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Poisson over2.5??

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Flat bet=1 unit

Using poisson to bet on goals?...its not new.

All bets are making under the prospect of value!

Game % Odd Value
Tottenham Brighton 83% 1,94 61,02%
lyngby horsens 71% 1,95 38,45%
sepsi uta arad 61% 2,35 43,35%
cukaricki backa topola 61% 1,85 12,85%
toulouse quevilly r. 74% 1,67 23,58%
alyanospor antalyaspor 71% 1,87 32,77%
tuzla borac banja 68% 1,65 12,20%
dortmund wolfsburg 76% 1,57 19,32%
mainz Stuttgart 61% 1,95 18,95%
Southampton arsenal 68% 1,80 22,40%
shaktar bate 81% 1,85 49,85%
mladosti l. proleter 65% 2,05 33,25%
jaggielonia pogon 65% 1,91 24,15%
Zurich young boys 81% 1,60 29,60%
crevna zvezda partizan 81% 2,40 94,40%
narva trans paidde 74% 1,61 19,14%
zrinski sarajevo 89% 2,10 86,90%
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Game % Odd Value
Frederickstad start 88% 1,50 32,00%
japs jaro 91% 1,57 42,87%
plymouth sunderland 61% 1,95 18,95%
port vale bristol r. 65% 2,30 49,50%
sion basel 65% 1,61 4,65%
dalkurk halmestad 76% 1,95 48,20%
molde lillestrom 76% 1,50 14,00%
odd viking 74% 1,61 19,14%
napoli roma 65% 1,85 20,25%
vikingur Fh 84% 1,67 40,28%
Edited by iroquois
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Hi, new on here but a long time punter on footy.

As I'm sure you are aware, goals are scored in approx. 92+% of matches, thus if you are placing bets on this market (over 0.5) you're winning most of the time. However, the odds are cr@p...1.06 probably on avg. You might break even in any given season or win/lose a small bit depending on staking plan.

To get 1.17 you are obviously placing bets that will remain open once the market kicks off. The majority of bets will not be matched but some always do. I don't try and predict this outcome because when analysing historic data in Excel I really couldn't find any pattern. I arrived at 1.17 minimum after crunching the numbers with the caveat that if the sp is 1.09 or above, then I'm looking for 1.25+. An sp of 1.09+ is very high for the 0.5 market.

I don't know anyone who likes a bet, but it's a reasonably big part of my life - in the sense that I think about it quite a lot. I don't bet to make money, I just like doing it and treat sort of like an intellectual challenge...kind of ;) hence I decided to post this.

It's April 22 and I have averaged a ROI of approx. 12% every week (that I've bet) this year. It's working incredibly well this year, it's not always been like this. My theory on that is that VAR and the ludicrous "contact" laws in the game now are producing so many goals.


The DapperNapper 

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