Premier League Predictions > May 10th - 12th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Check out the odds and ratings for the midweek matches coming up in the Premier League. A lot of issues to resolve at both ends of the table so let's hear your predictions for these games! 

[StevieDay1983]

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

It's back to the Premier League title race for us on Tuesday night as mid-table Aston Villa have the opportunity to be king makers as they host Liverpool in an 8pm BST kick-off at Villa Park. Anything but a win for the away side could leave the title on the brink of being retained by Manchester City but with the home team head coach managed by one of Merseyside's most famous sons, is it silly to assume anything other than a solid away win?

Aston Villa are looking to end their season on a high with the club in 11th place thanks to an unbeaten run of 3 league games consisting of 1 draw and 2 wins. Steve Gerrard now has the opportunity to all but end his home club's chances of winning the Premier League title here. Villa have a chance to win 3 league matches in a row for just the third time in the space of 9 seasons. The team have won just 2 of their last 8 home league matches. The defensive performances have improved greatly over the last few games with Villa conceding just 1 goal in their last 3 league outings. Striker OIlie Watkins bagged a hat-trick against Liverpool at this stadium last season when Villa prevailed as shock 7-2 winners.

Liverpool may well still be haunted by that devastating loss last season at Villa Park but they need to exorcise those demons if they want to try and stay in the title race. The Reds were held to a 1-1 draw at home against Tottenham on the weekend in a result that saw Manchester City move 3 points clear at the top after their 5-0 win at home to Newcastle. The Citizens are now 4 goals better off in the goal difference stakes as well so it's not looking great for Jurgen Klopp's side with three league games to go. Still, Liverpool are the only club in the top five leagues of Europe that are yet to suffer a league defeat during 2022. It's also 16 league games without a loss for the Merseysiders. There is a chance for Liverpool to equal their club Premier League record of 22 clean sheets in a single league campaign which was first set back in 2005/06. It's worth noting that Liverpool have won each of their 18 league games played against teams starting the game day in the bottom half of the league table this season.

I think it's widely assumed that the title is now Manchester City's to lose. It was before the Tottenham result for Liverpool anyway. Liverpool should win this game to earn a stay of execution (harsh metaphor given they are 2nd but you get what I mean!) but City are looking well set to win their remaining three league games. Liverpool can only keep on doing what they can to take it to the final day. Then who knows?!

Liverpool to Win to Nil @ 2.63 with Betfair

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.69 with VBet

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

Manchester City  @1.25

Over 2.75 @1.85

Analysis:

Manchester City will visit Molineux Stadium on Wednesday for the Premier League showdown with hosts Wolves.

 

Wolves

Wolves secured an unlikely point at Stamford Bridge on Saturday as two late goals cancelled out a quickfire Romelu Lukaku brace but, with games against Manchester City and Liverpool still to come, it is unlikely to be enough to bridge the gap between themselves and seventh-place West Ham. Wolverhampton has won 3 games, they have 1 game that the final result was a draw, and they have lost 6 games in the last 10 games.

 

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola’s team opened up a three-point gap at the top of the table in emphatic fashion on Sunday, thrashing Newcastle 5-0 as they start the healing process from yet another Champions League elimination. City may have lost in Madrid, but in the Premier League they are unbeaten in nine games and have won seven of those, scoring 26 goals in the process and conceding just four times.

[StevieDay1983]

Leeds vs Chelsea

The Premier League relegation battle could take another twist on Wednesday night with one of the bottom three in Leeds looking to claw their way out of the drop zone as they host Champions League qualification hopefuls Chelsea in a 7:30pm BST kick-off from Elland Road. The home team have now become many people's favourites to suffer the drop to the Championship but can they somehow seal a surprise win over the reigning FIFA Club World Cup champions?

Leeds had looked like they were going to move on up the table after Jesse Marsch led them to a 5-game unbeaten run but how quickly everything can start falling apart. The Whites are down in 18th place now and inside the relegation zone by virtue of goal difference. That is thanks for a 3-game winless streak and the 2-1 loss against Arsenal on the weekend saw key right back Luke Ayling ruled out for the season through suspension after getting a straight red for a needless lunge on Gabriel Martinelli. This is one of their three remaining games and you have to argue that it's the one they least expect to get 3 points in. The club have conceded 34 goals at home already this season which is their worst top flight tally since 1960. It's also 10 home league games without keeping a clean sheet. The worse news is that they have lost all 11 league games played so far against teams positioned in the top six.

Chelsea have realistically done enough to qualify for next season's Champions League with the club in 3rd position and 5 points inside the top four but finishing in the top three will be a target for the Blues. Local rivals Arsenal are now just 1 point behind Thomas Tuchel's men. Recent league form hasn't been overly great for Chelsea who are winless in their last 3 league games including failing to win back-to-back away league games. The team have been free-scoring this season bagging 70 goals in the league which is their highest tally since their title-winning campaign of 2016/17. A running problem this season for Chelsea has been throwing away their leads with the team dropping 20 points from winning positions.

It is no win in the last 7 meetings for Leeds against Chelsea and it'll be a tall order for them to break that dry spell. Chelsea have won just 5 of their last 46 away games in the league against Leeds but we should remember that the two sides haven't met many times since Chelsea moved up a level in terms of their financial strength. So that statistic should be taken with a pinch of salt. I think the pressure, player absentees, and low morale will hamper Leeds. You could see things getting to the players against Arsenal and I think Chelsea will dissect that to win.

Chelsea HT/FT @ 2.78 with SBK

BTTS @ 1.69 with SBK

[StevieDay1983]

Leicester vs Norwich

It's hard to generate any real excitement about this 7:45pm BST kick-off on Wednesday evening between mid-table Leicester and already-relegated Norwich at the King Power Stadium. The home side can't go down or qualify for European competition next season and the away team have already been condemned to playing in the Championship next year. It should make for quite the dead rubber encounter!

Leicester will look back upon this season and wonder what could have been had their campaign not been so badly hit by injuries. The fact they did suffer so many key injuries and still finished comfortably mid-table and also reached the Europa Conference League Semi-Finals then that can't be too bad for Brendan Rodgers' men. The Foxes are in 14th position and are without a win in their last 5 Premier League games. Home form has remained solid all season though and the 2-1 loss to relegation battlers Everton on the weekend was just the team's second home league defeat of the season. Jamie Vardy could be a shout for anytime scorer having bagged 21 goals in his last 14 Premier League appearances against newly promoted teams.

Norwich had the opportunity to play with freedom now they know relegation is confirmed but their display in the 4-0 home loss to West Ham suggested they are a group of players who are shot of self-belief, motivation, and ability. The Canaries are still rock bottom of the top flight after 4 defeats in a row and failing to even score in their most recent 3 league outings. Dean Smith's side have conceded a division-high 75 goals in the league this season and they are now just 2 goals short of their worst top flight defensive record of 77 goals conceded which came back in 2004/05. Their only away wins this season have come against fellow newly promoted teams Brentford and Watford. They have lost 12 of their other 15 away league matches.

It's fair to say that it's difficult to find an argument to back Norwich to get anything from this game. Leicester are unbeaten in each of their three home Premier League games played against Norwich. The gap in quality and morale between these two sides is massive and I think we could see Leicester take a big win. I'm not really sure how Norwich turn this dour run around.

Leicester HT/FT @ 2.20 with Bet365

First Goalscorer: Jamie Vardy @ 4.33 with Bet365

[StevieDay1983]

Watford vs Everton

Two of the bottom four teams in the Premier League go toe-to-toe on Wednesday night in the Premier League in this 7:45pm BST kick-off between already-relegated Watford and a rejuvenated Everton at Vicarage Road. The home side are now simply playing for pride against an away team that know they need to win in order to improve their chances of survival in the top flight.

Watford seemingly haven't learned lessons of years gone by and the team will once again fall back down to the Championship. Head coach Roy Hodgson is leaving at the end of the season and you'd imagine so will his coaching staff. You also have to wonder how many of the first team squad will stay with the Hornets for next season in the second tier. Will the likes of Ismaila Sarr, Emmanuel Dennis, and William Troost-Ekong still be there? It's now 11 straight home league defeats for Watford which is a top flight record. The club have also now lost 6 league games in a row which is their worst run since 1973. Defensive frailties have plagued their season and it's now 22 top flight home games in a row without a clean sheet being kept. On the optimistic side, if you want an anytime scorer then Josh King has scored 8 goals in 10 Premier League games against Everton down the years.

Everton were looking in deep trouble just a few league games ago but the Toffees have managed to lose just 1 of their last 5 league matches including winning back-to-back league games to move up to 16th place in the table and 1 point above the relegation zone with a game in hand. Frank Lampard is just about doing enough to turn things around but there's still three crucial games left to play. The bottom line is that the team will stay up if they win 2 of their last 3 league games. If results go their way, they might even have done enough already. The 2-1 win over Leicester last weekend ended a 15-game winless spell away from home in the league. However, they have conceded in each of their last 18 away league matches. 

It seems a lifetime ago that Watford beat Everton 5-2 at Goodison Park earlier in the season in one of the lowest points of the season for the Merseyside club. Watford are now destined for the Championship but can they suck Everton down with them? Watford showed a bit of fight in the 1-0 loss to Crystal Palace on the weekend so they might pose some problems for Everton here but you can see the fight and determination returning to this Everton side. Have they got enough about them to get the win though? I'm not sure but I'm simply not willing to back Watford right now!

Everton to Win & BTTS @ 3.75 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.00 with SBK

[StevieDay1983]

Wolves vs Manchester City

This is the big one on Wednesday night where the Premier League title race could move closer to being decided. It's Europa Conference League contenders Wolves hosting league leaders Manchester City in an 8pm BST kick-off at Molineux. The situation is simple. If the away side win then the league title is one big step closer to being retained by the Manchester club. Anything less and not only do the home team boost their European qualification hopes but Liverpool are let back into the title picture.

Wolves will be buzzing after snatching a dramatic late 2-2 draw away to Chelsea last weekend to end a losing run of 3 league games where they didn't even manage to score. Bruno Lage's side are now in 8th position and 5 points behind West Ham who currently occupy the Europa Conference League qualification spot. The team is in a position to try and equal the club record of 16 Premier League wins in a single season. Unfortunately, Wolves have only managed to score 1 goal in their 8 home league games against teams in the top half of the table.

Manchester City know what they have to do. A victory here will put them 3 points ahead of Liverpool and with a superior goal difference with just 2 league games remaining. A draw would also keep them ahead of the Reds on points but a loss would pull the teams level and mean goal difference suddenly becomes a huge factor. Pep Guardiola sent a huge statement out to the rest of the league this week by confirming the signing of Borussia Dortmund starlet Erling Haaland for £55 million. The Citizens are on a club record streak of 16 Premier League away games without loss. City have also scored 3 or more goals in each of their last 4 league matches played. They have also conceded just 8 goals in their 17 away league games this season.

It's hard to see Manchester City dropping points in any of their remaining three league games the way they are playing. That said, they are up against a Wolves team that have taken points off them in 4 of the last 8 meetings but those came when Wanderers were managed by Nuno Espirito Santo and it's actually been 3 wins in a row for City in this fixture. I think they'll get the job done here and will move towards retaining that league title.

Manchester City HT/FT @ 1.89 with SBK

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.73 with SBK

[StevieDay1983]

Tottenham vs Arsenal

The Premier League dishes up a massive North London Derby on Thursday night as Tottenham play Arsenal in a 7:45pm BST kick-off from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The situation is rather clear. If the home team win then they really put the pressure on their local rivals for that elusive 4th placed spot but if the away side get the victory then they will confirm their place in next season's Champions League.

Tottenham are expected to stick with the starting line-up that ground out a 1-1 draw away to title contenders Liverpool and it shows that head coach Antonio Conte is keen to find some consistency and stability within his team. Spurs are in 5th place and 4 points behind Arsenal having won just 1 of their last 4 league matches. Home form has remained relatively solid though with Tottenham winning 4 of their previous 5 home league games. It's impressive to read that in each of those four wins they have scored at least 3 goals. Both Harry Kane and Son Heung-min would be fair shouts for anytime scorers here with Kane being the all-time record scorer in North London Derby matches with 11 goals and Son scoring 3 goals in his last 4 matches against Arsenal.

Arsenal know exactly what needs to be done here and they could inflict misery on Tottenham in their own back yard with a win. Even a draw would still leave the Gunners in a firm advantage. Mikel Arteta's side have re-discovered their decent form at just the right time with the team winning 4 league games in a row. Three of those wins have come against teams in the top 7 in the league table. You can argue the defence needs tightening up with Arsenal now failing to keep a clean sheet in their last 7 league games. Striker Eddie Nketiah is seemingly now fulfilling his potential having scored 4 goals in his last 4 league games for the club. The duo of Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe have the chance to make history and become the first English man since Ian Wright back in 1993/94 to score home and away against Tottenham in a single season.

It's interesting to read that Tottenham haven't lost any of their last 7 home league games against Arsenal but Conte himself has only managed a win percentage of 11% against Arsenal during his time as a manager in the Premier League. This is a really tough one to call and even though I think Arsenal have got fourth placed tied up I just feel that Tottenham could bag a win here if Conte's dogged game plan works as well as it did against Liverpool. Sit back and pounce on Arsenal with counter attacks and Tottenham could get the win but you can't write Arsenal off right now in their current form so a cautious draw seems the best option.

Draw @ 3.60 with SpreadEx

BTTS @ 1.72 with SBK