. Ok weather and good, relaxed game expected where the hosts should try to get the win that would move them 5 places in the standings, and their task could be easier if, as rumored, Braga's first choice gk Matheus gets a rest in this game.

Guimaraes o2.75 @1.96
Min price to bet: o2.75 @1.90 or o3 @2.17
Model +value: no, negative
Significant team news: - (cb Mumin suspended and winger Rochinha out injured for the hosts)
Note: Another friendly game in last round of Portugal, in this case both teams are locked in their curent positions, Guimaraes will finish in 6th, Gil Vicente in 5th place, the only thing that could change is points distance between them (6 pts at the moment). The hosts are pretty much where they were expected to be, the visitors for sure the biggest positive surprise of the season, and they were especially good on the road, only 2 defeats in last 3 games made their away record a bit more ordinary, but 7-6-3 is still superb and right behind the best 4 in Portugal. Ok weather and no pressure on teams, Guimaraes could be touch more motivated with this being their last home game of the season, however Gil Vicente are not expected to rotate much and this game should be a joy for neutrals, it usually is when these two meet: both teams have scored in each of last 7 h2h, all finished over 2.5 line, 5 of 7 ended over 3.5 line and 4 of 7 had both teams scoring at least twice. It's nice h2h for sure, and with this being the last game of the season, in which neither of the two can move up or down in the standings, another entertaining game is expected.

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