Poisson over2.5??

[iroquois]

Flat bet=1 unit

Using poisson to bet on goals?...its not new.

All bets are making under the prospect of value!

Game		%	Odd	Value
Tottenham	Brighton	83%	1,94	61,02%
lyngby	horsens	71%	1,95	38,45%
sepsi	uta arad	61%	2,35	43,35%
cukaricki	backa topola	61%	1,85	12,85%
toulouse	quevilly r.	74%	1,67	23,58%
alyanospor	antalyaspor	71%	1,87	32,77%
tuzla	borac banja	68%	1,65	12,20%
dortmund	wolfsburg	76%	1,57	19,32%
mainz	Stuttgart	61%	1,95	18,95%
Southampton	arsenal	68%	1,80	22,40%
shaktar	bate	81%	1,85	49,85%
mladosti l.	proleter	65%	2,05	33,25%
jaggielonia	pogon	65%	1,91	24,15%
Zurich	young boys	81%	1,60	29,60%
crevna zvezda	partizan	81%	2,40	94,40%
narva trans	paidde	74%	1,61	19,14%
zrinski	sarajevo	89%	2,10	86,90%

[iroquois]

[iroquois]

Game		%	Odd	Value
Federicia	helsingor	86%	1,60	37,60%
sturm graz	rapid vienna	79%	1,71	35,09%
At madrid	espanol	71%	1,89	34,19%
plezen	ostrava	81%	1,90	53,90%
sevilla	R. madrid	61%	1,96	19,56%
Sporting?	benfica	79%	1,88	48,52%

[iroquois]

Game		%	Odd	Value
Federicia	helsingor	86%	1,60	37,60%
sturm graz	rapid vienna	79%	1,71	35,09%
At madrid	espanol	71%	1,89	34,19%
plezen	ostrava	81%	1,90	53,90%
sevilla	R. madrid	61%	1,96	19,56%
Sporting?	benfica	79%	1,88	48,52%

[iroquois]

Game		%	Odd	Value
Frederickstad	start	88%	1,50	32,00%
japs	jaro	91%	1,57	42,87%
plymouth	sunderland	61%	1,95	18,95%
port vale	bristol r.	65%	2,30	49,50%
sion	basel	65%	1,61	4,65%
dalkurk	halmestad	76%	1,95	48,20%
molde	lillestrom	76%	1,50	14,00%
odd	viking	74%	1,61	19,14%
napoli	roma	65%	1,85	20,25%
vikingur	Fh	84%	1,67	40,28%

Edited April 18, 2022 by iroquois

[alexcaruso808]

Good luck with your bets.  ?

[FixedOdds]

Hi, new on here but a long time punter on footy.

As I'm sure you are aware, goals are scored in approx. 92+% of matches, thus if you are placing bets on this market (over 0.5) you're winning most of the time. However, the odds are [email protected] probably on avg. You might break even in any given season or win/lose a small bit depending on staking plan.

To get 1.17 you are obviously placing bets that will remain open once the market kicks off. The majority of bets will not be matched but some always do. I don't try and predict this outcome because when analysing historic data in Excel I really couldn't find any pattern. I arrived at 1.17 minimum after crunching the numbers with the caveat that if the sp is 1.09 or above, then I'm looking for 1.25+. An sp of 1.09+ is very high for the 0.5 market.

I don't know anyone who likes a bet, but it's a reasonably big part of my life - in the sense that I think about it quite a lot. I don't bet to make money, I just like doing it and treat sort of like an intellectual challenge...kind of  hence I decided to post this.

It's April 22 and I have averaged a ROI of approx. 12% every week (that I've bet) this year. It's working incredibly well this year, it's not always been like this. My theory on that is that VAR and the ludicrous "contact" laws in the game now are producing so many goals.

 

The DapperNapper