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La Liga Predictions > Apr 29th - May 2nd


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Sevilla FC vs Cádiz CF

2022-04-29T21:00+02:00

 

Sevilla FC

Doubtful: Suso (8/0 m), Corona (13/2 f)

Out (injuries/other): Rekik (16/0 d), Fernando (24/1 m), Martial (8/0 f)

Suspended: Rafa Mir (30/9 f, top scorer)

 

Cádiz CF

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Haroyan (17/1 d), Alcaraz (11/2 m), Andone (5/0 f)

Suspended:

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Over/Under Goals
Sevilla FC
16 home games
Cádiz CF
16 away games
81% Over 1.5 goals 69%
56% Over 2.5 goals 44%
38% Over 3.5 goals 25%
19% Over 4.5 goals 6%
13% Over 5.5 goals 6%
19% Under 1.5 goals 31%
44% Under 2.5 goals 56%
88% Over 0.5 goals at half-time 75%
56% Over 1.5 goals at half-time 38%
19% Over 2.5 goals at half-time 13%
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Villarreal -1/4 @1.90 & o2.5 @2.05

Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.80 or -1/2 @2.06; o2.5 @2.00

Model +value: yes

Significant team news: - (this game is sandwiched between Villarreal's CL semifinal games against Liverpool, so heavy rotation for the visitors expected)

Note: Ok, Alaves badly need to win this, they are massive 7 pts adrift of safety with only 5 rounds to go. Villareal have their game of the season on Tue, return leg vs Liverpool, but their chances for CL final are very low after 2-0 defeat in the first leg, against a team that is miles ahead of them anyway. Still, Emery will likely do something similar to what he did a few weeks ago when he made 11 changes to the starting lineup vs Bilbao, before CL 1/4 finals return leg with Bayern. There were 7-8 changes in the lineup vs Getafe as well, that was a game after return leg in Munchen and before midweek game v Valencia; so in tight schedule spot. In those 2 games, Villarreal played 1-1 v Bilbao and won 2-1 at Getafe, this 2nd game was quite impressive actually, and the truth is that Villarreal's 2nd 11 would still be in top 10 in Primera. The visitors' heads may be focused elsewhere, but the changes that Emery will make should actually help the team and we make them 51.5-52% to win tomorrow. If this game was played a few weeks ago and without CL distraction, we would have Villarreal close to 60, around 58.5-59%, so this is quite a deduction. TG overs also look ok, model is very high and Alaves just can not live with a draw here, neither should Villarreal if they want to catch a train for UEL, which is certainly better than UECL. We would go with 2.80 as min, and also, quite an interesting h2h regarding goals here - all of last 10 between the two went over 2.5 line, with both teams scoring in 9 of 10. Ok weather.

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Celta dnb @1.86 & o2.25 @1.90

Min price to bet: dnb @1.80 or -1/4 @2.15; o2.25 @1.87 or o2.5 @2.16

Model +value: yes

Significant team news: The hosts with problems in defence, first choice cbs Duarte and Diaz and rb Quini are all suspended, lb/lwb Neva and cb Torrente Navarro still out injured

Note: Ok weather in Granada, the hosts could be a touch more motivated here, but Celta are not completely safe yet and we expect them to be focused. Granada managed to scrape out a 0-0 draw against Pathetico Madrid in last league game, in which they faced 22 shots, but 21 went off the target! Their defence will be a lot different tomorrow, as 3 of their starting back 4 from that game are suspended; and they actually have 4 out of starting back 5 unavailable here (when they go with 5 at the back). Not good, not against talented Celta attack, and we make the visitors 43-43.5% tomorrow, with TG at 2.65+, both likes are at about same level, no real pref between the two picks.

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