dejann Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 Toulouse o3 @2.05 Min price to bet: o3 @1.87 or o3.25 @2.15 Model +value: yes Significant team news: league's top scorer cf Healey out inj for Toulouse Note: Toulouse have clinched promotion a couple of rounds ago and with a win here they would be crowned Ligue 2 champions, which is also a target now. Nimes are in mid-table and have nothing to worry about, so even if Toulouse have achieved their main target, it is the hosts who have the motivational edge in this game; and it's not just for the Fra2 title, but also to celebrate it in front of their own fans, as this is their last home game of the season. Realistically, draw will do it for Toulouse as their goal diff is so much better than Ajaccio's, but in case the Corsicans win at Grenoble, it would still prolong official crowning for one week. With all that in mind, we have also considered Toulouse hcap here, current -1.5 @1.96ish looks ok, it's actually fine for model (75%, wb1 21%) even without added motive-factor; but we're reluctant to go with 2 picks for this one, and TG seems like a 'cleaner' choice, even for model. Nimes have scored in each of last 4, they have won 3 in a row and even if last week's 3-1 at Nancy was completely against the run of play, it's obvious that freedom they have since clinching survival suits them well. Toulouse had a brilliant season, offensively they are probably one of the best Fra2 teams ever, their league-high 80 goals scored (2.2 per game!! unheard of in Ligue 2) is massive 23 more than the next best; and while they have slowed down a bit in last few weeks, we expect them to put on a show in this last home game of the season. Ok weather. Dijon o2.75 @2.09 Min price to bet: o2.75 @2.03 or o2.5 @1.83 Model +value: yes Significant team news: Note: Ok weather, another friendly game here, mid-table Dijon against relegated Nancy. The hosts are enjoying these last few weeks with more relaxed approach, each of their last 5 games finished with at least 3 goals scored and there was a total of 20 for massive 4.0 gpg; while the visitors are coming of one of their better performances of the season, as they outplayed and out-chanced Nimes, only to lose the game 1-3, completely against the run of play. It was a truly good Nancy performance, they have created numerous opportunities, big chances, wasted them all thanks to combination of some superb goalkeeping, lack of focus and bad luck as they hit the bar early on as well - really really should've been a couple of goals up in the first half, but lost it with Nimes scoring from their first effort in dying minutes, that wasn't even a half-chance. Second half was more open but it was still Nancy who were dominating and certainly deserved more from the game. Encouraging performance, and we def expect them to play in same style here, which would guarantee good game dynamics and plenty of action and chances. TG 3.00+ here, a touch higher than model, but good confidence in it, in fact we would have no complaints for 3.10-3.15 either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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