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Football ratings systems.


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I haven't really thought too much about betting systems for football. I would normally look at each teams performance on Flash Score and go from there. 

I am doing some research and found a site called Since a Win. They have an article about rating games by allocating points to goals in previous games. They also talk about the Elo ratings

 

The thing that confused me is their talk of a "match rating".  What is a match rating and how will it give me an indication on who to put my money on? I thought that individual ratings for each team would be better? 

 

I think @StevieDay1983 is a footy ratings expert, maybe?  Can you help me? @harry_rag, do you use ratings for footy? 

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Not really a ratings guy, more a "use the spread prices as a starting point as too lazy to formulate my own ratings" guy historically! :)

I did (years ago) play about with footy ratings using those in the RFO and had a stab at my own rugby league/union ratings, but all very amateurish.

Did you click through to the "my next post" link in that article? It might explain more. Basically, each game appears to have a rating and the higher the number is, the stronger favourite the home team is (looks like his example table shows the top 11 rated and 13 of the top 15 all won, the ones in green). The bigger negative number, the more favoured the away team is. So +300 might be City at home to Norwich while -200 might be the reverse fixture.

Whether he goes on to convert his ratings into probabilities I'm not sure.

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Posted (edited)

Yeah, I had a look at his other articles, but was none the wiser! 

The idea of positive numbers for home teams, and negative for away teams makes sense ?

He doesn't convert the ratings into probabilities, but maybe there is a way to do that by using the odds.....?   ?

FWIW, I think the Elo ratings on the site here are pretty hard to beat. I would like to come up with my own method and use them in conjunction. 

Edited by alexcaruso808
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